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Is $1,500 Next for ETH After the ‘Aggressive Deleveraging’?

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Is $1,500 Next for ETH After the 'Aggressive Deleveraging'?

Ethereum has entered an aggressive deleveraging phase, breaking decisively lower after weeks of distribution near the upper boundary of its medium-term range. A key macro driver behind this move appears to be the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has pushed broader risk assets into de-risking mode and amplified existing technical fragilities in the ETH market.

The combination of macro uncertainty, elevated leverage, and vulnerable chart structure has produced a sharp unwind rather than a controlled pullback.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH has broken down from the prior ascending structure that extended from the late-2025 lows and has failed to break above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are now both located above the $3,000 mark. This price behavior has confirmed a transition from corrective sideways action into a clear downside trend.

The price has also broken below the first major demand band around the $2,200-$2,000 area, which coincides with a prior consolidation base and the origin of the last strong impulsive advance. Daily RSI has also fallen into deeply oversold territory in the low 20s, indicating stretched short-term conditions.

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However, as long as the market remains capped below the broken moving averages and former support around $2,200, the broader structure continues to point toward a bear-market rally at best rather than a confirmed reversal.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart highlights the velocity of the current sell-off, with ETH cascading lower from the previously defended $2,800–$2,900 support and barely pausing on intermediate levels. The market is now trying to stabilize around the $1,850–$1,900 range, and a mild bullish divergence is emerging on the 4-hour RSI, where momentum has begun to print higher lows despite marginally lower price lows.

This configuration often signals that forced selling pressure is easing and that a short-term relief bounce or sideways consolidation may follow.

Immediate resistance now sits in the $2,100–$2,200 area, with a stronger supply zone at $2,800. Any rebound that stalls below these bands would keep the intraday trend firmly bearish, while a clean breakdown below the recent $1,800 low would pave the way toward the deeper demand zone at $1,500.

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Sentiment Analysis

On the derivatives side, open interest across Ethereum futures has collapsed from elevated levels above 30 billion USD to nearly a third that size, tracking the price decline and signaling a large-scale liquidation cascade rather than an orderly reduction in positioning. This sharp contraction in open interest indicates that a significant portion of leveraged longs has been forced out of the market, with margin calls and auto-deleveraging accelerating the downside once key support levels failed.

While such events are painful in the short term, they also tend to cleanse excess leverage from the system, leaving a lighter positioning backdrop where spot flows and fresh capital, rather than crowded derivatives exposure, can play a larger role in setting the next directional move.

 

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Reclaims $71K, But How Long Will It Hold?

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Bitcoin Reclaims $71K, But How Long Will It Hold?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s derivatives signal caution, with the options skew hitting 20% as traders fear another wave of fund liquidations.

  • Bitcoin price recovered some of its Thursday losses, but it still struggles to match the gains of gold or tech stocks amid low leverage demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 17% since the $60,150 low on Friday, but derivatives metrics suggest caution as demand for upside price exposure near $70,000 remains constrained. Traders fear that the liquidations of $1.8 billion of leveraged bullish futures contracts in five days indicate that major hedge funds or market makers may have blown up.

Aggregate liquidations in Bitcoin futures contracts, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Unlike the Oct. 10, 2025, market collapse that culminated with a record $4.65 billion liquidation of Bitcoin futures, the recent price weakness has been marked by three consecutive weeks of downside pressure. Bulls have been adding positions between $70,000 and $90,000, as aggregate futures open interest increased despite forceful contract liquidations due to insufficient margins.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

The aggregated Bitcoin futures open interest on major exchanges totaled 527,850 BTC on Friday, virtually flat from the prior week. Although the notional value of those contracts dropped to $35.8 billion from $44.3 billion, the 20% change perfectly reflects the 21% Bitcoin price decline in the seven-day period. Data indicates that bulls have been adding positions despite the steady price decline.

To better understand if whales and market makers have turned bullish, one should assess the BTC futures basis rate, which measures the price difference relative to regular spot contracts. Under neutral circumstances, the premium should range between 5% and 10% annualized to compensate for the longer settlement period.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC futures basis rate dropped to 2% on Friday, the lowest level in more than a year. The lack of demand for bullish leverage is somewhat expected, but bulls will take longer than users to regain confidence even as Bitcoin price breaks above $70,000, especially considering that BTC is still  44% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics signal extreme fear

Traders’ lack of conviction in Bitcoin is also evident in the BTC options markets. Excessive demand for put (sell) options is a strong indicator of bearishness, pushing the skew metric above 6%. Conversely, when fear of missing out kicks in, traders will pay a premium for call (buy) options, causing the skew metric to flip negative.

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BTC 2-month options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC options skew metric reached 20% on Friday, a level that rarely persists and typically represents market panic. For comparison, the skew indicator stood at 11% on Nov. 21, 2025, following a 28% price correction to $80,620 from the $111,177 peak reached twenty days earlier. Since there is no specific catalyst for the current downturn, fear and uncertainty have naturally intensified.

Related: What’s really weighing on Bitcoin? Samson Mow breaks it down

Traders are likely to continue speculating that a major market maker, exchange, or hedge fund may have gone bankrupt, and this sentiment erodes conviction and implies a high probability of further price downside. Consequently, the odds of sustained bullish momentum remain low while BTC derivatives metrics continue to signal extreme fear.