As the AUD/USD chart indicates, the Australian dollar is showing weakness against the US dollar at the start of the week. Notably, we are seeing a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of an important ascending channel that had been in place since December 2025.

Among the key bearish factors:

→ increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid the United States’ involvement in large-scale military actions against Iran. US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while Tehran has warned of potential attacks on key US and Israeli facilities;

→ a decline in Asian equity markets, which are sensitive to disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East. In turn, the value of the Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports from Australia to China;

→ traders’ expectations ahead of inflation data due to be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

On 24 February, we confirmed the validity of the ascending channel, within which we:
→ identified signs of weakness during the formation of highs A and B;
→ suggested a potential break below the channel median with a move towards the psychological level of 0.7000.

Indeed, the price failed to surpass high B and moved into the lower half of the channel in early March. As shown by the first arrow, on 3 March it briefly dipped below the psychological 0.7000 level before quickly rebounding, signalling strong demand.

However, the underlying weakness near highs A and B persisted. Between 10–12 March, bulls attempted to break through these resistance levels but failed to hold above the new high. From a Smart Money Concept perspective, this resembles a liquidity grab in the buy-side liquidity (BSL) zone — a bearish signal.

In the short term, a rebound from the March low (around 0.6950) is possible. However, when considering a broader outlook, traders should not rule out:
→ the 0.7000 level turning into resistance;
→ further development of a downward trend within an increasingly well-defined descending channel.

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Bitcoin BTC$68,610.53 bulls should be on their toes: A key momentum indicator that has been disturbingly accurate at flagging selloffs since the largest cryptocurrency hit a record high in October has just triggered.

The indicator is the moving average convergence divergence histogram, better known as the MACD. It’s just crossed below zero for the third time, indicating a renewed bearish shift in momentum.

What is MACD anyway?

Before we dive into the market signal, let’s see how the MACD works.

The indicator uses two lines. The first is the MACD line, calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. The gap between the two helps indicate momentum.

The other is the Signal line, which is the nine-day exponential moving average of the MACD line itself.

The really interesting part, though, is the histogram. That plots the difference between the MACD and Signal lines.

When the histogram turns positive, it signals bullish momentum; when it turns negative, as now, it signals bearish momentum. In both cases, the slope’s steepness indicates how strong the momentum is.

The indicator is popular because it cuts through market noise to provide a clear picture of trend strength and changes. And right now, it’s screaming “bearish.”

BTC gets crushed when MACD turns red

Since bitcoin topped out above $126,000 in October, MACD has developed an almost-perfect track record. When it turned bearish, bitcoin crashed hard. When it flipped bullish, there were weak bounces that went nowhere.

The evidence is damning. Bitcoin’s weekslong back-and-forth trading above $100,000 came to an abrupt end after the histogram crossed below zero on Nov. 3. Prices plummeted from around $106,000 to $80,000 by Nov. 21.

A brief bounce followed, as the MACD turned positive. But it was short-lived. Just two months later, on Jan. 20, the MACD flashed bearish again with bitcoin around $90,000. The result was the same as before — a face-ripping decline to nearly $60,000 by Feb. 6, once again followed by a minor bounce, backed by a positive MACD with upside capped at around $75,000.

So far, every bullish MACD cross has produced nothing but disappointing bounces that quickly fade, paving the way for deeper selloffs once the indicator turns red. It’s a strong signal that sellers are firmly in control, capable of crushing any attempts by the bulls to regain momentum.

And now, the indicator is flashing red again. Sure, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But when a signal with such a strong track record is flashing red, traders are better off paying heed than throwing caution to the wind. Bitcoin’s resilience during the war with Iran may be about to crumble.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said Monday he uncovered a coordinated network of accounts on X using exaggerated or fake war and geopolitical posts to lure users into crypto scams.

The investigation identified more than 10 linked X accounts allegedly purchased with follower bases that pushed sensational content and scam links, according to an X thread and screenshots shared by ZachXBT.

The fake accounts used AI to impersonate prominent social media influencers such as Mario Nawfal, flooding X with “doomposts” and driving engagement before promoting fake crypto giveaways and pump-and-dump token schemes. “Onchain evidence suggests the scheme profited six figures,” ZachXBT said, adding that the group has been farming engagement and may be preparing another scam.

The report highlights the persistent problem of fake accounts and bot activity on social media platforms like X, even as the company says it is taking steps to combat such behavior.

Scam mechanics based on viral geopolitical posts

According to ZachXBT, the scheme started with accounts that had existing followers. These accounts repeatedly posted exaggerated war or political content, often sensational or misleading, which quickly went viral and attracted millions of views.

Once attention peaked, the fake accounts pivoted to promote fraudulent token giveaways or scam tokens. One such promotion involved the pump-and-dump crypto scam referred to as Oramama on Feb. 22, ZachXBT noted.

ZachXBT spotted numerous large accounts in the replies and quotes that fell for the engagement bait, only to boost the post’s reach unknowingly.

Social media’s scam problem persists despite platform changes

The revelation comes as social media platforms like X have been trying to clamp down on bots and scam activity.

Last month, X’s product chief Nikita Bier announced enhanced anti‑bot detection and removal measures, along with user flags for AI‑generated content, as part of broader efforts to curb automated spam and misinformation.

Still, the ZachXBT findings expose how quickly coordinated accounts can build engagement and mislead users.

Related: Coinbase-backed CoinDCX founders questioned in fraud case: Report

The investigator suggested that platform manipulation should lead to bans and legal consequences, calling social media users to review recent posts and account details before engaging with any content.

ZachXBT also shared a list of X users he believes to be involved in the scam in case they change usernames or deactivate their accounts.

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