Crypto World
NVIDIA Stock Price Prediction: Nasdaq Gains on AI Spending, but a 300x Crypto Entry Outperforms
The Nasdaq is moving on AI spending again. Nvidia just invested $2 billion into an AI cloud company, and the GTC conference starts Monday. For stock investors, this is familiar territory: buy NVIDIA and hope the AI cycle has another leg.
But one asset class is producing returns that even the best NVIDIA stock price prediction cannot touch. Crypto presales with real revenue infrastructure are delivering pre IPO entries that Wall Street does not offer, and the math is not close.
Nvidia announced a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius Group, an AI cloud infrastructure company, sending NBIS shares up over 15% according to CNBC. The GTC 2026 conference runs March 16 to 19 in San Jose, with multiple AI partnerships already announced per Motley Fool reporting.
The NVIDIA stock price prediction stays bullish, but $264 is a 42% gain on a $4.5 trillion company. The returns that change financial lives are not on the Nasdaq. They are in the presale market.
Where the Real Returns Live: Pepeto Exchange vs Wall Street’s Best Stocks in 2026
Pepeto: The Pre IPO Entry That Delivers What NVIDIA’s 42% Gain Cannot
The recent freeze of $5 million in Bitcoin at a centralized lending firm reminded the market how fast things can go wrong when you trust the wrong institution. That kind of vulnerability is exactly why smart capital is flowing into projects with audited infrastructure and transparent revenue models. Pepeto is one of those projects, and it is outpacing every presale in the market right now.
The presale is the equivalent of a pre IPO round still open to the public. The exchange is built, the SolidProof audit is complete, and the cofounder already took a previous project to a $7 billion market cap. In stock terms, that is like backing a founder who already built a company worth more than Palantir.
The presale has attracted $7.87 million and fills faster with every round. A former Binance expert on the advisory board is guiding the listing onto the largest crypto exchange in the world. The listing is the IPO moment, the event where the market prices this asset for the first time on the open market.
The 300x target follows the revenue model. The exchange processes trades across three blockchain networks with zero fees, and every trade sends revenue back to every holder through the audited smart contract. NVIDIA delivered a 10x over five years. The 300x math requires only the listing valuation that exchange tokens routinely achieve, in months, not half a decade.
Even if you have never touched crypto, the staking mechanics speak in a language every investor understands. At 209% annual yield, a $10,000 position generates roughly $20,900 in additional tokens over a year, which is about $1,741 per month. The S&P 500 averages 10%. Treasury bonds pay 4.5%. This is 209%, compounding daily, with no lock period on your capital. And the listing is approaching, which means the yield builds your position while the market prepares to price it for the first time. Every day you are not inside the presale is a day where that yield is working for someone else.
NVIDIA Stock Price Prediction: Analysts Target $264 but Return Math Has Changed
NVDA trades at $184, with a 12 month consensus target of $264 from 37 analysts, reflecting a 42% gain per Stock Analysis data. Revenue hit $215 billion in fiscal 2026, up 65% year over year.
Source : TradingView
The GTC conference supports the thesis. But at $4.5 trillion, even hitting $380 gives 104% over a year, which is solid for stocks but modest compared to pre listing entries.
Apple Stock Price Prediction: AAPL Consolidates Near $255
AAPL trades at $255, down 2.1% on the day per Yahoo Finance. The 52 week range spans $169 to $288. Medium term forecasts suggest a climb above $300, representing roughly 18% from current levels.
Apple generates strong cash flow, but at $3.8 trillion, the returns are single digit percentages that stock investors accept as normal.
Conclusion
The investors who bought Tesla at $17 before it listed on the mainstream exchange understood something that most people learn too late: the biggest gains come before the ticker goes public. Pepeto is sitting at that same stage right now, with a SolidProof audited exchange, 209% APY staking, and a Binance listing approaching.
Pepeto gives you 209% APY starting today and exchange token math that trillion dollar stocks cannot touch. Visit the Pepeto official website and enter the presale before the listing arrives and this pre IPO window closes behind every investor who missed it while it was still open.
Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale
FAQ
Is NVIDIA stock or Pepeto a better investment right now?
NVIDIA targets $264 for a 42% return. Pepeto at presale pricing with 209% APY and exchange infrastructure offers returns that trillion dollar stocks cannot produce. Visit the Pepeto official website for full details.
Can a crypto presale outperform the Nasdaq?
The Nasdaq averages 12 to 15% annually. Pepeto with $7.87 million raised, a SolidProof audit, and a Binance listing approaching offers multiples that decades of stock investing cannot match.
What is the NVIDIA stock price prediction for 2026?
Analysts target $264 with a high of $380 for NVIDIA. Pepeto at presale pricing targets the kind of returns that NVIDIA delivered once over five years, except the timeline is months, not years.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Elon Musk’s X Money Could Beat Bitcoin, Claims Famous Analyst
The one asset Wall Street spent a decade trying to kill just got dissed by the guy who wrote the book on unpredictable events.
Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan and one of the most vocal Bitcoin critics in intellectual circles, called Elon Musk’s X Money “much, much smarter than Bitcoin” after Musk announced early public access to the payments service is coming next month.
The crypto bros were not happy. The debate lit up X within hours.
X Money is Musk’s play at turning X into an everything app. Beta rolled out earlier this month. It runs on fiat, backed by a real bank, has a Visa-partnered physical debit card personalized with your X handle, and has zero connection to any cryptocurrency.
Taleb’s argument is private currencies compete with each other. X Money, being issued by a private company with real infrastructure and mainstream reach, fits that framing better than a decentralized asset he has called fragile for years.
He previously argued Bitcoin fails as both a currency and a hedge. His position has not changed. It has just found a new target to contrast against.
The pushback was immediate. Critics pointed out Taleb has been consistently wrong on Bitcoin for years and that X Money is structurally no different from PayPal or Zelle.
And they are not entirely wrong. But noise from critics has never been what moves Bitcoin price. What moves it is institutional flow, macro conditions, and sentiment.
With that in mind, let’s look at the BTC chart.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Break This Resistance Zone?
BTC is sitting at $70,471 on the 2h chart, trading inside a rising wedge that has been compressing since early February, with price currently pressing up against the $72,000 first resistance zone.
The wedge is the key structure to watch here because these patterns typically resolve to the downside, and the chart itself acknowledges that risk with a dotted path showing a potential flush toward $64,000 before any real recovery leg develops.
That $64,000 level has already proven itself as a serious demand zone, getting tested and holding twice within the wedge, and below that sits the $60,000 floor, which is the last major support before the structure fully breaks down.
On the bull case, a clean break and hold above $72,000 opens the ladder toward $80,000, then $84,000, and the full $90,000 target marked on the chart.
But until $72,000 flips to support, the breakdown scenario toward $64,000 remains on the table and cannot be ignored.
Bitcoin Hyper Is Turning Bitcoin From a Store of Value Into Something You Can Actually Use
Bitcoin reacts to every macro headline. Spikes, settles, repeats. Same cycle.
But the real issue with Bitcoin has nothing to do with inflation reports. It is slow. It is limited. And for everyday use, it just does not cut it.
That is exactly what Bitcoin Hyper is building around.
The idea is clear.
Take Bitcoin’s security and trust. Add Solana-level speed and efficiency on top. The result is a version of Bitcoin that actually does things. Faster payments, staking, decentralized apps, BTC that moves instead of just sitting in a wallet.
Not just a store of value. An ecosystem.
That opens the door for real activity on top of Bitcoin. Faster payments, staking opportunities, decentralized apps, and an ecosystem where BTC can actually move instead of sitting idle.
Investors are clearly paying attention to that vision. The Bitcoin Hyper presale has already raised more than $32 million, with $HYPER currently priced at $0.0136751 before the next scheduled price increase.
There is also a strong incentive for early participants. Buyers can stake their tokens and earn rewards of up to 37%, the kind of yield that often attracts early momentum when new projects start gaining traction across the market.
Visit the Official Bitcoin Hyper Website Here
The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Elon Musk’s X Money Could Beat Bitcoin, Claims Famous Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.
Ethereum’s price has risen for four consecutive days and is now hovering around the crucial support level of $2,000, as BlackRock launches its first staking ETF today, March 12.
Summary
- BlackRock will launch ETHB today, its first staking Ethereum ETF.
- ETHB will have an expense ratio of 0.25%, making it a better option than ETHA.
- Ethereum has formed a bearish flag pattern, pointing to a retreat.
Ethereum (ETH), the second-biggest cryptocurrency, trades at $2,056, inside a range it has remained in in the past 30 days. This price is nearly 60% below its all-time high.
A major catalyst for ETH price is that BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, will launch its staking ETF today. This is a big milestone that will address a key challenge that has existed in the existing funds.
Existing Ethereum ETFs, which have over $11.85 billion in assets, don’t offer staking rewards, making them less ideal to most investors. In BlackRock’s case, holders of the ETHA ETF pay an annual fee of 0.25% and forego a monthly return. Data shows that Ethereum has a staking return of about 3%.
The new ETF will have a ticker of ETHB and an annual fee of 0.25%. It will initially have a fee waiver of 0.12% for the first year or when it hits $2.5 billion in assets.
Therefore, a likely scenario is where there is a rotation from ETHA and other Ethereum ETFs to ETHB. It may also lead to more inflows from investors who have not invested in these funds yet.
Ethereum price prediction
The daily timeframe chart shows that the ETH price crashed from the all-time high of $4,950 to the current $2,065. It has constantly remained below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since November last year when it formed a death cross pattern.
Ethereum price has formed a horizontal channel whose support and resistance levels are at $1,843 and $2,193. It has remained inside this channel since February 6 this year.
This channel formed after the coin declined sharply, meaning that this is part of a bearish flag pattern. In most cases, this pattern often leads to a strong bearish breakout.
Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakout in the near term. If this happens, the initial target will be the lower side of the channel at $1,843. A drop below that price will lead to further downside, potentially to $1,500.
JPMorgan faces a U.S. class action for allegedly enabling Goliath Ventures’ $328M crypto Ponzi via Chase accounts and exchange transfers.
Summary
- Investors claim Goliath raised $328M from 2,000+ victims through JPMorgan business accounts, routing $123M to Coinbase while paying out only $50M in “profits.”
- The suit alleges JPMorgan ignored AML red flags on high‑velocity, circular transfers, effectively extending the scheme’s life and investor losses.
- The case could set precedent on when banks become liable as “enablers” of crypto fraud, tightening KYC/AML expectations on fiat rails into exchanges.
JPMorgan is facing a new class-action lawsuit in the U.S. over its alleged role in banking a $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme that funneled investor funds through Chase accounts and onto major exchanges, according to recent court filings and monitoring data.
JPMorgan sued over alleged $328M crypto Ponzi exposure
A group of investors has filed a class-action complaint in federal court in Northern California, accusing JPMorgan Chase of knowingly or negligently providing banking services to a large-scale crypto Ponzi scheme operated by Goliath Ventures. The lawsuit alleges that roughly $253 million in investor funds were first deposited into Chase accounts controlled by the scheme’s operators, before approximately $123 million was routed to Coinbase and other exchanges, while only about $50 million was returned to investors as purported “profits.”
According to the complaint, plaintiffs claim JPMorgan failed to act on multiple anti–money laundering red flags, including rapid, large-value transfers inconsistent with declared business activities and repeated inflows from retail investors. They argue that the bank’s alleged failure to file or escalate suspicious activity reports allowed the scheme to continue far longer than it otherwise would have, dramatically increasing total losses. The case seeks damages for investors and aims to hold one of the world’s largest banks liable for what plaintiffs frame as willful blindness to obvious fraud patterns.
Potential precedent for banking rails in crypto fraud
If the case proceeds, it could become a test of how far U.S. courts are willing to extend liability to traditional financial institutions that provide fiat on- and off-ramps to crypto-related investments. Plaintiffs are effectively arguing that banks cannot treat crypto fraud as an external problem while continuing to profit from deposit flows and payment processing tied to suspicious schemes.
For the broader digital asset sector, the lawsuit underscores a growing regulatory and legal focus on “enablers” of fraud, not just token issuers or platform operators. Exchanges and custodians already sit under heavy scrutiny; extending that lens to global banks that process billions in flows for crypto investment products could reshape compliance expectations around KYC/AML, transaction monitoring, and de-banking of high-risk promoters. The outcome is likely to be closely watched by both Wall Street and major crypto venues, given the central role of banking rails in market structure and liquidity.
XRP price has gone nowhere in the last 30 days as third-party data reveals that demand from Wall Street investors has stalled.
Summary
- XRP price has remained in a narrow range in the last 30 days.
- Demand from Wall Street investors has waned in this period.
- The coin could be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Theory.
Ripple (XRP) token was trading at $1.3825 today, March 12, inside a range it has remained at in the past few weeks. This price is 63% below its highest point last year.
Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that spot XRP ETFs have shed over $26 million in assets this month. This is the first month that these funds have experienced outflows since they were launched in November.
The numbers show that the funds did not experience any inflow on Wednesday. Before that, they experienced outflows in the previous four consecutive days. They now hold $985 million in assets under management.
A recent report showed that some of the biggest companies in Wall Street holds XRP ETFs. Goldman Sachs holds XRP ETFs worth $154 million, and is followed by top companies like Millennium Management, Logan Stone Capital, Citadel, and Jain Global.
More data shows that demand for XRP has dropped in the past few weeks. For example, according to CoinGecko, the daily volume stood at $2.3 billion today, down from over $4 billion the same day last week.
XRP’s futures open interest has dropped in the past few months, moving from last year’s high of over $10 billion to $2.4 billion today. The same has happened in the CME, where futures contracts are seeing weak demand.
XRP price technical analysis
The four-hour chart shows that the Ripple token has remained in a narrow range in the past few months. It has remained inside the key support and resistance levels at $1.3160 and $1.4627.
The volatility has dropped, with the Average True Range has remained in a downward trend. It is also oscillating at the 50-period and 100-period moving averages.
On the positive side, this is a sign that coin is in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Theory. This phase is usually characterized by sideways movements.
Therefore, while its too early to predict, there is a possibility that the coin will have a strong bullish breakout. Its initial target will be at $1.4627, the upper side of the channel. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at $1.6658, its highest point in February this year.
Key Takeaways
- NIO has successfully broken above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with both trend lines now pointing upward
- Technical indicators show bullish RSI divergence alongside significant volume increases during rallies, suggesting diminishing bearish pressure
- Chart analysis reveals a double bottom formation with a breakout level at $5.79, projecting a move toward $8 by late 2026
- Call option volume reached 58,591 contracts with an exceptionally low put/call ratio of 0.30, indicating bullish sentiment
- Fellow Chinese EV competitor XPeng (XPEV) climbed 14% this week, reinforcing sector-wide momentum
Holding NIO shares has tested investors’ patience considerably. Following its peak above $60 in the first quarter of 2021, the Chinese electric vehicle maker endured a prolonged decline that ultimately bottomed in single-digit territory. However, recent price action suggests a potential turning point.
Shares were changing hands near $5.60 on Thursday, marking an approximate 19% weekly advance — positioning this week as the strongest performance since late August 2025, assuming momentum holds through Friday’s trading session.
The technical configuration is capturing market attention. NIO has successfully recaptured both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages during this week’s rally, with both indicators now trending upward. This represents a significant departure from the stock’s positioning just a few months earlier.
Technical analysts have identified a bullish RSI divergence, characterized by ascending RSI lows despite the stock printing lower price lows. This divergence typically indicates weakening downside momentum. Trading volume corroborates this interpretation — pronounced volume surges accompanying upward price movement represent a textbook indication of institutional accumulation.
The stock has also successfully retested a bull flag breakout pattern that originated in August. A double bottom formation has emerged with a pivot point established at $5.79. The catalyst for this pattern was a bearish island reversal that concluded with a 7.3% downward gap on December 31. NIO subsequently printed a bullish hammer candlestick on March 3, followed immediately by a bullish island reversal to the upside in the next trading session.
Analysts are projecting an upside objective of $8 by the latter half of 2026 — representing a 42% appreciation from current price levels. The bullish scenario remains viable above support at $4.75.
Extended Time Frame Analysis
Examining the five-year weekly chart provides greater clarity regarding the bottoming process. Since early 2024, NIO has been trading within what appears to be a base-building consolidation pattern. Beginning in October, the right shoulder of a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders formation has been developing.
Should the stock clear the $8 resistance threshold later in 2026, the extended-term projection based on this pattern suggests a potential move toward $13 by early 2027.
Accumulation patterns have been evident since the previous summer, with buyers consistently defending lower price levels.
Options Activity Reflects Bullish Positioning
The derivatives market is reflecting the underlying momentum. Thursday saw 58,591 call contracts trade hands in NIO. Short-dated contracts expiring March 13 and March 26 comprised approximately 19,900 of that total. The put/call ratio currently stands at just 0.30 — an unusually low figure indicating traders are purchasing call options at more than three times the rate of protective puts.
Implied volatility has also expanded, reflecting heightened speculative interest in the name.
NIO’s upcoming quarterly earnings announcement is scheduled for June 2, which may be contributing to the increased options positioning.
On a year-to-date basis, NIO has advanced 7.25%. The company’s current market capitalization is $12.48 billion.
XPeng is experiencing similar strength this week, climbing 14% as of Thursday afternoon and positioned to break a three-week losing streak.
Vitalik Buterin reframes Ethereum as censorship‑resistant “global shared memory,” with PeerDAS scaling its data layer for voting, identity, and on‑chain coordination.
Summary
- Vitalik says Ethereum’s main role is an open, readable and writable data availability layer, more than a smart contract or payments platform.
- He casts ETH as core Sybil resistance and collateral securing this shared memory, with DeFi and apps built on top of that base.
- PeerDAS is already boosting Ethereum’s data capacity, with plans for 10–100x gains to support voting, identity, and governance use cases.
Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin says the network’s real value lies in acting as a globally shared “bulletin board” for data availability, rather than just a smart contract or payments platform, sharpening the narrative around Ethereum’s role in the broader crypto stack.
Vitalik reframes Ethereum’s core value
In a new post on X, Buterin argued that Ethereum’s fundamental contribution is providing a publicly readable and writable data layer that cryptographic protocols can reliably anchor to. He highlighted that many high-value use cases—secure online voting, software version control, certificate revocation and more—depend on having an open, persistent data space rather than purely on complex smart contract logic.
Buterin framed ETH not only as a payment asset, but as a core instrument for Sybil resistance and as collateral for smart contracts, positioning it at the center of a decentralized, privacy-preserving, open-source technology stack. In his view, smart contracts and DeFi are extensions built atop this shared memory, not the base value proposition itself.
PeerDAS, scaling, and “global shared memory”
Buterin also pointed to Ethereum’s PeerDAS upgrade as a key step in scaling this data availability layer, saying it already increases Ethereum’s data capacity by about 2.3x, with a path toward 10–100x gains over time. Improved data throughput, combined with lower fees, is meant to support a broader range of applications beyond DeFi, including governance systems, identity, and new classes of on-chain coordination tools.
He summed up Ethereum as a kind of “global shared memory,” where applications can reliably publish and read data in a neutral environment secured by ETH-based economic incentives. For developers and protocols, the message is clear: treat Ethereum first as a durable, censorship-resistant data availability layer, and only secondarily as a smart contract execution chain.
BlackRock’s staked Ethereum exchange-traded fund has tallied $15.5 million in trading volume on its first trading day, which a market analyst described as “very, very solid” despite falling short of two similar Solana staking products that launched last year.
Nasdaq data shows the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) had 592,804 shares traded on its debut on Thursday, with Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noting on X that the product turned over around $15.5 million.
“Very, very solid for a day 1 ETF launch,” Seyffart said.
The ETF invests and stakes Ether (ETH), locking up the tokens on the blockchain with the aim of providing a yield. The fund relies on network validators to capture staking rewards, typically offering a yield of 4% annually.
ETHB’s $15.5 million in debut trading volume trailed similar staking funds tied to the Solana (SOL) token, including the $55.4 million in volume recorded by the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) when it debuted in October. Another similar fund, the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF (SSK), also recorded $33.7 million on its debut in July.
ETHB adds to BlackRock’s crypto product lineup, which includes its two flagship crypto funds, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA).
Related: Basic adds VanEck crypto ETFs to 401(k) plans amid US retirement shift
The two ETFs have respectively attracted over $62.8 billion and $11.9 billion worth of inflows since launching in 2024, Farside Investors data shows.
BlackRock is also looking to offer a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, which would sell covered call options on Bitcoin futures, collecting premiums to generate yield.
ETHB is backed by 80% staked Ether and 20% Ether, according to BlackRock’s website. It launched with $106.7 million in net assets, which is being custodied by Coinbase.
Staking rewards will be distributed on a monthly basis and will be obtained from Ethereum network validators run by Figment, Galaxy Digital and Bitwise-owned Attestant.
ETHB offers a 0.25% sponsor fee with a one-year waiver, reducing the fee to 0.12% on the first $2.5 billion assets under management.
Magazine: What’s a ‘Network State’ and are there real-life examples? Big Questions
TLDR
- The U.S. Senate passed the housing bill in an 89 to 10 bipartisan vote.
- The bill blocks the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDCs until at least 2030.
- The measure prohibits the Fed from creating a digital dollar directly or through intermediaries.
- Lawmakers included the CBDC ban in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.
- House members signaled they may seek changes before advancing the bill.
The U.S. Senate approved a housing bill that bars the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar. Lawmakers passed the measure in an 89-10 bipartisan vote and attached the CBDC ban to the broader package. However, House lawmakers signaled they may challenge parts of the bill and delay its path forward.
Senate Blocks CBDCs Through 2030 in Housing Package
The Senate inserted language that blocks the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDCs until at least 2030. Lawmakers placed the provision in the final section of the 302-page 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. The text states that the Fed may not create a central bank digital currency directly or indirectly.
The bill also bars the Fed from issuing any digital asset that resembles a central bank digital currency. It prohibits issuance through financial institutions or other intermediaries. As a result, the measure restricts both direct and indirect government-backed digital dollar efforts.
Republican lawmakers have long opposed CBDCs and have pushed to prevent their launch. However, the U.S. government has only studied digital dollar models and has not launched a token. Other jurisdictions, including China, continue to pursue central bank digital currencies.
Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone welcomed the Senate vote. He said, “Financial privacy is a cornerstone of American freedom.” He added that Congress and the public must decide on any authorization of a central bank digital currency.
Carbone also stated that digital innovation should remain private sector-led. He said the Senate reinforced the need to protect individual liberty. His comments followed the overwhelming bipartisan approval in the chamber.
House Review and Political Conditions Create Uncertainty
House lawmakers have indicated they may seek revisions to the Senate’s housing bill. Some members oppose provisions that limit how many homes large investors can own. The bill requires private equity firms and other large buyers to reduce their housing holdings.
The Senate measure targets institutional investors that control large housing inventories. Lawmakers aim to expand home access by capping ownership levels. However, the House may demand changes before advancing the legislation.
President Donald Trump has supported efforts to increase housing availability. He has also backed limits on large investors purchasing single-family homes. This overlap places him in partial agreement with some Democratic lawmakers.
However, Trump recently stated he will not sign legislation without new voter identification requirements. He said Congress must pass a bill requiring proof of citizenship for voters. This condition applies to legislation tied to this year’s midterm elections.
The demand for voter identification legislation adds complexity to the housing bill’s progress. Lawmakers must reconcile differences between the chambers before sending the bill to the president. Meanwhile, the Senate version includes the CBDC ban through 2030 as written.
Separately, Congress continues work on crypto legislation. Lawmakers are also reviewing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The housing bill’s next steps now depend on House consideration and potential revisions.
A new report digs dip into short-term Bitcoin price trajectory, citing the U.S. mid-term elections as a key catalyst that could spark a rally.
Summary
- Bitcoin price could rise after U.S. mid-term elections as political uncertainty fades, Binance Research says.
- Historically, the S&P 500 gained about 19% in the year following mid-terms.
- Bitcoin has also rallied after past mid-term cycles, posting average gains of about 54%.
Bitcoin (BTC) could see a strong move higher after the next U.S. mid-term elections, according to a March 11 report from Binance Research. The firm said market history shows that both stocks and Bitcoin often rally once political uncertainty surrounding the elections fades.
Data cited in the report shows the S&P 500 has gained an average of 19% in the 12 months after mid-term elections. The index has not posted a negative return during that window since 1939.
Bitcoin has shown a similar tendency, though the data set is much shorter. Since the crypto market became more liquid around 2014, the three completed mid-term cycles were followed by strong Bitcoin performance. On average, the asset climbed about 54% over the three years after the election.
Election cycles often bring market swings
According to the report, mid-term election years are usually the most volatile period in the four-year political cycle. Investors often turn cautious as policy direction and economic priorities remain unclear.
Historically, the S&P 500 has recorded average drawdowns of around 16% during mid-term years. In many cases, the market correction happens before the vote, when uncertainty is highest.
Bitcoin has tended to follow a similar pattern but with larger moves. Binance Research said past mid-term years saw average declines of roughly 56% for BTC, reflecting the asset’s higher sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment.
Once election results are known, the environment usually changes. Investors gain more clarity on fiscal policy and regulation, and capital often moves back into risk assets. That shift has helped drive strong rallies in the year following mid-term elections.
Macro risks still shaping the Bitcoin price
While the election cycle offers a longer-term perspective, the report notes that global events are currently driving markets.
Rising geopolitical tensions have added uncertainty across financial markets. Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, have already affected energy prices and investor sentiment.
Oil markets have been highly volatile in recent days, and Bitcoin has moved alongside broader macro assets. According to Binance Research, price action in BTC, crude oil, and U.S. equities has followed similar patterns, although crypto usually shows larger swings.
At the same time, activity from U.S. investors appears to be increasing. Trading linked to spot Bitcoin ETFs has risen over the past week, suggesting renewed interest from traditional market participants.
Even so, ETF volume still represents a relatively small portion of total Bitcoin spot trading. That gap indicates there may still be room for greater institutional participation over time.
For now, the report describes the market as fragile, with macro risks still unresolved. Still, past cycles suggest that periods of uncertainty have often been followed by strong opportunities for long-term investors, particularly once the political cycle moves past the mid-term elections.
The agency issued an advance rulemaking notice and a staff advisory encouraging innovation.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Thursday issued a pair of actions signaling its intent to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for prediction markets, an industry that has exploded in popularity over the past year.
The agency published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) seeking public comment on how existing derivatives law should apply to prediction markets, alongside a staff advisory from the Division of Market Oversight offering guidance to exchanges that list event contracts.
The moves come as the CFTC faces a surge of interest from would-be prediction market operators. Applications for designation as a contract market have more than doubled over the past year, largely from entities looking to run prediction markets exclusively, the agency said.
The CFTC’s regulatory push arrives amid a period of unprecedented growth for the sector. Open interest across crypto prediction markets surpassed $1 billion for the first time in February, fueled by Super Bowl-related activity. Spot volume hit a record $1.4 billion on Super Bowl Sunday alone, with Kalshi generating $800 million and Polymarket about $311 million.
Monthly volumes across on-chain prediction markets jumped to more than $27 billion in February from under $100 million in early 2024.
The industry has also attracted heavyweight backing. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket, while Kalshi raised $300 million, deals that have helped transform prediction markets from a niche crypto experiment into a mainstream trading category.
Fresh Start
The ANPRM effectively opens a new chapter for prediction market regulation. In February 2026, the Commission withdrew a set of proposed rules from 2024 that would have further specified which event contracts are contrary to the public interest, a legal standard that gives the CFTC authority to ban certain types of contracts. The withdrawal cited ongoing state regulatory actions and litigation over the agency’s jurisdiction.
Rather than re-propose those rules, the Commission is now casting a wider net, posing 40 detailed questions to the public on topics ranging from manipulation risks and margin trading to the treatment of blockchain-based prediction markets and the role of inside information.
The staff advisory struck a pro-innovation tone, describing prediction markets as “a proven source of reliable information for news media, sports leagues, financial institutions, and everyday Americans.”
The advisory focused heavily on sports-related event contracts, urging exchanges to engage with professional sports leagues and their integrity units when designing contracts. Staff flagged heightened concerns about manipulation in contracts that settle based on the actions of a single individual, such as a referee or a player, rather than on aggregate outcomes over extended periods of play.
The advisory also reminded exchanges of existing anti-manipulation and insider trading rules, noting that misappropriation of confidential information already constitutes a violation under CFTC regulations.
Key Questions
Among the most consequential issues raised in the ANPRM is whether prediction markets should be allowed to offer margin trading. Currently, event contracts are fully collateralized. The Commission asked for input on how initial margin should be calculated, whether daily variation margin should be required, and what additional disclosures retail customers would need.
The ANPRM also probes the boundaries of the “gaming” category, one of five activities that can trigger a public interest ban on event contracts. The Commission asked whether gaming is synonymous with gambling, whether sports competitions should be treated differently from award shows, and whether the demographics of prediction market participants should factor into its analysis.
On blockchain-based prediction markets, the Commission asked whether existing rules present unique challenges or advantages and which areas would benefit from tailored guidance, a question with direct implications for platforms like Polymarket that operate on decentralized infrastructure.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
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