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Polymarket Updates Standards to Prevent Market Manipulation

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Polymarket updated its market integrity rules to address manipulation and insider trading risks.
  • The company introduced stricter market design standards and clearer resolution criteria for contract outcomes.
  • Polymarket enhanced surveillance systems to detect suspicious trading activity across its platforms.
  • The platform banned and reported users who pressured a journalist over a $17 million prediction market.
  • Reports showed that six newly created accounts earned about $1 million from bets on US strikes on Iran.

Polymarket updated its market integrity rules to address manipulation and insider trading risks. The company announced stricter standards for market design and resolution criteria on Monday. It also expanded surveillance controls as regulators increase scrutiny of event-based contracts.

Polymarket Updates Market Standards and Compliance Framework

Polymarket said it aligned its global platform rules with regulatory standards, and it strengthened oversight on its US exchange. The US platform operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission compliance, and the company confirmed tighter monitoring systems. It stated that clearer resolution criteria and defined data sources will govern contract outcomes.

The company said it will limit markets that it considers easily manipulated or ethically sensitive, and it will restrict certain event contracts. It confirmed enhanced surveillance tools to detect suspicious trading patterns and insider activity. Polymarket said, “We are enhancing monitoring and surveillance measures to detect suspicious trading activity.”

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Enforcement Actions and Regulatory Scrutiny Intensify

Polymarket said it banned and reported users who pressured an Israeli journalist over coverage of an Iranian missile strike. The disputed article related to a $17 million prediction market tied to the strike. The company confirmed it acted after users issued death threats to influence reporting tied to contract outcomes.

Bloomberg reported that six newly created accounts generated about $1 million in profits from bets on US strikes on Iran. All six accounts opened in February and placed wagers only on whether the strikes would occur. The trading activity raised questions about insider trading and market fairness.

Several US states have taken action against prediction platforms, and they allege unlicensed gambling operations. Regulators have increased oversight as prediction markets expand across political and global events. Polymarket operates its US exchange under CFTC oversight, and it said it supports integrity protections.

Growth Strategy and Partnership Agreements

Polymarket raised $200 million in July, and reports said it seeks a valuation of up to $10 billion. Prediction markets have attracted active traders who wager on political and economic outcomes. The company continues to expand its regulated presence while adjusting its compliance framework.

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Major League Baseball signed a partnership agreement with Polymarket, and the league confirmed the arrangement last week. The deal includes integrity protections, and it aligns with a separate agreement involving the CFTC. The agreements outline cooperation on monitoring and compliance standards for event-based contracts.

Polymarket said the updated framework will apply to both its decentralized platform and its US exchange. The company confirmed that it will implement stricter data standards and clearer outcome definitions. Monday’s announcement detailed the new rules as the latest step in its compliance roadmap.

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Senators to Introduce Bill to Ban Sports Betting on Prediction Markets

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Senators to Introduce Bill to Ban Sports Betting on Prediction Markets

US Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are expected to introduce a bipartisan bill on Monday that would bar sports betting and “casino-style” contracts from prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to a Monday Wall Street Journal report.

“Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” Senator Curtis, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, told the WSJ.

If introduced as reported, the measure would add to a widening Washington push against certain prediction market contracts. The report adds to the growing regulatory scrutiny over prediction markets, following renewed insider trading concerns sparked by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

On March 10, Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a bill seeking to prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual death.

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Related: Prediction markets boom on Iran bets as Congress eyes ban

Sports markets drive trading volume

Sports betting is a leading source of trading activity on prediction market platforms. Sports-related contracts accounted for 47.7% of Polymarket’s weekly notional volume and 78.8% for Kalshi last week, according to Dune data.

Sports betting generated $1.2 billion in weekly notional trading volume for Polymarket and $2.6 billion for Kalshi.

Polymarket, Kalshi, weekly notional volume by category. Source: Dune

State and federal lines blur

The regulatory pressure has also intensified outside Congress. On March 12, the CFTC  issued a staff advisory classifying event contracts on prediction markets as a “financial asset class.”

The commodities regulator also submitted an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, asking for public feedback on how the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) would apply to prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi are regulated by the CFTC as Designated Contract Markets (DCM).

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Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings

While CFTC Chair Michael Selig claimed the CFTC had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, an Ohio judge tested that claim in a March 9 ruling, saying that Kalshi had failed to show the CEA “would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” or that these sports betting contracts would fall under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the CFTC.

On Friday, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment event contracts in the state for 14 days, finding regulators were reasonably likely to succeed in arguing the markets violated Nevada gambling law.

Cointelegraph approached the senators for comment and a copy of the draft bill.

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