Crypto World
Not the Bottom Yet? CryptoQuant Data Exposes Bitcoin’s Brutal Deleveraging
The combination of both metrics suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.
Current market dynamics point to a reset in motion, with Bitcoin undergoing deleveraging. However, the leading digital asset is yet to form a bottom for this bear cycle, despite cooling market conditions.
According to a report from CryptoQuant, metrics such as falling open interest and Bitcoin basis compression on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate ongoing deleveraging.
More Pain For BTC?
The CME basis compression is a futures yield curve that reflects demand for leveraged long exposure. The curve has been in a downward trend since 2025, following patterns that preceded the 2019 and 2022 bear markets. However, the slope remains positive to this day. While the curve’s current slope suggests leverage demand and risk appetite are cooling, the market has not yet reached conditions historically associated with capitulations. It confirms gradual ongoing deleveraging, but not capitulation.
The yield curve compression currently signals weaker demand for leveraged long exposure, as market participants become less willing to pay a premium for bitcoin (BTC) exposure. This points to weakening bullish conviction and a more neutral or bearish backdrop. However, longer-dated contracts are still trading at a premium to spot and short-dated futures.
In essence, the curve reflects an environment where price rallies may face resistance until a definitive cyclical bottom forms. Past cycle bottoms have formed only when the yield curve slope turned negative, signaling backwardation and acute deleveraging. This means that BTC still has more downside to come.
Cyclical Bottom Coming Soon
Additional proof that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a gradual reset in positioning rather than the acute stress needed to form a bottom is the decline in futures open interest. This metric has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak, following a trend seen during the 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant found that the CME Bitcoin futures open interest has plummeted by 47%, similar to the 45% plunge witnessed in 2022. Such a move reflects a major unwind of leveraged positions following a period of increased participation. This unwind is characterized by prolonged liquidation, reduced speculative demand, and lower hedging activity, confirming an ongoing deleveraging cycle.
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The combination of a declining open interest and a positive yield curve suggests the current regime is consolidative or mid-cycle bearish, with definitive capitulation likely to occur soon.
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Ethereum continues to host the largest concentration of stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) capital, even as successive waves of faster networks emerge.
Newer blockchains have promised higher throughput and lower costs, raising questions about whether institutional capital could eventually migrate away from Ethereum.
Kevin Lepsoe, founder of ETHGas and a former Morgan Stanley derivatives executive in Asia, said he expects Ethereum’s lead to endure, as institutions tend to prioritize capital depth over flashy performance.
“[Transactions per second] is the metric that gets engineers excited, but is that what drives capital to the blockchain?” Lepsoe asked in an interview with Cointelegraph.
“The capital is on Ethereum; the stablecoins are there. TradFi is looking at where the liquidity is,” he said.
Institutional capital brings scale and stability to a blockchain’s ecosystem. Large asset managers and tokenized fund issuers move capital in volumes that deepen liquidity and anchor stablecoin supply. Their presence can establish a network’s position beyond hype-driven retail activity that surges in bull markets and fades in downturns.
Liquidity keeps Ethereum ahead of faster rivals
If institutions prefer to operate where most of the money already sits, then simply making a faster blockchain will not pull capital away from Ethereum.
Over the past several cycles, performance has become a weapon to attract users. Solana has emerged as Ethereum’s high-speed alternative, dubbed an “Ethereum killer,” though that label is debated. It onboarded retail traders through the non-fungible token (NFT) boom and the memecoin frenzy, but the heightened activities weren’t sustained in the long run.
Related: Can Solana shed its memecoin image in 2026?
Solana now has its own generation of “Solana killers” that advertise higher theoretical transactions per second (TPS). But Ethereum’s liquidity grants tighter spreads, lower slippage for large trades and the capacity to absorb institutional-sized transactions without heavily distorting prices.
“I think of Ethereum as like downtown,” Lepsoe said.
“You could build a marketplace uptown somewhere in the suburbs and you could get far off market prices there, maybe it’s more convenient or maybe you like the vibe. But if you want the deepest liquidity, you go downtown, and that’s Ethereum.”
Though past crypto booms featured high-stakes retail speculation, the next phase is shaping up to include more institutional capital. As it stands, institutional players have expressed interest in practical use cases such as stablecoins and real-world assets (RWAs).
Even the world’s largest asset manager is leaning into RWA products. BlackRock’s USD Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is its tokenized Treasury fund that started on Ethereum and branched out to several blockchains. Ethereum holds over a 30% BUIDL market capitalization.
Ethereum is the largest network for stablecoins as well, which BlackRock’s global head of market development, Samara Cohen, said are “becoming the bridge between traditional finance and digital liquidity.”
Ethereum leads the industry in stablecoin market cap, with $160.4 billion, according to DefiLlama.
Ethereum’s L2 liquidity is returning to L1
Though Lepsoe said liquidity depth shapes institutional preference, a network’s efficiency cannot be completely disregarded.
Ethereum has been adjusting its own technical profile. Transaction fees that once routinely spiked to virtually unusable prices have fallen significantly, as layer-2 rollups eased pressure on the main chain. These solutions brought in new problems of their own. Rollups fragmented liquidity across multiple environments.
Related: 2026 is the year Ethereum starts scaling exponentially with ZK tech
Lepsoe described the liquidity fragmentation as a blessing in disguise for Ethereum. He argued that if L2s didn’t take away liquidity from the main chain, capital would have flown out to competitors.
“I think it actually saved the liquidity from going to other L1s, where they eventually probably couldn’t have brought it back,” he said.
Recently, Ethereum has shifted its focus back to scaling the main chain. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that many layer 2s have failed to decentralize, while the main chain is now sufficiently scaling.
“Both of these facts, for their own separate reasons, mean that the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path,” Buterin said in a recent X post.
Scaling upgrades strengthen Ethereum’s liquidity advantage
With transaction fees tamed, Ethereum is expected to execute the Glamsterdam fork in 2026, raising the block gas limit to 200 million from 60 million and putting its layer 1 on the road to 10,000 TPS over time.
For Ethereum, the timing coincides with institutions evaluating blockchain infrastructure for the next generation of financial services.
Alongside protocol upgrades, infrastructure providers are experimenting with ways to improve execution efficiency. Projects like Lepsoe’s ETHGas aim to optimize Ethereum’s block construction process through offchain execution and coordination, while Psy Protocol uses zero-knowledge technology to bundle multiple transactions into one.
Marcin Kaźmierczak, co-founder of blockchain oracle RedStone — which supplies data feeds for tokenized assets and institutional blockchain applications — said that Ethereum has the edge, as institutions prefer blockchains that have been battle-tested and around “for a very long time.” However, while institutions are “aggressively” expanding into Ethereum, they’re also shopping around.
“They look at Solana, which is getting good traction. Canton is extremely important for them because it gives them privacy, which they value very, very much,” Kaźmierczak told Cointelegraph.
Lepsoe said he sees “zero threat” from Solana or Canton, arguing that Ethereum still has the deepest liquidity pool, which is the primary draw for large allocators.
For institutional capital, performance improvements may expand Ethereum’s capacity, but liquidity remains its defining advantage. In blockchain markets, speed can attract users during booms, but capital tends to stay where the deepest markets already exist.
Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security
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With a few hours still to go, Bitcoin is on track to post its worst losing streak since 2018, with February about to mark a fifth consecutive monthly decline.
The run of losses would be the longest since that 2018–2019 bear market and follows what has already been bitcoin’s worst first 50-day start to a year on record, leaving BTC down more than 25% year to date and on course for its first-ever back-to-back January and February declines.
More? The bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 12.288 ounces in February, marking a 70% drawdown over the last 14 months.
Bitcoin is also about to close out its worst month since June 2022 as the collapse of Terra-Luna that year sent the price plunging by about one-third. With bitcoin currently at about $66,000, the decline this February stands at more than 16%.
But some analysts argue that comparing the current stretch to 2018 may be oversimplifying what’s unfolding.
Repricing within a structural regime shift
“What we’re seeing isn’t just weakness. It’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Mati Greenspan, senior eToro market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk.
He believes that while tariffs, ETF flows and macro fears may explain the timing of the selloff, they don’t explain the deeper move, which he sees as a broader recalibration in how markets value risk assets in an era of elevated uncertainty.
Bitcoin is also approaching a fifth straight weekly decline, a streak last seen between March and May 2022.
Geopolitical tensions have strengthened the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, tightening financial conditions and weighing on risk assets.
Yet, this downturn stands out for another reason: bitcoin’s uneven relationship with equities. While U.S. stocks have remained relatively resilient, BTC has sharply underperformed, marking an unusual period of instability in its traditional risk-asset correlation.
Confronting arguments
“Bitcoin doesn’t have a narrative right now, and it’s getting squeezed from both sides,” Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, said in an email to CoinDesk.
Randin pointed to mounting macro pressure, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the past five weeks, escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that has yet to signal imminent rate cuts.
While gold has attracted safe-haven flows and equities have ridden AI momentum, bitcoin has lagged. “Gold is up roughly 48% since September while bitcoin has fallen about 41% over the same period,” Randin said, explaining that the divergence shows investors are still treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than digital gold.
The correlation picture has been volatile. “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. That’s not decorrelation, that’s instability,” Randin said. “When the risk-on trade is working, and one asset gets left behind, that’s usually weakness, not strength.”
The narrative “hasn’t changed since 2009. It is a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems,” according to Greenspan.
Decorrelations are not random
“When correlations break during regime shifts, it’s usually not random. It’s early repricing,” Greenspan said. “If equities are still being treated as cyclical growth exposure while bitcoin starts trading more like a sovereign hedge, that divergence is structurally bullish.”
Despite the scale of the drawdown, Randin cautioned against assuming the correction is over.
“Bitcoin’s now declined 52% from the October highs,” he said. “That sounds like a lot, but when you look at prior bear markets where we’ve seen drawdowns of 80% or more, we could realistically be only halfway through this correction.”
He added that while the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest reading in bitcoin’s history and accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December, signals often associated with cycle bottoms, similar conditions in past downturns were followed by another 30% to 40% drop before a definitive low formed.
Greenspan, however, said sentiment may already reflect much of the pessimism. “When sentiment gets this uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp,” he said.
Until bitcoin can reclaim the $68,000–$72,000 zone, Randin said, “I’d expect this streak to grind on rather than break cleanly.” He identified $60,000 as a key near-term support level, with the 200-week moving average near $58,500 just below it.
“The losing streak narrative focuses on five months,” Greenspan added. “The structural story spans decades.”
Quick Summary
- Broadcom’s Q1 FY2026 financial results scheduled for March 4, 2026
- Analyst consensus calls for $19.21 billion in revenue, marking a 29% annual increase
- Expected earnings per share of $2.02 represents 26% growth; the company has surpassed projections for nine consecutive quarters
- AI semiconductor division projected to generate $8.2 billion, representing a year-over-year doubling
- UBS maintains Buy recommendation with $475 target; analyst consensus shows Strong Buy rating averaging $452.32
Broadcom will unveil its Q1 FY2026 financial performance on March 4, 2026. The upcoming disclosure arrives with substantial anticipation from market observers and several critical factors demanding attention.
Financial analysts are forecasting quarterly revenue of $19.21 billion, representing a 29% increase from the comparable quarter in the previous fiscal year.
Regarding profitability metrics, Wall Street consensus points to earnings of $2.02 per share, reflecting 26% annual expansion. The semiconductor giant has exceeded analyst projections throughout the previous nine reporting periods, establishing elevated expectations for this announcement.
AVGO stock has surged 60% during the trailing twelve months, propelled predominantly by robust appetite for its specialized artificial intelligence processors. The shares have declined approximately 8% since the calendar year began.
Options traders are anticipating an 8.64% price swing surrounding the earnings announcement, illustrating considerable uncertainty regarding the forthcoming results.
Artificial Intelligence Semiconductor Division Takes Center Stage
Broadcom’s AI-focused chip revenues are forecast to approach $8.2 billion during this quarter, approximately doubling the figure from the year-ago period. This expansion stems from major tech corporations scaling their computational infrastructure.
On February 26, Broadcom announced expectations for exceptionally robust demand for an innovative AI processor utilizing sophisticated stacking architecture. According to Reuters reporting, deliveries may exceed one million units before 2027 concludes.
The semiconductor manufacturer has begun delivering its inaugural 2-nanometer custom compute system-on-chip, produced with its proprietary 3.5D eXtreme Dimension System in Package technology. Company executives emphasize the architecture enhances energy efficiency while reducing communication delays within AI computing clusters.
This represents a significant technological advancement. Reduced manufacturing node dimensions typically enable increased computational capabilities with decreased power consumption—a crucial consideration for enterprise-scale artificial intelligence deployments.
VMware Software Operations Draw Scrutiny
While semiconductor operations appear robust, market watchers are monitoring Broadcom’s infrastructure software business more closely, which expanded considerably following the VMware transaction.
UBS equity analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained his Buy recommendation before the quarterly disclosure, establishing a $475 valuation target. His analysis suggests recent share price softness correlates with compressed valuation multiples throughout the software sector rather than fundamental challenges within Broadcom’s semiconductor operations.
Arcuri identified several concerns within the software division, including possible customer attrition at VMware during contract renewal periods.
He additionally highlighted decelerating expansion following recent platform modernization cycles and the emergence of AI-powered development tools potentially accelerating cloud migration.
Wall Street sentiment toward the equity remains overwhelmingly constructive. Among 30 analyst assessments issued during the past three months, 28 recommend buying while two suggest holding, with zero sell ratings.
The consensus valuation target among these professionals stands at $452.32, suggesting approximately 41.5% appreciation potential from present trading levels.
Broadcom commences distribution of its 2-nanometer custom system-on-chip as the March 4 earnings announcement approaches.
TLDR:
- Ctrl Alt and Billiton Diamonds launch $280M UAE diamond tokenization on XRP Ledger.
- XRP Ledger enables secure, low-cost trading of previously illiquid luxury commodities.
- Ripple Custody provides bank-grade vaulting for $280M in physical diamond inventory.
- UAE regulatory alignment ensures global standards for on-chain real-world asset trading.
A $280 million diamond tokenization deal has launched in the UAE, bridging physical assets and blockchain. Ctrl Alt and Billiton Diamonds partnered to bring over a billion AED in diamonds on-chain.
The XRP Ledger will host the transaction, leveraging its speed and low costs for high-value real-world assets. The initiative highlights growing digital commoditization in the UAE’s regulated blockchain ecosystem.
XRP Ledger Supports High-Value Asset Tokenization
Ctrl Alt’s tokenization project relies on the XRP Ledger’s native features for secure and efficient trading. The platform allows diamonds, historically illiquid, to become tradable digital assets in real time.
Ripple Custody provides bank-grade vaulting for over $280 million in physical inventory. Integration with the UAE’s regulatory framework ensures compliance with DMCC and VARA standards.
Tokenized diamonds can be transferred or traded on-chain without moving the physical asset. The system uses smart ledger functionality to track ownership and provenance digitally.
Transaction costs remain low, which supports frequent trading of previously non-liquid assets. The platform demonstrates practical scalability for real-world luxury asset markets globally.
Regulatory and Market Implications of On-Chain Diamonds
The UAE’s regulatory alignment offers a blueprint for secure tokenization of high-value commodities. Ctrl Alt and Ripple operate within forward-thinking frameworks to reduce trust gaps for investors.
The project showcases how banks and custodians can engage with digital assets safely. Tokenization of luxury goods may expand to other commodities like gold, art, and collectibles.
Ripple’s involvement signals increasing institutional adoption of blockchain for asset-backed products. By addressing storage, verification, and transfer risks, the initiative strengthens investor confidence.
Digital ownership protocols reduce fraud risk while maintaining transparency in real-time audits. The project may accelerate broader adoption of the XRP Ledger for real-world asset markets.
Morgan Stanley has applied for a national trust bank charter to provide direct cryptocurrency custody for its institutional clients. This represents a major escalation in Wall Street’s push into the digital asset sector.
The $9 trillion banking giant filed the de novo application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on February 18.
Morgan Stanley’s New OCC Bid to Rival BitGo and Anchorage
If approved, the charter would transform Morgan Stanley into a direct competitor to crypto-native custodians such as BitGo and Anchorage Digital, while testing the limits of traditional banking regulations.
The filing marks a significant shift in the competitive landscape. While the OCC has previously granted conditional trust charters to crypto-focused firms, a legacy wirehouse securing full approval would signal a major thaw in regulatory oversight.
Industry analysts attribute this renewed momentum to the Trump administration’s efforts to provide clearer federal guidelines for traditional financial institutions entering the digital asset space.
“People are going to be stunned this year — The world’s largest institutions and corporates are coming fully into crypto,” Hunter Horsley, Bitwise CEO, said.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s application outlines ambitious plans to offer custody, trading, and staking services under one roof.
So, the OCC filing is part of a bifurcated digital asset strategy that distinctly separates institutional wealth management from retail trading operations.
On the institutional side, the bank is actively investing in blockchain infrastructure. A recent job posting for a lead engineer revealed Morgan Stanley is building a platform for decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization.
The role requires expertise in both public blockchains, such as Ethereum and Polygon, and private, permissioned networks like Hyperledger and Canton.
This highlights the bank’s intent to bridge walled-garden institutional assets with public network liquidity.
Simultaneously, Morgan Stanley is preparing a massive retail expansion.
The firm plans to launch direct cryptocurrency trading on its ETrade platform in the first half of 2026, offering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana to everyday investors.
The ETrade integration represents a direct challenge to retail-focused exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood.
Indeed, this dual approach underscores a broader trend among traditional financial titans.
Encouraged by a more accommodating regulatory environment in Washington, legacy banks are rapidly accelerating their crypto roadmaps. They are now hiring specialized Web3 talent and transitioning from passive exchange-traded fund facilitation to core infrastructure development.
The online gambling industry is changing fast. Established platforms built on traditional payment systems are facing serious competition from a new generation of crypto-native operators.
DraftKings is one of the biggest names in the game. But ZunaBet, which launched in 2026, is the platform a lot of players are starting to talk about.
DraftKings: Big Brand, Big Limitations
DraftKings started in 2012 as a daily fantasy sports platform and grew into one of the largest regulated gambling operators in the United States. It is publicly traded on NASDAQ and holds licences across multiple US states.
The platform offers a sportsbook, an online casino in eligible states, and a loyalty program called Dynasty Rewards. It is built for the mainstream American bettor and does that job well.
Payment options are traditional — debit cards, bank transfers, PayPal, and similar methods. Crypto support is minimal or unavailable depending on where you are.
The casino library also varies by state due to licensing rules. Some players get full access, others are limited to sports betting only.
DraftKings is polished and trusted. But it was built for a different era of online gambling, and that is starting to show.
ZunaBet: Built for the Next Generation
ZunaBet launched in 2026 under Strathvale Group Ltd, operating with an Anjouan gaming licence and registered in Belize. The team behind it has over 20 years of combined industry experience.
The platform was built around crypto from day one. It supports 20+ cryptocurrencies including BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, ADA, XRP, and USDT across multiple chains — with no platform processing fees and fast withdrawals.
The game library sits at 11,294 titles from 63 providers. That covers slots, RNG table games, and live dealer games from providers including Pragmatic Play, Evolution, Hacksaw Gaming, Yggdrasil, and BGaming.
That makes it one of the largest crypto-focused game libraries available right now. Most crypto casinos do not come close to that number of titles or providers.
The sportsbook covers football, basketball, tennis, NHL, and a full esports slate including CS2, Dota 2, League of Legends, and Valorant. Virtual sports and combat sports round out the offering.
Apps are available for iOS, Android, Windows, and MacOS. Live chat runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The platform uses a dark-themed HTML5 design built for fast loading on mobile.
Crypto vs Traditional: Why It Matters
This is not just a debate about payment methods. The difference between crypto platforms and traditional operators now runs much deeper than that.
Crypto casinos offer faster withdrawals, lower transaction costs, and fewer friction points around identity verification. For players used to waiting days for a bank transfer, switching to crypto feels like an upgrade.
Traditional platforms like DraftKings benefit from strong consumer protections and brand recognition. US players in regulated states know exactly what they are getting.
But that regulation also limits reach. State-by-state licensing means DraftKings cannot serve large parts of the global market. Players outside eligible US states often have no access at all.
ZunaBet operates under an international licence and is available to a far broader audience. For players locked out of US-regulated platforms, that matters a great deal.
There is also a generational angle. Younger players who already manage crypto wallets are not looking for a PayPal option. They want fast, low-cost transactions that fit how they already handle money.
Platforms built for that from the ground up have a real advantage over those trying to add crypto to a legacy system.
Loyalty Programs: Points vs Rakeback
DraftKings uses Dynasty Rewards, a points-based system where players earn crowns through wagering and redeem them for credits and free bets. It works, but it follows the same formula most major operators have used for years.
ZunaBet does something different. Its loyalty program is built around a dragon evolution system with a mascot called Zuno, running across six tiers: Squire, Warden, Champion, Divine, Knight, and Ultimate.
Each tier comes with direct rakeback — starting at 1% for Squire and rising to 20% at Ultimate. Rakeback means a percentage of every wager comes straight back to the player, with no points conversion or redemption required.
Additional rewards include up to 1,000 tier-based free spins, VIP club access, and double wheel spins. The whole system is more transparent and more rewarding than a standard points program.
For regular players, knowing exactly what percentage of their wagers comes back is a big deal. It removes the guesswork that makes most loyalty programs feel less valuable than they appear.
Where ZunaBet Stands Out
Most new casino platforms launch with a limited library, a basic sportsbook, and a generic bonus structure. ZunaBet launched with over 11,000 games, 63 providers, full esports coverage, dedicated apps across four operating systems, and a structured rakeback loyalty program.
That is a complete platform from day one, not a work in progress.
It sits in a smart strategic position — crypto-native enough to appeal to digital asset users, but broad enough in its game library and sportsbook to compete with established operators on content alone.
The welcome bonus adds to that. New players can claim up to $5,000 plus 75 free spins across three deposits: 100% up to $2,000 plus 25 spins on the first deposit, 50% up to $1,500 plus 25 spins on the second, and 100% up to $1,500 plus 25 spins on the third.
That is a generous offer spread across multiple deposits, designed to keep players engaged well beyond the first session.
The Bottom Line
DraftKings is the right fit for US-based players in regulated states who want a familiar platform with mainstream payments and strong consumer protections. It has earned its reputation and continues to serve that audience well.
ZunaBet is built for a different kind of player. Someone who holds crypto, wants a massive game library, bets on esports alongside traditional sports, and expects a loyalty program with real, calculable value.
DraftKings represents where online gambling has been. ZunaBet represents where it is going.
For anyone open to something new in 2026, ZunaBet is the most complete and most exciting platform to emerge this year. The library, the sportsbook, the crypto infrastructure, and the rakeback loyalty system all point to a team that understands exactly what modern players are looking for.
It is only just getting started, and that might be the most interesting thing about it.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has implemented a real-time, on-chain proof-of-reserve system for its $4.7 billion USD1 stablecoin.
This represents a pivot from the stablecoin’s monthly attestation reports following a recent security breach and market panic that briefly broke the asset’s dollar peg.
USD1 Stablecoin Adopts Live Chainlink Tracking to Soothe Market Jitters
The crypto protocol, which maintains close ties to President Donald Trump’s family, announced the upgrade on February 27.
The new system integrates the Chainlink Runtime Environment to continuously pull, validate, and write reserve data from crypto custodian BitGo.
As a result, USD1 users can now monitor the stablecoin’s total supply, reserve backing, and live collateralization ratio across five networks, including Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain.
Real-time proof of reserves confirms the existence of $4.7 billion in short-term U.S. government treasuries and cash equivalents at BitGo.
However, industry analysts caution that the dashboard still provides limited granularity.
The continuous data feed does not automatically reveal the immediate liquidity profile of the underlying assets during a bank run. It also fails to shield the protocol from future vulnerabilities in its smart contracts or executive security practices.
This is because the upgrade arrives just days after USD1 lost its $1 peg and briefly slipped to a low of $0.994.
The WLFI team attributed the de-pegging to a “coordinated attack.” They alleged that malicious actors hacked multiple co-founder accounts, paid influencers to generate panic, and opened short positions against the protocol’s native token.
However, the reliance on a “coordinated attack” narrative has drawn scrutiny. The admission that multiple executive accounts were compromised exposes severe operational security vulnerabilities in a protocol that manages billions in institutional capital.
Furthermore, the project’s unprecedented political connections inherently attract elevated regulatory attention and adversarial market behavior, raising the stakes for its security infrastructure.
Despite the operational failures, USD1 appeared to have avoided a catastrophic collapse because its core redemption mechanism remained functional.
(Note: The cover image has been removed per instructions.)
Crypto market enforcement and liquidity dynamics intersect as stablecoin issuer Tether pursues a more aggressive stance against illicit activity. In a period spanning three years, the company reportedly froze roughly $4.2 billion of USDt tokens tied to criminal schemes, with the bulk blocked since 2023 as regulators intensified scrutiny of sanctions evasion and fraud in crypto rails. USDt remains the dominant stablecoin, with outstanding supply reported to exceed $180 billion, up from about $70 billion three years earlier. Tether can blacklist wallet addresses to render tokens unusable on the blockchain when authorities request it, a tool that has become a central node in the crypto enforcement landscape.
Key takeaways
- Tether has frozen about $4.2 billion of USDt linked to crime over three years, with the majority blocked since 2023 as enforcement intensified.
- Recent actions include a nearly $61 million USDt seizure tied to pig-butchering scams, and a separate freeze of about $544 million in cryptocurrency at the request of Turkish authorities investigating illegal betting and money laundering.
- Elliptic’s analysis indicates that by late 2025, stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle had blacklisted roughly 5,700 wallets holding about $2.5 billion in aggregate, with USDt present in about three-quarters of those addresses when frozen.
- USDt supply has contracted sharply in early 2026, with February posting one of the largest month-over-month declines in three years, a trend seen alongside reductions in USDC during the period.
Tickers mentioned: $USDT, $USDC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The actions reflect a tightening nexus between enforcement capabilities on-chain and liquidity management in crypto markets, where stablecoins serve as the primary rails for settlement and cross-border flows. As regulatory scrutiny increases, on-chain controls are becoming a more visible instrument for reducing illicit activity without fully constraining legitimate use cases.
Why it matters
Stablecoins anchor vast volumes of daily crypto activity, and USDt’s prominence means that enforcement actions reverberate across exchanges, wallets, and DeFi protocols. Tether’s ability to blacklist addresses to render USDt unusable embodies a centralized control mechanism within a decentralized asset class, underscoring a growing tension between anti-fraud and sanctions compliance and the user experience that market participants expect from permissionless rails. Exchanges and market makers rely on predictable liquidity; when on-chain assets are frozen at scale, liquidity pockets can suddenly reconfigure, affecting funding costs and the speed of settlement during periods of market stress.
At the same time, the broader ecosystem is watching how these on-chain tools interact with traditional regulatory levers. The seizure of nearly $61 million in USDt tied to criminal scams and the Turkish authorities’ $544 million action illustrate that cross-border enforcement remains active in the crypto space. Industry observers note that such actions, while important for deterrence, may also shape risk assessments for institutions and retail users who rely on stablecoins for risk management, hedging, and routine trading activity. The tension between compliance imperatives and the frictionless appeal of digital money will likely influence policy debates and product design in the coming quarters.
What to watch next
- Regulatory and enforcement developments related to stablecoins, including potential new guidelines on on-chain freezing powers and compliance standards.
- Expanded data from analytics firms on wallet blacklists, address clustering, and the distribution of USDt across exchanges and custody providers.
- Additional actions by Tether or other issuers to block illicit funds, including any official disclosures about scale and methodology.
- Liquidity indicators for crypto markets as USDt supply continues to evolve, alongside movements in USDC and other major stablecoins.
- Ongoing case developments in related enforcement actions, with updates from court filings or regulatory agencies.
Sources & verification
- Record of approximately $4.2 billion in USDt frozen over three years due to crime links, with the majority of actions occurring since 2023.
- Details on a nearly $61 million USDt seizure tied to pig-butchering scams in a DOJ-linked enforcement narrative.
- Turkish authorities’ case involving the freezing of about $544 million in cryptocurrency tied to illegal betting and money laundering.
- Elliptic’s analysis of blacklisted wallets and the share of USDt among addresses that were frozen by the end of 2025.
- Insights on USDt supply dynamics, including February and January declines, and comparative movements in USDC.
Rewritten Article Body: Enforcement actions reshape stablecoins and on-chain liquidity
USDt (CRYPTO: USDT) remains the largest stablecoin in circulation, with more than $180 billion outstanding, a scale that underscores how on-chain controls can influence day-to-day market dynamics. In a recent briefing summarized below, authorities and the token’s issuer have publicly detailed a string of actions aimed at curbing illicit activity linked to USDt on the blockchain. While the precise mechanics of such actions—blacklisting specific wallet addresses to render tokens unusable—are technical, their implications are deeply financial and systemic. A briefing linked here describes how roughly $4.2 billion of USDt has been blocked on-chain over three years, with the bulk of those blocks occurring since 2023 as authorities intensified scrutiny of crypto-related fraud and sanctions evasion.
One of the most tangible demonstrations of this enforcement capability occurred in a joint narrative about seizures and asset disruption: authorities seized nearly $61 million in USDt tied to pig-butchering scams, a criminal scheme in which perpetrators cultivate relationships with victims before persuading them to transfer funds. The details of that action are outlined in a linked briefing that avoids naming specific outlets, focusing instead on the mechanism by which the cryptocurrency—USDt—was effectively disentangled from illicit actors. The on-chain technique at the heart of this action—blacklisting affected addresses—highlights how a centralized control can operate within a decentralized asset class when requests come from law enforcement.
Enforcement actions are not limited to the United States. Earlier this month, Turkish authorities reported a separate freeze of approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency tied to alleged illegal online betting and money-laundering networks. The action demonstrates how cross-border investigations can intersect with stablecoins that are deeply integrated into global payment rails. In both cases, the underlying objective is to interrupt the flow of illicit proceeds and to establish a deterrent effect across the crypto ecosystem. The Turkish case, described in a linked article, underscores how national regulators leverage the on-chain properties of USDt to disrupt criminal ecosystems that span beyond a single jurisdiction.
Industry analytics firm Elliptic has provided broader context: by late 2025, the two leading stablecoin issuers—Tether and Circle—had blacklisted around 5,700 wallets holding roughly $2.5 billion in aggregate. Importantly, roughly three-quarters of the addresses involved contained USDt at the time of freezing. This is not merely a tally of addresses; it signals how the concentration of stolen or illicitly sourced funds often migrates into USDt-based wallets, prompting targeted enforcement actions and tighter monitoring of stablecoin flows across exchanges and custodians. The on-chain footprint of such actions matters because it provides a concrete, traceable path for authorities to cut off illicit liquidity without wholesale disruption to legitimate users.
On-chain data also point to shifting liquidity patterns within the broader market. USDt supply has declined notably in early 2026, with February marking one of the largest monthly reductions in three years, a development that coincided with declines in USDC as well. While Tether has argued that the contraction reflects distribution patterns rather than weakening demand, the data align with a broader narrative of tighter liquidity in crypto markets following the FTX episode and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. For users and institutions, this confluence of reduced supply and heightened enforcement signals an environment in which on-chain risk management, asset compliance, and regulatory expectations will increasingly shape day-to-day decision-making.
Looking ahead, observers anticipate ongoing adjustments across stablecoins as enforcement, compliance, and market structure continue to intertwine. The conversations around stablecoin freezes, on-chain blacklisting, and real-world enforcement actions will likely influence policy considerations, product design, and the practical ways in which traders, wallets, and exchanges manage liquidity. While the tools at hand—address-level sanctions and blacklists—offer clear utility for disrupting illicit activity, they also introduce new questions about resilience, user experience, and maintaining open, efficient channels for legitimate commerce in a rapidly evolving digital money landscape.
In sum, the actions surrounding USDt reflect a crypto market increasingly governed by traceability and accountability, even as it operates within the decentralized promise of blockchain networks. The balance between regulatory compliance and the foundational ethos of permissionless finance remains a live debate, one that will continue to shape the trajectory of stablecoins, market liquidity, and cross-border financial flows in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways
- Confidential IPO paperwork expected from SpaceX to the SEC by March 2026
- Public market debut targeted for June, with potential valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion
- Capital raise could reach $50 billion, setting a new record for IPO proceeds
- Recent xAI merger adds complexity to SpaceX’s financial reporting structure
- AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic considering 2026 public offerings at $750B–$830B and ~$350B valuations
Elon Musk’s aerospace manufacturer SpaceX is gearing up to submit confidential IPO paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by March 2026, per reporting from Bloomberg.
This confidential submission would position the company for a public market debut potentially in June 2026. Industry sources suggest SpaceX is pursuing a valuation that exceeds $1.75 trillion.
At such a valuation, SpaceX would join an elite group of the planet’s most valuable corporations. The company would sit alongside tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia.
The capital raising component could hit $50 billion, establishing a new benchmark as the most substantial IPO ever executed. No previous public offering has approached this magnitude of fundraising.
Headquartered in Starbase, Texas, SpaceX commands the Falcon 9 launch platform and manages Starlink, a satellite-based internet service reaching millions worldwide.
The aerospace firm accounts for more than 50% of Earth’s orbital launches. Its breakthrough reusable rocket technology revolutionized space access economics.
SpaceX achieves Ebitda profit margins estimated at 50%. Traditional aerospace firms listed on the S&P 500 typically deliver margins around 20% by the same metric.
Executives have indicated Starlink turned profitable during 2024, when its subscriber base was approximately half its current size. The launch division is similarly expected to operate profitably based on its cost advantages.
The xAI Integration Challenge
SpaceX completed a merger with Musk’s AI venture xAI in recent months. This transaction combines SpaceX’s space infrastructure with xAI’s artificial intelligence computing operations.
xAI doesn’t appear to generate profits and competes in an expensive, saturated market segment. The integration complicates efforts to evaluate SpaceX’s consolidated financial health before going public.
Analysts project SpaceX might produce up to $10 billion in Ebitda during 2026, though this estimate depends heavily on xAI’s loss contribution to the merged company.
Confidential filing procedures allow companies to address regulatory requirements with the SEC privately before disclosing financials publicly. Regulatory rules require at least 15 days between public filing and roadshow commencement.
Additional Major Tech Listings Expected
SpaceX could lead a trio of significant technology IPOs scheduled for 2026. OpenAI reportedly seeks a valuation ranging from $750 billion to $830 billion.
Anthropic, focused on AI safety research, may pursue approximately $10 billion in funding at roughly $350 billion valuation. Both organizations are monitoring SpaceX’s IPO trajectory.
SpaceX hasn’t issued official statements regarding the IPO timeline. Plans remain fluid and the company retains the option to postpone its filing schedule.
Crypto World
AXP Shares Plunge 8% as Block’s AI-Driven Workforce Cuts Trigger Financial Sector Alarm
TLDR
- Block revealed plans to eliminate more than 4,000 positions (approximately 40% of staff), attributing the decision to AI capabilities
- The announcement triggered concerns about potential AI-driven disruption facing legacy financial institutions like American Express
- AXP shares plummeted nearly 8% during Friday’s trading session
- Significant put option volume indicated traders positioning for additional downside, with put-to-call ratio reaching 2.6
- Year-to-date, AXP has declined 11.39% while implied volatility surged
Shares of American Express $AXP plummeted nearly 8% during Friday trading after Block’s dramatic workforce reduction announcement sent shockwaves through financial services stocks.
Block revealed plans to eliminate over 4,000 positions, representing approximately 40% of its employee base. The disclosure came as part of the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results.
In explaining the dramatic restructuring, Block’s founder and CEO Jack Dorsey pointed to artificial intelligence as the driving force. His shareholder letter stated: “A significantly smaller team, using the tools we’re building, can do more and do it better.”
Dorsey emphasized that “intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week,” making clear this represents an ongoing transformation rather than an isolated cost-cutting measure.
The announcement resonated powerfully with market participants. The logic was straightforward: if a digitally-native payments platform like Block can eliminate nearly half its workforce through AI implementation, what implications does this hold for established financial institutions?
This reasoning placed American Express squarely in investors’ sights. Even with its robust infrastructure and substantial technology investments spanning decades, the market viewed AXP as potentially exposed to similar pressures.
The selloff was swift and substantial. AXP shed nearly 8% throughout the session, settling at $307.95. Intraday trading ranged between $307.67 and $321.01.
Options Activity Reflects Heightened Anxiety
The equity decline was accompanied by notable derivatives market movement that reinforced bearish sentiment.
Approximately 22,400 put contracts traded on Friday, representing roughly five times typical daily volume. Considerable interest centered on March and June 2026 $280 strike puts, which saw approximately 4,700 contracts traded.
The put-to-call ratio surged to around 2.6, a definitive indication that traders were securing downside hedges rather than positioning for upside moves.
At-the-money implied volatility increased by over six points, signaling heightened expectations for significant price movements in AXP shares going forward.
Wider Market Picture
Friday’s decline extends a challenging period for the stock. AXP has now surrendered 11.39% year-to-date, marking a difficult opening to 2026 for shares that recently touched a 52-week peak of $387.49.
Typical daily trading volume averages approximately 3.1 million shares. Friday’s volume registered just 379,000, indicating the decline was sentiment-driven rather than the result of widespread selling pressure.
American Express maintains a market capitalization around $212 billion, operates with a gross margin of 60.65%, and offers shareholders a dividend yield of 1.06%.
Current technical indicators for the company show a “Buy” signal, though that guidance hasn’t prevented the recent downward trajectory.
AXP has incorporated AI technologies into its business operations for years and has navigated numerous technological transitions throughout its history. Nevertheless, Block’s workforce announcement proved sufficient to prompt Friday’s investor exodus.
The concentration of put option interest in March and June 2026 expirations indicates market participants are anticipating sustained volatility for AXP shares through the middle of the year.
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