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Kalshi, Polymarket chase $20B valuations in fundraising: WSJ

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Crypto Breaking News

Two prediction-market platforms are pursuing high-value fundraising rounds that could place Kalshi and Polymarket at roughly $20 billion each, according to people familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal. The discussions, still in their early stages, may not culminate in a deal or reach that lofty valuation. Kalshi operates as a US-regulated exchange offering markets tied to sports, politics, the economy, and cultural events. The company was valued at about $11 billion after a $1 billion funding round in December, with investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Polymarket, founded in 2020, aims to roll out a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year, after a reported valuation around $9 billion in October following an investment of up to $2 billion by Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. The discussions come as lawmakers and regulators scrutinize prediction markets amid a surge of interest in crypto-adjacent financial instruments and the broader push for regulatory clarity in digital markets.

Key takeaways

  • Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly pursuing new fundraising rounds with a target valuation near $20 billion apiece, though the talks are preliminary and could fall short of the mark.
  • Kalshi’s growth has been rapid since a $1 billion funding round late last year, and it has surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with estimates climbing toward $1.5 billion in annual revenue.
  • Polymarket plans a regulated US version of its platform later this year, following an around $9 billion valuation after ICE’s investment of up to $2 billion.
  • Regulatory attention is intensifying as US lawmakers consider legislation to regulate prediction markets in response to concerns about insider trading and the potential for unfair advantages.
  • Past incidents involving Polymarket traders—allegedly profiting from advance information on geopolitical events—have heightened calls for safeguards and regulatory guardrails.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The fundraising chatter underscores a broader push for regulated, institutionally backed prediction markets as mainstream financial participants weigh the benefits and risks of event-based wagering within a legal framework.

Why it matters

Prediction markets sit at the nexus of finance, technology, and regulation. Kalshi’s path to a multi-billion fundraising round signals growing institutional interest in platforms that promise regulated exposure to real-world outcomes. The company’s CFTC approval in 2020 paved the way for a regulated exchange, and its recent revenue trajectory—moving beyond the $1 billion mark—illustrates a scale that could attract heavyweight investors if the market can sustain it. Yet this growth sits alongside regulatory scrutiny, as lawmakers seek to align prediction markets with existing securities and gambling rules while guarding against illicit activity.

Polymarket’s strategy to launch a regulated US version later this year reflects a dual aim: capitalize on a potentially sizable domestic market and address friction stemming from access restrictions that have limited user participation in the past. The firm’s October valuation of around $9 billion, reinforced by ICE’s investment, underscores a belief that a compliant, domestically accessible platform could tap into a broader mainstream audience. Still, the company has faced repeated questions about insider trading and the potential for information advantages, issues that have shaped the regulatory dialogue around this sector. These concerns are not merely theoretical; cases and investigations surrounding market manipulation and timed bets have sharpened lawmakers’ sense of urgency to formalize oversight.

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The regulatory dimension cannot be understated. US Democratic lawmakers have floated bills to govern prediction markets, especially after instances where bets appeared to reflect insider information during inflammatory events. The evolving policy landscape could either unlock a steady stream of institutional capital or impose tighter constraints that slow growth. In parallel, Nevada and other jurisdictions have tested the limits of these platforms, with court rulings and state actions sometimes halting trading activity. The dialogue around safety, compliance, and consumer protection is shaping a new phase for prediction-market operators who aspire to scale responsibly while navigating a patchwork of regulations.

Beyond regulation, investors will be watching how Kalshi and Polymarket translate growth into durable profitability. Kalshi’s revenue momentum, along with its industry-leading regulatory status, could provide a blueprint for how event-based markets scale under compliant models. Polymarket’s willingness to pursue a domestic rollout signals that the industry believes there is a legitimate, long-term market for transparent, outcome-based betting in the United States—so long as safeguards keep pace with innovation. The broader crypto-adjacent ecosystem is contending with questions about transparency, governance, and user protections, and the performance of these platforms could influence subsequent capital flows into related ventures and potential regulatory frameworks.

What to watch next

  • Public confirmation or adjustment of the valuation and terms of any fundraising rounds, including which investors participate and any conditions tied to regulatory compliance.
  • Regulatory developments in the United States, including any introduced bills that would specifically govern prediction markets and insider-trading rules for event-based platforms.
  • Polymarket’s progress toward launching a regulated US version of its platform, including state approvals, licensing steps, and user-access policies.
  • Ongoing or new investigations and enforcement actions related to insider trading or market manipulation on prediction-market venues, and how these shape platform governance.
  • Judicial or regulatory decisions from jurisdictions where Kalshi or Polymarket operate, including any Nevada rulings or related enforcement actions that affect trading activity.

Sources & verification

  • Wall Street Journal report on Kalshi and Polymarket evaluating roughly $20 billion valuations (early-stage discussions).
  • Kalshi’s December funding round and its stated valuation around $11 billion, with $1 billion raised from Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.
  • Intercontinental Exchange’s involvement with Polymarket, including a potential up-to-$2 billion investment and the October $9 billion valuation.
  • Regulatory developments and proposed legislation in the United States aimed at prediction markets and insider-trading controls.
  • Reported insider-trading concerns surrounding Polymarket bets tied to geopolitical events, including Iran-related timing and Maduro-related developments.

Prediction markets in focus as Kalshi and Polymarket pursue multi-billion rounds amid regulatory heat

Two veteran players in the prediction-market space appear poised to push into the next phase of capital formation, while a watchful regulatory eye ensures that the race toward scale does not outpace safeguards. Kalshi, which operates a US-regulated event-market trading platform, and Polymarket, known for its event-based bets, have both attracted attention from investors seeking exposure to a market that blends finance, tokenized risk, and real-world outcomes. The Wall Street Journal’s reporting that both companies are eyeing rounds around $20 billion suggests a belief among some participants that the value proposition can be realized at scale, provided the regulatory framework remains navigable.

Kalshi’s journey underscores how a traditional financial-regulatory boundary can be crossed with a model designed to align incentives with compliance. Since gaining approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate an event-based exchange, Kalshi has grown rapidly. The company’s recent publicity around surpassing a $1 billion revenue run rate—and estimates pushing toward $1.5 billion—highlights the potential for a regulated, market-based product to reach significant revenue milestones even as it faces the friction of regulatory scrutiny. The company’s December fundraising, which reportedly valued it at about $11 billion, marks a high-water mark that could be revisited in a new funding round if investors are convinced by growth metrics and governance standards. The prior financing, with investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital, signals that the platform remains attractive to venture capital and crypto-focused funds that seek regulated exposure to event outcomes.

Polymarket’s path toward a regulated US version later this year reflects a different but complementary strategy. The firm’s $9 billion valuation in October—supported by ICE’s $2 billion investment—indicates confidence in a domestic, compliant model that could unlock broader user access. Yet Polymarket has repeatedly confronted questions about insider trading and the potential for information asymmetries to drive outcomes. High-profile episodes, including investigations and public commentary on profitable bets tied to geopolitical events, have sharpened regulators’ focus on market structure, disclosures, and governance. The push for clearer rules is not merely academic: it has the potential to restructure how prediction markets operate in the US and influence global best practices for risk-based platforms that sit at the intersection of crypto, fintech, and traditional financial markets.

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As lawmakers consider new frameworks to govern these venues, the industry will need to demonstrate that it can balance innovation with integrity. The conversation is unlikely to slow the appetite for capital—especially from institutions seeking regulated exposure to event-driven outcomes—but it may determine the speed at which these platforms can expand beyond niche communities to mainstream audiences. The coming months will likely feature a flurry of regulatory filings, licensing steps, and potential court or administrative actions that could redefine the permissible scope of prediction-market activity in key US markets. For participants, the messages are clear: scale is possible, but governance, transparency, and user protection will be the decisive factors in whether multi-billion valuations translate into durable, compliant businesses.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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The Multibillion-dollar shift turning prediction markets into a professional hedging tool

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The Multibillion-dollar shift turning prediction markets into a professional hedging tool

The dominant narrative around prediction markets still centers on elections and sports. Sports account for the majority of volume at major venues, and election contracts are what put the category on the front page. But based on what active traders are actually doing with real money, prediction markets are expanding for an even more impactful purpose: they’re a place to hedge risks that no existing financial instrument can price cleanly because the assets are new in nature. Their applicability spans geopolitical events, policy shifts, combined with commodity-linked outcomes, and this market has the potential to dwarf anything sports will ever produce.

Case in point: when Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair in January, trading activity on Kalshi and Polymarket surged, and among frequent, multi-market traders, the volume spike dwarfed that of the Super Bowl. More recently, the 24-hour window around the Iran conflict produced more trading activity than any single sports day this year. Sports still account for the majority of the overall volume on both venues. But the traders driving the growth edge are building strategies across categories and venues. These traders are increasingly clustering around geopolitical, macro and policy-linked contracts. They are not looking for entertainment. They are looking for tools to price uncertainty that affects their other positions, their businesses, and (in some economies) their household budgets.

Serious institutional voices are now articulating that shift. In a February 2026 paper, Federal Reserve economists evaluated Kalshi’s macroeconomic prediction markets and argued that these markets can provide high-frequency, continuously updated, “distributionally rich” expectations data that could be valuable to researchers and policymakers.

From entertainment to infrastructure

To see where prediction markets are headed, we only need to monitor trader behavior, and the trend shows a growing number of participants integrating prediction market contracts into broader financial strategies.

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This means a commodity trader monitoring oil exposure now tracks Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contracts as a live signal for geopolitical risk that directly affects energy prices. An equity trader managing a concentrated tech position watches tariff-related prediction markets to calibrate event risk that no single stock indicator captures cleanly. In both examples, contract prices are doing something no traditional instrument offers. They’re updating in real time as the narrative around a specific event shifts, and this gives traders a probability signal they can act on across their wider book.

The commodities market is a $60 trillion annual market in the United States. The entire category began with farmers hedging crop yields. This simple premise scaled because the underlying need was real. Prediction markets are approaching a similar threshold. The format is simplistic: what we currently have are binary yes/no contracts on time-elapsed events, but the need they address is both universal and largely unserved by existing instruments: they allow you to price and act on uncertainty.

Before prediction markets, there was no clean way to express a view on whether a central bank would hold rates, whether a military strike would occur or whether a trade policy would shift. Traders could try to infer these probabilities from currency pairs or futures, but they were always trading them as a proxy. Even elections, arguably the most closely watched political events, were priced indirectly, so that a clean-energy Democrat leading in the polls would suppress coal stocks. Prediction markets are a superior instrument as they price the event itself. That makes them useful as hedging tools, which is an order of magnitude more applicable.

The international dimension

The fastest-growing segment of prediction market participation is international, spread across Europe, Asia and, increasingly, emerging markets. In economies marked by currency volatility, inflation and policy unpredictability, the ability to price uncertainty is becoming a necessity for investors.

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Stablecoins have already demonstrated this principle. Across Latin America and parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, digital dollars have become a mainstream store of value and remittance tool, not because users were drawn to crypto ideology, but because traditional banking infrastructure struggled with costs and volatility. Stablecoin adoption spread because it solved an everyday problem.

Prediction markets extend that applicability by providing a contract on whether a currency will depreciate next quarter, whether fuel subsidies will be cut, or whether a central bank will intervene. When such contracts are accessible through the same EVM infrastructure, a small position on a fuel price outcome starts to look less like a bet and more like insurance that provides a defined cost for a risk that is otherwise unmanageable.

Consumer-grade simplicity is not yet there, but the trajectory is visible, particularly for traders from high-volatility economies who are not treating prediction markets as entertainment. For them, they serve as an information layer that is also actionable.

What comes next

Prediction markets are now posting hundreds of millions in daily trading volume. Polymarket processed $8 billion in January; Kalshi processed $9 billion. Those figures have moved in only one direction.

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But the more important evolution will be in format. The current generation of prediction markets operates on simple binary outcomes. As the category matures, expect conviction-weighted instruments, conditional contracts and markets that reference real economic indices, making these tools more useful for hedging and less dependent on novelty for adoption.

Prediction markets are gaining traction because they measure outcomes with direct economic consequences for traders. Weather and commodity-linked markets, inflation and monetary policy contracts, and geopolitical risk pricing all sit at this intersection. Prediction markets are beginning to overlap meaningfully with traditional finance.

Elections have consistently been the category that drives the deepest engagement and the largest volume spikes, and that will continue as the US midterms approach. Sports generate steady liquidity. But the long-term value of prediction markets will grow to serve a larger population of people and institutions that need to manage uncertainty as part of their daily economic lives.

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Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Over Khamenei Prediction Market

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Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

A class action lawsuit has been filed against prediction market Kalshi, alleging that the death carveout in the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market was not properly disclosed to users and that the platform failed to pay out winning trades.

The plaintiffs said that the death carveout policy was “not incorporated into the user-facing rules summary,” and was not displayed in a way that would notify a “reasonable consumer” of the policy or its effects.

“Defendants, themselves, later acknowledged that their prior disclosures were ‘grammatically ambiguous,’” the lawsuit filing said.

Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
The class action lawsuit against Kalshi. Source: Court Listener

Kalshi voided trading positions for the market after the death of Khamenei, the former Iranian Supreme Leader, was confirmed, meaning the market did not resolve to a “yes.”

“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death,” Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour said.

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Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Tarek Mansour

The plaintiffs characterized the carveout policy as “predatory” and an “unfair” business practice for this specific market. The lawsuit said:

“With an American naval armada amassed on Iran’s doorstep and military conflict not merely foreseeable but widely anticipated, consumers understood that the most likely, and in many cases the only realistic, mechanism by which an 85-year-old autocratic leader would ‘leave office’ was through his death. Defendants understood this as well.”

Mansour also announced reimbursements for users affected by the carveout policy, calculated using the “last traded price” for the market before the death of Khamenei was confirmed. The reimbursement policy also drew significant pushback from users. 

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit say that the methodology and precise timestamps used to calculate the “last traded price” for the prediction market were not disclosed or transparent. 

Related: Kalshi bans US politician over alleged insider trading violation

Kalshi co-founder fires back against lawsuit claims

Mansour maintained that Kalshi was simply adhering to its policy of not allowing “death markets” and said the policy was clearly stated in the market rules.

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Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Tarek Mansour

“Kalshi made no money here and even reimbursed all losses out of pocket. Not a single user walked away losing money from this market,” he said.

The incident came amid trading volumes on prediction markets surging to record highs in 2026, as the platforms gain popularity.

Magazine: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket — AI Eye