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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.

S&P 500 Year-to-Date Chart

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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity Momentum

The latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns. 

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Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.

Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date. 

That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.

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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the Rally

Corporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January. 

More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.

Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.

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Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite Intact

The broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.

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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%. 

Dow Jones Year-To-Date Chart

Investors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.

Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market Divergence

While equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets. 

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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.

The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term. 

While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.

Bitcoin 7-Day Price Chart. Source: Coincodex

Outlook

The S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.

Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) treaded water at Thursday’s Wall Street open as the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stays locked on $74,000 after its local highs preceded a new record for the S&P 500.

  • Analysis warns that the US midterm elections may impact the stock rally.

  • Bitcoin could follow the Nasdaq 100 higher, a trader suggests.

BTC price tripped after fresh highs from the S&P 500

Data from TradingView showed $74,000 continuing to form an intraday BTC price focus.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US jobless claims came in marginally below expectations at 207,000 versus 213,000, pointing to the labor market withstanding current geopolitical and inflation pressures.

These followed a new record for the S&P 500, which crossed 7,000 points for the first time in history after Bitcoin hit two-month highs.

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Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the S&P had advanced by nearly 11% in the past 11 trading sessions.

“It ranks as the fifth quickest recovery to record highs following a deep pullback,” it wrote in its latest “Mosaic Chart Alerts” update. 

“The S&P closed firmly above the 7,000 level for the first time in history despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that sparked a 9% drawdown in the index into late March.”

S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold dipped to intraday lows and WTI crude oil eyed $94 per barrel as markets awaited further cues over the US-Iran war.

QCP, meanwhile, warned that seasonal trends could still end the stock rally as the US entered midterm elections. The S&P 500, it noted, “tends to find its peak about now ahead of mid-term elections, and then recovering during the final quarter of the year.”

“I would not base any investment decision or outlook based on seasonals alone, which is why I’m also watching confirmation from breadth,” it cautioned.

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S&P 500 seasonality data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Trader sees “opportunity” in Bitcoin versus Nasdaq

With BTC price action finding resistance near its range highs, market participants eyed exchange order-book liquidity for clues as to where the next showdown could come.

Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis

“The price bucket at $72.2K – 72.4K has a large amount of open interest that has slowly accumulated,” Shubh Varma, CEO of crypto data platform Hyblock, told Cointelegraph on the day.

“We’ve seen this level where traders are often active, entering and exiting. Most recently, about $100 million longs and shorts opened here, bringing the total close to $400 million at that price bucket, over the last seven days (on Binance stablecoin perps).”

Varma added that this could form “an area to watch as potential support if price revisits it, as many of these longs and shorts may exit at breakeven ‘psychological’ level.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract open interest data. Source: Hyblock

Continuing the stocks theme, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged Bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq-100 index as a cause for optimism going forward.

“Bitcoin is about to follow Nasdaq,” he told X followers. 

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“The reason for this is quite simple: the correlation has been significantly strong most of the time. This period? The weakest correlation in the past 10 years.”

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 futures one-week chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Van de Poppe eyed a “tremendous opportunity” for Bitcoin buyers, having recently seen a similar bullish setup in Bitcoin versus gold.