Crypto World
Morgan Stanley applies for OCC Bank Charter to Custody Crypto Assets
Morgan Stanley is moving deeper into digital assets by pursuing a de novo national trust charter that would let the firm custody crypto assets for clients and facilitate related trading activities. A public filing with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on February 18 identifies the applicant as “Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association.” If approved, the charter would empower the bank to act as a fiduciary, offering custody and asset safekeeping, as well as handling purchases, sales, swaps and transfers to support client portfolios, including activities such as staking. The initiative marks a formal expansion of the firm’s crypto ambitions and aligns with a broader push among Wall Street institutions to embed digital assets into traditional banking models. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) figures loom large in the charter’s contemplated scope, signaling Morgan Stanley’s intent to cover both base assets and more complex crypto strategies under a regulated umbrella.
The bank’s business outline emphasizes that the de novo trust would custody digital assets on behalf of clients, execute trades, and support investment activities across a spectrum of crypto products, including staking services. In practice, that means the unit would be positioned to handle fiduciary duties for crypto assets, while offering a suite of services common to traditional trust operations—trust accounts, safekeeping, and other custody functions—tailored to digital assets. While the document remains the initial filing stage, the emphasis on custody, transfers and staking underscores a trend toward regulated, bank-based crypto infrastructure rather than standalone crypto-only firms.
This charter would mark Morgan Stanley’s first trust filing with a crypto-specific focus, following a wave of other de novo applications that emerged in 2025. The OCC oversees roughly 60 national trust banks in the United States, and the agency has been weighing how best to supervise crypto-focused custody among legacy financial players. The development sits within a broader, growing race to secure national trust banking charters related to digital assets. In December, the OCC conditionally approved five crypto-related national trust bank applications, including First National Digital Currency Bank, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos, signaling a warming yet tightly regulated path for institutions seeking regulated custody of crypto assets for clients.
As the hunt for crypto-banking licenses intensifies, other prominent approvals have flowed in recent months. Stablecoin-focused platforms Bridge, owned by Stripe, announced it had received conditional approval for a national trust bank charter, which was subsequently followed by Crypto.com’s own charter developments. The rapid succession of approvals highlights the OCC’s willingness to grant governance access to entities building regulated crypto rails, while simultaneously raising questions about standards, custodial practices and risk controls across a rapidly expanding ecosystem. The broader policy backdrop includes ongoing discussions about how to resolve questions around stablecoins, yield, and reserve management—issues that the OCC has signaled it intends to address through proposed rulemaking and clarifications for crypto-related banking activities.
Morgan Stanley’s deeper crypto push is reinforced by internal leadership moves and recruitment drives. In January, the bank elevated equity markets veteran Amy Oldenburg to lead its new digital asset unit, a signal of the firm’s intent to scale up expertise in tokenized strategies and custodial services. Public job postings show the bank aiming to grow its crypto team with roles such as digital assets strategy director and digital assets product lead, underscoring a structured, long-term commitment to crypto capabilities. Beyond staffing, Morgan Stanley has been pursuing a broader slate of crypto products, including exchange-traded funds tied to major crypto assets. The firm filed in January to launch spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, and later sought approval for a staked Ether ETF, underscoring a multi-asset approach that blends traditional finance with digital-native instruments.
The current filing and related moves illuminate a strategic shift at Morgan Stanley, reflecting both client demand for regulated exposure to crypto and the bank’s appetite to own a larger piece of the crypto value chain. The OCC’s evolving stance—facilitating de novo charters while pushing for clear risk controls and regulatory guardrails—appears to be shaping a landscape in which banks that embrace digital assets can build outsized roles in custody, settlement, and complex crypto transactions. For Morgan Stanley and peers, the practical implications go beyond branding; they are about creating a regulated, scalable platform that can support a wide array of crypto activities within the bank’s existing risk management and compliance framework.
Yet this environment remains nuanced. The OCC’s charters come with explicit expectations around fiduciary obligation, customer protections and robust governance. The broader debate around stablecoins—how they should be regulated, how yields should be treated, and how reserve backing is managed—continues to shape how these charters are structured and what activities are permitted. The agency has floated proposals and engaged with market participants on these issues, signaling that while the path to crypto custody within a bank charter is becoming clearer, it is not yet fully settled. As Morgan Stanley and others push forward, observers will be watching how the regulators balance innovation with resilience, liquidity management and systemic risk considerations.
Why it matters
The filing signals a significant step in the normalization of digital asset custody within mainstream financial institutions. If approved, Morgan Stanley would be among a cohort of banks offering regulated fiduciary services for crypto holdings, moving beyond advisory relationships into direct custody and execution capabilities tied to client portfolios. This could reduce friction for institutional investors seeking regulated exposure to digital assets and related strategies, potentially expanding the addressable market for crypto products within traditional wealth management and brokerage channels.
For the broader market, the move contributes to a more formalized, bank-led crypto infrastructure. The OCC’s involvement and the concurrent approvals of other crypto-focused national trust banks suggest a maturing regulatory pathway for custody, settlement and staking services—areas where risk controls and compliance frameworks are crucial. As regulated options proliferate, custody and financing arrangements may become more accessible to a wider audience, including sophisticated institutional players who require strong governance, transparent reserve practices and clear accountability. The development also reinforces the ongoing convergence between conventional financial services and digital asset technology, a trend that could influence product design, risk management practices and client expectations across the sector.
From a user perspective, a Morgan Stanley-led custody capability could translate into more integrated experiences: secure storage, easier access to a range of crypto products, and the potential to combine digital asset strategies with traditional portfolios under a single risk framework. For builders and policymakers, the evolving charter landscape underscores the need for clear standards around custody, custody risk, liquidity, settlement finality and disclosure. It also highlights the role of banks in providing the operational depth necessary to support regulated crypto markets, which could help attract more capital and liquidity into the sector while reassuring risk-conscious investors.
What to watch next
- OCC decision on Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association’s de novo charter filing (watch for a published decision in the coming months).
- Reactions and approvals for other crypto-related national trust banks (Bridge, Paxos, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple, BitGo) and any new entrants (regulatory filings and conditional approvals).
- Morgan Stanley’s ongoing ETF filings and product launches related to BTC, SOL and ETH, including any updates to staking-related offerings.
- Regulatory developments around stablecoins and yield in the OCC framework, including any finalized clarifications or policy proposals that could influence custody charter risk controls.
SOURCES & verification
- Office of the Comptroller of the Currency: Filing details for Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association — https://apps.occ.gov/CAAS_CATS/CAAS_Details.aspx?FilingTypeID=2&FilingID=344925&FilingSubtypeID=1093
- Forbes: 8 trillion Morgan Stanley quietly files for national trust charter — https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2026/02/27/8-trillion-morgan-stanley-quietly-files-for-national-trust-charter/
- Bloomberg: To Goldman with Love, Lloyd Blankfein’s life on Wall Street — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/to-goldman-with-love-lloyd-blankfein-s-life-on-wall-street
- Morgan Stanley appoints digital asset head Amy Oldenburg — https://cointelegraph.com/news/morgan-stanley-appoints-digital-asset-head-amy-oldenburg
- Morgan Stanley files Bitcoin and Solana ETFs — https://cointelegraph.com/news/morgan-stanley-files-bitcoin-solana-etf
Key takeaways
- Morgan Stanley filed on February 18 for a de novo national trust charter named Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association, with the OCC to custody digital assets and execute related trades and transfers for clients.
- The filing follows a wider OCC-driven wave of crypto-charter activity, including December approvals for First National Digital Currency Bank, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos, and other recent charter events involving Bridge and Crypto.com.
- The bank’s plan emphasizes custody, safekeeping and staking, signaling a broader strategy to embed crypto services within traditional banking infrastructure.
- Internal leadership moves underscore a scaling effort: Amy Oldenburg was appointed to lead the new crypto unit, and job postings indicate a broader recruitment drive for crypto-focused roles.
- Beyond custody, Morgan Stanley has pursued crypto product initiatives, including ETF filings for BTC and SOL, followed by a staked Ether ETF filing, illustrating a diversified, multi-asset approach.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The filing sits within a widening regulatory and market push to normalize crypto custody within regulated banking channels, as the OCC signals cautious expansion of crypto-enabled services alongside ongoing debates on stablecoins and risk controls.
Why it matters
The development highlights a path to regulated, bank-led crypto custody that could lower barriers for institutional investors seeking compliant exposure. If approved, Morgan Stanley could offer integrated custody and execution services for digital assets within a framework that aligns with existing risk and compliance practices, potentially attracting more capital to crypto strategies managed under traditional financial oversight.
For market participants, this trend may translate into more predictable custody standards and greater liquidity for crypto products distributed through major banks. It also reinforces the importance of robust governance, reserve management and transparency as crypto services migrate from boutique fintechs to mainstream financial institutions. Regulators’ ongoing work—balancing innovation with financial stability—will shape how quickly and where such charter-enabled services scale in the near term.
Ultimately, Morgan Stanley’s push, alongside concurrent approvals and ETF filings, suggests that the line between traditional banking and digital asset services is continuing to blur. Investors and builders should monitor regulatory updates, endorsements by the OCC, and any official guidance that clarifies permissible activities, reserve requirements and disclosure norms for crypto custodians operating under national trust charters.
Crypto World
TSMC Helium Crisis: How the Persian Gulf War Put the World’s Chip Supply on an 11-Day Clock
TLDR:
- TMSC holds only 11 days of LNG reserve, the least of any major semiconductor economy on Earth.
- Helium from Qatar powers EUV machines that print every advanced AI chip at 3-nanometre scale globally.
- Helium spot prices have surged up to 100% since Iranian strikes shut down Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex.
- Two US carrier strike groups have shifted to the Gulf, thinning Pacific presence and raising Taiwan risk.
TSMC produces 90 percent of the world’s most advanced logic chips. Taiwan, where TSMC operates, imports 97 percent of its energy and holds only 11 days of gas in reserve.
A war in the Persian Gulf has now disrupted Taiwan’s helium supply. Helium is critical for printing transistors at 3 nanometres, with no substitute available. The crisis has put global semiconductor supply chains under immediate pressure.
Helium Shortage Pushes Advanced Chip Manufacturing Toward a Critical Threshold
Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex once processed roughly one-third of the world’s helium. Iranian strikes shut it down, and repairs will take three to five years.
Taiwan relies on Qatar for the bulk of its helium supply. SK Hynix also sourced 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Helium spot prices have since surged between 40 and 100 percent.
Helium cools the EUV lithography systems that print chips at 3 nanometres. It purges etching chambers of contamination and tests wafer seals.
No substitute for helium exists in these manufacturing processes. Without it, EUV machines stop entirely not slowly, but completely.
Analyst Shanaka Perera wrote on X that helium is “the molecule the market is not pricing.” He added that without it, EUV machines stop “not slow down. Stop.” Bloomberg reported TSMC may prioritise AI chip production over consumer products during shortages.
Fitch Ratings flagged Taiwan and South Korea as the most exposed semiconductor economies. TSMC’s shares have fallen 7 percent since the war began.
Taiwan holds the smallest energy reserve among major semiconductor economies. South Korea holds 52 days of reserve; Japan holds three weeks.
Geopolitical Pressure Compounds Taiwan’s Strategic Energy Exposure
Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs says helium supplies are secured through mid-May. Negotiations for June are ongoing, and officials called the situation a controllable risk. The government also announced plans to raise the mandatory LNG reserve from 11 to 14 days next year.
The Persian Gulf war has redirected two US carrier strike groups away from the Pacific. This has thinned the naval presence that historically deters pressure on Taiwan. Regional tensions around Taiwan have been building since 2023.
Beijing does not need an invasion to apply pressure on Taiwan. A military exercise near the island during a supply crisis achieves disruption through perception. That signal alone can alter market behaviour and shipping logistics.
Perera noted that seven reinsurance letters closed the Strait of Hormuz commercially in five days. The same mechanism could apply to the Taiwan Strait, which is 110 miles wide at its broadest point. If risk models shift, insurance letters follow, and shipping stops without any military action.
Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy, with one-third from the Middle East. Qatar remains the dominant LNG supplier.
The chain connecting helium, LNG, and the world’s advanced chips now runs through an active war zone. TSMC remains the most critical manufacturer of advanced semiconductors on Earth.
Resolv Labs moved Sunday to reassure users after an exploit hit the issuance mechanics of its USR stablecoin, knocking the token off its dollar peg and prompting decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols with exposure to move quickly to contain any fallout.
Cointelegraph reported earlier Sunday that an attacker exploited USR’s minting mechanics, creating tens of millions of unbacked tokens and dumping them through DeFi pools, which broke the stablecoin’s peg and prompted Resolv to pause protocol functions as it assessed the damage.
The token dropped as low as $0.14 (86% below its intended $1 price) after the exploit before rebounding to $0.42 at the time of writing, according to data from CoinGecko.
In a recent statement on X, the Resolv team said that the collateral pool “remains fully intact,” and that the problem appears “isolated to USR issuance mechanics.” Containment and impact assessment remain ongoing.
Onchain data from Arkham, corroborated by Web3 security firm Cyvers, showed that the attacker had converted most of the minted USR into Ether (ETH), selling part of the haul for about 11,400 ETH (around $24 million). Independent analysts also noted that the remaining 36.74 million USR was “still being continuously dumped.”
Michael Pearl, vice president GTM and strategy at Cyvers, told Cointelegraph that since the supply had inflated faster than the market could absorb and the token had immediately depegged, the value of the remaining tokens was significantly impaired.
Related: Google Threat Intel flags ‘Ghostblade’ crypto-stealing malware
DeFi protocols move to contain fallout
Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols with exposure to Resolv raced to clarify their positions. Liquid staking provider Lido said that Lido Earn user funds were safe. Morpho cofounder Merlin Egalite emphasized that the lending protocol’s own contracts were unaffected and that only certain vaults had exposure, and Aave’s founder, Stani Kulechov, said that the platform had no direct USR exposure and that Resolv was repaying its outstanding debt.
The X account “yieldsandmore” pointed to potential losses in Resolv’s junior RLP tranche, highlighting possible knock-on effects for yield platforms such as Stream and yoUSD that used RLP as collateral.
Pearl told Cointelegraph that, based on available data, the exposure appeared to be “relatively concentrated” in lending markets and leverage loops “rather than system-wide,” and primarily in protocols that integrated USR, wstUSR, or RLP into lending, leverage or yield strategies.
Related: Hacked crypto tokens drop 61% on average and rarely recover, Immunefi report says
He said that several protocols, such as Euler, Venus, Lista and Fluid, had taken precautionary actions such as pausing markets or isolating vaults, while others had declared no exposure at all. “It is more accurate to describe the risk as concentrated with localized spillover, rather than widespread contagion,” he said.
Ledger chief technical officer Charles Guillemet also assessed the fallout on X, stating that, due to the relatively small size of USR, “this is not a Terra Luna-type event.”
Questions around limitations of security audits
Resolv’s smart contracts have undergone multiple audits since 2024, but Pearl said that, while audits were “necessary,” they were also “inherently static and scoped.” Real-time, artificial intelligence-powered monitoring to “continuously analyze protocol activity” was needed, he argued, to detect anomalies as they emerge.
For stablecoin systems specifically, he said that meant monitoring mint and burn flows against expected behavior in real time, continuously validating supply against reserves and backing assets, and detecting anomalies in oracle inputs, pricing and liquidity conditions.
Security firm Pashov, which audited Resolv’s staking module in July 2025, told Cointelegraph that Resolv’s design was “good,” and that the root cause was “not the design so much as the private key compromise,” which was likely an operational security flaw. “We have to understand how that happens,” he said.
Cointelegraph reached out to Resolv Labs for comment but had not received a response by publication.
AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has recently slipped back toward $68,000, erasing some of its gains from the previous weeks.
Summary
- Bitcoin struggles at $68K due to macro factors, including the Fed’s stance and geopolitical tensions.
- Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal, with $300M pulled out, contributing to the recent price decline.
- Geopolitical tensions and Fed’s comments on inflation pressure Bitcoin’s price, adding volatility.
Bitcoin’s price had previously surged to a six-week high of $76,000, recovering $13,000 since the escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, after reaching this peak, Bitcoin faced a sharp rejection and has since fallen by $8,000.
The price volatility is compounded by broader market trends, as Bitcoin now struggles to maintain its position above the $68,000 support level. The current trading range is marked by price fluctuations, with Bitcoin caught between support at $68,000 and resistance at $76,000.
Analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, have noted that Bitcoin is stuck within a range, awaiting a breakout. Van de Poppe stated, “Nothing special so far for $BTC,” suggesting that Bitcoin’s movement remains largely dependent on reaching either the lower or upper bounds of the range, where traders may act on the volatility.
Macro factors and federal reserve’s influence
A major reason behind Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be traced to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Despite expectations that no changes would be made during its latest meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks about inflation concerns have added pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Powell indicated that rate cuts may not occur for over a year, leading to uncertainty in markets, including cryptocurrencies.
This outlook has contributed to a more cautious approach from investors, as market volatility tends to increase under such conditions. As predictions suggest that rate cuts could be delayed, Bitcoin’s price faces downward pressure, mirroring the broader downturn in risk assets.
In addition, geopolitical developments, particularly the escalating tensions in the Middle East, also played a role in Bitcoin’s price decline. A dramatic dip was observed after U.S. President Trump made threats regarding Iran, which caused a brief but sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price. These events highlight the sensitive nature of Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, reacting swiftly to global political unrest.
Bitcoin’s volatility is often exacerbated by such geopolitical tensions, as investors move funds into or out of assets like Bitcoin based on the prevailing market sentiment.
ETF reversal and capital outflows
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price decline is the reversal in ETF inflows. Bitcoin ETFs had seen a strong seven-day streak of positive inflows, reaching $200 million on March 17.
However, in the days that followed, investors began pulling funds out, with more than $300 million in withdrawals over the course of three days. This sudden shift in ETF flows coincided with Bitcoin’s price correction, indicating that institutional sentiment may be cooling, adding to the overall market pressure.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Ripple’s (XRP) price has recently slipped after a failed recovery attempt, with high-volume selling pushing the token back toward a key support level of $1.40. The token has struggled with a broader corrective phase since its peak in mid-2025, with rallies consistently failing to build momentum.
Summary
- XRP’s price drops to $1.40, facing a broader corrective phase since mid-2025.
- Retail investors continue to support XRP, while institutional interest remains cautious.
- XRP’s price action depends on upcoming regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions.
XRP’s price is currently $1.40, experiencing a 3% decline over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s market cap stands at approximately $86 billion.
Despite some short-term attempts at recovery, XRP remains trapped in a larger corrective phase. The latest pullback comes after a brief rebound in mid-March, which failed to surpass the $1.60 mark.
XRP’s price struggles are compounded by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s recent policy stance influencing broader market sentiment. This has led to a cautious trading environment for many cryptocurrencies, including XRP. While the asset’s technical structure shows some resilience, traders are closely monitoring whether XRP can stabilize or continue to fall within its established range.
Retail adoption and institutional caution
While institutional interest in XRP remains cautious, the cryptocurrency continues to see strong support from retail investors. According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP is currently in the retest phase of a macro ascending triangle, and the pullback in price is seen as confirmation rather than weakness. Egrag highlights a bullish long-term view, with potential price targets for XRP reaching $8, $17, and $27, provided the trendline holds.
Retail demand is becoming a key driver of XRP’s growth, with blockchain data showing a strong retail presence. Analysts are optimistic about the asset’s future potential, especially as macroeconomic factors and regulatory clarity evolve. However, skepticism remains within institutional circles, reflecting the more conservative approach from major investors.
XRP’s exchange activity signals resilience
Despite recent price declines, XRP continues to show resilience, with activity on top crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, signaling sustained demand. Data from CryptoQuant shows a modest shortage of XRP reserves on Binance, dropping to $2.79 billion as of March 22.
This suggests that traders are either holding onto their XRP or buying more, rather than selling off their holdings. XRP’s performance on exchanges indicates that the asset has not lost its appeal to investors, even amid the broader market downturn.
Moreover, XRP’s price action will likely depend on upcoming regulatory developments and broader market conditions. Analyst X Finance Bull points out that various catalysts, including the potential passage of the CLARITY Act and growing institutional interest, could provide upward momentum for XRP. However, the asset’s performance will continue to be shaped by both retail sentiment and institutional caution, creating a complex market dynamic moving forward.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin faced a retreat after a brief surge tied to geopolitical jitters, slipping back in line with the broader risk-off tone that has weighed on US equities in recent sessions. The move underscores a renewed relationship between BTC and traditional markets as macro headwinds persist.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD traded around $68,700, down about 5.7% for the week, while the S&P 500 finished the period down roughly 1.9%. The renewed correlation with equities adds a layer of caution for traders who had hoped for a decoupling amid persistent inflation, elevated oil prices, and a less favorable outlook for aggressive monetary easing.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s recent uptick in correlation with the S&P 500 has historically preceded deeper price declines, with average drawdowns near 50% since 2018.
- The BTC-SPX relationship has tightened again, with the 20-week rolling correlation easing to about 0.13 after previously flirting with negative territory.
- Absent fresh buying by major strategic holders, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a broader risk-off sell-off that could pull BTC lower along with equities.
- Analysts have pointed to downside targets around $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats; some projections still contemplate a Bitcoin bottom in the $30k–$40k range in the longer run, depending on macro developments.
Correlation with equities reemerges as a market signal
The renewed BTC-Stock connection is being watched closely by traders and analysts. A rising 20-week correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 suggests that Bitcoin may be increasingly swept up in risk-off dynamics that pressure equities, rather than acting as a separate flight-to-safety vehicle. The latest reading sits near 0.13, a rebound from a period when the metric briefly hovered around negative territory, underscoring how quickly Bitcoin can move in step with the stock complex during macro stress.
Historically, patterns where BTC begins to track the stock market more closely have tended to precede larger corrections in Bitcoin’s price. Tony Severino, a market analyst, described the dynamic as a warning sign that a broader stock-market pullback could pull BTC lower as well. While past performance is not a guarantee of future moves, the implication for traders is clear: macro headwinds can reassert themselves and pull the crypto cycle back toward the risk-off regime seen in prior cycles.
From a price perspective, the research across periods since 2018 points to severe downside when the BTC-SPX correlation strengthens after a long stretch of independence. If the current pattern holds, a hypothetical 50% decline from the present level would place Bitcoin near $34,350—a level some analysts have flagged as a plausible target if weaker macro conditions persist and risk assets continue to slide.
Macro backdrop and the path to a potential bottom
The renewed risk-off tone is reinforced by macro indicators that weigh on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Elevated oil prices, ongoing inflation pressures, and a less-than-dovish stance on rate expectations all contribute to a bearish tilt for both stocks and risk assets, including BTC. In this environment, the likelihood of a policy shift that would spur a quick re-acceleration in risk appetites appears constrained in the near term, adding another layer of complexity for traders trying to gauge the timing of any meaningful crypto upcycle.
Market observers have revisited historical analogs where Bitcoin’s price action lagged turns in the equity market. In 2020 and 2022, for instance, Bitcoin’s declines often followed shifts in equity correlations after bullish false starts that briefly lifted BTC before selling pressure resumed. The current backdrop—tighter correlations paired with macro headwinds—suggests investors should brace for a broader test of BTC’s resilience if risk appetite remains elusive.
Strategic holdings pause compounds caution
The intraweek dynamic around strategic Bitcoin buyers adds another dimension to the risk calculus. Strategy (the firm behind the STRC vehicle) has not executed fresh BTC purchases through its STRC listing this week, per data tracked by STRC.LIVE. This follows a March 16 action in which the firm declared a buy that added 22,337 BTC worth about $1.57 billion, lifting its total holdings to roughly 761,068 BTC. That purchase had coincided with a period when Bitcoin outperformed US stocks, contributing to a temporary resilience in the crypto market.
With no new buys this week, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook hinges more on external risk appetite than on the stabilizing force of large, long-duration demand from major corporate buyers. In a risk-off regime, the absence of fresh strategic accumulation could leave BTC more exposed to downdrafts in the broader market, rather than benefiting from any immediate, independent crypto-driven catalysts.
As the market weighs macro signals and evolving correlations, investors are paying closer attention to how BTC behaves as equities navigate volatility. The question remains whether Bitcoin can reassert its own narrative—an inflation hedge narrative or a technology-led growth story—or if it continues to ride the coattails of stock-market dynamics until macro headwinds ease.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
Bitcoin and most altcoins experienced a decline in value following recent geopolitical developments, with Bitcoin facing rejection at $71,000.
Summary
- Bitcoin and altcoins see sharp declines, while SIREN surges 90% in 24 hours.
- Ethereum, XRP, and Solana follow Bitcoin’s downward trend, losing significant value.
- The crypto market cap drops $200B as macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on prices.
The broader cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, XRP, and other major tokens, followed Bitcoin’s downward trend. Meanwhile, one altcoin, SIREN, managed to defy the market slump with a significant surge.
Bitcoin’s price faced significant volatility this week, with a high of $76,000 on Monday after it broke above $74,000. However, its upward momentum was short-lived, and the price quickly returned to $74,000 by Wednesday.
Volatility spiked ahead of and after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin falling by $3,000 before the event. After the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged, Bitcoin briefly bounced back to $72,000.
However, hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding no rate reductions in 2026 led to another drop, with Bitcoin reaching a three-week low of around $68,000. Despite efforts to recover, the cryptocurrency is still struggling to regain stability.
Altcoins follow Bitcoin’s decline
Ethereum has experienced a decline of over $300 since its peak of $2,400, dropping below $2,100. XRP also saw a sharp drop, rejected at $1.60, and now struggles below $1.40. Other prominent altcoins like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Chainlink (LINK) are all down by 2-4% in the past 24 hours.
One of the worst performers in this market downturn has been HYPE, which lost almost 5% of its value and now trades around $38. ZEC (Zcash) also experienced a significant drop, shedding 7% of its value. Other altcoins such as AAVE, DOT, and SUI are down by 3-4%.
SIREN defies the market slump
While the majority of the crypto market faced losses, SIREN, an AI-focused cryptocurrency operating on the BNB chain, saw a remarkable surge. The token skyrocketed by 90% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of over $1.70.
SIREN’s performance stands in contrast to the broader market slump, making it one of the standout performers during this period of market uncertainty.
Moreover, the total cryptocurrency market cap has taken a hit, shedding nearly $200 billion since Wednesday morning. As of the latest data, the total market cap stands at $2.43 trillion. This decline is a direct result of the drop in Bitcoin and altcoin prices, which have been influenced by both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following the FOMC meeting.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
A new report from 10x Research reveals that the cryptocurrency market is currently seeing a divide in capital flows between retail and institutional investors. While institutional capital continues to support assets like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), the XRP ecosystem is experiencing strong growth driven by retail adoption.
Summary
- XRP’s growth is largely driven by strong retail demand, with limited institutional involvement.
- Institutional capital favors Solana and Ethereum, with XRP receiving cautious interest.
- XRP Ledger sees growing retail participation, with 5.66M wallets holding under 100 XRP.
According to the 10x Research report, XRP’s price action is mainly supported by “strong retail demand and expanding utility.” The XRP ecosystem is seeing increasing adoption, with retail investors leading the charge in its growth.
While institutional interest in XRP remains cautious, retail investors continue to push the asset forward. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is developing real-world use cases, but the absence of significant institutional flows reflects a more conservative stance from Wall Street.
Institutional capital continues to be a driving force for other major cryptocurrencies, particularly Solana and Ethereum. According to the report, institutional interest in Solana remains strong, as shown by its $20 million in ETF net flows for the week, while Ethereum has seen institutional outflows of $60 million.
In contrast, XRP ETFs only saw a modest $0.6 million in positive flows, reinforcing the notion that institutional investors are still cautious about XRP despite its growing retail base.
In addition, XRP’s strength is being supported by growing on-chain retail adoption. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that the XRP Ledger recently reached a new milestone, with 5.66 million wallets holding under 100 XRP. This surge in retail participation signals that the XRP ecosystem is attracting more users despite the lack of significant institutional investment.
Ripple’s CTO emeritus David Schwartz recently engaged in an interesting exchange on X, responding to a post about XRP with a meme and supporting comments.
Summary
- David Schwartz responded to Solana with a meme, fueling the ongoing XRP-Solana rivalry.
- XRP’s integration on Solana through wrapped tokens highlights growing blockchain collaboration.
- XRP Ledger sees increased activity, but AI tools may cause failed transactions and higher fees.
Meanwhile, the interaction occurred after a statement from Solana Foundation President Lily Liu, which sparked reactions from the crypto community, particularly surrounding the future of blockchain gaming.
The conversation began when Solana’s official X account responded to a tweet from the Solana Foundation President, Lily Liu, who had stated that blockchain gaming was “not coming back.” In response, an X user jokingly announced they were switching chains and asked for a recommendation. Solana’s official account replied, saying,
“we hear XRP is nice this time of year.”
This prompted Ripple CTO emeritus David Schwartz to engage with the tweet from XRP-friendly exchange Bitrue. Bitrue had shared Solana’s tweet, and Schwartz responded with a GIF meme saying, “You’re goddamn right,” further fueling the ongoing discussion about XRP and Solana’s relationship. This playful back-and-forth highlighted the ongoing rivalry and camaraderie between the two blockchain ecosystems.
In December 2025, XRP made its way onto the Solana blockchain via Hex Trust’s wrapped XRP (wXRP) token. This move allowed XRP to be traded alongside the Ripple USD stablecoin (RLUSD) on the Solana network, marking a significant step in the collaboration between the two blockchains. The integration also raised curiosity about how these ecosystems could coexist and complement each other.
Schwartz’s response reflects the growing relationship between the two projects. Despite the ongoing competition in the blockchain space, it appears that XRP and Solana are finding ways to collaborate and engage with each other’s communities.
XRP Ledger activity and AI coding
Meanwhile, XRP Ledger (XRPL) has seen a spike in activity recently, with XRPL validator Vet suggesting that increased use of AI tools and scripts might be contributing to the rise in transactions. While this increase in activity is positive, Vet pointed out that it often results in complex queries or failed transactions, which can overload public infrastructure.
One user experienced a costly mishap, spending over $2,000 in transaction fees due to failed XRP Ledger transactions. Vet cautioned that while AI tools may improve efficiency, users should remain cautious and oversee their transactions to prevent potential issues.
VanEck, a prominent investment firm, has observed a shift in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, highlighting growing defensive positioning from investors. The recent surge in put option demand and the drop in call option premiums signal a cautious outlook for Bitcoin’s price. This trend reflects investor concerns about macroeconomic factors and market volatility.
Summary
- Bitcoin’s put/call ratio hits 0.84, showing increased demand for downside protection.
- Put premiums hit record highs, signaling growing caution in the market.
- Despite price declines, Bitcoin shows signs of stabilization with reduced volatility and leverage.
In early 2026, the Bitcoin options market has shown signs of heightened caution. VanEck’s analysis reveals that the put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.84, the highest level since June 2021, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection.
Over the past 30 days, investors spent approximately $685 million on put options, signaling their concern for further price declines. Meanwhile, premiums on call options fell about 12%, to around $562 million, suggesting that bullish sentiment has waned.
This shift in sentiment coincides with a 19% decline in Bitcoin’s price over the last month. Despite this drop, spot prices have stabilized, and the market has entered a phase of consolidation, with volatility decreasing from 80 to 50. The drop in futures funding rates, which fell from 4.1% to 2.7%, further suggests that leverage in the market has cooled.
VanEck’s report indicates that the demand for downside protection is at its highest level in recent cycles. The put premiums relative to spot volume have reached an all-time high, with put premiums three times higher than levels seen during the market stresses of mid-2022. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium to hedge against further price drops, signaling a defensive stance.
The options skew, where put options are more expensive than call options, reflects this growing concern. As of March 2026, the cost of protecting against price drops is significantly higher than the cost of betting on price increases, with implied volatility on puts averaging 66, which is 16 points higher than realized volatility. Historically, this type of skew has often been seen before Bitcoin’s price rebounds.
Industry trends and network activity
Despite the heightened caution in the options market, other indicators show that the Bitcoin market is stabilizing. On-chain activity, such as transaction volume and daily active addresses, has declined, reflecting a more subdued speculative environment. However, long-term holder selling seems to be slowing down, which could be a positive sign for the market’s stability.
Bitcoin’s price recently surged to $70,000 before correcting, indicating potential signs of a cyclical bottom. VanEck’s CEO, Jan VanEck, has suggested that this may signal a recovery for Bitcoin, as the market adjusts to lower volatility and reduced leverage.
Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
-
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts have projected Bitcoin to drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Related: Bitcoin options signal fear even as BTC ETF outflows remain relatively low
Macro conditions, such as elevated oil prices, inflation, and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin and equities over the coming months.
Strategy pause adds to cautious outlook
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC worth $1.57 billion, bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC. Bitcoin rallied by around 10.50% in the same period, beating US stocks.
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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