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Markets Signal Stress as El Salvador Sticks to Its Bitcoin Playbook

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear market has weighed heavily on investors across the spectrum. Corporate treasuries, major whales, and even nation-state holders have all felt the pressure.

The cryptocurrency’s slide has slashed the value of El Salvador’s holdings as credit default swaps rise to a five-month high, raising concerns over the country’s IMF program and debt outlook.

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bet Under Pressure as Portfolio Drops

According to the latest data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the country’s Bitcoin reserves stand at 7,560 BTC, worth approximately $503.8 million. Bloomberg reported that the portfolio’s value has fallen from around $800 million at Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, marking a drop of nearly $300 million in just four months.

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings.
El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

Bukele, an ardent Bitcoin advocate, has continued purchasing one Bitcoin per day. However, this strategy increases the country’s exposure to market volatility.

In contrast, Bhutan recently sold $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin. The divergent strategies of El Salvador and Bhutan reflect fundamentally different risk philosophies. 

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Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining operations generated more than $765 million in profit since 2019. However, the 2024 Bitcoin halving significantly increased mining costs, compressing margins and reducing returns. Bhutan now appears to be liquidating part of its holdings, while El Salvador continues to prioritize long-term accumulation.

Nonetheless, the country has also diversified its portfolio. Last month, it spent $50 million to acquire gold as demand for the safe-haven metal rose amid macroeconomic tensions.

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IMF Loan Talks Face Strain Over El Salvador’s Bitcoin Policy

El Salvador’s deepening commitment to cryptocurrency has impacted relations with the International Monetary Fund. The government’s continued Bitcoin purchases, combined with delays in implementing pension reforms, have complicated the country’s IMF agreement. 

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The Fund has expressed concern about Bitcoin’s potential impact on fiscal stability. A disruption to the IMF program would weaken one of the key supports behind El Salvador’s sovereign debt recovery. Over the past three years, the country’s bonds have returned more than 130%, making them one of the standout turnaround stories in emerging markets.

“The IMF may take issue with disbursements potentially being used to add Bitcoin. Bitcoin being down also doesn’t help to ease investors’ concerns,” Christopher Mejia, an EM sovereign analyst at T Rowe Price, told Bloomberg.

The IMF approved a 40-month Extended Fund Facility on February 26, 2025, unlocking about $1.4 billion in total, according to official IMF documentation. The first review ended in June 2025, with $231 million disbursed.

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However, the second review has remained on hold since September, following the government’s delay in publishing a pension system analysis. During that period, El Salvador continued to add to its Bitcoin reserves despite repeated warnings from the IMF. 

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A third review is scheduled for March, with each review tied to additional loan disbursements.

“The continued purchase of Bitcoin, in our view, does create some potential challenges for the IMF reviews. The market would react quite poorly if the anchor provided by the IMF were no longer present.” Jared Lou, who helps manage the William Blair Emerging Markets Debt Fund, said.

Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling rising concern over El Salvador’s fiscal outlook. Credit default swaps have climbed to a five-month high, reflecting increasing investor anxiety about the country’s repayment capacity.

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According to data compiled by Bloomberg, El Salvador faces $450 million in bond payments this year, with obligations increasing to nearly $700 million next year.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy now sits alongside key fiscal and IMF negotiations. The outcome of upcoming IMF reviews and the country’s bond repayment schedule will play a significant role in shaping investor confidence and the sustainability of its debt trajectory.

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90% Rally Setup Returns, But With a Twist

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Divergence Setup

Polygon price is showing fresh signs of recovery after weeks of steady selling. Since February 11, POL is up nearly 13%, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 5.4%, holding most of its rebound near $0.095.

At first glance, the structure looks similar to the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this year. Price is stabilizing, momentum is improving, and buyers are active near support. But this time, one critical element is missing. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out. This time, that flush has not happened yet.

POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush

Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear bottom. Between December and early January, the POL price printed a sharp lower low in a single move. Sellers capitulated. Weak hands exited. That created a clean base for buyers to step in.

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This time, the structure is different.

Between January 31 and February 11, POL again made a lower low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures buying and selling strength, and this bullish divergence usually signals that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of one decisive breakdown candle, POL tested the same support area twice.

Divergence Setup
Divergence Setup: TradingView

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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” instead of a clean lower low.

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That matters. When a market prints a single deep low, it usually means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the price keeps revisiting the same level, it means sellers are still active. Supply has not been fully absorbed yet. So even though the technical pattern looks similar, the psychology is different.

The market has stabilized, but it has not been fully cleansed. That unfinished seller flush is the foundation of the entire twist.

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Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure

This incomplete flush is clearly visible in the derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.

Open interest on Binance jumped from around $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising more than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into long positions as soon as the price turned. This time, that has not happened. Since February 11, while POL gained nearly 13%, open interest has stayed near $18.80 million. There is no strong buildup of leverage yet. Possibly hinting at low conviction.

Open Interest Steady
Open Interest Steady: Santiment

More importantly, funding rates are now negative, near -0.012. Funding rates show which side dominates futures markets. Negative rates mean short traders are paying longs. That signals growing bearish positioning.

In January, funding was positive. Traders were betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are building.

This fits perfectly with the price structure. Because sellers have not been flushed out, traders are still comfortable betting against the rally. They see unfinished downside risk. So instead of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a major hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.

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Funding Rate
Funding Rate: Santiment

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This keeps leverage restrained and momentum controlled. The rally is moving forward, but under constant pressure.

Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation

While traders remain cautious, large holders are behaving differently. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are accumulating quietly.

Their buying is the main reason the price keeps rebounding from the $0.087 area.

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POL Whales
POL Whales: Santiment

But whale accumulation has another effect. It absorbs supply without triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their coins. That stabilizes the price but delays capitulation. It is worth noting that during the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly increased their stash.

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So the market ends up in between:

  • Sellers are still present (not flushed out)
  • Buyers are active
  • No one is fully in control of the Polygon price

This is why the price is rising gradually, not explosively. And that might limit the rally potential going forward.

Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed

With unfinished selling pressure still in the system, price levels now matter more than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.

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A clean break above $0.118 would signal that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From current levels, that would be another 24% move. It would likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, finally completing the flush. Above that, targets open toward $0.137 and $0.186.

Polygon Price Analysis
Polygon Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the critical support zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks below that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one starts forming. That would confirm that sellers still have control and that the unfinished flush is playing out. In that case, the price could slide toward $0.072 and $0.061.

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Binance’s CZ rejects “fake news” claim of 60,000 BTC BitMEX hedge profits

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Wintermute Dismisses Claims Binance Caused October Crash

CZ denies Binance ever traded on BitMEX or booked 60,000 BTC in hedge profits during the March 2020 crash, calling the viral allegation “fake news” and technically impossible.

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has moved to quash fresh allegations that the exchange secretly booked more than 60,000 BTC in profits by hedging client risk on BitMEX during the March 2020 crash, dismissing the claim as “fake news” and emblematic of the rumor‑driven warfare that still defines much of crypto trading culture.

CZ pushes back on BitMEX hedge narrative

Responding to a viral post from Flood, CEO of fullstack_trade on Hyperliquid, CZ said the allegation that Binance hedged flow on BitMEX for over 60,000 BTC in profit during the Covid‑era liquidation cascade was entirely fabricated. “4. Fake news. They just making things up randomly now. Not sure what their goal is. I feel bad for the people believing this without seeing any proof,” he wrote, adding bluntly that “Binance never traded on BitMex.” Zhao tagged BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes to underline a key operational constraint at the time, noting that “BitMex processes withdrawals only once a day,” a structure that would have made real‑time risk‑hedging of that magnitude effectively impossible.

BitMEX and traders call claim “impossible”

Market participants quickly weighed in to deconstruct the 60,000 BTC storyline. “Exactly. BitMEX’s once-a-day withdrawal window back in 2020 made it impossible for an exchange to use it for a real-time hedge of that size,” commentator Murtuza J. Merchant argued, stressing that “no entity would trap 60,000 BTC in a manual multi-sig during a black swan crash.” He suggested the “60k figure is likely just a garbled memory of old” market anecdotes rather than a verifiable trade record. BitMEX itself has since confirmed that it has no records supporting the alleged flows and pointed to its upgrade from once‑daily batched withdrawals to real‑time payouts as part of broader infrastructure changes since 2020.

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FUD, Binance’s legacy, and market context

Not everyone accepted the “fake news” framing. One critic, posting under the handle Broly, countered that “Binance has had a major role in every major downfall of crypto,” citing the exchange’s role in the FTX collapse, its backing of LUNA before withdrawals were halted, and its influence around other major dislocations. The episode has been widely mocked as yet another round of competitive FUD, but it also underscores how opaque cross‑exchange flows, historical grievances, and incomplete memories can quickly harden into conspiracy narratives in a market that still trades on screenshots and hearsay as often as audited disclosures.

Market prices and further reading

This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $68,280, with a recent 24‑hour range between roughly $64,760 and $71,450. Ethereum (ETH) is trading near the low‑$2,000 band, with prediction markets clustering key levels between about $1,940 and $2,100 over the near term. Solana (SOL) changes hands around $78–81, roughly flat on the session after a modest pullback from recent highs.

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Why the CPI Release Matters for the Price of Bitcoin

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Why the CPI Release Matters for the Price of Bitcoin

The previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was published on 13 January and had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. As the BTC/USD chart shows:

→ shortly after the release, the price surged aggressively to the 14 January peak;
→ it then reversed sharply lower (a sign of a bull trap), creating a bearish outlook — which we highlighted on 21 January;
→ subsequently, it broke through multi-month support and entered an accelerated decline towards the $60k area.

For this reason, today’s US inflation report (16:30, GMT+3) is drawing close attention across multiple markets, as it may have a substantial effect on both the dollar and traders’ appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

Bitcoin’s price swings have formed a descending channel, shown in red. Within this framework:

→ the lower boundary (L) appears to be key support. When the price dipped below it on 6 February, aggressive buyers stepped in, resulting in a candle with a long lower shadow;

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→ the QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two sections, is acting as resistance — as reflected in price action on 9 February.

The ATR indicator is trending lower, signalling declining volatility, which suggests the market is awaiting important news. Higher inflation is generally seen as a factor that could delay interest rate cuts, strengthen the dollar and bond yields, and weigh on BTC/USD. Conversely, softer inflation would be supportive for cryptocurrencies.

If the CPI release does not produce major surprises, Bitcoin may continue to trade within the broad L–QL range.

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Qzino Introduces Token-Based Revenue Model for Web3 iGaming Platform

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Qzino Introduces Token-Based Revenue Model for Web3 iGaming Platform

[PRESS RELEASE – Valletta, Malta, February 13th, 2026]

Qzino, a Web3-based crypto casino platform, has officially launched, introducing an ecosystem that integrates profit-sharing mechanisms, token-based rewards, and a broad gaming offering. The platform provides access to more than 10,000 games, including proprietary Qzino Originals, and incorporates token utility into its operational model.

Positioned as an alternative to traditional online casinos, Qzino integrates a revenue participation structure through its native QZI token. The token is designed to function as a profit-sharing mechanism within the platform’s ecosystem, allowing holders to receive distributions linked to overall platform performance, including during periods when they are not actively playing.

Simple and Transparent Profit-Sharing Model

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QZI functions as a participation token within the Qzino ecosystem. According to the project, the token is structured to enable holders to receive distributions tied to the platform’s performance.

The model includes:

  • Allocation of 30% of Qzino’s Net Gaming Revenue (NGR) to eligible participants
  • A staking mechanism under which 3% of the staking pool is distributed daily to QZI holders

Under this structure, rewards may be generated both through platform activity and through token holding. The distribution framework is designed to operate according to predefined parameters outlined by the project.

Staking Mechanism and Token Supply Structure

The Qzino ecosystem incorporates a token model centered on mining and staking mechanisms. The QZI token has a capped total supply of 7,777,777,777 tokens and follows a predefined distribution framework outlined by the project.

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Through the staking mechanism, eligible participants may receive daily distributions from the platform’s staking pool, subject to the platform’s terms and performance. The structure is designed to support ongoing token utility within the ecosystem and to align participation incentives with platform activity over time.

Cashback and Rakeback Program

Qzino includes a structured cashback and rakeback program as part of its platform model. According to the project, the system is designed to provide ongoing rewards tied to user activity.

The program includes:

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  • Cashback of up to 40%, distributed twice weekly, subject to platform terms
  • Rakeback of up to 15%, calculated automatically and applied to eligible bets

These mechanisms are integrated into the platform’s broader rewards structure and form part of its operational framework within the crypto iGaming sector.

Integrated Mining Mechanism

At launch, Qzino includes a built-in mining mechanism integrated into platform activity. The system enables users to accumulate QZI tokens through participation, without requiring external hardware or specialized technical setup.

According to the project, the mining framework is designed to distribute tokens through user engagement prior to the activation of additional features such as profit-sharing and staking. The mechanism forms part of the platform’s broader token distribution model within its ecosystem.

Sports Betting Coming to Qzino

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In addition to its casino offering, Qzino plans to integrate sports betting into the platform. The feature is intended to allow users to place cryptocurrency-based bets on major international sporting events.

According to the project, sports betting activity will be incorporated into the existing rewards framework, including cashback, rakeback, and token-based mechanisms. With this addition, Qzino aims to broaden its platform scope beyond casino gaming to include multiple forms of crypto-based betting within a single ecosystem.

AI-Supported Tools and Platform Accessibility

Qzino incorporates AI-based tools designed to support user experience within the platform. These tools assist with functions such as personalized game recommendations, basic analytics, and navigation, while gameplay decisions remain user-directed.

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The platform is mobile-responsive, supports multiple languages, and is accessible to users in various jurisdictions, subject to local regulations. According to the project, registration is streamlined, KYC requirements are limited, and deposits and withdrawals are processed in cryptocurrency.

Affiliate Program and Market Positioning

In parallel with its player-facing features, Qzino has introduced a global affiliate program aimed at crypto-focused influencers, communities, and media partners. The program offers revenue share of up to 35%, including sub-affiliate commissions, with real-time performance tracking. Additional components include token-based incentives, airdrop campaigns, and free-to-play funnels, as outlined by the project.

“Our mission with Qzino is to create a platform where players don’t just gamble — they participate,” said Matero, Co-Founder of Qzino. “By combining profit-sharing, staking, and industry-leading cashback, we’re building an ecosystem where users genuinely benefit from the platform’s growth.”

The launch takes place amid continued growth in the crypto iGaming sector, particularly among platforms emphasizing transparency and blockchain-based mechanics. By combining gaming services with token-based participation models, Qzino seeks to establish a presence within the evolving Web3 gaming landscape.

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For more information about Qzino and to join the platform, users can visit www.qzino.com.

About the Project

Qzino is a Web3-based crypto gaming platform designed to combine casino entertainment with tokenized revenue participation. Built around the QZI token, the project integrates profit-sharing, staking, mining mechanics, and a loyalty-driven rewards system into a single ecosystem.

The platform provides access to over 10,000 games, including proprietary Qzino Originals, with sports betting integration underway. By aligning platform growth with token holder participation, Qzino aims to introduce a sustainable, community-oriented model within the evolving crypto iGaming sector.

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China’s Baidu adds OpenClaw AI into search app for 700 million users

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Nvidia’s Huang to visit China as AI chip sales stall

Chinese tech company Baidu, best known for its search engine, also operates cloud, mapping and other internet-based services.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — Baidu plans to give users of its main smartphone app direct access to the wildly popular artificial intelligence tool OpenClaw, according to a spokesperson for the Chinese tech company.

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Starting later on Friday, users who opt in can message the AI agent through Baidu’s main search app to complete tasks such as scheduling, organizing files and writing code.

AI agents such as OpenClaw have surged in popularity recently for their ability to automate tasks, including managing email and using online services.

Previously, the Austrian-developed open-sourced AI agent could only be accessed from chat apps such as WhatsApp or Telegram. Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu have already allowed users to run OpenClaw on their cloud systems.

Baidu claims 700 million monthly active users for its search app. The company is also rolling out OpenClaw’s capabilities to its e-commerce business and other services.

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The rollout comes just days ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, as Chinese internet tech giants race to attract new users and monetize their AI investments.

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Alibaba has also integrated its e-commerce platforms, such as Taobao and travel site Fliggy, with its AI chatbot Qwen, and claimed it received more than 120 million consumer orders through the app in the six days through Feb. 11.

Qwen users can compare personalized product recommendations before completing payment through Alipay — all within the chatbot. Previously, the AI tool could suggest products based on prompts, but shoppers had to leave the app and navigate multiple platforms to complete their transactions.

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Despite growing interest in AI agents such as OpenClaw, cybersecurity firms including CrowdStrike have warned the public about granting OpenClaw unfettered access to enterprise systems.

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Boerse Stuttgart Digital Merges With Tradias In Crypto Push

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Boerse Stuttgart Digital Merges With Tradias In Crypto Push

Boerse Stuttgart Group, operator of one of Europe’s largest stock exchanges, said it will merge its cryptocurrency business with Frankfurt-based digital asset trading firm Tradias in a strategic move to expand its presence in institutional crypto markets.

The transaction will consolidate about 300 employees under a joint management team from both companies, according to a Friday announcement.

The combined unit aims to cover multiple digital asset services, including brokerage, trading, custody, staking and tokenized assets. It will serve banks, brokers and other financial institutions across Europe, providing fully regulated crypto infrastructure, the announcement said.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Boerse Stuttgart and Tradias representatives declined to comment to Cointelegraph on the deal’s terms. Bloomberg reported the transaction could value Tradias at about 200 million euros ($237 million) and the combined entity at more than $590 million.

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MiCA-compliant crypto custodian joins forces with BaFin-licensed bank

Boerse Stuttgart has been developing its regulated crypto infrastructure through its Boerse Stuttgart Digital arm, which provides trading, brokerage and custody services in accordance with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

In 2025, Boerse Stuttgart reported tripling crypto trading volumes, accounting for a quarter of its total revenue in 2024. CEO Matthias Voelkel expressed a bullish stance on crypto and disclosed personal Bitcoin (BTC) holdings at the time.

The platform’s existing footprint in regulated digital assets positions the exchange group to expand offerings by combining technology with Tradias’ execution capabilities.

Operating as the digital assets arm of Bankhaus Scheich, Tradias is licensed as a securities trading bank by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin).

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“With the planned merger of Boerse Stuttgart Digital and Tradias, Boerse Stuttgart Group is driving the development and consolidation of the European crypto market,” Voelkel said.

Related: Denmark’s Danske Bank allows clients to buy Bitcoin and Ether ETPs

“We have built strong growth momentum in recent years. By merging with Boerse Stuttgart Digital, we will take the next logical step in our corporate development,” Tradias founder Christopher Beck noted, adding:

“Together, we will cover the entire value chain for digital assets and create a new European champion with significantly greater reach, strategic depth, and creative power for further market consolidation.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

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