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Nvidia, Palantir stocks sink amid growth, value rotation

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nvidia stock

Nvidia shares slid to their lowest level since December, falling roughly 20% from record highs as an accelerating rotation from growth to value pushed the world’s most valuable company into bear-market territory.

Similarly, Palantir stock dropped to $130 as crypto.news predicted before its earnings. 

Summary

  • NVIDIA share price dropped into a bear market on Thursday.
  • There are signs that investors are dumping growth stocks.
  • Technical analysis points to a drop to $150.

Why is Nvidia down?

The ongoing Nvidia stock crash mirrors that of other growth companies. For example, AMD, its key competitor, tumbled to $194, down 27% from its December high.

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The software sector slid into a technical bear market, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) down more than 20% as investor anxiety around AI disruption fueled what some are calling a “SaaSpocalypse.” Fears that autonomous AI agents could replace traditional software licenses have weighed on stocks such as Palantir, which continued to sink.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives pushed back on the pessimism, calling the selloff a “software garage sale” and arguing the market is pricing in an unrealistic doomsday scenario. Ives said enterprise software remains deeply embedded, citing data security risks and migration costs. He named Palantir, Microsoft, Snowflake, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike as long-term winners despite the recent panic.

On the other hand

Value companies are doing well, with the Vanguard Value ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend ETF (SCHD) rising by nearly 10% this year. They are all trading at their all-time highs. 

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Nvidia stock has crashed as traders reflect on key concerns. For example, there are concerns about whether big-tech companies will continue their spending. These concerns accelerated after Microsoft’s report showed that its cloud revenue slowed in the fourth quarter. Its stock has dropped to $400, down by 27 from its all-time high. 

Therefore, there is a risk that the company and other top hyperscalers will begin to pare back their spending to please investors concerned about return on investment.

NVIDIA stock has sunk as investors remain concerned about its Chinese business. A report by the Financial Times said that the Trump administration was still conducting a review on sales of H200 chips to China. Beijing has allowed ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba to buy 400k chips.

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At the same time, Nvidia’s biggest customers are working on their own ASIC chips. Google is working on its TPU chips, while Amazon, Microsoft, and OpenAI are hoping to launch theirs soon. This development may lead to competition and lower sales in the long-term. 

The next key catalyst for Nvidia’s stock price is its financial results, which will provide more information about its business. Analysts anticipate its revenue will come in at $67 billion, up over 50% from 2024. Its annual revenue is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2027 or 2028.

NVIDIA share price technical analysis

nvidia stock
 NVDA stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the NVDA share price is flashing red signals. It has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern and is now at the neckline. This is one of the most common bearish reversal sign.

It has moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, it retreated below the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the most likely forecast is that it continues falling, potentially to $150, the 50% retracement level.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt