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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

Bitcoin’s price sell-off has paused in the last 24 hours. However, prospects for a long-lasting recovery look dimmer as the dollar index springs back to life, threatening to squeeze crypto prices.

Prices for the leading cryptocurrency by market value have stabilized between $75,000 and $80,000 after a weekend decline that saw valuations drop from $85,000 to under $75,000. Some observers are pinning hopes on futures market dynamics to trigger a recovery above $80,000.

While that’s possible, sustainability is called into question as the dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major fiat currencies, is buoyant. Some experts expect the dollar to stay bid in the near term.

A stronger dollar raises the opportunity cost of holding greenback-denominated assets, such as bitcoin, gold, and commodities. All things being equal, a rising DXY is typically bearish for BTC. Furthermore, a stronger dollar often leads to financial tightening—the flow of money and credit through the global economy becomes more costly, disincentivizing risk-taking in financial markets.

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The DXY has risen 1.5% to 97.60 in two days, registering its best two-day gain in 9 months, according to data source TradingView. The renewed upswing is likely being fueled by fears that the incoming Federal Reserve President, Kevin Warsh, will be slow to cut interest rates, consistent with his reputation as a “policy hawk” earned during his term as Fed governor from 2006-2011.

“The dollar is looking healthier. The de-basement trade that seemed primarily behind the USD plunge of the past week has started to unwind since Kevin Warsh became U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

Analysts added that the upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, especially the nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report, could add fuel to the dollar recovery. The jobs report, initially scheduled for Feb. 6, has been delayed due to the partial federal government shutdown.

“Our call is for 80k payrolls and unchanged 4.4% unemployment, which can set the stage for a further stabilization/recovery in the dollar,” analysts noted.

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Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy, said that the USD bounce could have more room to run.

“While Warsh has recently aligned himself with Trump in calling for a lower fed funds rate, the fact that he was previously seen as a hawk during his stint as a Fed governor in the late-noughties means that he is probably less likely to advocate for aggressive cuts than Messrs Hassett and Reider,” Ryan explained in a blog post on FXStreet.

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Crypto World

TRM Labs Completes $70M Round At $1B, Becomes Crypto Unicorn

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TRM Labs Completes $70M Round At $1B, Becomes Crypto Unicorn

Blockchain intelligence platform TRM Labs completed a $70 million Series C funding round, valuing it at $1 billion, becoming the latest crypto company to reach unicorn status.

The investment round was led by seed investor Blockchain Capital, with participation from Goldman Sachs, Bessemer Venture Partners, Brevan Howard Digital, Thoma Bravo, Citi Ventures and Galaxy Ventures, according to a Wednesday news release.

TRM Labs seeks to equip public and private institutions with AI solutions that combat cybercrime. The company defends against illicit activities that increasingly rely on automation.

“At TRM, we’re building AI for problems that have real consequences for public safety, financial integrity, and national security,” wrote Esteban Castaño, co-founder and CEO of TRM Labs.

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“This funding allows our world-class team — and the people who will join us next — to innovate alongside institutions on the front lines of the most consequential threats, and expand the potential of AI to meaningfully improve how our critical systems are protected.”

The $70 million round shows that capital is flowing into blockchain analytics platforms seeking to stop the spread of AI-fueled scams and cyberattacks, including from large traditional institutions.

Related: Fake MetaMask 2FA security checks lure users into sharing recovery phrases

TRM Labs to expand global workforce, advance AI compliance and investigation tools

TRM is a San Francisco-headquartered company with hubs in Los Angeles, New York, Washington, London and Singapore.

It said the new capital will be used to expand its global workforce of AI researchers, data scientists, engineers and financial crime experts.

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The company will also advance its AI-powered investigations to disrupt illicit activity and advance its solutions that help institutions manage financial crime risks.

Related: CZ proposes fix to address poisoning after investor loses $50M

Crypto phishing scams see resurgence due to generative AI advancements

Crypto phishing scams have been a long-standing issue in the industry, which saw a resurgence following advancements in generative AI. They involve hackers sharing fraudulent links with victims to steal sensitive information, such as crypto wallet private keys.

In December, a Bitcoin (BTC) investor lost his entire retirement fund to an AI-fueled romance scam known as a “pig butchering.” In this case, the scammer used AI-generated images to emotionally manipulate the victim into sending over his Bitcoin.

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Monthly crypto phishing scam losses and victims, 2025 chart. Source: drop.scamsniffer.io

Still, the falling number of incidents suggests that investors are becoming better at safeguarding their assets from attackers.

Losses to phishing scams decreased 83% year-on-year, falling to $83.3 million in 2025, from $494 million in 2024, according to a report from Web3 security tool Scam Sniffer

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops