Crypto World
Lido Launches Its First Stablecoin Vault
The new product, EarnUSD, lets users earn yield on their USDC and USDT.
Lido, DeFi’s largest liquid staking protocol by total value locked, has launched EarnUSD, its first stablecoin vault, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.
The new product lets users deposit and earn yield on USDC and USDT. The vault allocates capital automatically across Ethereum-based USD-denominated strategies, including on-chain lending markets, real-world asset (RWA) integrations, and structured positions, per the release.
The move marks a broader focus for the protocol, which is known for being the largest ETH staking provider, with over 8.7 million ETH currently staked.
The launch restructures Lido Earn — which the firm says has attracted almost $250 million in deposits since launching in September 2025 — into two vaults: EarnETH and EarnUSD.
EarnETH, meanwhile, accepts ETH, WETH, and stETH, and distributes deposits across major DeFi protocols including Aave, Uniswap, and Morpho.
The launch of Lido’s stablecoin vault comes as stablecoin supply on Ethereum holds out over $160 billion, per data from DefiLlama. This represents over half over total USD stablecoin supply across all networks, currently at $314.9 billion.
Regulatory momentum — namely the GENIUS Act in the U.S.— has helped drive growth in the sector over the past year.
“Stablecoins are a fundamental part of DeFi, and until now we weren’t serving those users,” said Marin Tvrdić, Earn Partnerships at the Lido Ecosystem Foundation. “That changes today with EarnUSD.”
As part of the launch, the Lido DAO has voted to allocate $5 million from its treasury into the vaults alongside users, on the same terms. If a vault suffers losses, the DAO’s position absorbs them first, according to the release.
The move follows a DAO proposal from December that outlined a $60 million budget to expand Lido’s product offering beyond liquid staking, as reported by The Defiant.
Lido currently holds around $19 billion in TVL, according to DefiLlama, making it the largest liquid staking protocol in DeFi. The vast majority of its TVL is on Ethereum.
Lido’s TVL is down over 50% from its all-time high of over $42 billion reached last August amid ETH’s rally to a new all-time high, and increased regulatory clarity.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Startup VeryAI has raised $10 million in a seed funding round led by Polychain Capital to launch a palm-scan identity verification system designed to distinguish real users from AI-generated accounts.
The platform records identity attestations on Solana and aims to help crypto exchanges, fintech companies and online platforms address growing risks from bots, deepfakes and synthetic identities. The company said zero-knowledge proofs allow users to verify their status across platforms without revealing personal information.
The system captures palm images using a smartphone camera and converts them into encrypted biometric signatures used to confirm that a user is human without storing identifiable data.
According to the company, palm biometrics are highly distinctive and less publicly exposed than facial features commonly used in identity checks. The scans are converted into irreversible feature representations rather than stored images, preventing the original biometric data from being reconstructed.
“We’re entering a period where the internet can no longer assume that every account, message, or video is created by a real person,” Zach Meltzer, founder and CEO of VeryAI, told Cointelegraph. “AI is powerful, but it also breaks many of the trust assumptions that the internet was built on.”
He said crypto platforms are vulnerable to these risks, citing examples such as sybil attacks during onboarding, fake accounts farming token incentives and impersonation scams targeting users and project communities.
The goal isn’t just to prove that a human exists somewhere — it’s to help platforms verify that a real person is present and acting authentically.
The company is already working with organizations including MEXC, Colosseum, Clique and Talus, with other centralized exchanges and wallets preparing to integrate the palm verification system, Meltzer said.
Investors in the round included the Berggruen Institute and Anagram. Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of the Solana blockchain, also joined as an angel investor.
Related: Crypto ATM losses surge 33% in 2025 as AI superpowers scams: CertiK
AI-generated identities push demand for proof-of-human systems
As artificial intelligence continues to blur the line between human and automated activity on the internet, some developers say blockchain-based identity systems could help restore trust in digital interactions.
Chris Dixon, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and founder of the venture capital firm’s a16z crypto investment arm, last year warned that an “ocean of AI-powered deepfakes and bots” could erode trust across the internet and suggested blockchain systems could help address the problem through cryptographic verification of identity and digital content.
One company trying to address the problem is World, co-founded by Sam Altman, which uses biometric iris scans to generate a digital identity that allows users to prove they are human without revealing personal data. The system records proof of a user’s uniqueness on a blockchain network while the Orb device scans a person’s face and iris to verify identity, though the biometric approach has drawn criticism from privacy advocates.
As AI advances, interest in these systems appears to be growing. In January, the token linked to World (WLD) jumped about 40% after reports that OpenAI was exploring a bot-free social media platform that would require users to verify they are human before participating.
Some developers argue that identity verification must balance authentication with privacy protections. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for models that allow users to prove specific attributes, such as uniqueness or eligibility, without revealing their full identity using technologies like zero-knowledge proofs.
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In today’s newsletter, Ganna Vitko, president of the Toronto Chapter of Women in Crypto, takes us through accounting rules that are in place for crypto and digital assets and some of the challenges of dealing with these new assets.
Then, in Ask an Expert, Aaron Brogan of Brogan Law answers questions about token issuance and its tax implications.
The accounting and auditing challenges for crypto funds: a glimpse into the EU and US markets
The crypto market poses significant challenges for auditors and accountants in all jurisdictions. These are some of them.
What to Know:
- Since digital assets do not fit neatly into existing Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) frameworks, there’s a lot of uncertainty around their classification, valuation, and disclosure in both the EU and the U.S.
- While the EU is slowly moving toward better standardization through new regulations, the U.S. continues to rely on interpretive approaches.
- All of this leaves auditors, accountants, and fund managers to navigate higher inconsistency and risk.
The finance industry has undergone an extraordinary metamorphosis in the past decade. With digital assets becoming full-fledged parts of the financial ecosystem, every market player has had to adapt to new circumstances.
No one has had it more difficult than auditors and accountants. Specifically, conventional audit and accounting practices — based on the traditional financial instruments and reliable infrastructure — are not enough to contend with the ever-changing world of digital wallets and distributed ledgers.
Below, we’ll discuss some of the most prevalent challenges that auditors and accountants are facing, both in the U.S. and in the EU.
The core of the issues
At the heart of crypto accounting and auditing issues lies a fundamental mismatch: digital assets simply do not fit into long-established frameworks. For instance, under the U.S. GAAP and the IFRS, assets are grouped into clearly defined categories such as cash, securities, derivatives, or intangibles.
However, cryptocurrencies defy such straightforward classifications. Are they financial instruments? Intangible assets? Or should they be seen as inventory? Despite recent attempts, not many jurisdictions have managed to fully define them.
This lack of clarity has several negative effects, as it shapes how crypto holdings are validated, when impairments are recognized, and how gains and losses are actually recorded in financial statements.
Regulatory pressure and enforcement trends
We have to note that this accounting and custody ambiguity is unfolding in an environment where regulatory scrutiny is at an all-time high. While not all SEC enforcement actions relate directly to crypto or audit failures, recent data on accounting and auditing enforcement offer a useful window into the compliance conditions that digital asset funds now operate in.
The data in the table above reveal a notable shift in enforcement dynamics. For one, it is clear that the number of respondents in accounting and auditing cases declined in fiscal year 2024. However, the average settlement amounts increased significantly, especially for individual respondents. This pattern points to a shift away from broad-based enforcement and a move toward fewer cases with higher financial stakes. That, in turn, increases the personal and professional risk for everyone involved.
On the other hand, Europe is moving along a markedly different path. As Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) enters phased implementation and supervisory coordination strengthens across all member states, the emphasis is slowly shifting to formalized compliance frameworks and standardized reporting obligations.
Thus, there is a contrast in regulatory mechanics between these jurisdictions. In the U.S., enforcement intensity ebbs and flows with policy direction and case selection. On the other hand, EU codification is advancing through structured legislative harmonization. Both of these dynamics shape the governance environment in distinct but consequential ways for crypto fund managers and their auditors alike.
Looking ahead: best practices and innovation
Amid regulatory and technical uncertainty in the EU and the U.S., market participants are doing their best to proactively adopt best practices. They include:
- Regular third-party attestation of reserves
- Independent valuation providers using multi-exchange pricing
- Enhanced internal controls over crypto operations
- Investment in audit technologies that leverage blockchain analytics.
Auditors and accountants themselves are expanding their skills and partnering with specialists, which is a big step in the right direction.
Conclusion
At the moment, accounting and auditing for crypto funds are at a crossroads. Issues such as fragmented regulation, volatile markets, and novel custody arrangements all strain legacy financial frameworks. In the EU, new regulations signal a move toward better harmonization, while the U.S. largely continues to rely on creativity and interpretive approaches.
For auditors and accountants alike, navigating these waters demands more technical knowledge and active engagement with all emerging guidance. In the end, matters will get better once more improved frameworks pop up. Only they can enhance transparency, reduce risk, and support sustainable growth in the crypto fund ecosystem.
– Ganna Vitko, president, Toronto Chapter of Women in Crypto
Ask an Expert
Q. My client is considering launching a meme coin. What should they take into account?
The SEC has provided guidance that it does not consider certain “meme coins” to be securities. If a client wishes to sell these tokens, they should be aware that the tax treatment of meme coin sales is not equivalent to an exempt securities offering. IRC § 1032 says that proceeds from stock are not taxable income, but this is a statutory creation with no crypto analogue. If your client sells meme coins, they may owe ordinary income tax.
Q. How might this change in the future?
There has been a push among crypto legal practitioners, such as Miles Jennings, to re-shore cryptocurrency projects. However, many projects prefer to make offerings offshore in part to attempt to avoid the tax burden of issuing in the United States. Tax is a live policy issue among crypto lobbyists in Washington, D.C., and a solution to the issuance conundrum could be the subject of future legislation.
– Aaron Brogan, managing attorney, Brogan Law
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Crypto World
Circle (CRCL) outpaces crypto stocks as stablecoin thesis gains momentum: William Blair
Circle (CRCL) has recently outperformed other crypto-linked equities, a move investment bank William Blair said reflects more than shifting macro conditions.
“It is tempting to ascribe recent strength to surging oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” wrote analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury in a Thursday note to clients.
“We think there is more at play, however, including USDC market cap resilience despite a crypto drawdown and growing appreciation of Circle’s economic model and stablecoin infrastructure leadership,” the analysts said.
The bank reiterated its outperform rating on the stock, arguing the rally, which has lifted shares roughly 126% from a February low, reflects improving sentiment toward stablecoin infrastructure rather than short-term market noise.
The shares were 1.2% higher at publication time, trading around $114.20.
Crypto-linked equities have broadly tracked, and often amplified, the recent downturn in digital assets, with shares of exchanges, miners and crypto-treasury companies falling as bitcoin retreated from its late-2025 highs.
Stocks such as Coinbase (COIN) and other crypto-exposed firms have typically moved in tandem with digital asset prices, reflecting the sector’s tight linkage to trading volumes and token valuations, and in some cases declining even more sharply than the underlying assets during market stress.
Japanese bank Mizuho said in a report last week that part of Circle’s rally may be tied to the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude prices could stoke renewed inflation concerns, the bank said, potentially dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
William Blair analysts said investors had previously been too bearish on Circle amid regulatory uncertainty and expectations for interest rate cuts. Now, the firm sees signs that the market is beginning to recognize the company’s core thesis: stablecoins could become a key layer of global payments infrastructure.
USDC could emerge as one of a handful of dominant standards in cross-border commerce, citing its liquidity, first-mover advantage and integration across crypto networks, according to the analysts.
The report also pointed to growing activity across Circle’s payments and infrastructure stack, including its stablecoin payments network, as evidence that the market for stablecoin-based settlement is beginning to take shape.
While other companies and tech platforms have floated launching their own stablecoins, the report said Circle’s minting, cross-chain transfer and payment orchestration infrastructure could provide a durable competitive moat as the sector develops.
Read more: How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle’s stock
Crypto World
Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum’s key use case is a ‘public bulletin board,’ not just smart contracts
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says the crypto industry may be overcomplicating what blockchains are actually good for.
In a post on X after attending the Real World Crypto conference — which focuses on cryptography research — Buterin said stepping outside the typical blockchain bubble helped him rethink Ethereum’s core role.
Instead of starting with Ethereum and trying to find places to use it, he suggested developers should first ask what kinds of tools are needed to build secure, open and censorship-resistant technology.
From that perspective, Ethereum’s most important function may be surprisingly simple: acting as what cryptographers call a “public bulletin board.”
Many secure digital systems need a place where information can be publicly posted and verified. That could include things like secure voting systems, lists of revoked digital certificates or records used in cryptographic protocols. These systems don’t necessarily need complicated smart contracts or financial transactions, but instead a shared place where data can be reliably stored and accessed.
Ethereum can serve that role because it provides a decentralized network where anyone can publish data and anyone can read it.
Buterin said recent upgrades to Ethereum are making this type of use even more practical. One upgrade, known as PeerDAS, increases how much data the network can store and share, with plans to scale capacity much further in the future.
While these systems don’t always require payments, some kind of economic cost is often needed to prevent spam in open networks. That’s where Ethereum’s native token, ether (ETH), comes in.
Payments can help protect decentralized services from abuse. Buterin gives as an example if a messaging app allowed anyone to create unlimited accounts for free, attackers could flood the system with spam. Requiring small payments in ETH can make that kind of attack expensive while still keeping the system open to anyone.
Buterin also noted that Ethereum can help power new types of payment systems. Technologies like zero-knowledge payment channels could allow people to pay small amounts for services while keeping transactions private.
Smart contracts still play an important role as well, particularly for holding security deposits or enabling automated agreements between users.
Taken together, Buterin described Ethereum as a kind of “global shared memory” — infrastructure that allows many different applications to store data, exchange value and coordinate with each other.
“Ethereum has a lot of value, that you can see from first principles if you take a step back and see it purely as a technical tool: global shared memory,” he wrote.
Read more: Vitalik Buterin pushes ‘DVT-Lite’ to make Ethereum validator setup easier
Prediction market firms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have a new set of guidelines for U.S. operation, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission laying out initial guidance and a proposed permanent rule Thursday for what the agency called “a proven source of reliable information for news media, sports leagues, financial institutions, and everyday Americans.”
The agency had once been a legal adversary of the prediction markets, warning that certain betting ran afoul of derivatives laws and that the CFTC couldn’t function as a global policy force combating fraud and manipulation in political markets all over the world. But under Chairman Mike Selig, the CFTC abandoned its old legal fight and embraced the firms. It’s now issued a non-binding staff advisory to the prediction market firms regulated by the CFTC as “designated contract markets,” and started a binding rule process.
“This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, while reassuring the American people that the CFTC will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets,” Selig said of the regulatory process which is starting with what’s known as an “advanced notice of proposed rulemaking.”
Selig, who can operate as the sole authority at the regulator because he’s the only member of what’s meant to be a five-person commission, quickly moved to push the new policy effort. He’s also been waging a rhetorical campaign against state regulators who claim authority over sports betting, saying his agency is the primary regulator of that space. Numerous states sued prediction market providers alleging they’re also subject to their jurisdiction, at least for sports-related bets, and Selig filed a recent court brief arguing the CFTC holds sole jurisdiction.
The CFTC’s new advisory lays out how DCMs — a list that includes Kalshi, Coinbase and Polymarket — should get trading products cleared with the regulator and it says the firms should only handle “trading contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.”
It also noted that the firms that are listing sports contracts should engage in “communications with such relevant sports governing bodies or authorities when developing terms and conditions, compliance and market oversight programs for sports-related events contracts.”
The agency’s rulemaking initiative, though, is much more complex and will likely take months to put into place. At this stage, the CFTC is seeking public comments about how it should proceed. The next step will be a more fleshed-out proposal, and then a final rule, each a lengthy process under administrative law.
The agency has put a 45-day deadline on comments, which is relatively fast, suggesting a speedy timeline.
The prediction markets are platforms in which users can buy and sell contracts that bet on a typically binary outcome, such as the winner of a sporting contest or the victor in an election. Selig has argued that the process belongs in the hands of the derivatives watchdog in the same way that futures contracts do.
The initial rulemaking document underlines that firms engaging in this business have a legal responsibility to police their activity for market manipulation, as evidenced recently by Kalshi’s announcement it had punished a couple of its customers.
The rulemaking text noted “the number of applications for DCM registration has more than doubled over the past year, largely from entities that are interested primarily, or exclusively, in operating prediction markets.” At this stage, the 32-page document poses a series of questions to help outline what direction the more concrete proposal should take.
Read More: Senate Democrats push prediction market limits, including banning bets on war, death
TLDR
- The CFTC issued a staff advisory and launched a formal rulemaking process for prediction market platforms.
- Chairman Mike Selig said the agency will exercise exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in the United States.
- The regulator set a 45-day deadline for public comments on its advanced notice of proposed rulemaking.
- The advisory requires designated contract markets to list contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.
- The CFTC directed platforms offering sports contracts to communicate with relevant sports governing bodies.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued new guidance for prediction market firms operating in the United States. The agency released a staff advisory and launched a formal rulemaking process. The move follows a shift in policy under Chairman Mike Selig and sets a 45-day deadline for public comment.
CFTC Outlines New Framework for Prediction Markets
Chairman Mike Selig directed the agency to publish a non-binding staff advisory for designated contract markets. The advisory explains how platforms must seek approval for new trading products. It also states that firms should list contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.
Selig said, “This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act.” He added that the agency will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. The commission issued the document as an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking and invited public input.
The CFTC stated that the number of applications for DCM registration has more than doubled in the past year. It said many applicants seek to operate prediction market platforms. The 32-page document presents questions that will guide a future proposal and later, a final rule.
The agency set a 45-day window for public comments on the proposal. That timeline suggests the regulator wants to move the process forward quickly. The next stage will include a detailed proposal followed by a final rule under administrative law.
Polymarket and Kalshi Adjust to New Oversight
The advisory applies to DCMs that include Kalshi, Coinbase, and Polymarket. The CFTC directed these firms to follow clear procedures when listing new contracts. It also reminded them of their legal duty to monitor trading activity for manipulation.
Kalshi recently announced that it punished two customers for rule violations. The agency cited that action as evidence that platforms must police their markets. The CFTC stated that firms engaging in this business carry responsibility under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The guidance also addresses sports-related contracts listed on these platforms. The CFTC said firms should communicate with relevant sports governing bodies when developing terms and oversight programs. The agency linked that requirement to compliance and market integrity standards.
Selig now leads the CFTC as its only sitting commissioner. The commission is designed to have five members, yet only Selig currently serves. He has argued in court filings that the CFTC holds sole jurisdiction over sports event contracts.
Several states have sued prediction market providers over sports-related offerings. Selig filed a recent brief asserting federal authority in that area. The agency continues to collect comments before drafting the next phase of its rule proposal.
The strategic investment is the latest in a string of Bitcoin infrastructure bets by the stablecoin giant.
USDT issuer Tether has made a strategic investment in Ark Labs, the team developing Arkade, a programmable infrastructure layer for Bitcoin.
The $5.2 million funding round is aimed at expanding stablecoin access on the Bitcoin network and brings the total funding raised by Ark Labs to $7.7 million. Arkade is designed to enable instant, programmable transactions on Bitcoin for both retail users and financial institutions, positioning the network as a more viable platform for everyday payments and commerce.
“Improving access to USD₮ on the most secure and widely recognized blockchain supports greater financial inclusion, more efficient cross-border payments, and stronger global liquidity,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino in a blog post.
Ark Labs CEO Marco Argentieri said Bitcoin has long lacked the programmable infrastructure needed for financial applications, and that Tether’s involvement would help accelerate development of payments, lending, and digital asset solutions being built on Arkade.
The Ark Labs deal is part of a broader infrastructure push. Last week, Tether led a $7.5 million raise for Utexo, a startup building Bitcoin-native USDT settlement rails using Lightning and RGB technology.
Launched in 2014, USDT has grown into the dominant force in the stablecoin market. USDT currently has a market cap of roughly $183 billion, making it the largest circulating stablecoin.
The stablecoin sector’s rapid growth has been driven in part by regulatory clarity, with the GENIUS Act signed into law in July 2025, creating the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S.
OP Labs, the main developer firm supporting the Optimism ecosystem, has laid off 20 employees as part of an internal restructuring aimed at sharpening the organization’s strategic focus, according to a message shared by the group’s leadership.
In a post on X, CEO of OP Labs Jing Wang said the decision followed internal discussions with affected staff and was communicated to employees before being disclosed publicly. The company said the layoffs were driven by a need to “narrow our focus,” rather than financial constraints.
“This is not about finances,” she said in a Slack message she shared alongside her post. “OP Labs is well capitalized with years of runway.”
Instead, she suggested that the move was intended to streamline decision-making and “do fewer things … exceptionally well.”
The OP token is down roughly 3% over the last 24 hours.
OP Labs plays a central role in the development of Optimism, an Ethereum layer-2 scaling network designed to make transactions faster and cheaper by processing activity off the Ethereum main chain. The broader Optimism ecosystem now includes several high-profile chains built on its technology stack, including Coinbase’s Base, Uniswap’s Unichain and Sony’s Soneium.
CoinDesk reached out to OP Labs for comment and to clarify the percentage of staff that was laid off.
Read more: Optimism’s OP token falls after Base moves away from the network’s ‘OP stack’ in major tech shift
As traders are loading up on XRP long positions, one metric signals that it may be time to pay attention.
There’s encouraging data emerging for XRP traders from the order books of perpetual futures exchanges like Binance Futures, Bybit, and OKX, as well as their decentralized counterparts like Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter.
Referencing a graph from CoinAnk, popular data analyst CW8900 noted that the number of long positions in XRP has been increasing and has now exceeded the number of short positions.
$XRP‘s long positions have increased, exceeding the size of short positions.
Expectations for $XRP‘s rise are growing. pic.twitter.com/xMnIAEcQqs
— CW (@CW8900) March 12, 2026
But what does this mean for the XRP price? Well, usually, in a vacuum scenario, when there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up. Of course, that’s incredibly simplified, and it would only hold if these orders are coming from market makers. Market takers could place buying orders at higher prices, but they wouldn’t be executed unless the price actually rises. In all fairness, though, an increasing number of long positions is almost always a good sign, especially if it persists.
This comes at a time when Ripple’s fundamentals are also looking good. For instance, in the last week alone, the company said it would pursue a strategic acquisition to obtain a financial license in Australia, was listed on Mastercard’s new crypto-focused platform, and announced a massive share buyback.
That said, there are some worrying signs as well. As CryptoPotato reported earlier this week, open interest has been dropping across several exchanges. This metric represents the total number of futures contracts that remain active in the market. When it declines, this usually means that traders are reducing exposure. So while the number of long positions went up, the broader open interest went down, meaning that an increase in price is far from certain.
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- ADA traded near $0.26 as bulls looked to break above a key resistance line.
- Open interest hovered around $414 million, sharply down over the past month.
- ADA price could drop to $0.22 or lower if bears strengthen.
Cardano’s ADA remains under pressure as buyers struggle to regain momentum, with the token retreating from a key technical resistance level near $0.26.
The cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% year to date.
The decline has also pushed Cardano out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, after Hyperliquid (HYPE) climbed to around $38 and moved into the 10th position on CoinMarketCap.
As of March 12, 2026, Hyperliquid’s market capitalisation stood at about $9.6 billion, slightly ahead of Cardano’s $9.4 billion.
The ranking shift could reverse if a potential recovery driven by bullish network-related developments supports ADA’s price.
Otherwise, the prevailing downtrend could push the altcoin toward new multi-month lows.
Cardano open interest falls to $414 million
Cardano’s ADA has trended lower since reaching a peak of $1.01 in August 2025, with derivatives market data reflecting the weakening momentum.
Over the past several months, Cardano’s open interest has declined sharply from about $1.87 billion when the token rallied above $1.
By October 2025, open interest in outstanding ADA futures contracts had fallen to roughly $1.5 billion, before dropping further to around $842 million by mid-January 2026.
The metric now stands at approximately $414 million as of March 12, 2026.
Open interest typically falls as leveraged positions unwind, indicating reduced participation from speculative traders.
The decline of more than 50% from January levels suggests that confidence in ADA’s near-term price outlook has weakened, aligning with the token’s broader bearish trend.
ADA price outlook: bulls face downtrend risk
Cardano price hovers near the resistance line of a parallel channel formed since Feb. 26.
Prices slipped below $0.27 earlier this month amid comments from founder Charles Hoskinson.
From a technical analysis point of view, a breakout looks likely as bulls hold onto support near the trendline.
However, sellers have shown conviction, keeping ADA within a channel formation in place since October 2025.
In terms of the short-term outlook, momentum indicators on the daily chart reinforce the downward risk.
As can be seen below, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals weakness under the 50 mark, while the MACD also suggests buyers’ indecision could play into bears’ hands.
Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day SMAs indicate downward strength.
Cardano’s price is down more than 20% YTD and 70% in the past six months.
This means that failure to strengthen its recovery could risk ADA plunging to year-to-date lows of $0.22.
If price breaks below this level, ADA could face a deeper bearish setup.
However, if gains across crypto and network-related developments boost a fresh uptick, it could invalidate this outlook.
Breaking above the downtrend line and closing above $0.28 would embolden buyers, with key targets at $0.30 and $0.33.
Even then, bulls may need to reclaim $0.45 as support to retake control.
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