Riot stock price rose by over 1.2% on Monday as Bitcoin and other altcoins rose despite the ongoing geopolitical risks. It also rose as traders waited for its financial results.

RIOT stock rose to $16.50 from the intraday low of $15.45. It remains 40% above its lowest level in February, with the market capitalization soaring to over $6.14 billion.

Wall Street analysts expect the upcoming results to show that the Bitcoin (BTC) mining giant did well in the last quarter, with its revenue rising by 10% to $158 million. Its annual revenue is expected to come in at $658 million, up by 75% YoY.

The most recent showed that its revenue jumped to $180 million in the third quarter from $84 million in the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by its mining operations, whose revenue rose from $67 million to $160 million. Its engineering revenue rose to $19 million from $12 million.

Like other Bitcoin mining companies, Riot Platforms is facing major challenges as the coin remains in a technical bear market after falling by over 40% from its all-time high. As a result, it is expanding to the data colocation industry, which is booming as companies boost their capital expenditure.

It recently acquired 200 acres of land in Texas to expand its mining operations. Also, it entered a data center leasing agreement with AMD, a top semiconductor company. Its initial deal is for 25 MW of IT capacity.

Riot Platforms is under pressure from Starboard Value, an activist investor, who believes that it should accelerate its transition into a data center operator. It wants it to accelerate the rollout of its data centers, a move that will make it more attractive to hyperscalers. For example, IREN has already inked deals worth over $10 billion, while CoreWeave has a backlog of over $50 billion.

Riot Platforms stock price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the Riot Platforms share price has rebounded from the year-to-date low of $11.85 in February to the current $16.50. 

It remains between the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. It also moved slightly above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average.

However, the stock has also formed a diamond reversal pattern, which often leads to a bearish breakdown.

Therefore, it will likely have a bearish breakdown after its earnings. If this happens, the next key target to watch will be the psychological level at $15. 

Bitcoin price impulsive rally is approaching a dense resistance cluster, raising concerns that the move could evolve into a bull trap.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has staged a sharp recovery from recent lows near $60,000, pushing price back toward the upper boundary of its broader trading channel. While the rally has improved short-term sentiment, the technical landscape suggests caution.

Multiple layers of resistance now converge above price, creating conditions where upside continuation may struggle to sustain momentum.

Bitcoin price key technical points

• Channel Resistance: Price approaching upper boundary of established trading channel.
• Fibonacci Confluence: Overhead resistance aligns with key swing high and moving averages.
• Volume Concern: Declining participation signals potential bull trap formation.

Bitcoin price recent rally has carried price above the channel midpoint, signaling short-term strength within the broader range. However, the move is now testing the upper channel boundary, an area that has repeatedly capped upside since $60,000 was established as the weekly low. This level represents a key structural ceiling within the ongoing consolidation phase.

Adding to the resistance confluence is the presence of a significant Fibonacci retracement level, which overlaps with a prior swing high and descending moving average resistance. When multiple technical indicators align within a narrow price zone, markets often react decisively. In this case, the overlapping resistance cluster increases the probability of rejection rather than breakout continuation.

Volume dynamics further reinforce caution. Despite the impulsive appearance of the rally, trading volume has steadily declined as price approaches resistance. Healthy breakouts typically require expanding participation to confirm strength.

Instead, fading volume suggests that buying pressure may be weakening, a classic precursor to bull trap scenarios, particularly as roughly 46% of Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, nearing levels seen during the 2022 bear market.

A bull trap typically forms when price briefly breaks above resistance, attracting breakout buyers, only to reverse sharply and close back below key levels. Should Bitcoin fail to hold above the channel high and instead fall back into the channel structure, it would signal weakness and confirm the trap setup. A bearish close back within the channel would likely shift momentum downward.

If rejection occurs, the next logical destination would be the lower boundary of the trading channel. Notably, the channel support has not been retested since the $60,000 weekly low was formed. Markets frequently revisit untested support zones to rebalance liquidity before determining the next major direction.

From a broader market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains range-bound rather than in confirmed bullish expansion. Without a decisive breakout supported by strong volume, rallies into resistance carry elevated failure risk.

The confluence of Fibonacci resistance, moving averages, and structural channel highs strengthens the argument that this zone may cap upside in the near term, particularly as Bitcoin navigates a defensive liquidity backdrop amid escalating US–Iran tensions and broader market volatility.

What to expect in the coming price action

Bitcoin’s rally remains vulnerable while testing confluence resistance with declining volume. A rejection from this zone would confirm a potential bull trap and increase the probability of a corrective move back toward channel support near $60,000.

Only a strong breakout with volume confirmation would shift the outlook decisively bullish.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added 21,000 BTC worth $1.45 billion, marking the first major accumulation wave since mid-October 2025.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded one of their best days for weeks in terms of inflows on February 25, marking their first meaningful increase in holdings since mid-October 2025.

The shift comes as analysts point to falling retail flows and heavy unrealized losses among newer buyers as signs that market structure could be turning.

The Institutional Signal vs. Retail Exit

In a March 2 market update, analyst Amr Taha tracked two key data points that suggest a major shift in how Bitcoin moves between different types of investors. The first chart tracks 30-day cumulative Bitcoin inflows to Binance, separated into retail inflows (small investor flows) and whale inflows (large investor flows).

According to the chart, between February 6 and March 2, retail inflows dropped significantly, going from $14.1 billion down to $9.05 billion, a total contraction of approximately $5 billion.

What makes this interesting, Taha explained, is that nearly identical patterns appeared twice in 2025, with retail inflows contracting by about $8 billion from March 5 to April 7 of that year and falling by around $5 billion from June 6 to June 22. In both cases, the drop in retail inflows happened right before significant market movements.

The second chart tracks the total Bitcoin held by all US spot ETFs combined. Here, Taha observed something important occurring on February 25: for the first time since mid-October, ETF holdings increased meaningfully. Approximately 21,000 BTC flowed into the funds, equivalent to $1.45 billion at current prices, marking what Taha called the first noticeable accumulation wave after months of stagnation.

“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while declining demand often aligns with price weakness,” the crypto trader noted.

However, data from SoSoValue and FarSide show a different number. Both sites claim that the actual net inflows on February 25 were just over $500 million, or almost three times less than what Taha suggested. Nevertheless, it was still the best day for net inflows since mid-January.

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Market Situation and Sentiment

The broader backdrop for this on-chain signal has been brutal, with Bitcoin posting five consecutive monthly losses for the first time since 2018, after ending February with a nearly 15% drop. The asset is currently trading just above $66,000, down by over 20% in the past month and sitting 47% below its October 2025 all-time high.

Analyst Crypto Dan offered additional context on market psychology, noting that most investors who purchased Bitcoin within the past two years are currently in loss positions.

“In the investment market, sharp reductions often follow when the majority of people are making big profits, and conversely, strong rallies tend to begin after most people experience significant losses,” he pointed out.

Dan suggested that if Bitcoin’s price drops below $60,000, putting the majority of investors (excluding very long-term holders) into loss territory, it could represent an accumulation opportunity for those with clear entry criteria.

As it is, Taha’s data suggests institutional buyers are already making that calculation, even as retail traders step back.

Fold, a publicly traded Bitcoin financial services company, has eliminated $66.3 million in convertible debt, removing a potential source of share dilution and simplifying its balance sheet as it prepares to expand its product lineup.

In a recent disclosure, Fold said it retired two outstanding convertible notes, which are debt instruments that can be converted into equity at a later date. By paying them off, the company reduces the risk that new shares would be issued in the future, which may dilute existing shareholders.

Fold also said it released 521 Bitcoin (BTC) that had been pledged as collateral against the debt. With the notes retired, those Bitcoin holdings are no longer encumbered and can now be used for corporate purposes.

The company said the restructuring leaves it with fewer financing restrictions and greater operational flexibility. Fold plans to use that flexibility to support growth initiatives, including the rollout of a consumer-targeted Bitcoin rewards credit card that offers BTC instead of traditional points or cash-back rewards.

Founded in 2019, Fold went public on the Nasdaq in February 2025 through a SPAC merger with FTAC Emerald Acquisition, becoming one of the first Bitcoin-focused financial services companies to trade on a major US exchange.

Related: ProCap boosts Bitcoin holdings to 5,457 BTC, aims to narrow NAV discount

Crypto rewards cards compete for users

Fold built its brand as a Bitcoin rewards platform, offering a debit card that allows users to spend US dollars while earning Bitcoin cashback on everyday purchases. Over time, the company expanded its services to include savings features and merchant partnerships aimed at encouraging Bitcoin accumulation rather than direct crypto spending.

Competition is fierce in the crypto rewards space, with a number of other companies offering similar products.

The Coinbase Card, for example, allows users to spend cryptocurrency balances directly and earn crypto rewards on purchases. It is now part of Coinbase’s broader “super app” strategy announced last fall, which aims to integrate payments, trading and other financial services into a single platform.

Rival offering Nexo Card lets customers borrow against their crypto holdings to make purchases without selling their assets, while earning rewards. Bybit and Crypto.com offer Visa-branded cards that provide cashback in crypto tokens tied to their platforms.

More recently, Mastercard and MetaMask launched a US crypto-linked card that allows users to spend digital assets at any merchant that accepts Mastercard, with crypto converted to fiat at the point of sale.

Related: PayPal draws takeover interest following 46% stock slide: Report