Key Takeaways

• RKLB shares have declined approximately 30% from late-May highs, now hovering near $107.98
• First quarter revenue reached an all-time high of $200.35 million, representing a 63.4% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst projections
• The company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index on June 22, potentially increasing institutional buying pressure
• Institutional investors now hold 71.78% of shares, with Capital Impact Advisors increasing its position by 47.5%
• Analyst consensus shows a “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target of $102.76

Since SpaceX’s highly anticipated public offering, Rocket Lab has experienced significant downward pressure, with shares declining roughly 30% from their late-May peak of approximately $151.00. Trading opened Thursday at $107.98, maintaining a position above the 50-day moving average of $104.00 while remaining considerably below recent peaks.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

The stock decline contrasts sharply with the company’s operational performance. First quarter revenue reached $200.35 million, establishing a new quarterly record and representing a robust 63.4% increase compared to the prior year period. This figure exceeded Wall Street’s consensus forecast of $189.65 million.

Gross profit margins also achieved a company record at 38.2% during Q1, demonstrating enhanced operational efficiency as the business expands. With a contract backlog totaling $2.2 billion, Rocket Lab maintains substantial revenue visibility extending well into future quarters.

Executive guidance indicates another record-breaking performance expected for Q2, extending a pattern that indicates the company is experiencing sustained growth momentum rather than temporary revenue spikes.

Government Contracts Expanding Revenue Streams

Beyond its core launch operations, Rocket Lab has been strategically expanding into defense sector opportunities. The company secured a substantial $515 million contract from the Space Development Agency in 2024 for satellite manufacturing, establishing Rocket Lab’s position as a primary contractor for U.S. government space initiatives.

Additionally, a $30 million agreement with Anduril Industries was finalized to deploy its HASTE launch vehicle for hypersonic testing missions from Virginia’s Launch Complex 2. These defense-oriented contracts are strategically diversifying the company’s revenue profile beyond traditional commercial small-satellite launch services.

The Electron rocket maintains its position as the globe’s most frequently launched small orbital vehicle, conducting approximately 10–15 missions annually. Its closest competitor in the small-launch market segment is Galactic Energy’s Ceres-1 rocket.

Recent developments include the announcement of the company’s largest block-purchase agreement to date — five Neutron rocket missions secured before the vehicle has completed its maiden flight.

Index Addition and Growing Institutional Ownership

Rocket Lab’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index takes effect on June 22. This milestone represents a potentially significant catalyst, as index additions typically generate automatic purchasing activity from passive investment funds that track the benchmark.

Capital Impact Advisors expanded its holdings by 47.5% during the fourth quarter, acquiring an additional 145,741 shares to reach a total position of 452,728 units. Institutional investors collectively control 71.78% of outstanding shares.

Regarding insider transactions, SVP Arjun Kampani divested 23,804 shares at $147.43 on May 28, while insider Marvin Bradford Clevenger sold 3,500 shares at $146.67 during the same session. Company insiders have collectively sold $66.9 million in stock over the preceding 90-day period.

Valuation metrics present challenges for investors. The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of approximately 68x, exceeding the sector median by more than 3,500%. Such elevated multiples are generally associated with high-margin software enterprises rather than hardware-focused companies operating at 38% gross margins.

The Neutron medium-lift rocket, which appears to be significantly factored into current valuation levels, has yet to complete its inaugural launch. A recent propellant tank testing setback has delayed the maiden flight to Q4 2026, maintaining execution uncertainty.

TD Cowen and Needham both elevated their price objectives to $120 with Buy recommendations following the Q1 earnings release. KGI Securities launched coverage on June 11 with a Neutral stance and a $105 price target. The average analyst target currently stands at $102.76.

Bitcoin has fallen nearly 3% toward $63,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and reduced expectations for short-term rate cuts.

According to U.S. Department of Labor data, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 for the week ended June 13, down from a revised 230,000 in the prior week.

The report arrived one day after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 FOMC meeting, marking a fourth consecutive pause while policymakers projected the possibility of additional tightening in 2026. The outlook prompted traders to reduce exposure to risk assets.

Oil markets have offered little support despite crude prices retreating sharply following reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran framework agreement. While lower energy prices could ease inflation concerns, traders remain focused on the Fed’s latest projections and the resilience of the U.S. labor market.

Derivatives markets also turned defensive. Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $64,000 as leveraged long positions were flushed out across major exchanges, while traders reassessed the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. At the same time, continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.81 million, a detail that offered some evidence of labor market weakness but failed to offset the market’s reaction to lower headline jobless claims.

Bitcoin loses ascending channel support as sellers target lower liquidity zones

The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin breaking below the lower boundary of an ascending channel that had guided price action higher since the June 5 rebound from near $59,000. The breakdown occurred just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $64,950, a zone that previously acted as support during the recent recovery attempt.

The next major support sits near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $62,400. A daily close below that area could expose the June low near $59,175, which also represents the measured downside target from the channel failure.

Momentum indicators have weakened alongside the breakdown. The RSI on the four-hour chart has dropped toward 38, placing it below neutral territory, while the MACD has produced a bearish crossover and shifted deeper into negative territory.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has also formed a bearish flag after its rebound from the June low near $59,175 stalled below the $67,000-$68,000 resistance zone. A confirmed breakdown from the flag would strengthen the bearish case and put the $60,000-$59,175 support area back in focus.

The Chaikin Money Flow remains below zero at roughly -0.12, showing capital continues to leave the market despite last week’s rebound attempt.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass highlights a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $63,000 and $63,500. Additional liquidity rests near $61,000 and $62,000, while significant short liquidation zones remain overhead around $65,000 and $66,500. With Bitcoin trading directly into a concentration of long leverage, volatility could remain elevated during the next several sessions.

Commenting on the recent breakdown, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa warned that Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 region in the coming days if the current support area gives way.

Break below $62K could open the door to a retest of June lows

Analysts are increasingly focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the current support region. According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, the market is approaching a pivotal level that could determine the next directional move.

“This is the level that needs to be held for BTC. It’s pivotal. If it doesn’t, we’ll test the lows and markets are about to fall some more on the Altcoins.”

A sustained move below $62,400 would strengthen the bearish case and increase the probability of a retest of the June low near $59,000. Beyond technical factors, another upside surprise in inflation data or additional hawkish commentary from Fed officials could further reduce expectations for policy easing and add pressure across crypto markets.

For bulls, reclaiming the broken channel support and recovering the $64,950-$66,700 area would be the first sign that sellers are losing control. Until then, traders remain focused on downside liquidity zones as Bitcoin struggles to stabilize following the Fed meeting and stronger-than-expected labor market data.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1750.15, down 0.9% (-15.97) since 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Three of 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: XLM (+10%) and HBAR (+0.2%).

Laggards: ICP (-4.1%) and SUI (-4%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

The Ethereum Foundation’s (EF) co-executive director Hsiao-Wei Wang shared that she has stepped down from her role leading the organization effective immediately, in a post shared on X on Thursday.

Wang reached the decision after a recent sabbatical, which gave her time to reflect on her priorities and future plans. “I’ve come to feel that this is the right moment for me to step back,” she wrote.

Her departure follows the resignation of fellow co-executive director Tomasz Stańczak, who announced earlier this year that he would leave the role after helping steer a leadership transition at the Switzerland-based nonprofit that supports Ethereum’s ecosystem development.

During Wang’s sabbatical, Ethereum Foundation board member Bastian Aue helped oversee the leadership transition and has taken on a larger role in guiding the organization in the interim following the departures of both co-executive directors.

Wang’s exit adds to a period of upheaval at the Ethereum Foundation. At least eight senior figures have departed the organization over the past five months, fueling community scrutiny of the EF’s priorities, governance, and strategic direction, as Ethereum faces mounting competition from rival blockchains.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin remains vulnerable as hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent ETF demand continue to dampen investor sentiment.
• With BTC trading below key moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish. 

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.

The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading across financial markets after the Fed signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve maintains rates but adopts hawkish tone

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets were focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections.

The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. Policymakers now project the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, following:

The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Should ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Bitcoin price outlook: Relief bounce shows signs of weakness

Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by renewed buying demand.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.

BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.

The failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights persistent overhead selling pressure.

Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that recent rebounds may be corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

If Bitcoin attempts a rebound, traders will likely focus on several major resistance zones. The first major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day EMA

A move above these levels would be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.

The win rate of a cycle-aware approach is lower than buy-and-hold, winning not by being right more often, but by avoiding the months when bitcoin loses 20%, 30%, or 40%. Those months cluster, and stepping aside during them is not timing the market; it is about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.

We have made three public, timestamped market calls since 2022: the October 2022 cycle bottom, the July 2023 projection of a $125,000 target and the October 2025 bear signal, each grounded in the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, auditable and structurally better suited to bitcoin’s cyclical nature than the passive approach most advisors currently deploy.

Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisors who treat it like any other asset are leaving risk-adjusted returns on the table and exposing clients to drawdowns that, in practice, end portfolios rather than weather them.

– Markus Thielen, CEO, 10x Research

Ask an Expert

If blockchain technology succeeds, are investors owning the right things?

For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. Increasingly, I’m not convinced that’s always true. Technology can become indispensable while value accrues elsewhere to sequencers, applications, stablecoin issuers or liquidity layers.

A Strategy director has sold nearly $9 million worth of company shares over the past three months as pressure on the firm’s preferred stock offerings and concerns over future dividend funding continue to weigh on MSTR.

According to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy director Jarrod Patten exercised options to acquire 1,500 Class A shares at a strike price of $18.236 and immediately sold them on the open market at roughly $134 per share, generating a profit of around $200K.

The transaction adds to a steady pattern of insider selling. SEC filings show Patten has disposed of 55,750 MSTR shares during the last three months, with total proceeds approaching $9 million. His latest sale comes as Strategy stock remains under pressure following a sharp decline in both Bitcoin and the company’s preferred securities.

Following the transaction, Patten still holds 28,406 Class A shares, positions across several Series A perpetual preferred stock offerings, and 44,250 unexercised director stock options.

Dividend concerns have moved into focus

Attention has increasingly shifted toward Strategy’s ability to support dividend obligations tied to its preferred stock products.

According to market maker QCP, Strategy’s current liquidity position can fund dividend payments for roughly seven and a half months. 

As crypto.news reported, QCP said the company could eventually face a decision between raising additional capital, diluting shareholders further, or selling Bitcoin if alternative funding sources become less attractive.

The concern emerged shortly after Strategy completed several balance-sheet transactions. QCP noted that the company repurchased nearly $1.5 billion of convertible notes due in 2029 while raising approximately $200 million through MSTR stock sales. Part of those proceeds was later used to acquire another $100 million worth of Bitcoin.

Investor attention has also centered on Strategy’s preferred securities. STRC, the company’s Stretch preferred stock, recently fell to a record low of $89, leaving it about 11% below its intended $100 value and increasing scrutiny of the firm’s capital structure.

Earlier this month, Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.5 million to fund STRC dividend payments. The transaction marked the first known Bitcoin sale by the company after years of maintaining a strict accumulation strategy.

Analyst targets remain unchanged despite weakness

Selling activity by company insiders has continued throughout 2026. Earlier filings showed Chief Executive Officer Phong Le, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang, and former Executive Vice President Wei-Ming Shao collectively sold millions of dollars’ worth of MSTR shares in March. Kang and Patten reduced their holdings as the stock weakened despite record highs in major U.S. equity indexes.

MSTR closed 5.09% lower at $116.56 on Wednesday as risk assets weakened after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% while signaling potential tightening risks for 2026. The stock extended its decline on Thursday, falling another 2.1% to $114.04. With those losses, MSTR is now down roughly 31% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $63,850 at press time after dropping nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.

Despite the recent decline, analysts at TD Cowen, Citigroup, Bernstein, and BTIG have maintained their existing bullish ratings on MSTR shares. Bernstein analysts reiterated a buy rating and kept a 12-month price target of $450, while TD Cowen targets $350, Citigroup holds at $260, and BTIG maintains a target of $250.