Bitcoin’s “cycle peak buyers”—the investors who accumulated near the latter stages of the last bull run—may be nearing the point where their selling pressure fades, according to new on-chain analysis shared by Glassnode researcher Cryptovizart. The implication is straightforward: if realized losses among one-to-two-year holders keep rolling over, it can mark an early phase of relief from bear-market distribution.

The same report also points to a familiar near-term battleground for price action. Glassnode highlights short-term holders’ aggregate cost basis around $69,000, noting that this level overlaps with old 2021 all-time highs—often a zone where markets either break out decisively or become stuck in a wider range.

Key takeaways

• Glassnode’s realized-loss metric for 1–2 year holders is used as a historical bear-market “endgame” signal.
• Cryptovizart’s chart suggests realized losses recently passed $75 million before beginning a reversal.
• The next potential supply/resistance area centers on $69,000, where short-term holders’ cost basis aligns with former 2021 highs.
• Both signals emphasize shift in cohort behavior—not just price—to gauge whether the market is transitioning out of a bottoming phase.

Why realized losses among 1–2 year holders matter

Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at Glassnode, laid out the framework in a post on X on Friday. In the analyst’s view, one of the most reliable early checks for whether a bear market has truly started to end is the Realized Loss volume (in USD) by 1–2 year holders.

In on-chain terms, the metric tracks the value of Bitcoin being moved at a loss by coins that have been held for roughly one to two years. When that loss realization rises during a downturn, it often reflects holders giving up after prolonged underperformance. When it starts to cool, it can indicate that the “heaviest distribution” is losing momentum.

According to the post, coins that last transacted at a loss did so during a window spanning July 2024 to July 2025. Over that interval, BTC/USD rose from roughly $62,800 to around $107,000, meaning that a large portion of investors who bought during the latter portion of the bull market are currently underwater on their allocation.

“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.”

Cryptovizart argues that bear markets have historically lacked durable footing until this specific group begins to exhaust its sell pressure—when realized losses stop climbing and the trend begins to reverse.

The $75 million realized-loss rollover signal

The key visual in the analysis is a spike in realized losses measured on a 30-day moving basis. Cryptovizart notes that realized losses recently climbed to a level above $75 million before the indicator started turning downward.

In the analyst’s framework, the most watchable part isn’t just whether realized losses are elevated—it’s whether the 30D moving average of realized loss begins to cool and roll over. That change, Cryptovizart said, has often appeared among the clearest early signs that the market is moving beyond the phase of concentrated selling.

“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.”

For traders and investors, the practical value of this type of signal is that it ties market stress to behavior on-chain. Rather than relying purely on speculative narratives around price, it focuses on whether holders most likely to capitulate are actually doing so—or whether that pressure is beginning to fade.

From on-chain loss exhaustion to the $69,000 price battleground

Realized losses are only one piece of the puzzle for bottom-timing. Glassnode’s ongoing work also emphasizes the role of cost basis—particularly for speculators who bought closer to the current price regime.

In its newsletter edition The Week Onchain, Glassnode pointed to Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as the next hurdle the market may need to clear for momentum to improve. In the report, that reference level is around $69,000.

Notably, Glassnode says that this cost basis zone also overlaps with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market. From an order-flow perspective, that overlap matters because it combines two forces that can amplify short-term reactions: sellers who bought at that level (or near it) may be more inclined to exit once price returns, while buyers trying to reclaim prior “breakout” levels may need to overcome earlier supply.

“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole.”

Glassnode also framed the scenario in terms of what happens immediately after price approaches the region: a convincing reclaim could open the door for more sustained recovery, while rejection would suggest the market is still negotiating its range rather than transitioning into a new phase.

“A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”

What to watch next as these signals converge

The most important development implied by Glassnode’s research is the alignment of two different on-chain narratives: (1) realized loss pressure from 1–2 year holders appears to be rolling over, and (2) the market is approaching a widely watched cost-basis resistance zone near $69,000. If realized losses continue to drift lower while price tests that cost-basis level, bulls will likely look for a sustained reclaim rather than a short-lived bounce; if realized losses stop improving or cost-basis resistance holds, the probability of prolonged consolidation increases.

Readers should watch whether the 30-day realized-loss trend continues to cool and whether BTC can hold above or reject the $69,000 region as the next clear confirmation point for market participants.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified a possible bottoming structure on Bitcoin’s chart after the cryptocurrency rebounded from its late-June lows. Brandt stressed that traders still lack enough evidence to confirm the setup.

Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on July 16 after failing to hold above $65,000. It has recovered from below $58,000, but questions remain over whether spot demand can support a broader reversal.

Brandt flags an unconventional Bitcoin bottom pattern

In aJuly 16 post on X, Brandt said Bitcoin’s chart could be developing an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom. He described the structure as “VERY VERY UNCONVENTIONAL” and added, “We do NOT know yet.” He presented the formation as an early possibility rather than a confirmed signal.

Vlad.fun, a memecoin launchpad built on Robinhood Chain, has suspended operations after reporting what it called a “serious internal integrity issue” involving members of its team.

The project said it took the platform offline while it investigates the matter and consults legal counsel.

The team has not disclosed the nature of the alleged conduct or identified anyone involved. In its official statement on X, Vlad.fun said it would take appropriate action based on the findings of its investigation.

Vlad.fun takes its platform offline

Vlad.fun said it discovered the issue around the platform’s launch and that members of its team were involved. The project said it would not “gloss over it” and paused operations while reviewing what happened. It has not said whether user funds, token contracts or other parts of the platform were affected.

Hours before announcing the suspension, the project also warned users that a token carrying the Vlad.fun name and appearing on its leaderboard was not official. The team reminded traders through its official X account that its launchpad is permissionless and allows anyone to create tokens. Vlad.fun has not stated whether the token warning and internal investigation are connected.

Robinhood Chain’s memecoin boom forms the backdrop

Robinhood launched its public blockchain mainnet on July 1 as an Ethereum Layer 2 built with Arbitrum technology. As previously reported by crypto.news, Robinhood designed the network to support tokenized real-world assets, decentralized finance applications and around-the-clock trading of stock tokens.

However, memecoin trading quickly became a major source of activity. A recent crypto.news analysis found that Robinhood Chain processed about $570 million in launch-week trading volume against roughly $21.68 million in liquidity, with speculative memecoin activity driving much of the turnover.

Galaxy Digital also reported that memecoins became the network’s most active early use case. Trading volume surged above $560 million on July 8 as interest in tokens including CASHCAT drew more users and liquidity to the new network.

Launchpad disruptions draw closer attention

Vlad.fun is not the first Robinhood Chain launchpad to experience an operational disruption during the network’s early growth. As previously reported, NOXA went offline after becoming a major venue for token launches on Robinhood Chain. Its associated tokens continued trading onchain while its website remained unavailable.

The circumstances are different. NOXA attributed its outage to a Cloudflare problem, while Vlad.fun has cited an internal integrity matter involving team members and said it is consulting lawyers. There is currently no public evidence connecting the two events.

Investigation leaves key questions unanswered

Vlad.fun has not provided a timeline for completing its investigation or restoring the platform. It has also not disclosed whether the alleged issue involved token launches, team wallets, trading activity, platform access or another part of its operations.

For now, the project’s statement remains the main source of information about the shutdown. Users are awaiting more details about the scope of the investigation and any legal action that could follow. The suspension comes as Robinhood Chain continues its rapid expansion, with memecoin trading playing a large role in the network’s early activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) “cycle peak buyers” could already be pointing the way to the next bear-market bottom.

Key points:

• Bitcoin hodlers who bought BTC one to two years ago are cooling selling pressure.
• The cohort’s realized losses have led to market bottoms once their uptrend reverses, Glassnode data shows.
• Speculators’ cost basis reinforces the next BTC price battleground at $69,000.

Glassnode: Bitcoin realized loss reversal “worth watching closely”

In an X post on Friday, Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, showed a classic bottom signal potentially repeating.

The latest in a series of such signals, the latest puts buyers who bought BTC in the latter part of the bull market in focus.

“One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” Cryptovizart wrote.

Here, coins moving onchain at a loss last did so between July 2024 and July 2025. During that time, BTC/USD increased from around $62,800 to $107,000, placing the majority of investors underwater on their allocation.

“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization,” the post continues.

“Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.”

Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average). Source: Cryptovizart/X

An accompanying chart shows a spike in realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis, with the tally recently passing $75 million before beginning a reversal. For Cryptovizart, that feature is key.

“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,” they added.

“Worth watching closely.”

Focus shifts to $69,000 BTC price showdown

Hodler realized losses are not the only onchain metric on the radar when it comes to timing the next macro BTC price floor. 

Related: Bitcoin gets new $80K August target: Watch these BTC price levels next

As Cointelegraph reported, stochastic relative strength index (RSI) values on two-month time frames are creating classic market reversal conditions.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, Glassnode meanwhile flagged Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as bulls’ next resistance hurdle.

At around $69,000, the cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) also coincides with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.

“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole,” it read.

“A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”

BTC/USD chart with cost-basis levels (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

A Bitcoin wallet that had remained inactive for more than eight years has transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million, reviving another long-dormant holding as traders continue tracking large onchain movements.

According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, citing Arkham data, the wallet identified as “138EM…ReyiT” moved the entire 5,908 BTC balance to a new address at 7:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The coins remain in the recipient wallet, with no signs that they have been sent to a cryptocurrency exchange.

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The U.S. Senate has unanimously approved a nonbinding resolution opposing any federal clemency for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. 

Senators agreed to the measure by unanimous consent on July 15, meaning no senator objected when it was brought before the chamber.

The resolution states that Bankman-Fried should “under no circumstances” receive executive clemency, including a presidential pardon or sentence commutation. The Senate measure does not limit the president’s constitutional pardon power, but it places the chamber on record against clemency for the former FTX chief.

Senate backs bipartisan resolution without objection

The Senate approved S.Res.772, according to the U.S. Senate Daily Press. The measure also states that denying clemency would support the rule of law and the integrity of the U.S. financial system.

Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ruben Gallego introduced the resolution on June 17. Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming, and Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona, serve on the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee. When introducing the measure, Lummis said Bankman-Fried “had his day in court,” while Gallego called for him to remain imprisoned.

Bankman-Fried continues to pursue a pardon

The Senate action follows Bankman-Fried’s request for presidential clemency. As previously reported by crypto.news, the former FTX chief submitted a pardon application in June while continuing efforts to challenge his conviction and 25-year prison sentence.

His legal options narrowed days later when an appeals court upheld his conviction. As reported by crypto.news, a three-judge panel rejected arguments that the trial court had wrongly limited evidence that Bankman-Fried wanted to present in his defense. The ruling left his conviction and sentence in place, though routes for further review remain available.

FTX collapse remains central to Senate opposition

A federal jury convicted Bankman-Fried in November 2023 on seven fraud and conspiracy charges linked to the collapse of FTX. Prosecutors accused him of moving billions of dollars in customer funds from the exchange to Alameda Research and using the money for investments, political donations and other spending.

A judge sentenced him to 25 years in prison in March 2024. Bankman-Fried has continued to dispute parts of the government’s case and has sought legal and political routes to reduce or overturn his punishment. Federal prison records cited in recent reporting indicate that his projected release date falls in 2044.

Trump’s earlier crypto pardons shape the backdrop

The resolution arrives after President Donald Trump granted clemency to other figures linked to the crypto industry. Trump pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht in January 2025 and later pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in October 2025.

Bankman-Fried has not received support from the White House. As previously reported, Trump said in January that he did not plan to pardon the FTX founder. A White House spokesperson later referred reporters back to those remarks after Bankman-Fried filed his formal application.

The Senate resolution remains nonbinding and cannot block a president from granting clemency. However, its unanimous passage shows that no senator present objected to formally opposing a pardon or commutation for Bankman-Fried.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to recover moderately following the recent weakening of the US dollar. European currencies have been supported by expectations that US inflationary pressures will continue to ease after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, reinforcing market hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. However, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited amid persistent geopolitical tensions. The United States continues to carry out strikes against targets in Iran, supporting demand for defensive assets and periodically boosting the US dollar.

Today, traders will closely monitor a series of important economic releases from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States, which could determine the next direction for the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to develop after a bullish engulfing reversal pattern while attempting to establish itself above the key resistance level at 1.1460. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the 1.1540–1.1580 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a decisive move below 1.1370.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• 11:40 (GMT+3): Spain 10-year government bond auction;
• 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Retail Sales;
• 15:30 (GMT+3): US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is recovering more strongly than EUR/USD. Buyers have managed to establish the pair above the important 1.3500 resistance level, and positive UK macroeconomic data could pave the way for a further advance towards the 1.3610–1.3680 region. At the same time, after such a rapid rally, a corrective pullback could see the pair retest the 1.3440–1.3480 area, this time as support.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
• 14:00 (GMT+3): NIESR Monthly UK GDP Tracker;
• 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.

Overall, European currencies retain the potential to extend their recovery as markets continue to price in a more accommodative Federal Reserve. However, today’s economic releases from the UK, the eurozone, and the US could significantly reshape market sentiment. If US data once again disappoint expectations, EUR/USD and GBP/USD may receive additional support. Conversely, stronger-than-expected US figures could revive demand for the dollar and limit further gains in European currencies.

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