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Is a 37% Drop Next?

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Bitcoin Below True Market Mean

Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after its recent correction dragged the price toward the $70,000 level. Viewed through a macro lens, this move has exposed BTC to elevated downside risk. 

Several on-chain and technical indicators now align with a bearish outlook. However, large holders are actively accumulating, attempting to slow or reverse the developing trend.

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Bitcoin Loses A Major On-Chain Support

Bitcoin has dropped below the True Market Mean for the first time since September 2023. This metric reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating supply. Trading below it signals weakening conviction among participants and marks a structural shift in market behavior.

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The loss of this anchor confirms deterioration that has been forming since late November. From a mid-term perspective, Bitcoin is now confined within a broader valuation corridor. Upside momentum has weakened, while downside pressure continues to build across multiple timeframes.

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Bitcoin Below True Market Mean
Bitcoin Below True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode

On the downside, the Realized Price near $55,800 represents the historical level where long-term capital re-enters. On the upside, the True Market Mean of around $80,200 has flipped into resistance. This configuration limits recovery potential and increases the probability of further downside exploration.

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Bitcoin’s Macro Outlook Suggests 37% Crash

This structural weakness aligns with a macro bearish setup visible on the charts. Bitcoin is breaking down from a Head and Shoulders pattern that has been developing for months. This formation carries a projected downside of roughly 37%, targeting $51,511 if fully realized.

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The sharp 20% decline over the past week accelerated this breakdown. Rapid selling pressure confirmed the pattern’s neckline breach, intensifying bearish momentum. Such moves often lead to follow-through declines as trapped long positions unwind.

Bitcoin Prepares For 37% Crash
Bitcoin Prepares For 37% Crash. Source: TradingView

The next critical support below $70,000 sits at $68,072. Losing this level would validate the bearish projection. A decisive break would likely trigger additional liquidations, increasing volatility, and accelerating price movement toward lower structural levels.

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BTC Whales Jump In As Rescue

Despite mounting bearish signals, Bitcoin whales are actively attempting to prevent further downside. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 50,000 BTC in just four days. At current prices, this accumulation exceeds $3.58 billion.

This behavior reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Large holders often accumulate during periods of fear, especially after sharp corrections. Bitcoin slipping below $75,000 appears to have created an attractive entry zone for long-term capital.

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Bitcoin Whale Accumulation
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation. Source: Santiment

If whale accumulation continues, it could absorb sell-side pressure and stabilize the price. Historically, such activity has preceded short-term rebounds. However, sustained impact depends on broader market sentiment and whether retail selling pressure subsides.

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BTC Price Is Close To Falling Below $70,000

Bitcoin price is trading near $69,500 at the time of writing after a 20% weekly decline. For now, BTC is yet to close a daily candle below $70,000 psychological support. This level has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections, making it critical for near-term stability.

From a short-term perspective, downside risks remain elevated. A breakdown below $68,442 would likely trigger accelerated selling. Under that scenario, Bitcoin could fall toward $65,360. Losing that support may expose BTC to a deeper slide toward $62,893.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, whale accumulation could influence price direction. A successful defense of $70,000 may allow Bitcoin to rebound toward $75,000. Reclaiming that level as support would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis and reopen the path toward $80,000 if momentum improves.

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Crypto World

Tether Invests $150M in Gold.com to expand gold tokenization

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Tether Invests $150M in Gold.com to expand gold tokenization

The investment arm of stablecoin issuer Tether has acquired a $150 million stake in the precious metals platform Gold.com to expand access to tokenized gold.

Tether said on Thursday that it acquired an approximately 12% stake in the company, which will integrate Tether Gold (XAUt), its gold-backed cryptocurrency, into Gold.com’s platform.

Source: Tether

Gold.com is a publicly listed online marketplace that sells gold and other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, to several markets, including the US.

“Gold has played a central role in preserving value for centuries, particularly during periods of monetary stress and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Gold exposure is not a trade for Tether; it is a hedge and a long-term allocation to protect our user base and ourselves in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable.”

He added the company’s investment in Gold.com “reflects a long-term belief that gold should be as accessible, transferable, and usable as modern digital money, without compromising on physical backing or ownership.”

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Tether explores stablecoin payments for gold

Tether and Gold.com are also exploring options to enable customers to purchase physical gold with Tether’s flagship stablecoin USDt (USDT) and its new stablecoin specifically for the US market, USAt (USAT), which it launched with crypto-native bank Anchorage Digital on Jan. 27.

Related: Bhutan makes second Bitcoin transfer in a week, worth $22M

Tether’s expanded gold offerings come as gold rallied more than 80% over the past 12 months to $5,600 on Jan. 29, before cooling off to $4,800 at the time of writing.