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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

Bitcoin’s price sell-off has paused in the last 24 hours. However, prospects for a long-lasting recovery look dimmer as the dollar index springs back to life, threatening to squeeze crypto prices.

Prices for the leading cryptocurrency by market value have stabilized between $75,000 and $80,000 after a weekend decline that saw valuations drop from $85,000 to under $75,000. Some observers are pinning hopes on futures market dynamics to trigger a recovery above $80,000.

While that’s possible, sustainability is called into question as the dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major fiat currencies, is buoyant. Some experts expect the dollar to stay bid in the near term.

A stronger dollar raises the opportunity cost of holding greenback-denominated assets, such as bitcoin, gold, and commodities. All things being equal, a rising DXY is typically bearish for BTC. Furthermore, a stronger dollar often leads to financial tightening—the flow of money and credit through the global economy becomes more costly, disincentivizing risk-taking in financial markets.

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The DXY has risen 1.5% to 97.60 in two days, registering its best two-day gain in 9 months, according to data source TradingView. The renewed upswing is likely being fueled by fears that the incoming Federal Reserve President, Kevin Warsh, will be slow to cut interest rates, consistent with his reputation as a “policy hawk” earned during his term as Fed governor from 2006-2011.

“The dollar is looking healthier. The de-basement trade that seemed primarily behind the USD plunge of the past week has started to unwind since Kevin Warsh became U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

Analysts added that the upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, especially the nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report, could add fuel to the dollar recovery. The jobs report, initially scheduled for Feb. 6, has been delayed due to the partial federal government shutdown.

“Our call is for 80k payrolls and unchanged 4.4% unemployment, which can set the stage for a further stabilization/recovery in the dollar,” analysts noted.

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Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy, said that the USD bounce could have more room to run.

“While Warsh has recently aligned himself with Trump in calling for a lower fed funds rate, the fact that he was previously seen as a hawk during his stint as a Fed governor in the late-noughties means that he is probably less likely to advocate for aggressive cuts than Messrs Hassett and Reider,” Ryan explained in a blog post on FXStreet.

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Crypto World

Iran is Weighing Crypto Tolls for Ships using Strait of Hormuz: Report

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Iran is Weighing Crypto Tolls for Ships using Strait of Hormuz: Report

Hours after US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran and the United States had agreed to a two-week ceasefire that included opening the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian authorities are reportedly considering charging ships using the waterway in cryptocurrency.

According to a Wednesday Financial Times report, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said empty oil tankers will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without incurring charges, but certain ships will need to pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin (BTC).

The spokesperson, Hamid Hosseini, reportedly said Iranian authorities would also assess each ship using the waterway over the two-week period to ensure it wasn’t transporting weapons.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hosseini, according to the Financial Times.

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Many ships have effectively been cut off from using the Strait of Hormuz to transport oil and other supplies after US-Israel air strikes on Iranian targets in February and March. Amid the move by Iran and geopolitical tensions, the price of crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time in four years and the prices of many cryptocurrencies were volatile, with BTC fluctuating between $65,000 and $75,000.   

Related: Bitcoin reclaims $72K after US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire

Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday that the ceasefire deal included  the suspension of the “bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” and the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s state media reported that the country delivered a 10-point plan to the US president as a condition for the deal, including continued control of the waterway and the end of sanctions on Iran.

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Prior to war, Iran still used crypto to bolster its currency

Before the escalation of hostilities between US-Israeli forces and Iran in February, reports suggested that Iran had been using digital assets to evade sanctions amid its currency, the rial, dropping against the US dollar.

Blockchain analytics platform Elliptic reported in January that Iran’s central bank acquired half a billion dollars worth of Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin. TRM Labs also tracked about $3.7 billion in total crypto flows in Iran between January and July 2025.

Magazine: ‘Phantom Bitcoin’ checks, Drift hack linked to North Korea: Asia Express

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