Binance has been left relying on France as its last realistic route to secure a Markets in Crypto-Assets license after its expected authorization bid in Greece reportedly stalled ahead of the European Union’s June 30 deadline.

According to a report published Wednesday by The Big Whale, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde played a key role in blocking Binance’s Greek application despite the exchange having cleared most regulatory requirements.

Sources familiar with the matter told the publication that concerns raised at the political level over stablecoins and Binance’s influence within the European crypto sector ultimately halted the process.

The setback has increased pressure on the world’s largest crypto exchange as MiCA’s transition period approaches its final days. Under the EU’s new regulatory framework, crypto firms must secure authorization from a member state regulator by June 30 to continue serving customers across the bloc through MiCA’s passporting system.

Should Greece fail to approve, Binance would lose access to that route entirely, leaving France as the only remaining jurisdiction considered capable of issuing authorization within the required timeframe, according to The Big Whale.

Discussions between Binance and France’s financial regulator, the AMF, are reportedly continuing, although no formal application has yet been submitted.

France emerges as Binance’s remaining option

Attention has now turned to France after reports surfaced earlier this week that Greek regulators were expected to dismiss Binance’s application. Because MiCA operates under a single-license structure, approval in one member state allows crypto firms to offer services throughout the European Union.

With the Greek pathway reportedly closed, Binance’s ability to maintain uninterrupted access to European customers now depends on securing authorization elsewhere before the deadline.

Responding to reports surrounding the Greek application, Binance reiterated its commitment to the European market. The company said it had adopted what it described as a prudent approach during the MiCA transition and was focused on minimizing disruption for users while providing clarity on any upcoming changes.

The exchange also stated that it had worked alongside regulators for the past 18 months and participated in the authorization process in good faith. According to Binance, its understanding is that Greece’s regulator completed its review and considered the application compliant with MiCA requirements, while the filing was also reviewed at the European Securities and Markets Authority level.

Binance warns of market consequences from delays

Beyond its own application, Binance argued that delays to MiCA authorizations could affect the European crypto market more broadly. According to the company’s statement, prolonged uncertainty could reduce liquidity, limit competition and consumer choice, and encourage some activity to move outside the European Union.

Maintaining that it remains committed to Europe, Binance said it is continuing to pursue what it described as the right path forward under MiCA and plans to provide additional updates before June 30.

The latest challenge adds to a series of licensing hurdles the exchange has faced in several jurisdictions. Earlier this year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas stated that neither Binance nor its local partner, BlockShoals Technologies, possessed the virtual asset service provider license required to conduct certain crypto-related activities in the Philippines.

Despite those regulatory obstacles, Binance has consistently supported MiCA publicly. The company has previously described the framework as a positive step for the industry, arguing that it improves legal certainty, strengthens consumer protections, and creates a more structured environment for crypto businesses operating across Europe.

Global markets slid on Wednesday as uncertainty resurfaced around US-Iran diplomacy and the outlook for inflation. Bitcoin, meanwhile, struggled to reclaim key levels, weighed down by continuing spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in June and signs of softer institutional demand.

At the same time, US Treasury yields remained elevated, limiting risk appetite across equities and crypto. For traders, the near-term question is whether improving geopolitical clarity and easing rates expectations can restart inflows into Bitcoin—or whether current momentum continues to stall.

Key takeaways

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $2.1 billion in net outflows so far in June, according to earlier Cointelegraph coverage linked in the original report.
• Bitcoin has traded at a discount on Coinbase vs. international USDT-based markets for roughly the past five weeks, pointing to weaker US institutional appetite.
• The discount has coincided with persistent caution around Strategy’s STRC preferred equity structure, where dividends depend on fixed issuance mechanics.
• US macro conditions are still hostile for risk assets: inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s near-term cutting path kept yields around 4.16%.

Geopolitics, inflation worries, and why yields matter for Bitcoin

Wednesday’s risk-off move followed President Donald Trump’s comments that a memorandum of understanding with Iran is not yet final. Markets are focused on whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz can stabilize quickly enough to avoid renewed inflation pressure.

US and Iran are expected to formally sign an agreement on Friday, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. Trump said the deal should satisfy markets and suggested oil prices could fall, but he also indicated further military action if Iran does not “behave.”

In energy markets, crude Brent dropped to its lowest level in 100 days, but traders appeared cautious about how long that relief can last. US 5-year Treasury yields were around 4.16%, unchanged from roughly two weeks prior, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut interest rates quickly.

That linkage matters for Bitcoin because higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. When investors expect fewer or later rate cuts, liquidity typically tightens—not just for equities, but also for highly volatile markets like crypto.

Bitcoin’s demand signals: ETF outflows and Coinbase-at-discount dynamics

While Wednesday’s US retail sales data showed 6.9% growth from May 2025, the report’s implication for crypto is indirect: the rise likely reflects higher costs for items such as fuel, which can keep inflation risk alive. At the same time, the first Fed Committee meeting since Chair Kevin Warsh took the role has kept attention on whether rate-cut expectations are truly shifting.

On the price action side, Nasdaq-100 futures traded about 2% below their all-time high, while Bitcoin has failed to hold above $80,000 since mid-May—an environment consistent with reduced conviction rather than a clean breakout.

One key driver highlighted in the underlying reporting is demand from institutions. The spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US have seen $2.1 billion in net outflows in June, according to the Cointelegraph-linked figure in the provided text. Meanwhile, a comparison between Coinbase’s Bitcoin pricing and international exchanges quoted in USDT showed a persistent discount over the past five weeks.

In practical terms, that Coinbase-at-discount behavior suggests capital is finding it easier to buy Bitcoin outside the US-listed venue—or that US-based buyers are temporarily less aggressive. Either way, weak relative demand can make it harder for Bitcoin to sustain rallies, even when broader narratives improve.

Strategy’s STRC weakness revives concerns over preferred dividends

Another element weighing on sentiment is Strategy’s STRC preferred equity structure. The original reporting noted that STRC is marketed as offering an 11.5% yield, but the mechanics of how new shares can be issued limit Strategy’s flexibility.

Specifically, new stock issuance can only occur at a fixed $100 price. The same report points to a looming mismatch between the dividend commitment and available financial capacity: Strategy has to support roughly $142 million in cash dividends each month, while new issuance at a constrained price can pressure existing holders. That has contributed to dilution concerns for MSTR shareholders.

The reporting also cites that Strategy’s USD cash reserves are around $1.1 billion and that the total preferred shares issued by Strategy stand at $15.5 billion. The implication is not that Strategy must sell its Bitcoin immediately, but that the market is questioning leverage and the sustainability of financial optics if capital requirements remain fixed.

Importantly, the underlying text states there is no evidence Strategy will be forced to sell its Bitcoin reserves anytime soon. Still, the STRC price weakness is being treated as a visible signal of investor skepticism about financial leverage—even if the company’s Bitcoin holdings are not expected to be liquidated in the near term.

What to watch as negotiations begin

With an agreement between the US and Iran expected to be signed on Friday and talks set to last 60 days, traders will likely monitor whether geopolitical headlines translate into sustained energy relief or renewed inflation fears. For Bitcoin, investors should also watch whether spot ETF flows stabilize and whether Coinbase’s pricing discount versus international USDT markets narrows—signs that demand is broadening rather than just shifting location.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin remains under pressure from $2.1 billion in ETF outflows in June and an ongoing discount relative to global Bitcoin/USDT pairs.
• Strategy’s STRC stock shows weakness, highlighting growing concerns over monthly dividend obligations and share dilution.

The US stock market traded down on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran was not final. Investors fear that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not clear quickly, which adds further pressure on inflation. Is the stock market and Bitcoin (BTC) at risk?

The US and Iran are expected to formally sign an agreement on Friday, starting a 60-day negotiation period. On Wednesday, Trump said the deal should please the markets and that oil prices might fall. However, the US President threatened further bombings if Iran did not “behave.”

US 5-year Treasury yield vs. crude Brent oil, USD. Source: TradingView

Crude Brent oil fell to its lowest level in 100 days, but traders doubt fuel prices will continue to weigh on markets for long. Yields on US Treasuries remained at 4.16%, flat from two weeks prior. Investors are less confident in the US Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates soon, thereby demanding higher returns on government bonds.

Impact of higher inflation amid weak institutional Bitcoin demand

US retail sales data released on Wednesday showed 6.9% growth from May 2025, but the rise likely reflects higher costs of goods such as fuel. In parallel, Wednesday marked the first Fed Committee meeting by Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision to hold interest rates steady was largely expected, but investors will try to discern Warsh’s views and personal credibility.

Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index traded 2% below its all-time high, while Bitcoin has failed to hold above $80,000 since mid-May. Bitcoin traders’ skepticism partly stems from a lack of inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the absence of a Coinbase premium relative to international exchanges, signaling weak demand from institutional investors.

Coinbase Bitcoin USD vs. international USDT prices. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph

Coinbase Bitcoin price in USD has traded at a discount versus international exchanges based in USDT for the past five weeks. Meanwhile, the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.1 billion in net outflows so far in June. The recent weakness in the Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US) has further fueled the negative sentiment.

Related: Bitcoin tops $67K following US-Iran peace deal: Is it a bull trap?

Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US). Source: TradingView

STRC offers holders an 11.5% yield, but new stock issuance can only happen at the fixed $100 price. Consequently, Strategy has less room to pay $142 million in cash dividends each month, forcing dilution of MSTR holders by issuing more shares or reducing its USD cash reserves, which are currently at $1.1 billion. The total preferred shares issued by Strategy stand at $15.5 billion.

There is no evidence that Strategy will be forced to sell any of its Bitcoin reserves anytime soon, but weakness in the STRC price reflects low confidence in the company’s financial leverage. Even if Bitcoin institutional inflows resume, investors fear that the deal between the US and Iran might not go through, hence a sustainable rally to $80,000 could take longer.

Instead of selling everything, each validator would choose a set of subnets to support, much like picking holdings for a fund. The yield that would have been sold is reinvested into the chosen subnets, held as a basket that compounds over time, and staked back to the validator. Stakers still get their yield and can cash out to TAO whenever they want.

Such a mechanism stops the constant selling pressure and turns it into net buying that supports subnet prices.

Validators turn from passive yield pipes into active curators, since subnets they back attract fresh capital, while those they judge to be bad actors get starved of it.

The proposal is a code submission on Bittensor’s GitHub as of Wednesday, aimed at a test network rather than the main one.

Meanwhile, an early automated review flagged two serious issues, including an upgrade step that could choke on large amounts of data and a payout path that could shortchange stakers when a subnet shuts down. The author said in a GitHub response that those issues are fixed, with more cleanup listed before any mainnet release.

Bittensor’s token, TAO, has fallen 28% over the last 12 months, while bitcoin has fallen 38% over the same period. The token’s staking yield currently sits around 17% if users hold TAO for a year.

US gaming and tribal-related organizations, along with labor groups, are urging lawmakers to tighten federal rules around crypto-linked prediction markets. In a letter reported by Semafor, they ask the Senate to include language in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act that would “explicitly prohibit event contracts tied to sports and casino-style gaming.”

The groups’ core argument is jurisdictional and policy-driven: they contend that sports betting belongs under state and tribal regulatory frameworks, not under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Their request comes as the CFTC, under Chair Michael Selig, has asserted “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets.

Key takeaways

• Sports and casino-related prediction market contracts are the focus of a new push to bar them under the CLARITY Act.
• Gaming and tribal organizations say prediction markets have expanded gambling “without voter approval or legislative authorization” over the past 18 months.
• The letter argues the CFTC was not built to regulate sports wagering, pointing to existing state and tribal oversight.
• CLARITY is positioned to shift some digital-asset enforcement authority from the SEC to the CFTC, but it still faces timeline and political hurdles.
• Legal disputes over whether prediction-market event contracts are regulated as “swaps” could ultimately escalate to the US Supreme Court.

Gaming industry groups target CLARITY’s wording on prediction markets

According to the Semafor report, organizations including the Indian Gaming Association and the American Gaming Association have coordinated their opposition to using crypto legislation to enable sports-betting-style prediction products. They want Congress, while the CLARITY Act is under Senate consideration, to “affirm” that sports betting is outside the CFTC’s remit and therefore cannot be offered through prediction market platforms.

In the letter, the groups argue that prediction markets have contributed to what they describe as the “largest expansion of gambling in US history” during the previous 18 months, and that this growth occurred without what they call democratic authorization. Their emphasis is not only on consumer protection, but also on whether federal regulators should be allowed to reshape gambling rules nationally.

CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” claim collides with state regulatory systems

The lobbying effort arrives amid an ongoing regulatory clash. Semafor notes that the CFTC, led by Chair Michael Selig, has claimed exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. Selig has also supported enforcement actions and legal strategies aimed at platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, according to earlier coverage by Cointelegraph regarding the CFTC’s stance in lawsuits brought by state-level gaming authorities. (Earlier reporting: CFTC lawsuit: Minnesota prediction markets ban.)

The letter’s counterpoint is straightforward: the CFTC, the groups say, was created for commodities and derivatives—not gambling and sports wagering. They also argue the agency lacks the expertise and operational infrastructure to oversee nationwide sports betting when state and tribal regulators already provide the principal regulatory mechanisms.

While the groups frame their concern as a mismatch of regulatory roles, the policy conflict is also structural. If Congress enshrines an explicit prohibition tied to sports and casino-style event contracts, it could narrow the practical scope of what platforms and litigants treat as CFTC-governed “swaps” or derivatives. Conversely, if such language does not survive, the CFTC’s jurisdictional posture could remain a centerpiece of future enforcement.

Tax-dollar losses become a central talking point

The American Gaming Association, also cited in the Semafor report, reportedly argues that states have lost revenue since sports event contracts began appearing on prediction market platforms. Per the AGA’s figures, state gaming authorities have lost about $1.08 billion in tax dollars “since prediction markets began offering sports event contracts” as of Wednesday, according to the organization’s reported update.

For policymakers, this is more than a political talking point. Revenue and tax streams are often central to how states justify their gambling regimes, and the claim—if accepted by lawmakers—adds weight to the argument that prediction markets function as a substitute for regulated wagering channels.

That said, the dispute remains largely about classification and regulator authority rather than only market growth. The jurisdictional fight will determine whether enforcement actions focus on CFTC-style derivative frameworks or instead defer to gambling laws administered by states and tribes.

What CLARITY could change—and why timing matters

Some lawmakers expect the CLARITY Act to clear Congress out of the Senate by August. Semafor reports that the bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025, but it faced delays tied to concerns including stablecoin yield, ethics, and tokenized equities.

CLARITY’s broader purpose is to transfer some regulatory and enforcement authority for digital assets from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the CFTC. In that context, the letter’s demand for a carveout is significant: it aims to prevent the CFTC from regulating sports and casino-style event contracts even if Congress expands the agency’s general role over digital-asset markets.

If included, the language the groups seek could reshape the compliance landscape for prediction market platforms that offer sports-related contracts. It would also potentially affect how operators design product structures—whether they try to avoid “event contracts” tied to sports wagering or whether they challenge the applicability of any prohibition.

Regulator jurisdiction may become a Supreme Court question

Legal uncertainty already looms over prediction markets, and the letter’s pushback reflects that the regulatory fight is not settled. Some experts and advocates anticipate that if CFTC leadership—Selig in particular—continues to challenge state-level crackdowns through courts, the dispute could ultimately reach the US Supreme Court.

Cointelegraph previously discussed scenarios in which the federal-state conflict might escalate, including the possibility that appeals over how such event contracts should be classified could culminate in the nation’s highest court. (Earlier coverage: CFTC Michael Selig defending prediction markets and prediction markets legal fight Supreme Court Kalshi appeal.)

The constitutional backdrop is Murphy v. NCAA (2018), in which the Supreme Court gave states the authority to regulate sports gambling. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC have argued in the course of related litigation that event contracts offered through prediction market platforms should be treated as “swaps” subject to the CFTC’s jurisdiction—rather than as gambling regulated primarily under state law.

That tension—federal derivatives classification versus state gambling authority—could become the central question for courts. Meanwhile, legislation like CLARITY could either reduce the room for interpretation by carving out sports and casino-style contracts or, if it doesn’t, leave courts to decide how far the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” claim extends.

For investors, platform operators, and users, the immediate watch item is whether the Senate version of CLARITY incorporates the requested sports- and casino-style prohibition—and, separately, whether ongoing cases continue to climb the appellate ladder toward the Supreme Court as regulators keep insisting on competing jurisdictional theories.