Crypto World
Kalshi steps up surveillance amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, announced a major expansion of its market surveillance and enforcement framework aimed at preventing insider trading and market manipulation across its platform.
Summary
- Kalshi has expanded its market surveillance framework to prevent insider trading and market manipulation on its regulated prediction markets platform.
- The company formed an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee and partnered with Solidus Labs to strengthen trade monitoring and enforcement.
- The move positions Kalshi as a compliance-focused alternative as prediction markets face growing regulatory and public scrutiny.
The updates were shared on February 5, 2026, as part of a broad initiative to boost trading integrity.
Kalshi tightens market surveillance
Founded in 2018, Kalshi established prediction markets as a regulated financial asset class in the United States. Unlike many offshore trading platforms, Kalshi operates under oversight from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enforcing rules similar to those in traditional financial markets.
At the center of Kalshi’s announcement is the formation of an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee. The committee includes industry experts such as Lisa Pinheiro, Managing Principal at Analysis Group, and Daniel Taylor, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, known for his work on fraud and insider trading detection.
The group will review flagged trades, monitor investigations, and issue public quarterly reports on enforcement activity.
Kalshi also unveiled partnerships with Solidus Labs, a provider of advanced trade surveillance technology, and other market integrity advisors. The Solidus platform will augment Kalshi’s internal systems with deeper data analysis, helping detect sophisticated manipulation or suspicious trading patterns across more than 4,000 active markets.
The enhanced surveillance measures come amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets worldwide. Platforms like Polymarket have faced criticism and controversy over alleged insider advantage and market manipulation, leading lawmakers to consider new regulations targeting such practices.
The announcement also follows recent legal friction involving prediction markets more broadly. In Nevada, a state court recently declined to immediately block Coinbase’s prediction markets, which operate in partnership with Kalshi, after state regulators sought an emergency halt under gaming laws.
Bitcoin financial services firm Swan Bitcoin has filed an ex parte application in moves to subpoena Cantor Fitzgerald and its former CEO, Howard Lutnick, seeking discovery tied to a failed mining venture involving former employees.
Swan sued several ex-staff in September 2024, alleging that they stole confidential documents, resigned, and then founded “counterfeit competitor” firm Proton Management days later while convincing Tether, one of Swan’s funding partners at the time, to cut ties with Swan and work with them instead. The ex-staff allegedly referred to this as the “rain and hellfire” plan.
Swan’s application for a subpoena, filed in the Southern District of New York on Monday, targets Cantor Fitzgerald and Lutnick because Swan believes they are in possession of key documents relevant to Swan’s failed mining venture with Tether, 2040 Energy, in addition to the coordinated employee exodus and alleged data exfiltration.
The subpoena application against Lutnick, who now serves as US secretary of commerce, comes as Democratic senators like Elizabeth Warren continue to press him over potential conflicts of interest tied to Tether.
Cantor Fitzgerald is Tether’s investment banker and has advised the stablecoin issuer with its push into the Bitcoin mining industry, Swan noted in the filing.
Due to this link, Swan alleged that Cantor Fitzgerald likely knew about the undervalued sale of Swan’s crypto mining assets to a Tether subsidiary.
Swan alleges that Cantor ghosted them after a meeting
Swan said its CEO, Cory Klippsten, met with Lutnick in June 2024, before the alleged events took place, as Swan was considering an initial public offering and Cantor Fitzgerald was interested in being Swan’s lead investment banker.
During those discussions, Swan said it shared a “highly confidential and proprietary slide deck” with Cantor Fitzgerald and showed them its mining facilities.
“After the mass resignations and asset diversion, Cantor broke off contact with Swan without explanation,” Klippsten said on X.
Cointelegraph reached out to Cantor Fitzgerald for comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.
Related: SEC’s top enforcer clashed over Trump cases before quitting: Report
Swan alleges that the rain and hellfire plan was orchestrated by Michael Holmes, Swan’s former business development head, and Raphael Zagury, Swan’s former chief investment officer, who was appointed as Proton’s CEO.
The case Swan brought against Proton Management is ongoing.
The defendants previously denied Swan’s claims, arguing that 2040 Energy wasn’t theirs because it was fully funded by Tether.
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Crypto entrepreneur Nic Carter has urged Bitcoin developers to catch up on quantum resistance or risk losing out to Ethereum, which already has a post-quantum roadmap.
Elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) is the math that keeps Bitcoin (BTC) secure. Users pick a secret number (private key) and, using a special curved line and simple multiplication rules on that line, can quickly create a public address that everyone can see.
There are fears that quantum computers will have the ability to break this cryptography. The Bitcoin community is split on how to deal with it, with some advocating for upgrading cryptography while others say intervention would violate Bitcoin’s core principles.
“Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence,” said the founding partner at Castle Island Ventures on X on Thursday. “Whether it’s 3 or 10 years; it’s over and we need to accept that.”
“The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers recognize that they need to bake in cryptographic mutability into their networks.”
Carter argues that there will need to be an “entire reimagining” of how these systems work, and that today, the cryptography is hardcoded in. “That will have to change,” he added.
ARK Invest said in a paper on March 11 that about a third of all BTC was at risk from the quantum threat, but added that it was a “long-term risk.”
Ethereum has the advantage, claims Carter
Carter said that Ethereum developers are already working on this with a new security team, linking to a detailed post-quantum roadmap by 2029 that has been set as a “top strategic priority.”
“ETH people have already figured this out. Everyone else seems to be petrified in fear. Unless something changes quickly, ETHBTC will start to reflect the divergence in prioritization.”
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said in late February that validator signatures, data storage, accounts, and proofs must change to prepare for quantum threats, while proposing a quantum resistance roadmap.
Related: Vitalik Buterin outlines quantum resistance roadmap for Ethereum
At the same time, Carter has previously claimed on X that Bitcoin Core developers have been ignoring quantum-related proposals such as BIP-360.
Carter came down hard again on Bitcoin developers in his recent X thread, claiming they have a “worst in class approach,” and “deny, gaslight, gatekeep, bury heads in sand, say ‘the community will decide’ and then refuse to take feedback from the community when offered.”
Ethan Heilman, a co-author of BIP-360, responded in February that Core contributors have been engaging with the Bitcoin improvement proposal and that BIP-360 has received “more comments than any other BIP in the history of BIPs.”
Google warns of quantum threat to digital signatures
Meanwhile, Google raised the stakes on Wednesday, setting a 2029 deadline for its post-quantum cryptography migration.
The search giant warned that quantum computers will “pose a significant threat” to current cryptographic standards, and “specifically to encryption and digital signatures.”
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work
Bhutan has sold a part of its BTC stash again, and the pace is accelerating.
The Royal Government of Bhutan moved 519.707 BTC worth $36.75 million on Wednesday to an external address, according to Arkham Intelligence data. The transfer continues a drawdown that has intensified sharply over the past two weeks, with approximately $152 million in total outflows in 2026 alone.
The week before Wednesday’s move was the most active period in the kingdom’s bitcoin history. Arkham’s outflow data shows a cluster of transfers totaling roughly $72 million in a single week, headlined by a 595.848 BTC transfer worth $44.44 million, the largest single move of the year.
That was followed by 205.53 BTC ($15.14 million) and 150.047 BTC ($11.14 million) sent to external addresses, plus 20.506 BTC ($1.52 million) to QCP Capital’s merchant deposit address.
In January, Bhutan moved 184 BTC ($14.09 million) to an external wallet, sent 100.818 BTC ($8.31 million) to QCP Capital, and transferred $1.5 million in USDT to a Binance hot wallet. In February, another 100 BTC ($6.77 million) went to QCP. Two weeks ago, 175 BTC ($11.85 million) went out. Then last week’s $72 million burst. Then Wednesday’s $36.75 million.
The pattern shifted from $5-15 million clips in January and February to $35-45 million transfers in March.
QCP Capital has been the most consistent counterparty, receiving three separate transfers totaling roughly $16.6 million this year. The Singapore-based trading firm’s repeated appearance as a destination suggests an OTC relationship for structured selling rather than ad hoc liquidations.
Bhutan’s stack peaked at roughly 13,000 BTC in late 2024, built over several years through state-backed hydroelectric mining where the cost basis is effectively zero.
Every coin sold is profit for the country, whose economy depends heavily on hydroelectric exports to India.
The drawdown began after October 2024 and has been steep. Current holdings sit at 4,453 BTC worth $315 million, a 66% reduction in coins from peak. The Arkham balance chart shows the portfolio value peaked near $1.88 billion and now sits at $315 million, hit on both sides by the selling and bitcoin’s decline from $119,000 to $70,000.
In December, Bhutan unveiled a Bitcoin Development Pledge committing up to 10,000 BTC to fund Gelephu Mindfulness City. At the time that was worth roughly $860 million. The government now holds fewer than 4,500 coins. The pledge in its original form is mathematically impossible to fulfill without reversing the drawdown entirely.
CoinDesk has reached out to Druk Holding & Investments, the government’s commercial arm, for comment on the recent transfers and whether the Gelephu commitment remains active.
The XRP token is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and these quiet phases often don’t last. With price sitting just above $1.40 after a failed bounce, traders are watching closely for the next big move.
News Background
- XRP volatility has dropped to its lowest level since January, a setup that historically precedes sharp moves.
- A recent attempt to push above $1.43 failed, with sellers stepping in aggressively on higher volume.
- Regulatory clarity and rising institutional interest continue to build in the background, even as price action stays muted.
Price Action Summary
- XRP slipped slightly to around $1.40 after trading in a narrow ~$0.03 range
- Rejection near $1.43 capped upside
- Support around $1.40-$1.405 is now being tested repeatedly
- Late-session selling pushed price below short-term support before stabilizing
Technical Analysis
- XRP is in a classic “compression” phase — price is tightening, volatility is low, and a breakout is likely coming.
- The short-term structure is weakening, with failed attempts to reclaim $1.41 and sellers controlling rallies.
- However, buyers are still defending the $1.40 area, keeping the range intact for now.
- This creates a pressure build-up where the next move could be sharp once support or resistance breaks.
What traders should watch
- If $1.40 holds, XRP could bounce back toward $1.43 and potentially $1.45
- A clean break below $1.40 opens downside toward $1.35
- The key signal will be volume — whichever side breaks with strong participation likely sets the next trend
The Reserve Bank of Australia is putting its support behind the real-world asset tokenization sector, citing recent analysis that it could contribute 24 billion Australian dollars ($16.7 billion) to the economy per year.
Australia’s central bank assistant governor Brad Jones shared findings from Project Acacia on Wednesday, commenting that tokenized finance and related infrastructure upgrades will be “revolutionary,” according to advocates.
He said that potential gains for the Australian economy from RWA tokenization were on the order of $16.7 billion per year, “and larger still if new markets emerged.”
“First, we no longer see the main question as whether tokenization has a future in Australia’s financial system, but rather, how.”
Global consulting firm McKinsey & Company has forecasted that the value of tokenized assets could hit nearly $2 trillion by 2030. The head of Australia’s securities regulator, Joe Longo, in November urged the country to “seize the opportunity” or be left behind.
Project Acacia is the RBA’s collaborative research project run with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre and industry groups.
It was built on a previous central bank digital currency pilot and explored whether tokenized assets could improve the functioning of Australia’s wholesale financial markets.
New digital finance sandbox to be explored
Jones said the RBA will partner with agencies and industry groups to explore a “new digital financial market infrastructure (DFMI) sandbox.”
He added that this could allow industry and policymakers to build on the learnings from Project Acacia.
Related: Major Australian pension fund mulls crypto offerings amid growing demand
It could also “smooth the path to practical implementation by providing a safe space for the testing and scaling of tokenized money, assets, and new infrastructure in a longer-term, stage-gated environment,” he said, adding that it could be tied in with a CBDC.
“The interaction of wholesale CBDC with bank deposit tokens and stablecoins, and the synchronisation of tokenized asset ledgers with RITS [Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System], will be particular areas of interest.”
RWA onchain value surges 234% in a year
Jones concluded that ensuring Australia’s payments, monetary and financial infrastructure arrangements are “fit for purpose” in the digital age is a “strategic priority for the RBA.”
The total RWA market onchain value hit a record high of $27.5 billion last week, excluding stablecoins, according to RWA.xyz. The sector has seen huge growth, surging by 234% over the past 12 months despite the broader crypto asset bear market.
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Bitcoin Depot has appointed Alex Holmes—already a member of the company’s board—as chief executive and chair, replacing Scott Buchanan who stepped down after less than three months in the top role. The move comes as the crypto ATM operator faces growing regulatory pressure across multiple U.S. states over alleged scams and money-laundering concerns tied to its kiosks. In the company’s regulatory filing, Bitcoin Depot stressed that Buchanan’s departure “was not due [to] a disagreement.”
Holmes, a veteran MoneyGram executive who spent 16 years at the payments firm in roles including chief financial officer and CEO, is known for his emphasis on regulatory compliance. He said his priorities center on stabilizing operations, advancing regulatory progress, and accelerating the company’s evolution into a broader fintech platform. Mintz, the founder and former CEO, will shift from executive chair to non-executive board member and serve as an adviser to Holmes.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin Depot appoints Alex Holmes as CEO and chair, with founder Brandon Mintz moving to a non-executive advisory role.
- The leadership transition comes as U.S. states intensify scrutiny of crypto ATMs amid concerns about scams and money laundering.
- Connecticut suspended Bitcoin Depot’s money transmission license and issued a cease-and-desist order; Massachusetts has sued the company; Maine paid $1.9 million to a consumer protection bureau; Missouri opened an investigation; Iowa filed a lawsuit against Bitcoin Depot and another operator.
- The company lowered its 2026 revenue outlook amid a “dynamic regulatory environment.”
- Bitcoin Depot’s stock traded around the low-dollar range, with a recent intraday reaction reflecting the ongoing regulatory headwinds.
Regulatory pressure frames the leadership shuffle
The executive transition arrives at a time when Bitcoin Depot faces heightened regulatory risk across several states. Connecticut’s banking regulator announced a suspension of the company’s state money transmission license and issued a temporary cease-and-desist order, citing multiple alleged violations of state money transmission laws, including excessive fees and refunds to scam victims. The action underscores the ongoing tension between fast-growing crypto kiosk networks and traditional consumer protections frameworks.
Earlier in the year, Massachusetts prosecutors filed suit accusing Bitcoin Depot of overcharging consumers, facilitating scams, and failing to issue refunds. The legal actions across New England reflect a broader pattern of state attorneys general and regulators scrutinizing crypto ATM operations for consumer harm and compliance shortcomings.
Widening regulatory net and what it means for operators
Beyond Connecticut and Massachusetts, Bitcoin Depot has encountered regulatory actions in Maine, Missouri, and Iowa. Maine’s consumer protection agency announced a settlement in January, requiring the company to pay $1.9 million to compensate consumers for fraudulent transactions. In Missouri, the attorney general opened an investigation into Bitcoin Depot and four other crypto ATM operators in December, focusing on potentially deceptive fees and the misuse of kiosks by unscrupulous actors. Iowa followed with a lawsuit filed in February against Bitcoin Depot and rival CoinFlip, accusing the firms of enabling scams and costing Iowans more than $20 million.
These actions illustrate a pattern: as crypto kiosks proliferate, state regulators are increasingly willing to pursue enforcement actions tied to fees, refunds, and the overall integrity of the customer experience. The regulatory backdrop has translated into operational and financial headwinds for Bitcoin Depot, contributing to a broader reassessment of how crypto-access points are governed in the United States.
As Cointelegraph reported in related coverage, the sector has seen a notable uptick in losses and fraud linked to crypto ATMs, a trend that underscores the tension between rapid expansion and consumer protection. The industry’s evolving risk profile makes leadership choices at public or near-public operators all the more consequential for investors and users alike.
Financial outlook and investor reception
Bitcoin Depot disclosed in its 2025 results that it had reduced its 2026 revenue outlook, projecting a decline of roughly 30% to 40% due to what it described as a dynamic regulatory environment. The update was a frank acknowledgment that the path to growth in a highly regulated landscape will require careful navigation of state-by-state compliance regimes, alongside the ongoing need to secure consumer trust.
Market reaction to the leadership change and regulatory developments has been modestly negative in the immediate term. The company’s shares closed lower on the latest trading session, then recovered slightly after hours, a reflection of investor caution in light of the mounting legal and regulatory pressures. Bitcoin Depot (BTM) has been under severe pressure this year, with the stock down significantly from its 2022–2023 highs as state actions and corporate governance scrutiny mounted.
Strategic implications for a diversified fintech play
Holmes’ appointment signals a potential shift in Bitcoin Depot’s strategy toward a broader fintech platform, leveraging his deep experience in payments compliance. If executed well, the pivot could help the company balance growth in crypto-enabled services with stronger risk controls, potentially broadening its appeal to financial partners and retailers wary of compliance exposure. Yet the immediate priority remains stabilizing operations amid a tightening regulatory environment that could influence licensing, fee structures, and consumer protections across multiple jurisdictions.
In the near term, observers will be watching how Bitcoin Depot renegotiates its licensing posture in states where enforcement actions were initiated and whether it can restore consumer confidence through transparent refunds, clearer fee disclosures, and robust anti-scam measures. The outcome of ongoing investigations and lawsuits will also be a bellwether for the broader blockchain kiosk sector, which has seen rapid expansion but uneven regulatory clarity.
What to watch next
Investors and users should monitor how Holmes reshapes the operational backbone of Bitcoin Depot, including any concrete steps to strengthen regulatory compliance, refine fee policies, and improve dispute resolution processes. State regulators’ ongoing actions will continue to play a decisive role in determining the company’s ability to scale its network and sustain revenue growth in a constrained regulatory landscape. As the sector evolves, further clarity on a national framework for crypto kiosks could either ease the path for expansion or impose new guardrails that reshape a still-nascent market.
A Texas court has dismissed a lawsuit filed by crypto developer Michael Lewellen, seeking a declaratory judgment that his software, Pharos, which facilitates donations to charitable crowdfunding campaigns, won’t be prosecuted for violating money-transmission laws.
Chief US District Judge Reed O’Connor dismissed the case on Wednesday, finding that Lewellen had failed to demonstrate a credible threat of imminent prosecution.
“Disappointed to see the court dismiss my suit today,” said Lewellen on X on Wednesday.
In its dismissal, the court also cited a Department of Justice memo stating that it will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services or offline wallets for the acts of their end users or for unwitting violations of regulations.
“A non-binding DoJ memo is no substitute for real legal certainty,” added Lewellen.
Crypto software developers are increasingly seeking legal protections to shield themselves from criminal liability over the software they create.
Other crypto software developers prosecuted
Lewellen, a fellow at crypto advocacy group Coin Center, which backed the suit, argued in his legal complaint last January that developers of software similar to his product, such as those behind Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet, have faced prosecution under these laws.
Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm was convicted last year on charges of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business. The co-founders of privacy-focused Bitcoin wallet Samourai Wallet were found guilty on the same charge — both cases cited by Lewellen as evidence of a real legal threat to developers like himself.
However, Judge O’Connor argued that the “core conduct of those cases is money laundering.”
“By contrast, the core conduct here would be running a business. And Lewellen disclaims any knowing transmission of criminal funds, which is central to the prosecutions he invokes,” Judge O’Connor wrote.
Case dismissed for now but it might not be over
Lewellen said his lawyers are exploring all options for a path forward.
Judge O’Connor dismissed the case without prejudice, meaning Lewellen could pursue the same action again with certain corrections or modifications.
Related: SEC sends proposed crypto interpretation to White House for review
Peter Van Valkenburgh, the executive director at Coin Center, said the memo cited by Judge O’Connor “has not provided meaningful protection to developers, given the outcomes in the Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet cases.”
Both Valkenburgh and Lewellen have now called for Congress to pass the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act of 2026.
Introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis in January, the legislation aims to clarify that developers and providers of non-custodial software who do not control user funds are not subject to money transmitter laws.
“So while I hope the court is right that non-custodial software developers are not at real risk, the Blanche memo is not enough to secure their rights. It is a vague enforcement signal, not a durable limit on government power,” Valkenburgh added.
“Worse, the court has now used that vague signal as a reason not to provide actual judicial clarity on the scope of developer liability. Instead of a clear rule, developers get a revocable memo and a court telling them not to worry.”
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work
Bitcoin Depot has named the former CEO of payments giant MoneyGram as its new boss amid mounting regulatory pressure from US states over crypto ATM’s use in scams and money laundering.
The company said on Tuesday that Scott Buchanan had immediately stepped down as CEO, a role he served in for less than three months after starting on Jan. 1. It added in a regulatory filing that his resignation “was not due [to] a disagreement.”
Bitcoin Depot appointed Alex Holmes, who was already a board member, as CEO and chair. He has held various executive roles, including finance chief and CEO, over a 16-year period at MoneyGram, where he focused on regulatory compliance.
“As I step into the role, my priorities are operational stability, regulatory progress, and accelerating the Company’s evolution into a more diversified fintech platform,” Holmes said in a statement.
The leadership shake-up comes as Bitcoin Depot has faced legal and regulatory challenges in multiple US states, as crypto ATM operators come under increased scrutiny over the kiosks’ use in scams and money laundering.
Bitcoin Depot said its founder and former CEO, Brandon Mintz, would also transition from executive chair to a non-executive member of the board and would work as an adviser to Holmes.
Multiple US states take action against Bitcoin Depot
Bitcoin Depot most recently faced state action in Connecticut, whose banking regulator suspended its state money transmission license and issued a temporary cease-and-desist order earlier this month.
The order alleged multiple violations of the state money transmission laws, including excessive fees and incomplete refunds to scam victims.
Bitcoin Depot has also faced action from at least four additional states since early 2025, with Massachusetts’ attorney general suing Bitcoin Depot in early February for allegedly overcharging consumers, knowingly facilitating scams and refusing to issue refunds.
The company paid $1.9 million to Maine’s Consumer Credit Protection Bureau in January to compensate consumers for fraudulent transactions, and Missouri’s attorney general opened an investigation into Bitcoin Depot and four other crypto ATM operators in December over concerns of deceptive fees and use by bad actors.
Related: Crypto ATM losses surge 33% in 2025 as AI superpowers scams: CertiK
Iowa also sued Bitcoin Depot and CoinFlip in February 2025 over alleged failures that allowed scammers to transfer millions of dollars through their kiosks.
Bitcoin Depot had lowered its 2026 outlook in its 2025 results released earlier this month, estimating its revenues would be down 30% to 40% due to a “dynamic regulatory environment.”
Shares in Bitcoin Depot (BTM) ended trading on Wednesday down 6.6% to $2.62, but saw a 4.7% bump after the bell to $2.74.
The stock is down 71% so far this year and has fallen more than 94% from its closing all-time high of $45.36 in mid-June.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
BNB price surged back towards $650 as futures traders increasingly bet on further upside for the token.
Summary
- BNB rebounded from $627 to near $650 as improving risk sentiment followed easing U.S.-Iran tensions and a drop in crude oil prices.
- Futures activity strengthened, with open interest rising 6.5% to $923 million and a long-short ratio above 2.21, signaling bullish positioning.
- Technical setup remains positive, with price holding above an ascending trendline and a bullish SMA crossover pointing toward resistance near $685 and potentially $750.
After touching an intraday low of $627 on Sunday, BNB (BNB) price rebounded back to $646 at the last check on Monday morning, March 25.
BNB price rebounded in tandem with the broader crypto market as investor appetite for risk assets improved on hopes of peace between the U.S. and Iran. Notably, crude oil prices fell sharply back below $100 to trade around $87 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased. Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $71,000 while Ethereum (ETH) approached the $2,200 level.
The traditional market also seemed to catch a bid with Asian stocks, such as Japan’s Nikkei 225, the Hang Seng, and the Shanghai Composite, all posting gains.
On the derivatives market, traders have scaled up their bets on BNB, adding more liquidity to the ecosystem.
CoinGlass data show that open interest for BNB futures has increased by 6.5% to $923 million over the past 24 hours, with a long/short ratio of over 2.21 on the crypto exchange Binance. This indicates that market participants are overwhelmingly positioned for a breakout as bullish conviction reaches its highest point this month.
BNB’s price action on the daily chart presents a bullish outlook for the token over the coming sessions.
BNB price has rebounded above an ascending trendline that has been acting as a dynamic support for the token over multiple weeks. As long as BNB price remains above the support trendline, the overall structure remains firmly in the hands of the buyers.
The trendline forms the lower boundary of an ascending parallel channel pattern, another popular bullish pattern in technical analysis.
Additionally, a look at technical indicators shows that bulls are regaining their momentum and control over the market. Notably, the 20-day SMA has formed a bullish crossover with the 50-day SMA, while the relative strength index is close to breaking above neutral levels to signal that the path of least resistance is now to the upside.
While this still means that volatility could persist, especially if the broader market sentiment improves as further details emerge over the potential peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the outlook is promising.
For now, traders should keep an eye on $685 as the next key resistance level where BNB faced stiff rejection several times during its rally earlier this month.
A breach above the neckline could catapult the price towards the 100-day SMA above $750. On the contrary, if BNB price slips below the $600 support, it could invalidate the current bullish thesis and lead to a retest of lower demand zones.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Enlivex has raised $21 million through a debt financing deal as it expands its treasury tied to the prediction market token Rain.
Summary
- Enlivex used debt funding to buy 3 billion more RAIN tokens at a 62% discount.
- The company also extended rights to buy 272.1 billion more RAIN tokens through December 2027.
- RAIN stayed mostly flat, while Enlivex shares dipped in regular trading and rose after hours.
The immunotherapy company said the new funding will support its operating plan and help it buy more RAIN tokens while extending its purchase option through December 2027.
Enlivex said it exercised an option on Sunday to buy another 3 billion RAIN tokens for $10 million. The company said the purchase price reflected a 62% discount. It also extended its option to buy another 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price through December 2027.
The financing came from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager. Enlivex executive chair Shai Novik said,
“We are continuing to execute our prediction markets treasury strategy, and we are pleased that Lind provided us with substantial capital, allowing us to continue the execution of our operating plan, as well as to acquire approximately three billion additional RAIN tokens.”
Debt deal comes with share buyback plan
Enlivex said it also approved a $20 million share buyback program. The company said the move is aimed at supporting shareholder value while it continues to build its treasury strategy around prediction markets.
The company is known for developing cell therapy products for knee osteoarthritis. At the same time, it has joined a growing group of non-crypto firms that are adding digital assets to their balance sheets. These companies are using token holdings as part of broader capital and treasury plans.
In addition, the value of Enlivex’s RAIN treasury depends on activity on Rain’s decentralized prediction market platform. Rain has a built-in 2.5% fee, and the protocol uses that fee to buy back and burn RAIN tokens. The model is designed to reduce supply while linking token demand to platform usage.
Rain runs on Arbitrum, an Ethereum layer-2 network. DeFiLlama data places Rain among the top 10 prediction market platforms by total value locked and fees over the past seven days. Prediction markets have grown fast over the past year, with trading volume rising more than 1,200% to $23.3 billion between February 2025 and February 2026.
RAIN and ENVL traded near flat after the news
RAIN rose 7% after the announcement and reached $0.009 before easing to $0.0088. CoinGecko data showed the token was up 0.3% over the past 24 hours by the time of reporting.
Enlivex shares also moved only slightly during regular trading. The stock closed Tuesday down 0.9% at $1.10, then rose 4.5% in after-hours trading to $1.15. Kalshi and Polymarket still lead the prediction market sector and account for more than 80% of total trading volume.
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