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Nasdaq follows Cboe joining world of ‘binary bets’ as prediction market craze hits Wall Street

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Nasdaq follows Cboe joining world of 'binary bets' as prediction market craze hits Wall Street

The Nasdaq stock exchange wants to list binary options tied to its flagship stock indexes, a move that would let traders place yes-or-no bets on the direction of major equity benchmarks like the Nasdaq-100.

In a Monday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the exchange said it also plans to offer binary options on the Nasdaq-100 Micro Index.

A binary option is a bet with only two outcomes. Either the condition is met, and the bettor walks away with a profit, or the option expires worthless. Nasdaq’s proposed contracts would be priced between 1 cent and $1, reflecting the market’s view of the probability that a specific outcome will occur.

If approved, the products would function similarly to contracts on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, giving traders a new way to express short-term views on the performance of one of the market’s most closely watched stock indexes.

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The filing marks Nasdaq’s entry into a fast-growing corner of derivatives markets that blends traditional finance with the mechanics of prediction platforms. Rival exchange Cboe also announced plans to expand into the prediction markets business as interest in event-based trading has surged.

That push follows the rapid growth of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of events ranging from elections to economic data releases. Those platforms are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) because they offer event contracts tied to real-world outcomes.

Binary options, however, fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction. Nasdaq’s proposal underscores how established exchanges are seeking to adapt the prediction-style format to regulated securities markets. Nasdaq had not responded to a request for comment by publication time.

Crypto exchanges have also moved quickly.

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Coinbase recently rolled out prediction markets on its platform, giving digital asset traders access to contracts linked to political, economic and cultural events. Gemini received CFTC approval in December to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), allowing the firm to offer regulated prediction markets to U.S. customers.

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Crypto World

Polymarket Looks to Raise $400M at $15B valuation: Report

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Polymarket Looks to Raise $400M at $15B valuation: Report

Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly in talks with investors to raise another $400 million in fresh capital, The Information reported Monday.

The $400 million raise would be made at a $15 billion valuation, The Information said, citing two people familiar with the matter. 

The raise would add to a wave of institutional capital flowing into the predictions market space in recent months. New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $600 million into Polymarket in late March, while competitor platform Kalshi’s valuation was marked at about $22 billion in its last funding round.

The Information said Polymarket is looking to add strategic investors beyond ICE in its next funding round, which could total $1 billion.

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Prediction markets started booming around the time of the 2024 US election and are now consistently recording over $10 billion in monthly trading volume across markets covering everything from sports and political elections to financial results and cultural events.

Monthly trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket since May 2025. Source: Token Terminal

With that rise has come surging institutional interest from some of Wall Street’s biggest players.

In early March, one of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, filed to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index.

Cboe Global Markets is also launching a prediction market-style offering, while CME Group partnered with American gambling company FanDuel, which will enable traders to bet on markets outside of finance. 

Related: Kalshi to create ‘portal for parents‘ on prediction markets: Report

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Last week, TradFi firms Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities said they are also weighing a move into prediction markets.

Legal issues linger over prediction markets

Despite the rise in prediction market activity, Kalshi and others have faced regulatory scrutiny over widespread insider trading and market manipulation allegations.

Kalshi is currently engaged in a court battle with the Nevada Gaming Control Board after a lower court temporarily blocked Kalshi from operating in the state. 

The state regulator argues that Kalshi’s contracts facilitate unlicensed gambling. Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has predicted that the case could reach the US Supreme Court, potentially creating precedent over the regulatory treatment of prediction markets and event-based derivatives.

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Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?