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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.

S&P 500 Year-to-Date Chart

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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity Momentum

The latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns. 

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Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.

Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date. 

That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.

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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the Rally

Corporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January. 

More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.

Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.

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Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite Intact

The broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.

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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%. 

Dow Jones Year-To-Date Chart

Investors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.

Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market Divergence

While equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets. 

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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.

The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term. 

While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.

Bitcoin 7-Day Price Chart. Source: Coincodex

Outlook

The S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.

Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.

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Crypto World

Charles Hoskinson: Bitcoin Quantum Upgrade Cannot Save Coins

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Charles Hoskinson said Bitcoin’s quantum proposal would require a hard fork instead of a soft fork.
  • He argued that the plan would invalidate existing signature schemes used by current Bitcoin users.
  • Hoskinson stated that the proposal cannot recover about 1.7 million early mined bitcoin.
  • He said roughly 1.1 million of those coins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • The proposal suggests users could reclaim frozen funds through zero-knowledge proofs tied to BIP-39 seed phrases.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson challenged a new Bitcoin proposal that targets quantum threats. He said the plan would require a hard fork rather than a soft fork. He also argued that the change cannot recover early coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin’s Quantum Proposal Faces Hard Fork Dispute

Bitcoin developers proposed BIP-361 to freeze addresses vulnerable to future quantum computers. They said the change would phase out old signature schemes and protect dormant funds. However, Hoskinson rejected the claim that the plan qualifies as a soft fork.

He stated, “To actually do this, you need a hard fork,” in a YouTube video. He argued that the proposal invalidates signature rules that users still rely on. Therefore, he said old software would stop working unless every participant upgrades.

Developers described BIP-361 as a rule tightening that older nodes could accept. In contrast, Hoskinson said the measure changes core validation standards. He added that Bitcoin culture has long opposed hard forks because they alter network history.

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BIP-361 co-author Jameson Lopp addressed the debate on X this week. He wrote that he does not like the proposal and hopes adoption never becomes necessary. He called it “a rough idea for a contingency plan” rather than a final plan.

Satoshi-era Holdings Remain Beyond Recovery

Hoskinson said the plan cannot protect about 1.7 million early bitcoin. He stated that around 1.1 million of those coins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. He argued that those holdings predate modern wallet standards.

BIP-361 suggests that users could reclaim frozen funds through zero-knowledge proofs. The proof would tie ownership to a BIP-39 seed phrase used in newer wallets. However, Hoskinson said early wallets did not use seed phrases.

He explained that the original Bitcoin software relied on a local key pool. That system generated private keys without a deterministic seed phrase. Therefore, he said no proof based on BIP-39 can verify those older coins.

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He said, “1.7 million coins can’t do that. It’s not possible.” He added that migration would require cryptographic proof that early holders cannot produce. As a result, those coins would remain frozen under the proposal.

Lopp estimated that 5.6 million bitcoin sit dormant across the network. He argued that freezing them would prove safer than letting quantum attackers unlock them. He presented the freeze as a protective option rather than a finalized policy.

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After Kalshi Appeal, Prediction Markets Fight Could Head to Supreme Court

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Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

An appellate court is expected to reach a decision after hearing arguments from Kalshi and lawyers representing the state of Nevada.

Some legal experts speculated that the state vs. federal jurisdiction battle over regulating prediction markets companies could soon be headed to the United States Supreme Court.

On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing prediction markets platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities over the state’s ban on the prediction markets’ event contracts. The appeal was over a lower court decision preventing Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada, based on claims that the company needed a gaming license.

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Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Thursday oral arguments by Kalshi and the State of Nevada. Source: US Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit

The appellate judge overseeing Thursday’s oral arguments and the lawyer for Kalshi acknowledged that there had been several state-level enforcement actions against the company and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, last week a federal court blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state’s gambling laws on Kalshi’s event contracts.

“I think the body of case law does demonstrate that what we really need to avoid here is having a state and a federal court considering exactly the same issue at exactly the same time and potentially reaching different outcomes,” said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.

Related: CFTC probes oil futures trades tied to Trump’s moves in Iran: Report

Central to Kalshi’s argument was that the platform’s event contracts were “swaps” falling under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gaming authorities. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has backed this position in the case of Crypto.com’s prediction markets against Nevada authorities.

The appellate court did not immediately announce a decision following oral arguments. Any ruling could affect how state courts treat prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as policymakers come to terms with the growing market, expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

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Coinbase’s top lawyer weighs in on prediction market arguments

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal, whose company was not a party to the Kalshi proceedings but has a stake in the prediction markets fight, speculated that the case could go the US Supreme Court.

“The questions at oral argument are an unreliable signal in predicting the leanings of a court,” said Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal in a Thursday X post following the oral arguments. “Either way, I stand by my longstanding prediction— the Supreme Court will resolve whether sports [contracts] on [Designated Contract Markets] are swaps subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC.”

The US Supreme Court gave states the authority to regulate sports gambling in its 2018 decision in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association.

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