Polymarket renames Artemis II explosion bet after backlash

Polymarket has renamed its “Artemis II explodes?” market after outraged critics branded the company as “evil” and suggested that it could lead to the mission being intentionally sabotaged.

The prediction market first featured the controversial bet on January 20 as part of its series related to NASA’s Artemis II launch and it has so far pulled in over $81,000 in trading volume. 

Users on X, however, voiced their distaste after Citations Needed podcast host Adam Johnson claimed that markets “wagering on people dying should not be legal!”

Aerospace engineering professor Dr Chris Combs said, “The fact that there could now be a financial incentive to sabotage a crewed space mission is pretty dystopian.” 

Others noted the incentive and claimed that it could see “prediction markets turn into assassination markets.”

Read more: Polymarket faces backlash over ‘sick’ California wildfire markets

In response to Johnson’s first post, Polymarket said, “To clarify: this was a market about a potential booster-stage rupture — a defined hardware failure scenario — not about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety.”

It added, “This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life.”

However, this response wasn’t well received and some called Polymarket a “truly evil company.” Others, meanwhile, told the person behind the post to quit their job and stop working for an indefensible firm.

Some users took Polymarket’s logic to highlight how ridiculous it sounds. One user said, “I would like to bet on whether your social media team’s vehicles suffer brake failures — a defined hardware failure scenario. This would not be a market on team injury or loss of life.”  

Eventually, Polymarket changed the name of the market to the more tasteful “Artemis II booster rupture?”

It noted, “This market’s language has been updated for clarity.”

Houston, we have a problem gambler

Others weren’t so upset by the market. Economics professor Chris Freiman argued that this market holds “important information that should motivate decision makers to cancel the launch.”

He said, “We shouldn’t lose life-saving information because some outside observers find it gross.” Another economics professor, Alex Tabarok, tried to equate banning the exploding market to banning life insurance. 

Both professors were shot down by users on X. Some noted that authoritative figures in charge of the launch won’t be checking Polymarket to assess vessel safety, nor would anyone with that information working on the launch keep that information away from their superiors to gamble on Polymarket instead. 

Others noted that, even if it could be compared to banning life insurance, this market would be closer to the Stranger-Originated Life Insurance and be “extremely” illegal.

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Polymarket is no stranger to controversial markets and has hosted many that involved people potentially dying.

Back in 2023, when it was still unknown what fate had befallen the crew of the failed Titan Submersible, Polymarket held a wager on when the vessel would be found. 

It frequently holds markets on military conflicts across the world, and has even hosted bets on how far fires would spread during the 2025 La Wildfires. 

More recently, arrests have been made and charges issued against Israelis over various bets made on Polymarket that allegedly utilised confidential military secrets.

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