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Middle East on edge as Trump’s Iran blockade begins and oil jumps above $100

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‘Tariffs’ chatter surges after Trump’s announcement on global exports

Trump’s new naval blockade of Iranian ports at the Strait of Hormuz has sent Brent and WTI back above $100, sparked Iranian threats against Gulf ports, and knocked Bitcoin off weekend highs as traders reprice energy and geopolitical risk.

Summary

  • The US has begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz after talks in Islamabad collapsed.
  • Iran has threatened to strike Gulf ports in retaliation, as global benchmark crude pushes back above $100 per barrel.
  • Shipping and energy officials warn the move risks breaching maritime law and deepening the world’s energy crisis.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday after weekend talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad failed to produce a deal, sending oil back above $100 a barrel and rattling global markets. US Central Command said the embargo covers “the entirety of the Iranian coastline” and will apply to all vessels “regardless of flag” entering or exiting Iranian ports, while allowing ships transiting the strait between non‑Iranian ports to pass.

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Tehran responded by threatening to hit “Gulf ports” in retaliation for what it has called an “illegal” attempt to choke its economy, raising the risk of direct strikes on regional energy infrastructure. In a message to Gulf neighbours reported by the Wall Street Journal, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it would “take measures to deny America and its allies access to oil and gas resources in the region for years” if attacks on its soil escalate.

Oil prices surged on news of the blockade, with US West Texas Intermediate futures for May jumping 8% to about $104.40 per barrel and Brent crude for June climbing more than 7% to around $102 per barrel on Sunday evening. Barron’s reported that Brent was up 7.5% and WTI 8% after US‑Iran talks collapsed, while Yahoo Finance noted US crude “surged past $100” as traders priced in the risk of prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf exports.

The head of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, criticised the move, telling journalists “countries do not have the right to blockade an international strait that is used for international navigation,” and warning that “additional restrictive measures don’t really help us” de‑escalate the crisis. He added that “shipping continues to be used as collateral,” and said he “needed more details” on how the blockade would affect commercial traffic.

Market commentators fear the shock could get worse if the blockade lasts or widens. On CNBC, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warned that “taking more oil off the market — particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf — will drive oil prices further up … [to] around $150 per barrel” if the disruption deepens.

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The blockade comes after Iran’s earlier threats to strike oil and gas platforms across the Middle East and follows a period in which Brent crude had already surged as much as 60% in March on the back of Hormuz‑related disruptions, according to analysis cited by Modern Diplomacy. With roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz, energy traders now face a scenario where the world’s most critical chokepoint is both militarised and politicised, and where a miscalculation in the Gulf could quickly translate into sharper inflation and financial stress far beyond the region.

Crypto prices respond to blockage of Strait

In the two hours since the blockade formally came into effect, crypto markets have traded like any other macro risk asset: lower, but orderly rather than in full‑blown panic. Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped back toward the $70,500–$71,000 range after briefly trading near $74,000 over the weekend, with Investing.com putting it around $71,022 at 02:30 ET and CryptoRank noting an intraday low near $70,570 as oil spiked above $103.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

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Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph.

The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade path. This research suggested a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes, in a theoretical scenario, which is less than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block production time.

However, Bernstein said Bitcoin core developers have “adequate time” to determine a post-quantum path. Last week, Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin has about three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade, Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday.

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Graph showing the risk that an on-spend quantum attack that takes 9 minutes to derive a private key succeeds against Bitcoin. Source: Google Quantum AI

Institutions will play constructive role in quantum-proofing Bitcoin

Bernstein said large institutional holders, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in any eventual consensus on a post-quantum upgrade.

“We expect institutional partners with now billions at stake to play a constructive role in building consensus on the post-quantum path.”

The note also highlighted the recently introduced BIP-360 proposal and added that slower consensus from Bitcoin developers is seen as responsible behavior when it comes to a $1.5 trillion asset.

BIP-360 is a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that proposes a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to reduce long-exposure quantum risk by removing Taproot’s key-path vulnerability, though it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures.

Bernstein said BIP-360 could be implemented as a soft fork for exposed Bitcoin addresses, but added that this would still leave around 8% of the BTC supply in inactive addresses vulnerable to future quantum breakthroughs.

Related: Bitcoiners push for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as debate heats up

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Quantum-proofing Bitcoin is a social issue, not technical

The real challenge of quantum-proofing Bitcoin lies in the societal adoption element of the new standards, not the technical development, according to Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos blockchain.

“The coding work could be done this afternoon,” but Bitcoin holders would still need to migrate to this new standard, Breitman told Cointelegraph during an interview at EthCC 2026.

“If Bitcoin needed to migrate in the next month, they could do it from a technical perspective […] but they can’t get everyone to migrate their key in a month, Breitman said. “It’s going to take years for people to properly migrate their keys,” he added.

Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, interview at EthCC 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Asset manager Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, shared a similar view in a research report last Monday. He said Bitcoin’s quantum-proofing challenges are “more social than technical,” provided that its UTXO model does not have native smart contracts and that some address types are not quantum vulnerable.

However, he warned that the community needs to find consensus on how to quantum-proof wallets where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible.

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Magazine: AI has dramatically accelerated the quantum threat to Bitcoin: AI Eye