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Nebius (NBIS) Plunges 13% After Earnings Miss and Massive Capex Spend

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NBIS Stock Card

TLDR

  • Nebius Group (NBIS) plummeted 13.1% Friday, hitting an intraday low of $88.40 and settling at $91.19
  • Fourth-quarter earnings showed a loss of $0.69 per share versus the anticipated -$0.42; sales reached $227.7M against a $246M projection
  • Capital spending for the quarter totaled approximately $2.06B, sparking investor worries about liquidity
  • Sector-wide weakness intensified as CoreWeave’s (CRWV) lackluster results triggered a broader neocloud retreat
  • Wall Street analysts continue favoring the stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and $143.22 mean target

Nebius Group (NBIS) experienced significant turbulence Friday, surrendering 13.1% to finish at $91.19 after touching $88.40 earlier in the trading session. The previous session had seen shares close at $104.88.


NBIS Stock Card
Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Volume metrics painted a picture of heightened investor activity. Approximately 22.8 million shares traded hands — representing a 68% surge compared to the typical daily volume of 13.6 million.

The sharp decline followed NBIS’s February 12th fourth-quarter earnings release that fell short of analyst projections across key metrics.

The neocloud provider reported a per-share loss of $0.69, substantially wider than the Street’s forecast of a $0.42 deficit — representing a $0.27 shortfall. Top-line performance also underwhelmed, with revenue reaching $227.7 million versus the $246 million consensus.

While the earnings disappointment initially triggered selling, the investment spending figures ultimately amplified concerns.

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The company disclosed capital expenditures totaling roughly $2.06 billion during Q4. Management’s outlook for sustained multi-billion dollar annual investments has prompted investor scrutiny regarding financing strategies and short-term liquidity management.

Sector Pressure From CoreWeave

The NBIS decline wasn’t an isolated incident. Competing neocloud provider CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) plunged up to 21.9% the same session following its own earnings disappointment.

Both enterprises compete in an identical market segment — acquiring GPU infrastructure and leasing AI computing resources to hyperscalers and emerging artificial intelligence companies. Market sentiment tends to correlate between these players.

This dynamic has emerged as a recurring theme. These equities attract intense scrutiny, remain opaque to mainstream investors, and demonstrate acute sensitivity to adverse developments within the AI infrastructure ecosystem.

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NBIS exhibits a beta coefficient of 3.90, underscoring its pronounced volatility relative to broader market movements.

Analyst Views Still Mostly Positive

Notwithstanding Friday’s retreat, Street sentiment remains constructive. Among 11 analysts tracking the name, two rate it Strong Buy, seven assign Buy ratings, one maintains Hold, and one recommends Sell.

The consensus price objective stands at $143.22 — substantially above Friday’s closing level. Morgan Stanley launched coverage in January with an Equal Weight stance and $126 target. Freedom Capital elevated its recommendation to Strong Buy this month.

Skepticism exists in certain quarters. Both Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings have recently downgraded shares to Sell.

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CICC Research initiated coverage last November with an Outperform recommendation and $143 price objective.

Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average at $95.00, while the 200-day moving average rests at $95.95. The company’s market capitalization approximates $22.96 billion.

Street forecasts project 2026 revenue at $3.35 billion, implying year-over-year expansion of 531%.

Strategic cloud collaborations with Meta and Microsoft underpin analyst confidence in the long-term revenue trajectory.

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For the ongoing fiscal period, consensus estimates anticipate a $1.10 per-share loss.

Institutional ownership accounts for 21.90% of outstanding shares, with multiple funds gradually increasing their allocations in recent reporting periods.

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Crypto World

BTC tries to reclaim $64,000 as funding rates hit three month low

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BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)

Bitcoin is looking to reclaim $64,000 on possible short squeeze after earlier falling to as low as $63,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates dropped to -6%, according to CoinGlass, marking the second lowest level in the past three months. The last time funding was this negative was on Feb. 6, when bitcoin bottomed near $60,000.

Perpetual funding rates represent the periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures markets. When rates are positive, traders holding long positions pay those holding shorts. When rates turn negative, shorts pay longs.

Deeply negative funding typically signals aggressive short positioning and bearish sentiment, as traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain downside bets.

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Meanwhile, coin margined open interest rose from 668,000 BTC to 687,000 BTC over the past 24 hours.

Measuring open interest in BTC terms removes the distortion caused by price swings. Rising open interest alongside negative funding suggests growing participation, with an increasing share of traders positioned for further downside.

In the past 24 hours, more than $500 million in crypto positions have been liquidated, according to CoinGlass data. The bulk of those liquidations were long positions, which accounted for over $420 million, highlighting the scale of forced selling as prices moved lower.

BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)
BTC Open Interest (Coinglass)

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Tether Freezes $4.2B in USDT Linked to Crime in 3 Years: Report

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Tether Freezes $4.2B in USDT Linked to Crime in 3 Years: Report

Stablecoin issuer Tether has reportedly frozen roughly $4.2 billion worth of its USDt tokens connected to suspected criminal activity over the past three years.

Most of the blocked funds were restricted since 2023, as regulators and law enforcement agencies intensified scrutiny of crypto-related fraud and sanctions evasion, the El Salvador-based firm reportedly told Reuters on Friday.

Tether’s dollar-pegged USDt (USDT) token is the largest stablecoin in circulation, with more than $180 billion outstanding, up sharply from about $70 billion three years ago.

Tether can freeze tokens directly on the blockchain by blacklisting wallet addresses when requested by authorities.

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Related: Tether-backed Oobit adds crypto-to-bank transfers for local payment networks

Tether helps governments freeze funds

On Tuesday, Tether announced that it has assisted the US Department of Justice in seizing nearly $61 million in USDt tied to “pig-butchering” scams, a scheme in which criminals build relationships with victims before persuading them to send money.

Earlier this month, the company also froze approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency at the request of Turkish authorities, blocking funds tied to an alleged illegal online betting and money-laundering operation.

According to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, by late 2025, stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle had blacklisted around 5,700 wallets holding about $2.5 billion, with roughly three-quarters of the addresses containing USDt when they were frozen.

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Related: Tether USDT supply set for biggest monthly decline since 2022 FTX collapse

USDt supply shrinks

As Cointelegraph reported, USDt is on track for its largest monthly supply drop in three years, with circulating supply falling about $1.5 billion in February after a $1.2 billion decline in January, according to blockchain data. The contraction echoes the period following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and may point to tighter liquidity in crypto markets.

USDt market cap drops in past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Tether said the figures reflect short-term distribution changes rather than weakening demand, noting USDC (USDC) also saw a multibillion-dollar reduction during the same period.

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