JPMorgan Predicts Clarity Act Will Ignite Crypto Rally by Mid-2026

TLDR

• Bitcoin remains range-bound in the mid-$60,000 zone while ether hovers around $2,000, with trading activity subdued on leading platforms.
• According to JPMorgan, the Clarity Act represents a significant potential driver for cryptocurrency markets heading into late 2026.
• The proposed legislation would establish a dual regulatory framework with the SEC and CFTC overseeing different asset classes, while permitting projects to raise $75 million without standard SEC registration.
• Progress on the bill has slowed following Coinbase’s decision to withdraw endorsement, expressing concerns about its impact on innovation and market dynamics.
• Morgan Stanley is pursuing a federal trust charter from the OCC to provide digital asset custody services as part of its expanding crypto operations.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced prolonged consolidation, with Bitcoin holding steady near the mid-$60,000 level for several weeks. Ether continues to trade in the vicinity of $2,000, while exchange volumes remain notably muted. Market participants are actively seeking developments that could spark fresh momentum.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe they’ve identified a significant catalyst. A research note authored by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team highlighted the Clarity Act — proposed legislation aimed at establishing clear crypto regulations in the United States — as a potential driver for market appreciation in the latter half of this year.

“We continue to believe that a potential approval of the market structure legislation most likely by mid year could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets,” the analysts wrote.

The Clarity Act would establish a bifurcated regulatory framework between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Digital assets would receive designation as either commodities or securities based on their fundamental characteristics.

According to JPMorgan’s analysis, transferring oversight of prominent tokens to the CFTC would eliminate significant regulatory ambiguity. A provision in the legislation would enable specific tokens — such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin, and Chainlink — to receive commodity classification when connected to spot ETFs listed prior to January 1, 2026.

Additionally, the proposed framework would permit emerging cryptocurrency ventures to secure up to $75 million in annual funding without completing comprehensive SEC registration, provided they meet disclosure standards. JPMorgan’s team suggested this provision could revitalize domestic token launches and venture capital deployment that has migrated to foreign jurisdictions.

Clarity Act Hits a Wall

The legislation’s trajectory has encountered obstacles despite its potential benefits. A planned Senate Banking Committee review was delayed in early 2026 following Coinbase‘s announcement that it would no longer support the measure. The nation’s largest cryptocurrency exchange expressed concerns that the current legislative language might constrain technological advancement, diminish competitive forces, and impose limitations on stablecoin reward mechanisms.

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s chief executive, attributed the legislative delays primarily to banking industry lobbying organizations rather than individual financial institutions. The bill remains stalled as congressional members negotiate contentious elements of the proposal.

In parallel developments, traditional financial institutions are advancing their digital asset strategies. Morgan Stanley has submitted documentation to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency requesting authorization for a national trust bank charter. The proposed institution, designated as Morgan Stanley Digital Trust National Association, would establish its headquarters in Purchase, New York.

Morgan Stanley Goes All-In on Crypto Custody

Upon receiving regulatory approval, the subsidiary would provide custody solutions for digital assets, facilitate token transactions related to client portfolios, and deliver staking capabilities. The entity would operate without accepting deposits or extending credit facilities.

With approximately $9 trillion in assets under management, Morgan Stanley initially introduced Bitcoin investment vehicles to its wealth advisory clients in 2021 and subsequently broadened cryptocurrency trading access via its E*Trade platform during 2025.

The firm filed applications for spot Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum exchange-traded funds in January 2026 and appointed Amy Oldenburg to lead its digital asset strategy division. A federally regulated trust charter would enable Morgan Stanley to internalize custody and staking operations, diminishing dependence on external service providers such as Zerohash.

The OCC’s public feedback window extends through March 20, 2026. Upon approval, Morgan Stanley would join an established group of institutional custody providers that includes BNY Mellon and State Street.