Crypto World
KREMLIN malware uses Ethereum to update attack servers
Security researchers have traced more than 1,500 KREMLIN malware infections after uncovering a Brazilian banking campaign that uses Ethereum smart contracts to update attack infrastructure and malicious browser extensions to steal credentials and session data.
Summary
- Elastic tracked KREMLIN across seven campaigns using malicious browser extensions against Brazilian banking users primarily.
- Ethereum smart contracts let KREMLIN operators update command servers and payload locations without changing malware.
- Elastic observed 1,515 infected systems contacting its registered canary domain, with 98.75% located in Brazil.
- KREMLIN manipulates Chromium Secure Preferences to install malicious Chrome and Edge extensions without user approval.
- Researchers traced 82 USDT transfers through the wallet used to deploy and update malicious contracts.
Elastic Security Labs disclosed the operation in a Sept. 14 technical report after tracking the activity under REF9334 since May 2025. Researchers followed seven campaigns over roughly 15 months and linked the latest versions to Chrome and Microsoft Edge extensions capable of collecting browser credentials, cookies, session tokens and other sensitive information.
SlowMist issued a threat-intelligence alert on Sept. 16 drawing attention to the blockchain component of the operation, including three Ethereum contracts linked to changing command-and-control infrastructure.
Despite the name KREMLIN, Elastic said it found no evidence connecting the campaign to Russia. The toolkit name comes from the malware author’s handle, while the lures impersonate Brazilian banks, use Portuguese-language text and overwhelmingly reach systems located in Brazil.
KREMLIN uses Ethereum contracts as changing address books
Ethereum entered the operation in May 2026, when researchers observed the first malicious smart contract tied to KREMLIN’s infrastructure.
Elastic traced the first contract to May 19. It stored configuration values pointing infected systems toward locations used for the installer and malicious browser extension. Later contracts changed the structure and eventually moved to a key-value configuration model that could be updated by the operator.
The current contract identified by Elastic is 0xCD7360A83E5cdbBbbbcEB0e78748babA6740d07b. Researchers said it remained in use when their report was published. Earlier contracts included 0x902EDbFECFF38f285Bf26283fB9cEB3700061873 and 0x64Def0A6099c4DE9C413B108EAae85A3C7457615.
The contracts do not represent an exploit of Ethereum’s consensus system or smart-contract platform. Elastic found that the attackers used the blockchain as a dead-drop resolver: infected machines read configuration values from the contracts to locate external infrastructure controlled or abused by the operators.
Such a design lets operators change infrastructure references by updating on-chain values while leaving the initial malware unchanged. Elastic recorded contract updates pointing toward different domains and hosted files, including a main-v2 configuration change on Aug. 13.
Crypto.news reported in 2025 that malicious npm packages were using Ethereum smart contracts to retrieve command infrastructure. ReversingLabs researchers described a comparable model in which blockchain data contained locations used to reach attacker-controlled servers.
Microsoft found ClickFix campaigns using BNB Chain smart contracts to retrieve malware instructions. Microsoft’s findings involved a separate campaign but showed another example of public blockchains being used as infrastructure for malware configuration.
Malicious extensions can enter Chrome and Edge without approval
KREMLIN’s browser component uses a technique that lets an unauthorized extension appear properly registered inside Chromium-based browsers.
Elastic said the installer modifies Chrome or Edge’s Secure Preferences data and regenerates the HMACs and encrypted integrity hashes the browser expects. Once those values match, the malicious extension can load even though the user never approved an installation through the official extension store.
The technique itself predates the KREMLIN campaign. Security firm Synacktiv documented the approach in 2025 under research titled The Phantom Extension, showing how an attacker with access to a Windows system could alter Chromium preference records and load an extension through internal browser mechanisms.
KREMLIN operationalized that technique for financial theft. Elastic’s analyzed extension masqueraded as software called AVSync and requested access to tabs, cookies, browser storage and web requests. It could collect saved browser data and intercept information during active web sessions.
The malware gathers browser databases containing login information, cookies and stored form data. Elastic found that it acquired encryption material needed to access protected browser data before sending collected information to attacker-controlled infrastructure.
Initial infection still requires execution of a malicious file. Elastic said the campaign distributes JavaScript files disguised as bank receipts, invoices or corporate documents. Once a victim executes the lure, the loader checks the environment before progressing through later stages.
Brazilian financial brands impersonated in campaign material included Banco do Brasil, Caixa, Bradesco, Sicoob, C6 Bank, Inter, BTG, Safra, PagBank, PicPay, Santander and Mercado Pago.
Elastic counted 1,515 infected hosts after disrupting a kill switch
Elastic gained an unusually direct measure of the campaign’s reach after researchers noticed that KREMLIN checked an unregistered internet domain as part of its anti-analysis process.
The malware was designed to test whether the domain responded. A successful response caused the program to assume it was operating inside an analysis sandbox and terminate itself. Elastic registered the previously unused domain and pointed it to infrastructure the researchers controlled.
Infected machines then began contacting the newly registered address. Elastic counted 1,515 systems at the time of publication, with 98.75% geolocated in Brazil. Researchers said the number was rising quickly.
Registering the domain turned KREMLIN’s own anti-analysis check against the campaign. Machines reaching the domain interpreted the response as evidence of a sandbox and stopped progressing through the infection chain.
Elastic cautioned that the intervention was temporary. “This has temporarily degraded and manipulated the campaign’s defense mechanisms,” the researchers wrote, saying the interruption could give defenders more time to locate and clean affected endpoints.
The systems remained infected, meaning the registration did not automatically remove KREMLIN from compromised computers. Elastic’s report said the affected machines had been prevented from moving beyond the relevant infection stage while the canary remained effective.
The geographic data supports the researchers’ earlier assessment that Brazil is the campaign’s primary target. Portuguese-language filenames, fake error messages and Brazilian financial brands appeared repeatedly across the recovered samples.
Ethereum wallet activity links multiple KREMLIN campaigns
On-chain analysis helped Elastic connect different stages of the malware operation. Researchers identified a single Ethereum wallet used to deploy malicious contracts and update their configurations. The address was financially active before the first KREMLIN-linked contract appeared, giving investigators a transaction trail spanning more than a year.
Between June 19, 2025, and Aug. 24, 2026, Elastic identified 82 USDT transfers associated with the wallet. The recorded activity totaled approximately 20,778.97 USDT received and 19,016.96 USDT sent. Researchers said individual transfers could not be conclusively classified as malware-development funding.
Transaction timing provided another attribution clue. Elastic found that much of the wallet activity lined up with working hours in the UTC-3 time zone used by São Paulo, although the researchers presented Brazil as a plausible operator location instead of a confirmed attribution.
The campaign has changed tooling during its lifespan. Earlier waves distributed PULSAR RAT, while the newer Ethereum-linked branch introduced REMCOS RAT alongside the custom browser extension. Elastic identified two related chains during this period, including one that uses a legitimate signed SentinelOne executable as part of the loading process.
Security teams can use the indicators published by Elastic Security Labs and its accompanying public IOC repository to check endpoint, browser and network telemetry for artifacts tied to the campaign. Elastic mapped the activity to MITRE ATT&CK techniques covering execution, persistence, credential access, browser extensions, command-and-control and data exfiltration.
Brazilian crypto users were targeted by separate WhatsApp-distributed malware in late 2025. That campaign targeted banking, fintech and cryptocurrency credentials but was not linked to REF9334.
Elastic’s latest published blockchain timeline shows KREMLIN’s contract configuration being modified through August, while its infrastructure observations extend into late August 2026. The researchers said the 0xCD7360…d07b Ethereum contract remained in use when the Sept. 14 report was prepared.
Crypto World
Wirex One Launches Publicly on Arc, Bringing Stablecoin Private Banking to the Mass Affluent Market
London, September 16, 2026 – Wirex, the global stablecoin infrastructure provider, has today launched Wirex One, the first stablecoin neobank built for the growing segment of mass affluent consumers, to the public. The platform is a day-one launch partner on Arc’s mainnet, delivering a private banking experience with true asset ownership.
Following a closed beta that amassed over 20,000 users in testing since June, Wirex One is now available globally.
Wirex One launches as part of Wirex’s wider integration with Arc, making Arc available as a settlement layer for any partner issuing cards and accounts through the Wirex API. Arc is an open blockchain network built for the world’s financial markets, real-time money movement, and agentic economic activity.
Wirex One was created for an underserved market. The global private banking market is projected to grow by over 10% annually to reach $1.24 trillion by 2035, yet a large segment of affluent individuals remain structurally underserved: too wealthy for retail banking, but below the minimum for traditional private banking. Stablecoins are closing that gap, enabling secure, borderless wealth management that the traditional financial system cannot provide.
Wirex One brings private banking onchain, managing everyday spending, yield, overseas transfers, borrowing, and investing from a single place. Arc was strategically chosen as the foundation for Wirex One due to its stablecoin-native, payments-optimised design, with a built-in privacy layer and real-time settlement.
Paired with Privy’s non-custodial wallet technology, it gives users complete ownership over their assets and institutional-grade security, without the complexity that typically comes with crypto wallets.
At launch, key features include:
- Stablecoin-funded card with up to 8% cashback in USD, instantly spendable in everyday life
- Access to selected crypto and stablecoin yield features
- Support for a wide range of crypto assets
- Multi-currency accounts, with fee-free FX and ATM withdrawals globally
- Ability to send and receive via SEPA, ACH, Faster Payments, card transfers, and crypto transfers
- Innovative membership model, offering higher rewards, fee-free trading, dedicated account management, and 50% off premium subscriptions for leading AI and financial platforms for higher tiers
Pavel Matveev, Co-Founder & CEO of Wirex, said: “A new wave of fintech apps are being built on stablecoin rails, and they all need the same foundation: regulated issuing, accounts, settlement, and yield. Wirex One is our own consumer platform built on that infrastructure, redefining what a private bank can be: a bank you control, not one that controls you. Every partner integrating with Wirex’s infrastructure gets the same rails, the same scheme access, and now the same day-one access to Arc.”
Today’s announcement is a major milestone in Wirex’s vision to build a unified, onchain suite of financial services for consumers and businesses on their stablecoin infrastructure, which recently reached $2 billion annualised card spend volume. In the coming weeks, Wirex One will expand to include tokenised equities and perpetuals.
More information about Wirex One, including card availability in supported jurisdictions, is available at Wirex’s website.
Developers can learn more about integrating with Wirex’s infrastructure on Arc here. The list of supported countries can be viewed here. Rewards are valued in USD
About Wirex
Wirex is the global stablecoin infrastructure behind a complete banking stack. Through a single API, any app, wallet or fintech can launch regulated accounts, cards, payments, payouts, yield, cashback and travel, settled in stablecoins, on any chain. Wirex is one of the few crypto-enabled platforms with principal membership of both Visa and Mastercard, settling in USDC and EURC without an intermediary bank.
Wirex builds its own products on that same infrastructure, through the same API: Wirex One, a stablecoin neobank for consumers, with Wirex Private as its highest membership tier; Wirex Business for companies; and Wirex Agents, giving AI agents the ability to transact onchain.
Trusted by over 8 million users since 2014, Wirex has processed more than $20 billion in transactions across 130 countries, and created the first crypto-enabled card in 2015. Built on a decade-long track record of regulatory compliance, enterprise-grade security and onchain innovation, Wirex is creating a financial system where money moves globally and instantly, giving consumers and businesses true ownership, privacy by architecture, and access to the next generation of global payments and settlement.
Disclaimers:
Arc is an open L1 blockchain launched by Arc Network Services LLC (“Arc LLC”) and operated by a permissioned validator set. Arc LLC provides software services only and does not offer regulated financial or advisory services. Arc has not been reviewed or approved by the New York State Department of Financial Services or any other regulatory authority.
The Arc network is provided “as is” and “as available.” Use of Arc involves inherent risks associated with blockchain technology, including smart contract vulnerabilities, network disruptions, and the absence of recourse for transaction errors or losses. The ability to transact on Arc depends on the ability to obtain and use USDC to pay gas fees. Neither Arc LLC nor any permissioned validator is responsible for the content, accuracy, legality, or functionality of third-party applications, protocols, or services built on or integrated with Arc. You are solely responsible for features or services you provide to users, including obtaining any necessary licenses or approvals and otherwise complying with applicable laws.
All Arc features may be modified, delayed, or cancelled at any time without notice. Nothing herein constitutes a commitment, warranty, guarantee or legal, regulatory, tax, or investment advice.
The post Wirex One Launches Publicly on Arc, Bringing Stablecoin Private Banking to the Mass Affluent Market appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, according to the Danske Research Team.
The team revised its own call this week and now expects that outcome. For Bitcoin watchers, the key distinction is between market expectations and a confirmed policy decision: the hike is still expected, but it has not yet been delivered.
The research team says tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance, given current market pricing and its longstanding view that rate hikes are eventually on the horizon.
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MARKETS
8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET — Import & Export Prices
10:30 AM ET — 
EIA Oil Inventories
1:00 PM ET — Treasury Auction
2:00 PM ET — 
FOMC RATE DECISION + DOT PLOT
2:30 PM ET — 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference…
At the same time, it does not regard the decision as completely settled. That leaves the meeting relevant not only for the headline rate decision, but also for the details released alongside it.
Readers following FOMC odds into the September rate decision should distinguish between the reported 90% probability and any broader claims about how Bitcoin or other assets are positioned. The supplied research supports the market-pricing estimate, but it does not provide a verified assessment of Bitcoin positioning, leverage, or current price action.
Will the Expected Hike Be the Main Bitcoin Catalyst?
The Danske Research Team identifies the FOMC meeting as the week’s main US event. Alongside its expected 25-basis-point hike, the team expects the Fed to publish updated economic projections and a fresh set of rate projections, commonly called the dot plot.
The vote itself is also worth watching. Danske Research Team expects two or three dissenters in favor of holding rates, even as it maintains its call for a hike. That expectation underscores that the meeting is not a done deal. The final decision and any recorded dissents will provide the clearest evidence of how the committee resolved that tension.
The projections also carry an expected qualification. The team still expects the FOMC to publish the dots even if Fed official Warsh again chooses not to submit personal rate-path views. If that happens, the published material would still be available, but it would not include Warsh’s personal submission.
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What the Fed FOMC Signal Could Mean for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin-focused market analysis, the meeting presents several elements to monitor: the rate decision, the vote count, updated economic projections, and the dot plot.
Available evidence shows that the market strongly expects a hike and that projections and dots are expected to be published. It does not establish a specific Bitcoin reaction to any of those elements.
Commentary about the dot plot, future policy language, or a possible press-conference message should therefore be treated as market interpretation rather than a conclusion supplied by the primary research.
Likewise, it would be premature to describe any particular outcome as bullish or bearish for Bitcoin without independently verified market evidence.
The immediate question is not whether market pricing confirms it. It does not. The reported probability reflects expectations ahead of the meeting, while the FOMC’s decision will determine the actual policy outcome. The same caution applies to claims about risk assets, crypto-market volatility, or how fully expectations are reflected in trading activity.
Make Your Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi
The post Bitcoin’s Next Fed Test Is Today’s FOMC Meeting: Will $75K Hold? appeared first on Cryptonews.
After bolting to a record high in July on a second-quarter earnings beat, Garmin (GRMN) stock stumbled off its peak. A leader in global positioning systems and wearable technology, and rival to Apple (AAPL) in the smartwatch space, Garmin continues to cling to trigger a breakout and cling to key moving averages as it secures a spot on the Investor’s…
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Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a narrow price range as investors wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Selling has slowed, but buying has not been strong enough to push BTC clearly higher.
According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin has traded within a 5.5% range for more than 24 sessions, keeping the market quiet. The report says the next move could depend on whether new demand returns after the Fed decision, as traders have built positions at both ends.
Selling Eases, but Buyers Remain Cautious
About 840,000 BTC have a cost basis within this narrow range, meaning they were bought at prices inside it. Glassnode’s sell-side risk ratio has fallen to seven basis points, showing that long-term holders are taking fewer profits.
Newer investors now account for most of the remaining supply, but trading activity remains low. In other words, sellers have become less aggressive without a strong wave of new buyers stepping in.
Leverage has also built up around the current price levels, which could make any breakout more volatile. CoinGlass data show about $1.95 billion in possible short liquidations near $82,000, while long positions are concentrated around $75,000 to $76,000.
Institutional demand has also weakened, adding another obstacle to a sustained move higher. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $460 million in outflows last week, selling approximately 5,900 BTC, while Ether ETFs took in $196.9 million. September ETF flows remain positive, but recent outflows show weaker institutional demand could limit Bitcoin’s upside.
Inflation Keeps Pressure on the Fed
Inflation is adding another challenge, with August prices rising 0.4% from the previous month and 3.4% over the year. Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but gasoline prices rose 3.9%, and diesel reached $5.65 per gallon.
Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated, especially as Brent crude trades above $100 a barrel and U.S. strategic reserves fall to 285.4 million barrels. This could reduce expectations for easier monetary policy and keep pressure on interest rates.
Markets now see an 88.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16. The U.S. 10-year real Treasury yield has risen to 2.55%, making non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin less attractive to some investors.
The post Bitcoin Stays Stuck as Traders Wait for the Fed’s Next Move appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
LatAm telco VIVA taps Avalanche-based Iris for stablecoin settlement and dollar reserves
Between 2012 and 2025, global mobile data traffic grew more than 50% annually while operator service revenue increased less than 1% per year, according to McKinsey figures cited by Iris.
Telecom operators bring something financial apps often spend heavily trying to build: customers, verified identities and distribution.
That can be particularly powerful in emerging markets.
“In the U.S. the operator is like one rail among many,” Ava Labs Chief Business Officer John Nahas told CoinDesk. In markets such as Bolivia, by contrast, “the mobile carrier is often the rail that people do everything on.”
That is why Iris expects its initial expansion to focus on Latin America and potentially parts of Africa and Asia rather than the U.S., Nahas said.
VIVA offers an early test of whether that model can translate into better economics for carriers. Nahas said a super-app product used by VIVA helped reduce churn among prepaid mobile customers by 33% while increasing their lifetime value by 35%.
“When you start to see numbers like this, it just starts making a lot of sense,” he said, adding that Iris now needs more real-world case studies.
Stablecoins behind telecoms
Iris runs on a dedicated Avalanche Layer 1, giving the network control over its settlement, operating and compliance requirements. USDi serves as the settlement asset, while also giving VIVA the option to hold eligible operating reserves in dollars.
In VIVA’s case, using U.S. dollar stablecoin for settlements also means having the option to hold eligible operating reserves in U.S. dollars, which is particularly relevant in markets with volatile local currencies.
The central point of the deal is Payward is trying to bring a popular offshore and onchain trading product into a regulated U.S. structure while keeping trade matching and recordkeeping on Hyperliquid.
“A U.S. client would open a futures account with Payward’s registered broker and trade new perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid, cleared through the same clearinghouse that already supports the crypto perpetual contracts Payward offers U.S. clients today,” said Jon Pham, head of U.S. derivatives.
Payward acquired Bitnomial in May for $550 million. It bought NinjaTrader Clearing for $1.5 billion in 2025.
Perpetuals are derivative products that allow investors to place positions on the price movements of an underlying digital asset without owning the asset itself. Unlike traditional futures contracts, perps do not expire and can be maintained indefinitely. Traders make or receive periodic funding payments to keep their positions open.
The markets will run on Hyperliquid’s public blockchain, whose onchain order book matches and records trades. Bitnomial Exchange and Bitnomial Clearinghouse would act as the HIP-3 deployer, creating, owning and administering the market and clearing and settling the contracts. NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s registered futures commission merchant, would carry client accounts.
Payward did not disclose a fee schedule, expected trading volumes, details of any economic arrangement with Hyperliquid or a planned launch date. A Kraken spokesperson said it could not speculate on the potential revenue this would bring to the company, and did not address questions about expected trading volumes.
Yesterday morning, the head of the US Treasury proudly reported in front of Congress that the government had just run two of its best bond auctions in decades.
By 1pm, the Treasury conducted its worst 20-year bond auction in history.
On Tuesday, the US government had to pay a record-breaking 5.42% interest yield-to-maturity to sell its auction of 20 year maturity bonds — the most expensive cost of capital the US government has paid for Treasuries of this maturity since modern record-keeping began in 1986.
On a bit of a technicality, the government avoided paying 5.42% interest on the bonds, instead paying 5.125% yet selling them below par to mathematically offer 5.42% de facto yield to purchasers.
Worse, the particular type of investors Washington needs for offloading its sovereign debt — foreign investors — bought the lowest percentage ever of that $13 billion auction.
Record cost to borrow money for 20 years
Bond auctions aren’t complicated. The US Treasury offers IOUs, and buyers around the world name the yield they’ll accept.
At each live auction, yield-to-maturity is focus. The bond’s effective interest rate is the cost of capital for the US government.
The higher the yield, the less creditworthy the US government is in the opinion of bond traders. With $40.1 trillion and rising of outstanding debt that costs taxpayers over $1.1 trillion per year in interest payments, US debt-to-GDP at 123% is a growing concern for bond investors.
Tuesday’s sale was terrible on three counts.
The rate was the start of the disaster. Twenty-year bonds traded around 5.40% minutes before the sale and cleared at 5.42%. In other words, Washington paid more than the open market was charging at the end, just to find sufficient takers to fully clear the auction.
Traders call that additional 0.02% a two basis point “tail,” and it was the worst tail for any 20-year auction since 2024.
Second, the crowd mix was terrible. So-called “indirect bidders” are Treasury auction participants like foreign central banks and overseas buyers.
Like any sovereign, the US wants to sell as much of its debt to buyers abroad as possible.
Instead, indirect bidders took just 52.5% of yesterday’s auction, lower than August’s 62.9% and the lowest percentage on record for any 20-year Treasury auction since the 1980s besides a small, idiosyncratic $25 million special auction in 2021.
Third, the liquidity or depth of demand was thin as well, as measured by the bid-to-cover ratio. Specifically, bids covered yesterday’s bond sale 2.57 times, below the 2.65 average of the previous six auctions.
Read more: How the bond market helped push BTC to all-time high
Did Scott Bessent expect no one would notice?
Given the historically bearish turnout for yesterday’s Treasuries sale, anyone could rightly be curious as to why Secretary Scott Bessent had so little foresight when boasting about the supposed strength of US creditworthiness during yesterday’s Congressional testimony.
To be fair, despite the immediate embarassment, Bessent actually had a real basis for his positive remarks for a few hours prior to 1pm.
Indeed, last week’s 10-year and 30-year bond sales went smoothly.
Indirect bidders took a healthy 79.5% of the $22 billion 30-year bond sale on September 10, for example. That success was true and fleetingly newsworthy.
Questioned at a US House hearing, Bessent leaned in.
“We then proceeded to have the two most successful treasury auctions that we’ve had in 20 years, and the US bond market, since President Trump has come in, has been the best performing bond market in the developed world.”
Connecticut Democrat Jim Himes wasn’t buying it. “Wait, wait, wait. The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?” he asked, hours before the 20-year auction supplied an even worse data point.
Treasury yields provide the floor under which banks price mortgage and corporate borrowing rates. The household version, i.e. the average 30-year mortgage rate in the US, costs homeowners an alarming 6.76%.
Interest expense on the national debt now costs more than $1.1 trillion a year and is the US government’s second biggest expense behind Social Security payments.
The next 20-year US bond auction is scheduled for October 21, 2026.
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The evaluation was based on three key evaluation pillars: Financial Performance, Reputation Analysis, and Online Engagement.
The first dimension, Financial Performance, was assessed through a detailed analysis of financial metrics, such as revenue per employee and funding amount. These metrics provided insight into the financial stability, growth potential, and operational efficiency of the companies. This dimension accounted for 50% of the total score.
The second dimension, Reputation Analysis, evaluated how companies and their digital health solutions are publicly perceived. Using social listening techniques, the analysis captured sentiment, visibility, and perceived credibility by examining publicly available content, such as news coverage, blogs, forums, and social media activity. This dimension contributed 30% to the total score.
The third dimension, Online Engagement, measured the reach and engagement levels of companies through their digital platforms. Website traffic served as the key indicator of user engagement. This dimension made up 20% of the overall score.
Interest rate futures put a 92.7% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates on Wednesday. That leaves traders worried across both the crypto and stock markets. Because Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh with one single promise: cut interest rates. But Warsh can’t deliver that with inflation running at 3.4%
So, how will the market react, and which way will Bitcoin move?
Why a Pause is the Closest thing Warsh can give Trump
The Fed’s target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of no change at 7.3% on Wednesday morning, with zero odds of a cut.
Trump picked Warsh for the job and watched him sworn in at the White House in May. Even ahead of the swearing-in, the president was already treating his would-be chair as an ally.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has argued that Trump pressure and midterms are the only forces still blocking a hike. White House economic adviser Christopher Phelan said a move this week would be a mistake. Midterm elections are seven weeks away.
Former Fed governor Stephen Miran made the data case against hiking in an interview this week.
“If you held in June and July and become more hawkish as the inflation data come down, it speaks to an incoherent reaction function,” he shared.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
What Bitcoin and Gold Did the Last Time the Data Surprised
Rate expectations set the cost of holding assets that pay no interest. Bitcoin and gold both sit in that group, so cheaper money tends to help them.
The Bitcoin price held near $76,022 as of this writing, down 1.17% in 24 hours. Gold traded around $4,340 an ounce, up 1.4% on the day.
The August inflation report on September 11 showed how fast both react. Bitcoin fell from roughly $77,100 to $76,050 inside a minute. Gold slid from $4,353 to $4,292, then recovered.
BeInCrypto flagged hike odds near 90% that day. Pricing has since hardened to 92.7%.
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told the Associated Press that a hike now could pull long-term rates lower later. Warsh’s press conference, not the quarter point itself, is what traders will parse.
The post 93% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Today. What Happens to Bitcoin Now? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
The CLARITY Act did not receive enough support in the US Senate, so it could not move to official discussion. This triggered a correction in the broader cryptocurrency market, while the upcoming FOMC meeting may worsen the sector’s condition.
The prevailing expectation is that interest rates in the USA will rise by 0.25%, yet analyst Ali Martinez assumed the central bank may be forced to keep the benchmark unchanged, which could propel a BTC price rally. Here’s why.
Influence From Trump?
Martinez started his thesis by noting the CLARITY Act failure and describing it as “a major setback for one of Trump’s crypto-policy objectives ahead of the November midterms.”
Then, he revealed that the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike following the FOMC meeting, scheduled for later today (September 16), are roughly 93%, with only a small minority expecting the figure to stay the same.
According to the analyst, the smaller group may actually get it right this time. He pointed to the approaching midterms in the US, arguing that Trump needs a political win and that another rate increase could create more economic pressure, possibly hurting his chances of success.
“That could weigh on Kevin Warsh and the FOMC’s decision-making,” he said.
Martinez thinks that such a surprise move could trigger a powerful rally across risk assets, with BTC (which has rarely risen after the past 14 FOMC decisions) potentially surpassing $82,000.
“This is my wild prediction. Not the consensus view. Trump needs a win. A no-hike decision could give markets exactly the surprise they need to rally,” he concluded.
However, another angle is worth considering. The widely expected rate hike may already be priced in, making Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference the key event to watch. It will take place immediately after the FOMC meeting, and any signals of further rate increases could negatively impact BTC and altcoins. On the other hand, a softer tone and remarks that the central bank has made progress on inflation could lead to a solid rebound.
Massive Shorts Ahead of the Meeting
X user Max Crypto revealed that a mysterious whale opened a $50 million short position on BTC and a $15.8 million short on ETH ahead of the central bank’s crucial decision.
Usually, such major bets fuel speculation that the trader may have access to inside information. However, the whale’s win rate is around 40.6%, meaning their track record is far from flawless.
Meanwhile, another anonymous trader (with a staggering 100% win rate) recently opened multi-million shorts on BTC, ETH, and ZEC before the CLARITY Act vote. As mentioned above, the bill did not move forward for official discussion, and the crypto market headed south.
The post Wild Bitcoin Prediction Ahead of the FOMC: Here’s What Could Trigger a Pump appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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