Connect with us

Crypto World

Is Trump’s New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Bullish for Crypto?

Published

on

Is Trump’s New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Bullish for Crypto?

President Donald Trump has named Kevin Warsh as his pick for the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve, setting up a leadership change at the world’s most powerful central bank in May 2026.

The nomination comes at a fragile moment. Inflation remains sticky, markets are jittery, and crypto is already under pressure from macro uncertainty. The choice of Fed chair now matters more than at any point since the pandemic.

So who is Kevin Warsh, how does he differ from Jerome Powell, and what could his appointment mean for interest rates — and for crypto markets in the second half of 2026?

Advertisement

Sponsored

Sponsored

Who Is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh is not an outsider to the Federal Reserve. His appointment will require Senate confirmation. But markets are already reacting to the policy signal behind the pick.

Warsh served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, becoming the youngest governor in the institution’s history. 

Advertisement

He worked closely with then-chair Ben Bernanke during the global financial crisis and represented the Fed at G20 meetings.

Back in 2007, Kevin Warsh Spoke at the First-Ever Fed Meeting Recorded by Cameras

After leaving the Fed, Warsh moved into academia and policy. He is currently a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and a frequent critic of modern central banking.

Warsh’s Monetary Policy Record: A Known Inflation Hawk

Historically, Warsh is best described as an inflation hawk.

During the 2008–2009 crisis, he repeatedly warned that aggressive easing could fuel future inflation. He opposed extended quantitative easing and pushed for a smaller Fed balance sheet, even when inflation was subdued.

This puts him at odds with the post-2020 Fed playbook.

Advertisement
The Inflation Hawk Personality Explained. Source: Investopedia

However, Warsh’s stance has evolved. In recent years, he has argued that deregulation and fiscal restraint could lower inflation naturally — allowing the Fed to cut rates without risking price instability.

That shift matters in the current cycle.

Sponsored

Sponsored

How Warsh Differs From Jerome Powell

The contrast with Jerome Powell is sharp.

Advertisement

Powell embraced emergency stimulus during COVID and initially downplayed inflation risks in 2021. That delay later forced the Fed into its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.

Warsh has openly called that period a policy failure, arguing the Fed lost credibility by reacting too late.

He also criticizes the Fed’s expanding mandate. Warsh opposes central bank involvement in climate policy, social issues, and political signaling. Powell has been more open to these initiatives.

In short, Warsh favors a narrower, more traditional Fed — focused strictly on inflation, employment, and financial stability.

Advertisement

What This Means for Interest Rates in 2026

The Fed’s latest decision this week kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling caution after multiple cuts in 2025.

Markets currently expect the next rate cut no earlier than mid-2026.

Warsh’s appointment complicates that outlook.

Sponsored

Advertisement

Sponsored

On one hand, his inflation hawk reputation suggests discipline. He is unlikely to rush cuts without clear evidence inflation is contained.

On the other hand, Warsh has publicly supported Trump’s view that excessive regulation and fiscal expansion are inflationary. If those pressures ease, he could back faster normalization.

That creates a scenario where rate cuts resume in the second half of 2026 — but under tighter justification.

Advertisement

Warsh and Crypto: Not Anti, But Not an Evangelist

Warsh’s relationship with crypto is nuanced.

He has invested personally in crypto-related firms, including the algorithmic stablecoin project Basis and crypto asset manager Bitwise. That alone separates him from many traditional policymakers.

Back in 2021, Kevin Warsh Invested in a $70 Million Funding Round for Bitwise

At the same time, Warsh is deeply skeptical of crypto as money.

He has argued that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it unsuitable as a medium of exchange. However, he has acknowledged Bitcoin could function as a store of value, similar to gold.

Sponsored

Advertisement

Sponsored

His strongest stance is against unregulated private money. Warsh has repeatedly called for clearer rules around stablecoins and supports a wholesale US CBDC limited to interbank use, not retail consumers.

That positions him closer to regulatory clarity than outright hostility.

Could Warsh Be Bullish for Crypto?

Short term, probably not.

Advertisement

Crypto markets remain driven by liquidity, rates, and macro risk. Warsh will not take office until May, and rate policy will remain data-dependent.

But medium to long term, the picture changes.

Warsh’s emphasis on credibility, rule clarity, and a restrained Fed could reduce policy uncertainty — something crypto markets have struggled with for years.

If inflation continues to cool and Warsh supports rate cuts later in 2026, risk assets would benefit. Crypto, which remains highly sensitive to real yields and liquidity expectations, would likely respond positively.

Advertisement

Importantly, Warsh is not ideologically anti-crypto. He views blockchain as a useful technology and prefers regulation over suppression.

That alone could improve sentiment.

Warsh is unlikely to spark an immediate rally. But if his tenure brings clearer regulation, lower inflation, and a path to sustained rate cuts, the second half of 2026 could look meaningfully more constructive.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

30% Risk Despite Tom Lee’s Theory

Published

on

BitMine Holdings

BMNR stock price remains under pressure in early February as selling continues across crypto-linked equities. The stock is down nearly 25% over five days and more than 33% over one month, trading around $22.35.

While management defended recent crypto-led paper losses as part of a long-term strategy, market data suggests technical weakness is still driving investor behavior. And increasingly driving them away, despite a novel defense from BitMine Chairman, Tom Lee.

Ethereum Treasury Losses Spark ‘Feature, Not A Bug’ Defense

Concerns around BitMine’s balance sheet intensified after data showed heavy unrealized losses on its Ethereum treasury.

Sponsored

Advertisement

Sponsored

As of February 3, BitMine had invested roughly $14.95 billion into ETH holdings. However, the current market value had fallen to around $8.53 billion, implying paper losses of more than $6.4 billion.

At the same time, Ethereum was trading near $2,200, well below BitMine’s average acquisition cost of roughly $3,800. This gap highlighted how deeply underwater the company’s treasury had become.

BitMine Holdings
BitMine Holdings: CryptoQuant

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

These figures triggered criticism from market observers, who argued that such large unrealized losses could limit future upside and pressure shareholder returns. Some warned that accumulated ETH could eventually act as a selling supply.

Advertisement

In response, Chairman Tom Lee defended the strategy, stating that drawdowns are “a feature, not a bug.” He argued that crypto cycles naturally involve temporary losses and that BitMine is designed to accumulate through downturns to outperform over time.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Advertisement

However, despite this explanation, BMNR stock failed to attract sustained buying interest after the comments.

OBV and CMF Show Buyers Stayed Away After the Breakdown

Market participation data suggests that investors began exiting even before the public debate intensified.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days. It reflects whether traders are accumulating or distributing.

Advertisement

From early December through late-January, OBV was forming higher lows, signaling steady accumulation. But between January 28 and 29, OBV broke below its rising trend line. This showed that possibly retail and short-term traders had started distributing shares.

Retail Buyers Leaving
Retail Buyers Leaving: TradingView

Sponsored

Sponsored

After OBV weakened, institutional-style capital followed.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures whether money is flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume. Readings above zero suggest accumulation, while negative values signal capital outflows.

Advertisement

From January 30 onward, CMF fell sharply and remained below zero. This confirmed that large buyers were reducing exposure as the BMNR price approached key support. Both indicators aligned with the chart structure.

BMNR had been forming a head-and-shoulders pattern through December and January. When price failed near the neckline and then broke down on February 2 (gap-down formation), OBV and CMF confirmed the move.

Big Money Leaves BitMine
Big Money Leaves BitMine: TradingView

In sequence, retail volume weakened first, large capital exited next, and prices collapsed afterward. The “feature, not a bug” ETH treasury narrative did not reverse this flow-driven sell-off.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Advertisement

Key BMNR Stock Price Levels Define the Next Move

After breaking the head-and-shoulders neckline and the rising trend line, the BMNR stock price resumed its broader downtrend, a projected dip of over 30%.

Several levels now define the outlook. On the downside, initial support sits near $19.26 if the BMNR stock price doesn’t reclaim $22.52 on the daily timeframe. Below $19.26, the next major level stands near $16.71, which aligns with the full technical projection of the bearish pattern.

If selling pressure accelerates, extended downside could reach toward $9.87, pushing the stock into single-digit territory. On the upside, recovery remains difficult.

The first resistance lies near $22.52. The BMNR stock price must reclaim this level to slow the decline. Above that, resistance appears near $25.07 and $28.66. These zones would need to be cleared to signal early stabilization.

Advertisement
BMNR Price Analysis
BMNR Price Analysis: TradingView

A broader trend shift would require a move above $34.46, followed by confirmation near $42. For now, both OBV and CMF remain weak, showing that buyers have not returned in force. Until capital flows turn positive and key resistance is reclaimed, technical pressure is likely to dominate BMNR stock price behavior.

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

TRM Labs Completes $70M Round At $1B, Becomes Crypto Unicorn

Published

on

TRM Labs Completes $70M Round At $1B, Becomes Crypto Unicorn

Blockchain intelligence platform TRM Labs completed a $70 million Series C funding round, valuing it at $1 billion, becoming the latest crypto company to reach unicorn status.

The investment round was led by seed investor Blockchain Capital, with participation from Goldman Sachs, Bessemer Venture Partners, Brevan Howard Digital, Thoma Bravo, Citi Ventures and Galaxy Ventures, according to a Wednesday news release.

TRM Labs seeks to equip public and private institutions with AI solutions that combat cybercrime. The company defends against illicit activities that increasingly rely on automation.

“At TRM, we’re building AI for problems that have real consequences for public safety, financial integrity, and national security,” wrote Esteban Castaño, co-founder and CEO of TRM Labs.

Advertisement

“This funding allows our world-class team — and the people who will join us next — to innovate alongside institutions on the front lines of the most consequential threats, and expand the potential of AI to meaningfully improve how our critical systems are protected.”

The $70 million round shows that capital is flowing into blockchain analytics platforms seeking to stop the spread of AI-fueled scams and cyberattacks, including from large traditional institutions.

Related: Fake MetaMask 2FA security checks lure users into sharing recovery phrases

TRM Labs to expand global workforce, advance AI compliance and investigation tools

TRM is a San Francisco-headquartered company with hubs in Los Angeles, New York, Washington, London and Singapore.

It said the new capital will be used to expand its global workforce of AI researchers, data scientists, engineers and financial crime experts.

Advertisement

The company will also advance its AI-powered investigations to disrupt illicit activity and advance its solutions that help institutions manage financial crime risks.

Related: CZ proposes fix to address poisoning after investor loses $50M

Crypto phishing scams see resurgence due to generative AI advancements

Crypto phishing scams have been a long-standing issue in the industry, which saw a resurgence following advancements in generative AI. They involve hackers sharing fraudulent links with victims to steal sensitive information, such as crypto wallet private keys.

In December, a Bitcoin (BTC) investor lost his entire retirement fund to an AI-fueled romance scam known as a “pig butchering.” In this case, the scammer used AI-generated images to emotionally manipulate the victim into sending over his Bitcoin.

Advertisement
Monthly crypto phishing scam losses and victims, 2025 chart. Source: drop.scamsniffer.io

Still, the falling number of incidents suggests that investors are becoming better at safeguarding their assets from attackers.

Losses to phishing scams decreased 83% year-on-year, falling to $83.3 million in 2025, from $494 million in 2024, according to a report from Web3 security tool Scam Sniffer

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops