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Prediction market activity jumps 2,800% as geopolitical bets dominate

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Prediction market activity jumps 2,800% as geopolitical bets dominate

Prediction market usage hit record levels in March, supported by improved accessibility and favourable regulatory developments amid rising interest in political and geopolitical event contracts.

Summary

  • Prediction market transactions crossed 191 million in March, with trading volume rising to about $23.9 billion, reflecting a sharp jump from last year.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic events now drive most activity, while crypto-related markets account for a smaller share of overall trading.

According to a report published by TRM Labs, the prediction market sector has expanded rapidly as Google Finance integrations and increased visibility of live odds across mainstream media.

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events by buying and selling contracts tied to real-world developments.

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These markets are now being “increasingly used as real-time indicators of geopolitical and macroeconomic events,” TRM Labs said, adding that their growth has been supported by improved accessibility, evolving regulatory clarity, and integration with mainstream platforms.

Data from Dune Analytics shows that the total number of transactions hit over 191 million in March so far, marking an increase of more than 2,800% from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, monthly notional trading volume stood at roughly $23.9 billion in March, up from $1.9 billion at the same time last year, but still below January’s all-time high by about 12%.

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Monthly unique wallets also tripled to around 840,000 by February 2026, a trend that reflects what TRM described as “a broad expansion of the participant base,” rather than just larger bets from existing users.

Much of this activity is being driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic developments, according to TRM Labs, which now dominate trading volumes across platforms.

“Crypto-native topics, while prevalent, now represent a smaller share of overall activity,” the report added.

On Polymarket, the highest-volume contracts as of Monday were centered on U.S. political outcomes, including party nominations for the 2028 presidential race, and geopolitical questions such as whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office through year-end.

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Growth in the sector has been accompanied by increased scrutiny, with Kalshi and Polymarket facing concerns tied to insider trading and compliance with state gambling laws.

Several U.S. states have launched enforcement actions, arguing that certain event-based contracts resemble unlicensed betting products under local regulations.

How platforms navigate these regulatory challenges and concerns around market integrity will shape the future growth of the sector, according to TRM Labs.

Polymarket and Kalshi have already announced measures to introduce trading guardrails and strengthen market integrity, but the broader regulatory outlook remains unresolved for now.

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Crypto World

DeFi Tokens Face Pressure as CLARITY Act Targets Stablecoin Yields

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Proposed legislation would prohibit stablecoins from generating yields, limiting them to payment functions exclusively
  • The change would redirect yield opportunities toward traditional banking and money market instruments
  • Popular DeFi platforms including Uniswap, Aave, and Compound may encounter stricter regulations on value distribution
  • Trading volumes, liquidity depth, and token demand across DeFi could decline significantly
  • Regulated stablecoin issuers like Circle stand to gain from tighter integration with payment systems

The most recent iteration of the CLARITY Act has sparked significant discussion around its stablecoin provisions. Industry experts warn that decentralized finance tokens may bear the brunt of the legislation’s consequences.

Under the proposed framework, stablecoins would be prohibited from providing yields or any similar incentive structures, including balance-based rewards. This restriction would fundamentally transform stablecoins into payment instruments rather than blockchain-based savings vehicles.

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Markus Thielen, who established 10x Research, indicated that the legislation would effectively channel yield opportunities back into conventional financial systems. Traditional banks, money market vehicles, and compliant financial products would capture these benefits, while cryptocurrency-native services would lose competitive advantage in offering returns.

Initial speculation suggested that DeFi platforms might actually attract more users if centralized crypto services were prevented from distributing yields. The theory presumed capital would migrate toward onchain alternatives.

However, Thielen challenged this assumption. He explained that the CLARITY regulatory structure would probably apply to user-facing platforms and token economics, especially when fee structures or governance mechanisms begin resembling equity instruments.

Potential Impact on DeFi Platforms

This regulatory approach places numerous DeFi initiatives under scrutiny. Decentralized trading venues and lending services may encounter fresh restrictions governing their operations and value distribution mechanisms.

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Platforms such as Uniswap, Sushi, and dYdX face potential consequences, alongside lending services like Aave and Compound. Enhanced regulatory oversight might trigger diminished trading activity, thinner liquidity pools, and decreased token valuations, the 10x Research analysis suggests.

The fundamental question centers on whether these platforms can maintain fee distribution or incentive programs for token holders without triggering new stablecoin-focused regulations.

Thielen observed that distinguishing between governance tokens and regulated financial instruments grows increasingly complex within this regulatory framework.

Circle Positioned for Potential Gains

The legislation wouldn’t create obstacles for every cryptocurrency entity. Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, might emerge as a beneficiary under the proposed rules.

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Thielen characterized the regulation as fundamentally favorable for infrastructure providers like Circle. Should stablecoins become embedded within payment networks, issuers maintaining robust regulatory compliance would secure advantageous positions.

The CLARITY Act continues advancing through the legislative pipeline. Congress has not yet enacted a final version.

While stablecoin provisions dominate policy discussions in Washington, industry analysts emphasize that the ripple effects across DeFi ecosystems deserve equal attention.

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White House App Sparks Privacy Fears Over Tracking and Data Collection

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Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications

A new app from the US government has sparked concerns among users and researchers over potential location-tracking features, security vulnerabilities and data collection.

The White House launched the app on Friday as a way for users to get a “direct line to the White House,” including receiving breaking news alerts on major government announcements, watching livestreams and keeping up to date on “policy breakthroughs.”

However, users on X have raised concerns about the permissions required to use the app, including access to the device’s location, shared storage and network activity, though these claims have not been independently verified.

While many apps often request location permissions and can log user data, an app launched by the federal government requesting this information can invite additional concerns. 

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However, both listings on the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store currently do not display these warnings.

A White House app privacy policy said it automatically stores information about the originating Internet Protocol (IP) address and other basic information, while it can retain names and email addresses of subscribers, though these are not required to use the app.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Tyler Oakley

Cointelegraph has contacted the White House for comment.

Security engineer says GPS tracking is part of the app

On the app’s Google Play Store page, it states that personal data, including phone numbers and email addresses, may be collected through download and use. Apple’s App Store, meanwhile, directs users to the White House’s privacy policy.

A software developer using the X handle Thereallo, along with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, say they have identified code suggesting the app could access a device’s GPS for tracking.

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While the feature is common across a number of apps, Adam said it is unusual for location-tracking services to be in software that does not appear to need them.

“There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he added.

Concerns of GPS tracking every 4.5 minutes

Thereallo made a similar claim that the app includes code that could enable tracking a device every 4.5 minutes in the foreground and 9.5 minutes in the background, though this has not been independently verified.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Thereallo

They found that it still requires permission but warned that it is only “one call away from activating,” and that the tracking “infrastructure is there, ready to go.”

Related: Trump advisory council draws Coinbase co-founder, tech leaders

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At the same time, Thereallo said the app is collecting other data such as notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone number.

Security could be broken, researcher says

Adam said the app’s security may also be weak enough for a technically skilled person to intercept its data or alter its functionality

“Anyone on the same Wi-Fi network, say, at a coffee shop, an airport, or a congressional hearing room, can intercept API traffic with a proxy. Anyone with a jailbroken device can hook and modify the app’s behavior at runtime,” he said.

“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

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