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Reasons behind the crypto crash with Trump as President and Paul Atkins at the SEC

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

The crypto crash has unfolded under Donald Trump as the president and Paul Atkins as the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Summary

  • The crypto market crash has happened under Donald Trump as President.
  • It also tumbled despite the friendly regulations under Paul Atkins.
  • Trump’s second term has been characterized by uncertainty, especially on trade.

Crypto crash has happened under Donald Trump 

Bitcoin (BTC) has already erased all the gains made during the Trump presidency and is now trading at its lowest level since October 2024. Altcoins have done worse, with some notable names like Shiba Inu and Cardano hovering near their lowest levels in 2022.

The ongoing crypto crash is ironic as the industry has some major tailwinds. President Trump is the most friendly president for the industry, while Paul Atkins has embraced a different approach than Gary Gensler. 

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For example, Gary Gensler ended the lawsuits against top companies like Coinbase, Uniswap, and Ripple. He also embraced a more friendly approach, including not launching any lawsuits.

Washington has also enacted some friendly regulations. It passed the GENIUS Act last year, and is now working on the CLARITY Act that will separate SEC and CFTC duties.

There are a few reasons behind the crypto market crash under Trump. Analysts cite the launch of the Official Trump meme coin as a major risk in the industry as it drained vast liquidity. The meme coin initially jumped to $50 and then plunged to below $5.

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At the same time, geopolitical risks have remained elevated under Trump. It started with his global tariffs to the current war in Iran that has pushed crude oil prices to the highest level in years.

His tariffs disrupted the falling inflation and pushed the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its monetary policy. This trend may continue in the foreseeable future as inflation is expected to rise now that the crude oil and natural gas prices have jumped by over 50% this year amid the war in Iran.

Deleveraging after the huge liquidation event in October 

Crypto prices have also crashed amid his ongoing deleveraging among investors, especially after the major liquidation event that happened on October 10 last year when over 1.6 million traders were wiped out. 

Over $20 billion was lost on that day. Since then, the futures open interest has tumbled to below $100 billion, while the weighted funding rate has largely moved sideways. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained in the red in the past few months.

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The crypto crash also happened because of the gridlock in Washington about the CLARITY Act, which has stalled in the past few months. This gridlock started when Coinbase withdrew its support, citing the view that the bill made it almost impossible for crypto companies to pay stablecoin rewards. 

Banks and credit unions have argued that allowing these companies to offer rewards will drain funds from their institutions, which will affect the broader economy.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain $67K, Pi Network’s PI Plunges After Recent Rally: Weekend Watch

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView


PI has erased much of the recent gains, but still trades around $0.20.

Bitcoin’s underwhelming price moves over the weekend continued as the asset dipped below $67,000 earlier today for the first time since Tuesday.

Most altcoins are also in the red today, with ETH slipping further away from the coveted $2,000 level, while ADA and XMR are down by over 2%. ZEC and PI have dumped the most daily.

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BTC Fights for $67K

Last weekend brought intense volatility for the crypto markets after the US and Israel attacked Iran. BTC dropped immediately from $67,000 to $63,000 but rebounded within the day to $68,000 after reports that the Iranian Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

The gains continued by the middle of the business week when bitcoin peaked at $74,000, a level not seen in a month. However, the bears stepped up at this moment and didn’t allow for any further increases.

Just the opposite; BTC started to lose value but dumped the most on Friday after a weak US jobs report and Trump’s latest threats and remarks on Iran and Cuba. It slipped further on Sunday, dipping to $66,600, which became its lowest level since Tuesday. However, it reacted well and now trades almost a grand higher.

As of now, BTC’s market cap has settled at $1.350 trillion, while its dominance over the alts sits quietly at 56.6% on CG.

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BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 8. Source: TradingView

PI Nosedives

Pi Network’s native token defied the overall market correction in the past few days, skyrocketing to a three-month peak of over $0.23 yesterday. However, it failed there, and the subsequent rejection has pushed it south hard to $0.20 as of press time. ZEC follows suit in terms of daily losses and now struggles below $200.

Most larger-cap alts are also in the red, but in a less painful manner. ETH has decisively broken below the $2,000 level after another minor decline, while BNB is down to $620. SOL, XRP, ADA, XMR, and LINK are also down today.

The total crypto market cap has shed around $30 billion daily and is below $2.4 trillion as of now on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Mar 8. Source: QuantifyCrypto

 

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Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

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Bitcoin Sell-off To $65K Likely As Traders Run From Global Risks

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin faced pressure as rising oil prices and weak US data sparked risk-off sentiment and drove investors to gold.

  • A redemption spike in private credit funds from BlackRock and Blackstone signaled growing anxiety among retail investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 7% correction between Thursday and Friday following a failed attempt to reclaim the $74,000 level. The pullback tracked weak US macroeconomic data and a spike in oil prices as the US and Israel-Iran war entered its seventh day. Traders now question whether Bitcoin can maintain support above $65,000.

Typically, deteriorating economic conditions pave the way for monetary stimulus, often boosting the stock market in anticipation of increased liquidity. However, this cycle saw the S&P 500 retreat as a generalized risk-off sentiment erased all of Bitcoin’s gains from Wednesday. 

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

US retail sales fell 0.2% in January compared to the previous month, while the US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Despite the cooling labor market, investors lack confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, as rising energy costs typically generate inflationary pressure. 

Fed target rate probabilities for April 2026 FOMC. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

US Treasury markets currently price a 78% probability that interest rates will remain steady between 3.5% and 3.75% through late April. A flight to safety pattern emerged as gold surged while the Russell 2000 Small Capitalization index hit a two-month low. Bitcoin’s drop below $85,000 in late January hindered its reputation as an uncorrelated asset, especially as silver rose to become the second most valuable asset.

Largest tradable assets by market capitalization, USD. Source: 8marketcap

Traders also fear a wave of corporate layoffs driven by artificial intelligence automation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that AI is increasingly filling roles that once required manual labor. Schmid added that “older Americans are retiring,” causing a real-time structural change in the labor market, according to Yahoo Finance.

War and credit strain weigh on Bitcoin’s outlook

A prolonged war suggests increased US government spending, reducing the fiscal capacity for monetary stimulus aimed at economic expansion. Investors increasingly fear rising logistics costs beyond the commodities sector. Shipping giant Maersk announced on Friday the temporary suspension of two routes connecting the Middle East to Asia and Europe.

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Bitcoin’s retest of the $68,000 level on Friday indicates that technical resistance levels identified by analysts may be secondary to geopolitical events impacting the oil and energy industries and, by extension, global growth prospects. The current weakness in risk assets appears to be a reflection of poor macroeconomic visibility rather than a structural collapse.

Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’

ICE Bank of America US high yield index option-adjusted spread. Source: TradingView

A potential deterioration in trader expectations could originate within the US private credit market. BlackRock reportedly limited withdrawals from one of its largest credit funds following a spike in redemption requests, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday. Earlier this week, Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund fulfilled requests to tender a record 7.9% of shares, signaling rising retail anxiety.

Currently, the 3% option-adjusted spread for riskier firms is hovering within the normal range seen over the last six months. Periods of significant economic turmoil typically push this indicator above 5.0%, a level last seen in March 2023. As a result, there is no clear sign that Bitcoin will break below $65,000, even with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth.