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Polymarket racks up $50M bets as tensions rage on

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Trending Polymarket bets as of Sunday morning. (Polymarket)

It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into a trading floor.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse by June.

The speed and specificity of the markets is striking. Bettors aren’t just wagering on whether the conflict escalates, but pricing the week it ends, who replaces Khamenei, and whether U.S. ground forces enter Iran by March 7.

Trending Polymarket bets as of Sunday morning. (Polymarket)

Polymarket’s largest completed market is “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” which resolved to 100% after Iranian state TV confirmed his death.

The contract pulled $45 million in volume, making it one of the most-traded geopolitical markets in the platform’s history. The top trader, an account called ‘Curseaaaaaaa,’ made $757,000 on a Yes bet. Four other traders each cleared six figures.

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(Polymarket)

The chart on that market hovered between 25% and 50% through January and February as tensions built, then spiked vertically to 100% when confirmation came through.

Now the action has shifted to what comes next.

The ceasefire market gives just a 4% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 and 15% by March 6, but jumps to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30. Bettors are pricing a resolution within weeks, not months, consistent with bitcoin’s bounce to $68,000 on the same thesis.

(Polymarket)

“Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” sits at 54%, up sharply from the low-20s where it had traded for months. The “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market gives a 30% chance to “position abolished” entirely, meaning bettors see nearly a one-in-three shot that the theocratic structure itself doesn’t survive. Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, leads the named candidates at 21%.

The ground invasion contracts are pulling real volume too. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” trades at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” sits at 28% with $2 million traded.

What Polymarket is doing here is something traditional markets structurally cannot. Equity and oil futures don’t reopen until Sunday evening, but on Polymarket, anyone with a crypto wallet can take a position on Iranian regime change on a casual weekend and see real-time pricing from thousands of other participants doing the same thing.

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But the most striking activity may have happened before the first missiles landed.

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps on Saturday identified six wallets that collectively netted $1.2 million in profit by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran by February 28, the exact day the strikes occurred.

Most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, bet specifically on the Feb. 28 contract rather than broader timeframes, and purchased “yes” shares hours before the military operation began. The largest single wallet turned roughly $61,000 into over $493,000 in profit. A second netted approximately $120,000 from a $30,000 position.

The platform is aware of the optics, meanwhile.

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Polymarket added a note to its Middle East markets on Sunday stating that “the promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” adding that after speaking with people directly affected by the attacks, it found that prediction markets “could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”

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Bitget Launches New Pre-IPO Product With SpaceX as First Listing

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Bitget Launches New Pre-IPO Product With SpaceX as First Listing

Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), has launched IPO Prime, introducing a new market structure that enables users to access and trade pre-IPO exposure to global unicorn companies such as SpaceX. 

Powered by Republic, the launch marks an expansion beyond traditional secondary market trading, enabling participation in value creation before companies enter public markets, a phase historically limited to institutional investors and private capital networks. Through IPO Prime, Bitget extends its Universal Exchange framework into primary market access, bridging a long-standing gap between private and public market participation.

IPO Prime operates through a subscription-based model, where eligible users can apply for allocations in tokenized offerings tied to specific companies. Allocation limits are determined based on user tier, with higher participation thresholds available to elevated VIP levels. Following the subscription phase, these digital assets transition into an over-the-counter market on Bitget, enabling continuous pricing, trading and circulation within a structured environment.

The first offering under IPO Prime is preSPAX, a digital asset designed to mirror the economic performance of SpaceX following its potential public listing. As one of the most closely watched private companies globally, SpaceX represents the type of high-growth opportunity that has traditionally remained inaccessible to retail investors.

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“Since the beginning of financial markets, access to pre-IPO opportunities has been defined by exclusivity,” said Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget. “IPO Prime allows users to participate earlier in a company’s growth cycle, with the flexibility of continuous trading. This shifts how and when investors can engage with emerging companies, which gives retailers and new investors a chance to buy-in early. This is part of our greater shift towards building an UEX, democratizing access to financial equality.”

To mark the launch, Bitget will introduce two rounds of preSPAX token airdrops for eligible VIP users, on April 13, 2026 at 10:00 (UTC), providing early participants with additional exposure as the platform begins onboarding its first offering. The official preSPAX token launches on April 21, 2026 at 12:00 (UTC), with the commitment period starting April 18, 2026, 18:00 and ending April 21, 2026, 18:00 (UTC). Distribution period runs from April 21, 2026 18:00 till April 21, 2026, 22:00 (UTC). 

The introduction of IPO Prime is a new route to traditional financial opportunities being structured and accessed. As boundaries between asset classes continue to blur, platforms are expanding beyond traditional and crypto trading to include early-stage market participation. Within Bitget’s Universal Exchange model, IPO Prime moves towards integrating diverse financial opportunities into a single, unified environment.

To find out more about IPO Prime and further details on preSPAX, visit here

Disclaimer: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This product may not be suitable for your jurisdiction. This product represents only a mirrored economic interest in the potential upside of SpaceX upon a qualifying event, and does not constitute a direct investment in SpaceX. SpaceX has not endorsed, approved, or authorized this Product in any capacity. Digital asset trading involves significant risks and price fluctuations, and you may lose all investment principal without any guarantee of return. Please ensure compliance with local laws and regulations and seek independent professional advice before investing. 

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About Bitget

Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users and offering access to over 2M crypto tokens, 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX, and precious metals such as gold. The ecosystem is committed to helping users trade smarter with its AI agent, which co-pilots trade execution. Bitget is driving crypto adoption through strategic partnerships with LALIGA and MotoGP™. Aligned with its global impact strategy, Bitget has joined hands with UNICEF to support blockchain education for 1.1 million people by 2027. Bitget currently leads in the tokenized TradFi market, providing the industry’s lowest fees and highest liquidity across 150 regions worldwide.

For more information, visit: Website | Twitter | Telegram | LinkedIn | Discord

Risk Warning: Digital asset prices are subject to fluctuation and may experience significant volatility. Investors are advised to only allocate funds they can afford to lose. The value of any investment may be impacted, and there is a possibility that financial objectives may not be met, nor the principal investment recovered. Independent financial advice should always be sought, and personal financial experience and standing carefully considered. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bitget accepts no liability for any potential losses incurred. Nothing contained herein should be construed as financial advice. For further information, please refer to our Terms of Use.

The post Bitget Launches New Pre-IPO Product With SpaceX as First Listing appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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TON Blockchain is Now 10x Faster: Pavel Durov Explains the Upgrade

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TON Blockchain is Now 10x Faster: Pavel Durov Explains the Upgrade

Pavel Durov announced that the TON blockchain is now 10x faster. The Telegram founder shared the news on April 9, explaining that transactions now confirm in under one second. Before the upgrade, users waited over five seconds for finality.

“The TON blockchain just got upgraded and is now 10× faster,” Durov wrote. “Transactions are now instant, subsecond.”

How the Upgrade Works

The speed improvement comes from Catchain 2.0, a new consensus mechanism running under the hood. Blocks now generate every 400 milliseconds, which is 6x faster than before. A new streaming layer pushes updates to apps almost instantly rather than making them wait for the next block.

For everyday users, this means payments go through in about one second. Trades execute in real time. Apps respond immediately. The delays that made blockchain interactions feel slow compared to regular apps are largely gone.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

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Step One of Make TON Great Again

Durov framed the upgrade as the first step in a seven-part plan he calls “Make TON Great Again,” or MTONGA. The name echoes a certain political slogan, but the goals are technical: making TON fast enough and cheap enough to compete with centralized platforms.

The next step on the roadmap: cutting transaction fees by 6x. TON fees are already low compared to Ethereum or Solana, but further reductions would make micropayments and high-frequency applications more practical.

Durov designed TON to work inside Telegram, which has over one billion users. His vision includes payments that feel like sending a message, Mini Apps that respond instantly, and DeFi tools that rival the speed of centralized exchanges.

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At five-second confirmation times, delivering that experience was difficult. At sub-second finality, it becomes possible. The infrastructure now matches what users expect from any other app on their phone.

What Comes Next for TON

The upgrade went live on mainnet on April 10, 2026. Durov confirmed the fee reduction as step two but has not yet shared the timeline for the remaining six steps in the MTONGA roadmap.

For developers building on TON, the recommendation is to update their apps to use streaming APIs rather than polling. In other words, the blockchain is faster. Apps need to catch up.

The post TON Blockchain is Now 10x Faster: Pavel Durov Explains the Upgrade appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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The magic word for digital assets adoption and success: choice

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The magic word for digital assets adoption and success: choice

Digital assets have moved well beyond the hype cycle. What began as an experiment in decentralized value transfer has evolved into a serious conversation about how capital markets, custody, settlement and asset ownership could be re-imagined for the digital age. Tokenization, programmable money and distributed ledgers may deliver faster settlement, greater transparency and new efficiencies across the financial system.

The opportunity is both real and transformative, but accelerated adoption of digital assets is not guaranteed.

The ecosystem’s success will not be determined by any single technology, protocol, innovator or platform. Instead, it will hinge on whether the industry embraces a principle that traditional markets have relied on and come to expect for more than a century: choice.

If investors, issuers and intermediaries are forced into narrow paths and left without options, the promise of digital assets risks being constrained by the very silos they were meant to dismantle. For Web3 to flourish, market participants must be able to choose how, where and when they engage.

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Choice in blockchain networks: avoiding silos

One of the most pressing challenges facing digital assets adoption today is fragmentation. New blockchains and networks continue to emerge, each optimized for different use cases, governance models or performance requirements. While innovation is healthy, disconnected ecosystems can quickly become a barrier to scale.

Without interoperability, assets risk being locked into isolated environments, limiting liquidity, mobility and investor access. The result is a digital version of the same inefficiencies that have historically plagued financial markets, with the added benefits of being faster and more complex.

Interoperability has the potential to change that result. A “network of networks” approach enables assets to move securely across platforms, enabling market participant firms and investors to take full advantage of tokenization’s potential while preserving market integrity and scale. It simplifies use cases, unlocks new business models and supports regulatory consistency, without forcing the industry to converge on a single chain.

Indeed, some investors may prefer open, public blockchains, while others may gravitate toward private blockchains. It’s not a matter of ‘or’ – both can and should be available.

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Achieving this vision will require collaboration. Market infrastructure providers, technology firms and regulators must work together to establish frameworks that prioritize compatibility and interoperability over control. In a recent white paper authored by The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) in collaboration with Clearstream, Euroclear and BCG, we explored how shared standards and coordinated governance could help advance interoperability while maintaining trust and resilience. The message was and remains clear: interoperability is foundational to scale and the future growth of digital markets.

Choice in what assets to tokenize (and when!)

Tokenization is often discussed as an inevitability, but inevitability should not be confused with immediacy. Not every asset will tokenize, and those that do will not do so at the same pace.

For example, while The Depository Trust Corporation (DTC), as a securities depository, facilitates the post‑trade settlement of securities representing over $100 trillion in value, we are not advocating for broad, indiscriminate, or immediate tokenization. Particularly in the early stages of this ecosystem, disciplined sequencing, intentionality, and caution are essential.

Certain asset classes, especially those with clear operational inefficiencies, high reconciliation costs or settlement frictions, are natural early candidates for tokenization. Others may follow as technology matures, regulatory clarity increases, and market demand evolves. Giving issuers and investors the ability to decide what makes sense for their needs, and on their timeline, reduces risk and builds confidence.

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Choice, in this context, is about sequencing and needs. It allows the market to learn, adapt and scale responsibly rather than forcing adoption before the infrastructure is ready.

Choice in how investors want to hold real-world assets

Digital transformation does not mean abandoning established investing principles and processes.

For many institutional investors, tokenized assets will coexist with traditional holdings for many years to come. Some will prefer onchain representations for their operational efficiency or programmability. Others will continue to rely on established custody models, particularly as compliance and risk frameworks evolve.

A successful digital asset ecosystem can support both. Investors should be able to hold assets in tokenized form alongside traditional securities – and even switch back and forth between them – without sacrificing legal certainty, operational continuity or even the feeling of being in control. Flexibility ensures participation is driven by value, not obligation, and that trust is earned, not assumed.

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Choice in wallets: empowering the client

Perhaps the most tangible expression of choice is the wallet.

As digital assets enter mainstream financial markets, participants will bring different preferences, risk tolerances and operational requirements. Some will prioritize self-custody. Others will rely on institutional-grade solutions. Many will want the freedom to change over time.

Wallet selection should belong to clients (market participant firms). No prescribed wallet. No mandated standard. This model empowers market participants to choose based on their own security needs, regulatory considerations, geographic requirements or internal controls.

This flexibility is essential for adoption at scale. Markets will thrive when financial institutions have the opportunity to engage on their own terms and can make decisions based on their clients’ and investors’ strategies, needs and preferences.

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The path forward

The success of the digital assets ecosystem will not be built on constraints and limitations. Instead, it will be built on options: choice in blockchain, in assets, in custody and in wallets. These are practical requirements for facilitating growth.

If the industry gets this right, digital assets can deliver on their promise: more inclusive, efficient and resilient markets. If it gets it wrong, it risks recreating the limitations of the past on faster rails.

Choice is the key to making digital assets work for everyone.

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White House Warns Staff as Iran Bets Spark Insider Concerns

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White House Warns Staff as Iran Bets Spark Insider Concerns

The White House warned staff against improperly using confidential information to place bets in futures markets after suspicious oil trades ahead of President Donald Trump’s March 23 Iran announcement drew scrutiny, according to Reuters.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the White House sent the internal email on March 24, a day after Trump ordered a five-day delay in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

The warning followed a roughly $500 million bet on Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures placed in a one-minute burst shortly before Trump’s March 23 announcement, according to Reuters calculations based on exchange data. Oil prices fell about 15% after the policy shift.

The episode has intensified scrutiny of whether officials or politically connected traders could profit from nonpublic information tied to military or policy decisions. It has also added momentum to a broader push in Washington to tighten rules around prediction-market trading.

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The STOCK Act amendment in the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) prohibits federal officials, congress members, executive staff and judicial officers from using non-public information derived from their positions to trade commodity, futures or options markets. The amendment was signed into law on April 4, 2012.

Cointelegraph has approached the White House for a copy of the internal email.

Related: US Senate bill targets prediction markets on war and assassinations

Lawmakers respond to prediction market insider trading concerns

Lawmakers have also stepped up scrutiny of prediction markets, where well-timed bets tied to military and political events have raised similar concerns about the misuse of privileged information. Polymarket traders netted around $1 million by accurately betting when the US would strike Iran.

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In response to the concerns, Congressman Adrian Smith and Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act) on March 25, a bipartisan bill seeking to ban members of Congress and federal officials from prediction market trading.

On March 26, US lawmakers Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis and Adam Schiff unveiled the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, a bill aimed at curbing prediction market insider trading by government officials.

End Prediction Market Corruption Act. Source: Merkley.senate.gov

The same day, Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, seeking to ban event contract trading by government officials with “material non-public information,” including the president, vice president and members of Congress.

Magazine: Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions — Peter Brandt