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Labor Market and Housing Data Raise New Fears of a U.S. Economic Slowdown

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • Layoffs and declining job openings show employers preparing for slower growth and tighter financial conditions 
  • Housing demand is weakening as sellers outnumber buyers, creating a record imbalance and reduced market liquidity 
  • Bond and credit markets reflect rising stress tied to debt levels and long-term growth uncertainty 
  • Rapid disinflation and firm monetary policy increase the risks of tightening into an already fragile economy

 

U.S. economic indicators are showing coordinated signs of strain across labor, housing, and credit markets. Layoffs are rising while hiring slows, reducing job security for many workers. 

Housing demand is weakening as sellers outnumber buyers. Bond and credit markets also reflect growing caution. Together, these trends suggest the economy is entering a fragile late-cycle phase.

Labor and Housing Data Point to Late-Cycle Fragility

Labor and housing data are moving together in a pattern associated with late-cycle slowdowns. January layoff announcements exceeded one hundred thousand, the highest level for that month since the global financial crisis. 

Weekly jobless claims have trended higher, while job openings have fallen to levels last seen in 2020. This combination reduces worker mobility and weakens income security across sectors. 

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Companies are not only cutting staff but also limiting recruitment, with hiring plans reaching record lows for the month. Consumer confidence surveys now reflect growing caution toward discretionary spending and long-term purchases.

Housing markets mirror this shift in behavior. Sellers outnumber buyers by a wide margin, creating the largest recorded gap between supply and demand participants. 

Elevated mortgage rates continue to restrict affordability, while existing owners hesitate to reduce prices because of low-rate loans locked in earlier years. Listings remain visible, yet transactions slow as liquidity dries up. 

This imbalance delays price discovery and increases carrying costs for households and developers.

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Employment weakness directly affects housing demand. Fewer stable incomes mean fewer qualified buyers, placing additional pressure on inventories struggling to clear. 

Together, labor deterioration and housing imbalance suggest that economic momentum is being supported by inertia rather than expanding demand, a condition that historically precedes slowdowns across consumption-driven industries.

Bond, Credit, and Inflation Signals Reinforce Economic Stress

Financial markets are reflecting stress through bond and credit indicators. The Treasury yield curve has entered bear steepening, where long-term yields rise faster than short-term rates.

Investors demand higher compensation to hold extended maturity debt, signaling concern over fiscal deficits and long-term growth expectations. Similar curve movements have preceded economic contractions in previous cycles.

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Corporate credit conditions show parallel weakness. A rising share of lower-quality bonds now trades at distressed levels or faces elevated default risk. 

When financing tightens, firms cut costs, postpone investment, and reduce payroll. These actions feed back into employment and consumer demand, reinforcing pressure already visible in labor data.

Business bankruptcy filings continue to trend upward, reducing liquidity within supply chains and tightening lending standards across financial institutions. Inflation readings have shifted quickly, with real-time measures pointing toward levels near one percent. 

Rapid disinflation increases the risk that consumers delay spending in anticipation of lower prices, slowing transaction activity across goods and services markets.

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Monetary policy remains focused on inflation control despite weakening forward indicators in labor and housing. A restrictive stance during slowing growth raises the probability of misalignment between financial conditions and economic capacity. 

Combined with credit strain and yield curve signals, the environment reflects fragility rather than expansion.

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Marathon Digital moves $87m in BTC as crypto markets slide

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Marathon Digital moves $87m in BTC as crypto markets slide - 1

Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies, has recently executed a significant on-chain movement of Bitcoin worth roughly $87 million amid a broader sell-off in crypto markets.

Summary

  • Marathon Digital moved 1,318 BTC worth about $87 million over a 10-hour period, with funds sent to institutional counterparties, custodial wallets, and a newly created address, according to Arkham data.
  • The transfers came amid a sharp pullback in Bitcoin prices, which briefly dipped toward $60,000, increasing pressure on bitcoin miners.
  • The on-chain activity coincided with a nearly 19% drop in MARA shares in a single Nasdaq session, adding to investor unease across the mining sector.

The activity, captured by on-chain analytics firm Arkham, coincided with a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price and a steep decline in MARA’s stock.

Large BTC transfers spark market speculation

Over a roughly 10-hour period, Marathon Digital moved 1,318 BTC, valued at approximately $86.9 million at the time of transfer, from miner wallets to a mix of trading desks, custodial services, and other wallet addresses.

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According to Arkham data, the largest transfer involved 653.773 BTC, worth about $42 million, sent to an address associated with institutional services provider Two Prime. Additional transfers included 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC to wallets linked to BitGo, totaling roughly $20.4 million.

Another 305 BTC, valued at about $20.7 million, was moved to a newly created wallet whose ownership remains unknown.

Marathon Digital moves $87m in BTC as crypto markets slide - 1
Marathon Digital BTC transfers | Source: Arkham

These on-chain moves drew attention because such large BTC movements during a market downturn are often interpreted as potential precursor actions to sales, hedging, or collateral posting.

The timing of the transfers came amid notable weakness in Bitcoin prices, which briefly dipped toward the $60,000 range before trading in the mid-$60,000s.

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The on-chain activity also added to investor unease as Marathon Digital’s shares plunged. MARA stock fell nearly 19% in a single session on Nasdaq amid mounting pressure on bitcoin miners.

Though large transfers from miner wallets often trigger speculation, they don’t necessarily equate to immediate spot sales on exchanges. Institutional counterparties, lending arrangements, and collateralized trading strategies can all require BTC movements without marking direct liquidation.

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

IBIT’s heavy Bitcoin flows and rising institutional demand collide with growing “harvest now, decrypt later” fears and BMIC’s push for post-quantum wallet security.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded substantial daily trading volume, according to Nasdaq data, as digital asset security concerns related to quantum computing threats gain attention among institutional investors.

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The trading volume spike occurred without a corresponding price decline, a pattern market analysts characterize as a transfer of holdings from retail investors to institutional buyers, according to industry observers. The development suggests Bitcoin’s evolving role in institutional portfolios as a macro hedge asset.

The concentration of digital asset wealth through centralized issuers has raised concerns about vulnerabilities in current cryptographic standards. Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), the encryption method protecting most cryptocurrency assets, faces potential obsolescence with advances in quantum computing technology, according to cybersecurity experts.

Security researchers have identified a threat vector known as “harvest now, decrypt later,” in which encrypted data is collected for future decryption once quantum computing capabilities mature. Nation-state actors are reportedly employing this strategy, according to cybersecurity analysts.

BMIC, a blockchain security project, has positioned itself to address quantum computing threats to cryptocurrency holdings. The project has raised undisclosed funds during its presale phase, according to company announcements.

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The protocol utilizes what the company describes as a “Quantum Meta-Cloud” and AI-enhanced threat detection systems designed to prevent public key exposure during transactions. Traditional cryptocurrency wallets reveal public keys when transactions are signed, creating potential vulnerabilities to future quantum algorithms, according to the project’s technical documentation.

BMIC’s architecture incorporates ERC-4337 Smart Accounts, a wallet standard that eliminates seed phrase requirements while implementing quantum-resistant cryptographic methods, according to the company. The platform offers quantum-secure staking options designed to generate yield without exposing private keys to network participants.

The project’s early funding stage has attracted capital from investors focused on blockchain infrastructure security, according to industry reports. Market observers note a growing focus on post-quantum cryptographic solutions as digital asset valuations increase.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has reached approximately one trillion dollars, protected by cryptographic standards developed before quantum computing emerged as a practical threat. Protocols offering migration paths to post-quantum security standards may command market premiums as institutional adoption increases, according to blockchain analysts.

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The cryptocurrency industry faces pressure to upgrade security infrastructure as quantum computing technology advances. Traditional encryption methods protecting blockchain assets may require replacement with quantum-resistant alternatives within the coming decade, according to estimates from technology researchers.

Cryptocurrency investments carry inherent risks, and presale investments involve additional uncertainties. Investors should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

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Bitcoin Core maintainers face shake-up as Gloria Zhao revokes PGP key

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Bitcoin Core maintainers face shake-up as Gloria Zhao revokes PGP key

Bitcoin Core maintainer Gloria Zhao has revoked her signing PGP key and stepped down, ending a six-year run of mempool-focused work that reshaped transaction policy.

Gloria Zhao has revoked her signing PGP key for Bitcoin Core, confirming her departure from the maintainer role, according to an announcement posted on her GitHub profile on February 5.

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Bitcoin Core maintainers are responsible for reviewing and approving code updates and digitally signing official releases with cryptographic keys.

Zhao joined Brink, a non-profit organization supported by the Human Rights Foundation and Spiral, in January 2021. Her PGP key was added to Bitcoin Core’s trusted-keys file on July 7, 2022, making her a maintainer coinciding with Pieter Wuille’s departure. She was the first known woman in this role, appointed by community consensus, according to Bitcoin Core records.

Zhao specialized in mempool policy, transaction relay, and fee estimation. Her work included package relay (BIP 331), TRUC (BIP 431), RBF, and peer-to-peer protocol improvements designed to reduce inefficiencies and censorship vectors. She contributed hundreds of commits to Bitcoin Core, including pull request reviews and participation in the Bitcoin Core PR Review Club.

Zhao began contributing to Bitcoin Core in 2020. As of August 2025, she had made 837 contributions in the past year across Bitcoin/bitcoin and related repositories, according to GitHub data. In January 2025, Brink announced it was celebrating her four years of full-time work on Bitcoin Core.

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

An analyst warns Bitcoin could revisit ~$38k if past 70% drawdown patterns repeat, while others argue deeper institutional flows may cap the correction nearer 55%–60%.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade under bearish pressure as analysts debate the potential depth of the current correction, with one market observer projecting the cryptocurrency could fall to $38,000 based on historical drawdown patterns.

Bitcoin could fall to the $38k range: analyst

The cryptocurrency has broken below key support levels and extended its decline as part of a corrective phase that began after Bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, according to market data.

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A crypto analyst known as Sherlock posted an analysis on social media platform X examining Bitcoin’s historical bear market drawdowns and their progression over time. The analysis noted that Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle experienced a drawdown of approximately 93% from peak to trough, representing the largest correction in the asset’s history to date.

Subsequent bear markets showed progressively smaller declines, according to the data cited. The 2015 cycle saw a drawdown of about 86%, followed by 84% in 2018 and approximately 77% during the 2022 bear market.

The analyst projected that if this pattern continues, the current cycle could see a drawdown of around 70% from the all-time high, which would place Bitcoin’s bottom near $38,000.

The projection generated significant engagement on X, with some market participants suggesting that increased institutional involvement and market reflexivity could limit downside risk. One response argued that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, the next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60% rather than 70%.

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Sherlock responded that reflexivity can amplify downside moves as well as rallies, cautioning traders against attempting to time purchases at specific bottom targets.

Bitcoin was trading at levels not seen since October 2024, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency last traded around current price levels in October 2023, during the early stages of the previous bull market.

The asset has rebounded from an intraday low but remains under pressure as market participants assess whether the corrective phase has concluded.

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“It’ll Get Worse. It’ll Get Redder.”

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“It’ll Get Worse. It’ll Get Redder.”

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson sought to steady market sentiment during a sharp crypto sell-off, arguing that short-term price pain does not undermine the long-term case for blockchain-based financial systems.

Summary

  • Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warned that crypto markets could face further losses, telling viewers, “It’ll get worse. It’ll get redder,” as digital assets extended a broad sell-off.
  • Hoskinson said he has personally lost more than $3 billion during past market cycles, arguing that his commitment to blockchain development is driven by conviction rather than profit.
  • He said Cardano is entering a commercialization phase, citing full decentralization, completed governance upgrades, and upcoming initiatives such as Hydra and privacy-focused project Midnight.

Speaking during a public livestream from Tokyo, Hoskinson acknowledged worsening market conditions and warned that further volatility could lie ahead. “It’ll get worse. It’ll get redder,” he said, urging developers and investors to focus on building rather than retreating.

“I’ve lost over $3 billion”

Addressing criticism that crypto founders are insulated from downturns, Hoskinson said he has personally absorbed substantial financial losses over the years, estimating them at more than $3 billion.

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“I’ve lost more money than anyone listening to this,” he said, adding that he could have exited the industry long ago but chose to remain involved out of principle rather than financial incentive.

Hoskinson emphasized that his continued participation in the sector is driven by conviction rather than profit, arguing that integrity and long-term vision matter more than short-term market cycles.

Cardano ready for commercialization

Hoskinson said Cardano (ADA) has reached a point where years of infrastructure development are beginning to translate into real-world use cases. According to him, the network is now fully decentralized, with governance mechanisms largely in place.

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“The infrastructure is strong. We’re ready for commercialization,” Hoskinson said.

He highlighted Hydra, Cardano’s layer-2 scaling solution, as well as privacy-focused initiatives such as Midnight and StarStream, positioning them as key components of the ecosystem’s next phase. These projects are aimed at improving throughput, enhancing data protection, and supporting applications beyond speculative trading.

Crypto as a global economic tool

The Cardano founder also broadened his remarks to include a critique of existing financial and political systems, arguing that global economic coordination is becoming increasingly difficult under traditional frameworks.

“The only way to run a world like this is through a cryptocurrency,” Hoskinson said, contending that blockchains provide rule-based systems that reduce reliance on centralized authorities in a more interconnected global economy.

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He framed blockchain adoption as a response to structural shifts driven by artificial intelligence, demographic change, and declining trust in institutions.

Looking beyond the downturn

Hoskinson closed the livestream by urging the crypto community to maintain long-term focus despite ongoing volatility. He stressed that progress should not be judged solely by token prices or short-term sentiment.

“I’ll be with you on the red days and the green days,” he said. “I ain’t going anywhere.”

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Ripple ETF Investors Unfazed by Market Crash as XRP Price Begins Recovery

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XRPUSD Feb 7. Source TradingView


XRP went through some intense volatility but was stopped at $1.54 during its recoveyr attempt.

Unlike investors who use the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to gain exposure to the two market leaders, those opting for the XRP funds seemed unfazed by the latest crypto crash.

Data from SoSoValue shows that the past week ended well in the green for the Ripple ETFs, even though the underlying asset’s price went through some of its darkest periods.

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XRP ETFs Keep Gaining

Recall that the previous business week ended in the red for the XRP funds because of a single trading day – January 29, when investors pulled out nearly $93 million, making it the worst performance in terms of net flows since the products’ inception. The data on Monday shows a minor outflow of just over $400,000, which was rather negligible given the fact that the entire market crumbled once again during that weekend.

However, XRP ETF investors began putting funds back into the financial vehicles, with $19.46 million on Tuesday, $4.83 million on Wednesday, and $15.16 million on Friday, according to SoSoValue. For some reason, the monitoring resource has not updated the data for Thursday, but other websites and reports still show a minor net inflow.

Additionally, the cumulative net inflows for the spot XRP ETFs have grown from $1.18 billion at the end of the previous business week to $1.22 billion as of February 6, showing a net gain of around $40 million.

The spot ETH ETFs bled out around $170 million, while the BTC counterparties are down by $358 million within the same timeframe.

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XRP Price Goes Nuts

The past week or so has been nothing short of a wild rollercoaster ride for the entire crypto market, but Ripple’s cross-border token was at the forefront. Last Saturday, it crashed from $1.75 to $1.50, which was already bad enough given the fact that it traded at $2.40 on January 6.

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However, the bears were not done yet as they initiated a few consecutive leg downs, culminating in a massive plunge to $1.11 (on Bitstamp) on Friday morning. This meant that XRP had dumped by over 50% in just a month.

However, then came the big bounce as some metrics suggested so. In a matter of mere hours, the asset skyrocketed by 40% to $1.54, where it was rejected again and now struggles to remain above $1.40. The data above clearly shows that ETF investors are not to blame for these wild swings, at least not in XRP’s case.

XRPUSD Feb 7. Source TradingView
XRPUSD Feb 7. Source TradingView

 

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Posts $231.6M Inflows After Turbulent Week For BTC

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Posts $231.6M Inflows After Turbulent Week For BTC

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw $231.6 million in inflows on Friday, following two days of heavy outflows during a turbulent week for Bitcoin.

The iShares Bitcoin (BTC) Trust ETF (IBIT) saw $548.7 million in total outflows on Wednesday and Thursday as crypto market sentiment declined to record-low levels, with Bitcoin’s price briefly dropping to $60,000 on Thursday, according to Farside.

Preliminary Farside data show inflows across nine US-based spot Bitcoin ETF products totaling $330.7 million, following three days of collective outflows totaling $1.25 billion.

Bitcoin ETF flows reveal investor sentiment

So far in 2026, IBIT has posted just 11 trading days of net inflows.

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Bitcoin holders and crypto market participants closely watch Bitcoin ETF flows for clues about where the price is headed and whether interest in the asset is rising.

Bitcoin is trading at $69,820 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

It comes as Bitcoin’s price has fallen 24.30% over the past 30 days, with Bitcoin trading at $69,820 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

On Thursday, the IBIT “crushed its daily volume record,” with $10 billion worth of shares trading hands, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

IBIT rebounds on Friday after price plunge

Balchunas added that IBIT dropped 13% on the day, its “second-worst daily price drop since it launched,” with its largest daily price decline at 15% on May 8, 2024.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Adoption
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF soared 9.92% on Friday. Source: Google Finance

However, the IBIT rebounded 9.92% on Friday, closing at $39.68, according to Google Finance.

Related: Google search volume for ‘Bitcoin’ skyrockets amid BTC price swings

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ETF analyst James Seyffart noted on Wednesday that while Bitcoin ETF holders are facing their “biggest losses” since the US products launched in January 2024 — paper losses of around 42% with Bitcoin below $73,000 — the recent outflows still pale compared with the inflows seen at the market’s peak.

Before the October downturn, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows were around $62.11 billion. They’ve now fallen to about $55 billion.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation: Santiment founder