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Powell’s comments on oil, inflation may provide BTC price guidance: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market are taking a breather in advance of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision, which could confirm that the interest-rate backdrop is becoming less of a tailwind.

The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range, putting the focus on growth and inflation projections as well as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-meeting press conference.

“For investors, the key question is whether the dot plot shifts toward fewer cuts and whether Powell emphasizes the danger of easing financial conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to the chart of where decision makers expect interest rates to be at year-end. “Either development would reinforce a ‘higher for longer’ bias and tighten financial conditions at the margin.”

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According to Dori, the bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, where repeated failures to stay above $75,000 signals caution and mean-reversion behavior. Should the Fed raise alarm over the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil-price shock and reinforce expectations of slower or delayed rate cuts, then BTC is likely to remain below $75,000.

“A more hawkish stance could keep bitcoin capped below 75k and extend the current consolidation phase,” he noted.

Singapore-based QCP Capital said markets have pared easing expectations as the higher oil price complicates the case for interest-rate cuts, even as growth and labour data soften. This leaves the rates backdrop less supportive for crypto.

Bitcoin’s stalled upswing stalled comes despite renewed institutional appetite for spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.

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The broader market continues to mirror the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 Index has been largely steady for the past 24 hours, alongside similar action in ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and other majors. Smaller coins such as SIREN, M, and KAS, however, have gained about 10% each.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 index have risen by 0.5%, signaling an extension of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index pulled back to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield receded to 4.17% from 4.30%. Taken together, these moves point to continued risk-on sentiment. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

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  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. PPI MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. (Prev. 0.8%)
    • March 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for February est. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%); Core PPI YoY est. 3.2% (Prev. 3.6%)
    • March 18, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision est. 2.25% (Prev. 2.25%)
    • March 18, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Factory Orders MoM for January (Prev. -0.7%)
    • March 18, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision est. 3.50%-3.75% (Prev. 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC economic projections
    • March 18, 2:30 p.m.: Fed Chair press conference
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • March 18: Jupiter (JUP) to hold its weekly Planetary Call community session with team updates.
    • March 18: head of marketing and PR to discuss ecosystem updates.
    • WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends March 18.
    • ENS is voting on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends March 18.
  • Unlocks
  • Token Launches
    • March 18: Katana (KAT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $73,825.38 (24hrs: +0.11%)
  • ETH is down 0.44% at $2,307.45 (24hrs: -0.33%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% at 2,148.73 (24hrs: -0.27%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.75%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance
CD20 components
  • DXY is unchanged at 99.56
  • Gold futures are down 0.10% at $4,996.20
  • Silver futures are up 0.65% at $80.05
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
  • Hang Seng closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42
  • FTSE 100 is up 0.29% at 10,433.60
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.02% at 5,828.33
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.10% at 46,993.26
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.50% at 3,459.11
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.20%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.30% at 6,809.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.57% at 25,184.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.18% at 47,595.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $32.37
  • Total fees: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 115,080 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.93%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in the number of BTCUSD longs on Bitfinex in candlestick format. (TradingView)
The growth in the number of BTCUSD longs on Bitfinex has stalled. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows the number of BTC/USD longs, or bullish bets, on Bitfinex.
  • The growth has stalled, with the tally now at 78,470 versus 79,115 early this month.
  • As counterintuitive as it may sound, past data shows that declines in long positions on Bitfinex tend to be bullish for BTC, and vice versa.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $210.23 (+3.40%), +1.77% at $213.95 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% at $9.33
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% at $14.83
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% at $16.66
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% at $134.30
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% at $40.38

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy Inc. (MSTR): closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% at $150.76
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged in pre-market
  • SharpLink (SBET): closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% at $8.35
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), –0.87% at $1.14
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $199.4 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.51 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $138.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.99 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Crypto market update: Iran’s Hormuz crypto toll

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Stablecoin payments firm TransFi raises over $19M to expand services

The crypto market update bitcoin war hedge Strait of Hormuz news today centers on a striking development: Iran’s IRGC has established a formal toll system at the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, demanding payments in stablecoins or Chinese yuan for naval escort through the strait — yet despite crypto’s growing role in wartime finance, Bitcoin has underperformed gold significantly since the conflict began on February 28.

Summary

  • Bloomberg reported April 1 that Iran’s IRGC is charging ships a baseline of $1 per barrel — up to $2 million per very large crude carrier — payable in stablecoins or yuan, with a five-tier “friendliness ranking” system determining access and escort terms
  • Chainalysis estimated Iranian-linked on-chain crypto activity reached $7.8 billion in 2025, with stablecoins playing a central role; Iran legalized Bitcoin mining in 2019 and its Ministry of Defense has accepted crypto for military export contracts since January 2026
  • Bitcoin has underperformed gold as a wartime hedge since the conflict began, sitting at rank 12 by market cap with dominance at 59%, while gold has held safe-haven capital that Bitcoin has not captured

The crypto market update bitcoin war hedge Strait of Hormuz news has a sharper edge than most market commentary suggests. According to Bloomberg’s report from April 1, Iran’s IRGC has formalized control over the world’s most important oil chokepoint into a structured payment gateway. Ship operators seeking Hormuz transit must submit vessel ownership records, flag registration, cargo manifests, crew lists, and AIS tracking data to an IRGC-linked intermediary. The IRGC then assigns the ship a ranking on a five-tier “friendliness” scale — lowest rankings get most favorable terms. Once payment is received, a single-use passcode is broadcast over VHF radio and an Iranian naval escort guides the ship through.

Critically, Iran is demanding payment in stablecoins — not Bitcoin — specifically because stablecoins eliminate price volatility between invoice and settlement, making them functionally equivalent to dollar wire transfers while remaining outside the US dollar clearing system. Oil tankers start at around $1 per barrel, with very large crude carriers paying up to $2 million per transit. At least 15 to 18 ships have transited under this system in recent weeks.

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Iran’s Crypto Infrastructure Is Not New

The Hormuz toll system is the most visible iteration of a much longer-running strategy. Iran legalized Bitcoin mining in 2019, at its peak contributing an estimated 4 to 5% of global Bitcoin hash rate. Chainalysis estimates Iranian-linked crypto activity reached $7.8 billion on-chain in 2025. In January 2026, Iran’s Ministry of Defense Export Center updated its systems to accept stablecoin payments for drone, missile, and other military export contracts.

Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee approved a formal “Strait of Hormuz Management Plan” on March 31, which includes an official toll structure that references Iranian rials as currency but operates in practice with yuan and stablecoins to bypass OFAC enforcement.

Is Bitcoin a War Hedge? The Data Says Not Here

As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin has dropped roughly 12% since the war began, while gold — despite its own volatility — has retained more safe-haven capital. Bitcoin sits at rank 12 by market cap, well behind gold at the top, and BTC dominance of 59% reflects consolidation rather than flight-to-safety flows. The Coinbase Premium Index has been in negative territory throughout the conflict, signaling US spot demand has not materialized in the way gold demand has.

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As crypto.news noted, each confirmed escalation event in this conflict has produced immediate Bitcoin selling rather than buying — the opposite of what a war hedge would deliver. The stablecoin role in Iran’s Hormuz system is operationally rational: it solves a payment problem. Whether Bitcoin becomes a war hedge depends on a different question — whether retail and institutional capital decides to treat it as one.

“Bitcoin still trades more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive hedge in the current climate,” one Orbit Markets analyst told Bloomberg this month.

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Sky Protocol Proposes Two Structural Upgrades to Strengthen Capital Protection Framework: Sky Governance

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Sky Protocol Proposes Two Structural Upgrades to Strengthen Capital Protection Framework: Sky Governance

Sky Governance is proposing a stronger solvency buffer and a more sustainable staking rewards model to solidify long-term protocol stability.

Sky Governance is proposing two structural upgrades to strengthen the protocol’s capital protection framework, according to an announcement on April 7, 2026. The proposals include implementing a stronger solvency buffer and adopting a more sustainable staking rewards model. The measures are designed to solidify Sky Protocol’s long-term stability while prioritizing trustworthiness over short-term yield-seeking.

Sky Protocol cited sUSDS, its yield-generating stablecoin, as the largest in its category, attributing its success to the protocol’s distinctive risk posture compared to competitors in the space. The governance updates reflect Sky Protocol’s commitment to capital protection and long-term sustainability.

Sources: Sky Ecosystem

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This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.

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FDIC Moves to Treat Stablecoins Like Banks Under New Rule

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has moved to tighten oversight of stablecoins, signaling a clear shift in how these digital assets will operate in the United States.

On April 7, the FDIC approved a proposal to implement key provisions of the GENIUS Act. The rule would set standards for stablecoin issuers under its supervision, including requirements for reserves, redemptions, capital, and risk management.

In simple terms, stablecoins in the US are being pushed closer to the banking system. Issuers will need to hold safe assets such as cash or US Treasuries and prove they can redeem tokens reliably at a one-to-one value.

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At the same time, the proposal formally brings banks into the stablecoin ecosystem. Insured banks would be allowed to hold reserves and provide custody services. This links stablecoins more directly to traditional financial infrastructure.

The FDIC also addressed how deposits backing stablecoins may be treated. If these funds meet the legal definition of a deposit, they could qualify for the same protections as regular bank deposits. This could increase trust but also expands regulatory control.

However, the rule is not final. The agency will accept public comments for 60 days before making changes.

Overall, the direction is clear. In the US, stablecoins are no longer being treated as a separate crypto product. They are operating under rules similar to those applied to banks.

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The post FDIC Moves to Treat Stablecoins Like Banks Under New Rule appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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FDIC Approves GENIUS Act Stablecoin Rule to Govern Reserve, Capital, and Deposit Standards

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TLDR:

  • The FDIC Board approved a proposed rule establishing a prudential framework for payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act.
  • FDIC-supervised IDIs offering stablecoin custodial and safekeeping services will face defined requirements under the new rule.
  • The rule clarifies that tokenized deposits meeting the deposit definition will be treated equally under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act.
  • Public comments on the proposed rule will be accepted for 60 days following its official Federal Register publication date.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has taken a notable regulatory step for digital assets. Its Board of Directors approved a notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act).

The proposed rule sets a prudential framework for FDIC-supervised permitted payment stablecoin issuers. It covers reserve assets, redemption, capital, and risk management standards. This marks the FDIC’s second rulemaking under the GENIUS Act.

FDIC Sets Prudential Standards for Stablecoin Issuers

The proposed rule targets FDIC-supervised permitted payment stablecoin issuers directly. It establishes clear requirements around reserve assets, redemption processes, capital adequacy, and risk management. These standards aim to bring consistency across how stablecoin issuers operate within the banking system.

The FDIC also addressed insured depository institutions (IDIs) offering stablecoin-related custodial and safekeeping services. Such institutions will face specific requirements under this proposed framework.

This ensures that custodial services for stablecoins meet the same prudential standards as other banking activities.

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The FDIC Board approved the proposed rulemaking and announced it through official channels earlier today. The rule reflects an ongoing effort to integrate digital assets into existing regulatory norms. It follows months of legislative activity surrounding the broader GENIUS Act framework.

Deposit Insurance Clarified for Reserves and Tokenized Deposits

The proposed rule also addresses pass-through insurance for deposits held as stablecoin reserves. This clarifies how federal deposit insurance applies within a stablecoin context. It is a practical detail for institutions managing reserve-backed payment stablecoins.

Moreover, the rule covers tokenized deposits meeting the statutory definition of a deposit. Under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, such deposits will receive no different treatment than any other deposit type. This provides legal clarity for banks exploring tokenized deposit products going forward.

The public comment period for the proposed rule will remain open for 60 days after its Federal Register publication.

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Stakeholders across the financial and crypto sectors will have an opportunity to respond. This allows the industry to contribute before the rule is finalized.

This latest proposal is the FDIC’s second rulemaking under the GENIUS Act. The first was issued on December 19, 2025, covering application procedures for IDIs seeking to issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries.

Together, both rules are building the foundation of a broader federal stablecoin regulatory framework. As the GENIUS Act continues to take shape, regulated stablecoin issuance is becoming increasingly well-defined for financial institutions.

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Soar, Will BTC Price Follow?

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Soar, Will BTC Price Follow?

Key takeaways:

  • BTC failed to hold $70,000 despite strong ETF inflows as selling by public miners offset recent institutional buying.

  • Options markets reflect high demand for downside protection as a 17% put premium signals cautious sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain Monday’s $70,000 level despite $471 million in net inflows into US-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The market’s initial excitement faded following reports that multiple US and Israeli aircraft and equipment were destroyed during a military operation in Iran over the weekend.

Since the S&P 500 remained relatively flat between Friday and Tuesday, Bitcoin’s inability to maintain bullish momentum likely stems from other factors.

Bitcoin US-listed spot ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $471 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest in over five weeks; however, the trend for the preceding two weeks remained muted, signaling a lack of conviction. Part of traders’ concern stems from recent Bitcoin sales by publicly listed miners.

Bitcoin miner and digital asset treasury companies put BTC under pressure

MARA Holdings (MARA US) reportedly transferred 250 BTC on Tuesday, according to Lookonchain data. MARA previously announced the sale of 15,133 BTC in March and reported 38,689 BTC held in total. Traders fear additional sell pressure as multiple miners focus on trimming debt to fund a strategic shift toward AI computing data centers.

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Riot Platforms (RIOT US) transferred 1,500 BTC for sale during the first week of April, according to Arkham data. Per the latest operational update, the company held 15,680 BTC, intensifying fears of continued liquidations as high energy costs negatively impact operations.

Other addresses linked to large miners sold 265 BTC on Tuesday after accumulating since early 2024, according to Lookonchain. The address 3PFNdgGi…myCh139 still holds 112 BTC. Regardless of the rationale behind these movements, sentiment worsened after Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped to 953 exahashes on Monday, down from 1,083 exahashes in late February.

Bitcoin mining estimated hashrate (exahashes). Source: Blockchain.com

Strategy (MSTR US) continued accumulating Bitcoin, totaling 4,871 BTC in the previous week alone. However, investors increasingly fear that few buyers remain after a two-month bear market, especially as companies that raised debt to accumulate Bitcoin face heavy pressure and are forced to sell some reserves.

Publicly-listed companies, ranked by returns on BTC reserves. Source: BitcoinTreasuries

Among the companies that reduced Bitcoin holdings over the past month are Sequans Communications (SQNS FR) and Nakamoto Inc (NAKA US). More concerning, a handful of other listed companies face losses of 35% or more on their Bitcoin holdings, including GD Culture Group (GDC US) and OranjeBTC (OBTC3 BR), according to BitcoinTreasuries data.

Related: Bitcoin price risks ‘$15K shakeout’ in the next 5 months, BTC analyst warns

Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Bitcoin options markets signaled discomfort on Tuesday as put (sell) options traded at a 17% premium relative to call (buy) instruments. Traders believe whales have a better gauge of the market, but the options skew results from regular traders constantly buying downside protection rather than a premeditated movement from market makers.

There is no indication that professional traders are leaning bearish, but a single day of strong ETF net inflows does not prove heightened institutional demand. Hence, even if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifts risk markets, odds are Bitcoin could struggle to sustain levels above $75,000 given the risk-averse sentiment.

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