Bitcoin has bounced hard after the liquidation washout in February and is trying to rebuild a short-term uptrend. The asset is now pushing into a heavy resistance band where the last breakdown started, so this move looks more like a recovery leg inside a broader corrective structure than a clean trend reversal.

The key question is whether buyers can turn this squeeze into sustained demand or if it stalls where trapped holders are waiting to sell.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has rallied from the major demand area around $60,000 toward the $72,000 to $75,000 resistance zone. It lines up with the lower part of the previous distribution range and sits just below the declining 100-day moving average, which still caps the medium term trend to the downside.

The price has also climbed back to the upper band of the falling channel that has guided the downtrend since late last year, so this area is where analysts usually ask if the move is just a relief rally or the start of a larger base. A daily close above this resistance cluster and a clean breakout of the channel would be the first real signal that sellers are losing control, and that a new bullish market is in the making.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the drop from early February has turned into a broad consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle that was broken upward in the past few days. The price squeezed out of the contracting range and ran straight into the upper green zone, where it is now moving sideways under roughly $73,000 to $75,000.

The 4-hour RSI is in the strong region and has reached the overbought zone after a sharp vertical leg, which often leads to either a pause or a short-term pullback before any further push higher.

Yet, as long as Bitcoin holds above the broken triangle and the bullish imbalances formed around $70,000, the path of least resistance stays toward a retest of the upper resistance, but a failure back inside the old range would warn that the breakout was mainly a squeeze, and that more downside is probable.

Sentiment Analysis

Bitcoin funding rates across futures exchanges flipped deeply negative during the recent consolidation after the crash, and have stayed mostly below or around zero even while the price bounced. This indicates that many traders are paying to hold short positions into the lows and are now being forced to cover as the market moves against them, which fits the idea of a squeeze-driven rebound rather than a pure fresh spot demand.

The fact that funding is only slowly creeping back toward neutral shows that there is still caution and even residual bearish positioning in the derivatives market.

If this rally continues while funding remains modest, it suggests the move is being supported by real buying and unwinding of crowded shorts, but if funding spikes positive quickly near resistance levels, it would signal that late longs are chasing and that the risk of another shakeout is rising.

The conclusion was quite bullish, indicating that XRP could be on its way to a massive price reversal soon.

The broader scale shows that Ripple’s cross-border token has been quite volatile ever since the current cycle began after the US presidential elections in late 2024. At the time, it traded at around $0.60, but exploded to match its 2018 all-time high by January 2025 and eventually broke it in July, setting a new one at $3.65.

The bears took control in the following months, and XRP plunged below $3.00 and $2.00 by the end of the year. After a brief surge to $2.40 on January 6, the asset resumed its downtrend and plunged to a 15-month low on February 5 at $1.11 (on most exchanges).

It reacted well to this decline and even challenged the $1.65 resistance a few weeks later, but to no avail. Although it was stopped there, it still trades at around $1.45 as of press time, which is 30% higher than its local low seen a month ago. Given the resurgence of the crypto market over the past several days, the question now is whether XRP has already bottomed out and, if so, what its next targets are.

ChatGPT Says…

To gain some perspective, we consulted three of the most utilized AI chatbots, starting with OpenAI’s solution. It noted that XRP found solid support at the “panic low” of $1.10-$1.15, and its ability to rebound decisively should encourage the bulls. It now trades above another significant structural support located at $1.30-$1.35, which should be a proper line of defense if there’s another leg down.

It placed the odds for a “bottom is in” scenario at 50%, saying that if $1.30 holds and crypto sentiment continues to improve, the cross-border token could be on its way to reclaim the first obstacle on its path to redemption at $1.65. If broken, the next target would be the psychological $2.00 line, followed by the January $2.40 peak.

“XRP could reach $2.50-$3.00 within 6-12 months if the crypto market enters a new expansion phase,” ChatGPT predicted.

In addition, it gave a 30% chance that XRP is currently in a long accumulation phase, which would mean trading within a tight range between $1.20 and $1.90 for the next up to 9 months. The bearish scenario (20%) is the least likely for now, ChatGPT added, and another drop to and below $1.10 is not overly expected unless there’s a major black swan event.

Gemini and Grok – Do You Agree?

Gemini’s short answer supported ChatGPT’s belief, saying, “It is highly likely that the $1.11 local bottom is in.” It indicated that higher lows are holding now after that flash crash, even though the asset was stopped at $1.65.

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Grok also weighed in on the matter, and it had a similar opinion. However, it outlined some of the recent key developments within the Ripple ecosystem that could further boost the underlying token. One of the latest was a major adoption move as the US Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) added Hidden Road Partners CIV US LLC to its NSCC Market Participant Identifiers directory.

This meant that the NSCC update allowed Ripple Prime to route institutional post-trade volumes directly onto the XRP Ledger. Grok added that if these moves continue and impact XRP, the asset could target $2.00-$2.15 in the near term and $2.80-$3.30 by the end of the year.

One year ago, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic crypto stockpile. Now, one year later, its value has decreased by billions.

At the beginning of his administration, Trump formed a working group to study how the government could best implement and regulate crypto. This included the Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto reserves.

Much has happened since. The first year of the Trump administration brought a number of macroeconomic and policy changes. Some of these, like new, friendly regulations from Washington, have been good for crypto. Others, like punitive tariffs and geopolitical escalation, have not.

Now the US’ crypto stockpile sits, with its token reserves largely unchanged since its establishment.

Little change in Trump’s crypto stockpile

On March 6, Trump formed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile by executive order.

The Bitcoin reserve would comprise solely that asset, while the crypto stockpile would be a diverse collection of altcoins. Ahead of the executive order, Trump said that it would include XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA).

Both would “not acquire additional assets for the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.”

The order effectively consolidated the forfeited assets, which at the time were spread across many different federal regulatory and law enforcement agencies. According to the order, it would also create an opportunity for the government to capitalize on the seized crypto.

“Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government’s cryptocurrency holdings,” the order stated.

The government does not publish the exact details of either the Bitcoin reserve or the crypto asset stockpile, but blockchain analysis firm Arkham Research has identified several blockchain wallets associated with the US government.

At publishing time, government crypto holdings are valued at $22,393,867,000, some $22 billion of which alone is Bitcoin. Other major holdings are stablecoin USDC (USDC), Ether (ETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and BNB (BNB).

How much these assets constitute the formal stockpile itself, or how and whether they were moved, is still not public information. But the dollar value has fallen significantly. According to Arkham, the US’ cumulative holdings were worth over $30 billion when Trump signed the order. At publishing time, they are worth $22 billion, a 26% decrease.

The White House appears unshaken by this. Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said regarding the recent price slump, “Volatility in a free market in which the government does not set prices is not going to change the Trump administration’s commitment to ensuring American dominance in cryptocurrency and other cutting-edge technologies of the future.”

Bitcoin token balance unchanged with no plans to buy

Despite hopes from Bitcoin maximalists that the US would start buying Bitcoin, the balance remains unchanged. Since the executive order, the US government has held 328,272 BTC.

The token balance of Ether, the next top asset by holdings in the US government’s portfolio, dropped off following the executive order, suggesting either an exchange or transfer. But after April 2025, the token balance stayed much the same.

Tether’s USDt (USDT), the largest stablecoin by token balance in the US’ portfolio, saw a significant jump in May 2025 of over 200 million tokens, before decreasing to pre-March 2026 levels.

These buying and selling patterns are not particularly clear. As noted above, the government makes no public disclosures about volumes.

While the new crypto reserve strategy did not completely preclude the government from buying Bitcoin, it required any purchases to be done in a budget-neutral fashion. AI and crypto czar David Sacks said last year, “It cannot add to the deficit, it cannot add to the debt, it cannot tax the American people.”

“It won’t cost the taxpayer dimes, but if the secretaries can figure out how to accumulate more bitcoin without costing taxpayers anything, then they are authorized to do that.”

One year on, it isn’t clear how or whether the administration has developed such a strategy.

Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of crypto firm Blockworks, told the BBC last year that a crypto stockpile made of several different assets could negatively impact markets. “Without a clear framework, we risk arbitrary asset selections, which would distort the markets and drive a loss of public trust.”

“Ensuring transparency through independent audits and public reporting is crucial for fostering innovation instead of favouritism,” he said.

The idea of Bitcoin reserves, be they at the state or corporate level, grew last year following the success of software company-cum-Bitcoin investment vehicle Strategy. The narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold made holding the asset an attractive prospect for government budgets.

According to data from tracking site BitcoinTreasuries.net, 10 countries hold Bitcoin, including the US, China, Ukraine, El Salvador, the United Kingdom and North Korea.

At the corporate level, analysts are expecting consolidation as the bear market continues. Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer of crypto infrastructure and treasury company BTCS, previously told Cointelegraph that companies with Bitcoin treasuries below net asset value will be acquired by operating businesses.

Bitcoin reserves are still a new idea that has yet to be tested in the depths of crypto winter.

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