Crypto fund flows are becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the US interest-rate outlook, with CoinShares arguing that Federal Reserve policy remains a key barrier to Bitcoin (BTC) breaking above $80,000 despite continued investor demand for crypto.

In his latest market update, CoinShares head of research James Butterfil argued that “Bitcoin is trading like gold again, but the Fed still sets the ceiling” at around $80,000.

That sensitivity was evident after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Warsh said progress on inflation had been modest and that price pressures were not easing quickly enough to give the central bank’s policy makers the confidence inflation was returning to its 2% target. Roughly $100 million exited digital asset investment products immediately after the speech, as markets sharply increased the probability of a September rate hike.

Flows reversed over the following week, reaching $1 billion by Sept. 4. The turnaround coincided with comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who pointed to recent signs of “disinflation” and said he was inclined to keep rates steady in September if upcoming inflation data showed further progress.

“Investors are not exiting the asset class,” Butterfill wrote. “They are trading the rate path.”

As of Monday, Fed Funds futures prices implied a roughly 60% chance of a rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to CME Group.

Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis-point rate hike on Sept. 16. Source: CME Group

The movements suggest that Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets remain highly sensitive to shifts in liquidity and monetary policy. Easier financial conditions have historically supported crypto and other risk assets.

Related: Crypto Biz: AI took a back seat when Bitcoin started climbing

Treasury buybacks add to liquidity backdrop

CoinShares’ assessment comes against the backdrop of a strong rebound in Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market last month, when the US Treasury announced plans to double certain long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Bitcoin climbed from the low $60,000s to above $80,000 during the month. 

The expanded buyback program is expected to run from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4.

“Around the Treasury announcement we also saw equity sell-offs and shifts across the yield curve, layered on top of the ongoing noise from the Iran war — oil and equities swinging depending on whether or not people are feeling optimistic about diplomacy on any given day,” wrote 21shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder in her Substack newsletter last week.

“Taken together, these factors suggest to me that the current Bitcoin rally may have less to do with crypto-specific catalysts and more to do with growing interest in de-risking exposure to the US specifically,” she added.

The move reinforced the market’s focus on liquidity conditions and prompted Standard Chartered to forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of the year.

Related: Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report

Flare has recorded a roughly 34% increase in staked FLR since July, taking the total to 21.5 billion tokens as its revised economic model cuts inflation and ties more network activity to token burns and protocol revenue.

Flare staking has increased to 21.5 billion FLR

DefiLlama Research reported on Sept. 4 that Flare’s tokenomics changes are producing measurable onchain results four months after the network approved FIP.16.

Staked FLR rose from approximately 16 billion in July to 21.5 billion, an increase of about 34%. The portion of all staked or delegated FLR held in staking climbed from roughly 32% in April to 46% by late August, with much of the increase occurring within weeks of the July 14 network upgrade.

Under FIP.16, FLR locked on Flare’s P-chain carries five times the signing weight of wrapped FLR delegated on its C-chain. Delegated tokens remain liquid and can be withdrawn at any time, while P-chain staking requires holders to lock their capital with a validator.

Signing weight determines how much influence infrastructure providers have when producing blocks and operating Flare’s native data systems. Providers run the Flare Time Series Oracle, which supplies price feeds, and the Flare Data Connector, which verifies information from other blockchains and Web2 services.

Before FIP.16, different Flare protocols calculated voting weight in different ways. The revised system applies one calculation across FTSO anchor feeds, FDC, and block-latency feeds, with locked stake receiving the fivefold weighting.

Flare’s official governance proposal said the change was designed to put more influence behind committed capital and make the network’s core services equally costly to attack.

At the same time, the July upgrade raised the maximum stake per validator from 200 million to 300 million FLR. It also introduced a network-wide minimum delegation fee of 20%, replacing the previous minimum of zero.

Flare said the fee floor should prevent providers from competing through unsustainably low charges. Infrastructure providers must operate validators, collect data, maintain independent systems, and participate in governance, according to the proposal.

Flare tokenomics changes cut inflation and raise burns

Annual FLR inflation fell from 5% to 3% on May 14, cutting the headline rate by 40%. The annual issuance ceiling also declined from 5 billion to 3 billion FLR.

With an inflatable supply of about 87 billion tokens, the 3% rate produces a gross yearly issuance of roughly 2.6 billion FLR, according to DefiLlama Research. Actual issuance may decrease over time because FIP.16 also changed, which balances count toward the calculation.

Permanently burned FLR, tokens held by the Flare Income Reinvestment Entity, and unearned rewards placed in certain penalty pools are excluded from the inflation base. As those balances increase, the amount subject to the 3% calculation becomes smaller.

Transaction burns accelerated after Flare implemented its Granite upgrade on July 14. Official network release notes show that the minimum C-chain base fee increased from 25 gwei to 500 gwei.

All FLR paid as base transaction fees are permanently destroyed. Flare had burned 15.6 million FLR through transaction fees in 2026 by the time DefiLlama published its report, with more than 40% of the total burned following the July upgrade.

Consequently, the current burn pace sits at more than 10 times its pre-upgrade baseline. Usage determines the amount destroyed because every transaction removes FLR without requiring a new vote or a treasury decision.

Higher gas settings have not made simple transfers expensive in dollar terms. DefiLlama estimated that a basic transfer costs around 0.064 FLR, although transactions involving smart contracts may consume more gas.

Activity feeding the burn mechanism has also expanded through Flare’s FAssets system. In May, an FAssets v1.3 upgrade allowed users to mint FXRP from centralized exchanges such as Binance and Kraken through an XRP Ledger destination tag. FLR rose 14% on the day the upgrade went live, crypto.news reported at the time.

FIRE has started collecting network revenue

FIP.16 created FIRE as a governed entity responsible for receiving revenue generated by Flare’s protocols. Its primary mandate permits the entity to reduce FLR supply through token burns and open-market purchases.

Secondary uses include supporting asset issuers, application yields, liquidity programs and the Flare Foundation’s network operations. Flare initially administers the entity through its foundation.

Four income sources are already active. FIRE receives all FAssets minting fees, 90% of FDC request fees, 10% of FAssets redemption fees, and FLR paid for FXRP destination-tag registrations.

Since collections began in May, FIRE has received assets worth $31,438, according to the DefiLlama report. FAssets minting provided $18,248 across 7,708 mints, making it the largest source.

FDC request fees contributed another $12,676 after collections from that service began on Aug. 18. Destination-tag registrations added $505, while FAssets redemption fees supplied $9.

Two sources pay FIRE in FLR, and two pay in FXRP. As a result, the pool’s reported dollar value changes with token prices as well as the volume of protocol activity.

FDC activity supports several services behind those revenue streams. Flare uses the connector to verify payments and events outside its network, including XRP Ledger transactions involved in creating FXRP.

A July update simplified FXRP access by allowing users to mint the asset and enter selected vaults with one XRP Ledger signature. At the time, FXRP deployed in DeFi had increased from 82 million in February to 144 million, while users had created nearly 24,000 Flare Smart Accounts.

FIRE’s current receipts remain small compared with approximately 2.6 billion FLR in estimated gross annual issuance. Flare’s model therefore still relies mainly on reduced inflation and transaction burns rather than on enough protocol income to offset token creation.

Planned income from Flare Smart Accounts, Confidential Compute, and protocol-level maximal extractable value has yet to enter FIRE. Flare said its MEV system would capture value from permitted activities such as liquidations, atomic arbitrage, cross-chain arbitrage, and just-in-time liquidity.

According to Flare’s April explanation of FIP.16, its DeFi ecosystem processed more than 660,000 transactions involving cyclic-arbitrage structures and over 1,000 liquidation events during the first quarter of 2026. The company said the amount that FIRE could collect from MEV would depend on the volume and type of DeFi transactions processed by the network.

FXRP activity connects Flare with U.S.-regulated RLUSD

FAssets give tokens from networks without smart-contract support a usable form on Flare. FXRP represents XRP within that system, allowing holders to place the asset in lending markets, liquidity pools, vaults, and other decentralized applications.

Flare said in April that more than 150 million FXRP was in circulation, with about 85% deployed across DeFi. At that point, the network had more than $160 million in total value locked under DefiLlama’s standard calculation and over 880,000 active addresses.

Part of that activity now reaches Ethereum. In August, FXRP received approval as collateral in Sentora’s RLUSD Main vault on Morpho, allowing holders to borrow Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin without selling their XRP exposure.

The RLUSD lending market provides a relevant U.S. connection because Ripple received approval for the stablecoin from the New York Department of Financial Services in December 2024. Sentora reviewed FXRP’s liquidity, price behavior, oracle design and liquidation mechanics before accepting it as collateral.

Morpho uses isolated lending markets, limiting problems with one collateral asset to its specific pool rather than exposing every market in the protocol. Borrowers must deposit more FXRP than the value of RLUSD they receive, and liquidations depend on enough FXRP liquidity being available to repay lenders.

FIRE may move to joint community governance after its first year. Initiating the change requires support from holders representing at least 50% of Flare’s total inflatable FLR supply, after which the network would elect four representatives from infrastructure providers operating across Flare and Songbird.

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French Bitcoin treasury company Capital B has acquired 376 Bitcoin (BTC) for 25.3 million euros ($29.5 million), bringing its total holdings to 3,521 BTC.

The purchase was funded after Capital B completed roughly 30.1 million euros ($35 million) in capital raises, including a private placement backed by investors Adam Back and TOBAM, according to a Monday announcement.

The company bought the Bitcoin at an average price of 67,182 euros apiece, with Swissquote Bank Europe executing the purchase and Taurus providing custody.

Capital B has spent a total of 309.4 million euros acquiring its Bitcoin treasury, at an average cost of 87,878 euros per BTC. The purchase moved the company to 25th among publicly traded companies by Bitcoin holdings, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.

The latest acquisition was Capital B’s largest since September 2025, when it purchased 551 BTC for 54.7 million euros. The company also holds 61 BTC for operational purposes, which it keeps separate from its treasury reserve and excludes from its Bitcoin-related performance metrics.

Related: Satoshi-era Bitcoin wakes after 16 years of dormancy as 600 BTC moves

Top BTC treasury firms continue accumulating

While companies including K Wave Media and Sequans Communications have moved to unwind their Bitcoin treasuries, others are continuing to accumulate.

Japan-based Metaplanet acquired 2,823 BTC during the second quarter for about $222 million, bringing its holdings to 43,000 BTC. The company paid an average of roughly $78,850 per Bitcoin during the quarter and now ranks as the third-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder, behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Twenty One Capital, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.

In August, Sweden-based H100 Group more than tripled its Bitcoin holdings after acquiring Norwegian companies holding 2,455 BTC. The all-share deal lifted H100’s treasury to 3,506 BTC, making it Europe’s second-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder at the time. Capital B’s latest purchase puts it 15 BTC ahead of H100, though both remain behind Germany’s Bitcoin Group SE with 3,605 BTC.

Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, also resumed buying in August after a two-month pause, acquiring 4,603 BTC for $370 million. The purchase brought its holdings to 845,050 BTC, acquired for a combined $63.3 billion.

Top 30 Bitcoin treasury companies. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Magazine: ‘White hats’ take 4000 BTC from Liquid, ETFs see best inflows of 2026: Hodler’s Digest

As Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate, investors are increasingly concerned about short-term market risks, and more and more BTC holders are beginning to explore cloud mining and other digital asset methods to generate daily income of up to $2,700.

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As of Sep. 7, 2026, Bitcoin has recently staged a strong rebound, moving back above the $80,000 level and briefly breaking through $81,000. The rise was mainly driven by continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, recovering institutional demand, and improving market sentiment.

The funding picture has also remained strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $987 million in net inflows for the week ending Sep. 4, maintaining net inflows for three consecutive weeks and indicating that institutional investors’ demand for Bitcoin allocation is continuing to recover.

Entering September, market attention will continue to focus on ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and overall market liquidity. If continued ETF inflows push BTC through key resistance levels, Bitcoin’s upside potential could expand further, although short-term performance may still be affected by the macroeconomic environment and market volatility.

As the BTC bull market approaches, UE Crypto has entered an unprecedented opportunity

The recent recovery in the cryptocurrency market has attracted widespread attention, with many investors interpreting this phenomenon as a response to the current economic uncertainty. However, for professionals in the blockchain industry, this round of market volatility has created unique opportunities.

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