Meta just delivered a genuinely strange quarter: revenue beat, earnings missed, and the market couldn’t quite decide how to feel about it. Q2 revenue came in at $60.8 billion, above the $60.22 billion consensus and up 28% year-over-year, yet EPS landed at $6.18 against $7.19 expected, sending shares down roughly 3.4% in the immediate aftermath.

The real story sits beneath the headline numbers. Free cash flow collapsed 91% year-over-year to just $784 million, a direct consequence of Zuckerberg’s aggressive AI buildout, with capex alone hitting $31.1 billion in the quarter as part of a planned $130-145 billion for the full year. The company is betting big on what it calls “personal superintelligence,” recently launching new Muse AI models to back that ambition, while its Family of Apps still reached 3.6 billion daily active people in June, proof the core business remains formidable.

Adding to the pressure, fresh privacy scrutiny in Europe and mounting US legal challenges around youth safety have kept sentiment cautious. With shares down roughly 11% year-to-date and trading well below their 52-week high near $796, the market is clearly still weighing whether this AI bet will pay off.

Technical Analysis of Meta Platforms

As the daily chart shows, META has been trading within a broader descending trendline since January’s highs near $740, with price recently rebounding sharply off the post-earnings low near $524.75 before running into a wall of resistance at the confluence of the 200-day EMA, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $622.96, and the descending trendline itself around $600. That rejection has since pulled price back toward the 0.382 retracement near $585.46.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the 0.382 support and stage another push higher, the real test remains that same trendline-EMA-Fibonacci confluence near $605-$625. A confirmed break above this zone would be a genuinely significant technical shift, opening the path toward the 0.786 retracement near $649.66, and eventually the 1.0 level at $683.67.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the 0.382 support at $585.46 would signal renewed weakness, exposing the 0.5 retracement near $604 as a lesser hurdle already cleared, but more importantly risking a full retest of the $524.75 low that marked the post-earnings capitulation.

With price wedged between a defended support and a stubborn multi-month trendline, META’s next move looks set to determine whether this rebound has real legs, or whether the broader downtrend since January is still very much in control.

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Bitcoin (BTC) recent buyers are the latest hurdle to a breakout from a stubborn trading range in place since June.

Key points:

1. Bitcoin short-term holders are keen to sell into range highs as they seek to break even on their investment.
2. BTC price action remains stuck in its near three-month range as a result, Glassnode suggests.
3. Nearly 9% of the BTC supply has a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000.

Bitcoin short-term holders seeking breakeven exit

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, crypto analytics platform Glassnode highlighted the ongoing significance of Bitcoin’s speculative investor base.

Short-term holders (STHs) — those holding BTC acquired within the past six months — are currently around 7.2% underwater on their investment in aggregate. The cohort’s cost basis, also known as realized price, which Glassnode calculates at $68,700, thus forms a key resistance level to clear.

“The cost-basis ladder frames the stalemate. Spot sits just above the Median Realized Price at $63.0K, the level that splits every coin’s cost basis down the middle, and below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68.7K, the average entry of the market’s most recent buyers,” it wrote. 

“That cohort is underwater, which historically makes it quick to sell into recoveries, while the median level has absorbed every test from above for more than a month.”

Bitcoin realized price data. Source: Glassnode

BTC/USD has been wedged in a narrow range between $58,000 and $68,000 since the start of June. As Cointelegraph reported, a separate battle between buyers and sellers continues within that range, with a 50-month trend line near $65,800 now keeping price even more constricted. Analysis sees this as a classic phenomenon during Bitcoin bear markets, with a downside resolution increasingly likely.

This week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital additionally warned that $63,000 was weakening as local support, with price gaining progressively less ground with each rebound from that level.

BTC supply dynamics add weight to current spot range

Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, noted that a significant portion of the BTC supply has moved onchain during the range-bound period.

Related: Bitcoin miners earn under 0.7% of revenue from fees in new 10-year low

“The reason the boundaries are so stubborn is due to ownership. The $62,000-$65,000 band holds 1,794,308 BTC at this cost basis, 8.93% of circulating supply per the UTXO Realised Price Distribution (URPD), with the largest holdings at ~$63,800,” it reported on Wednesday.

URPD records the price at which coins last moved onchain, with the 1.79 million BTC tranche equal to approximately 8.9% of the total circulating supply.

“With price trading inside this band, the largest concentration of holders across any narrow $3,000 range keeps moving between profit and loss and a large volume of coins changes hands as a result,” Bitfinex added.

Immediately above the current STH cost basis lies another psychologically significant level — Bitcoin’s old all-time high of $69,400 from November 2021. 

Bitcoin URPD chart. Source: Bitfinex Alpha

Bitcoin (BTC) long positions are “facing liquidation” as volatility shows signs that a range breakout is finally coming.

Key points:

• Bitcoin long positions face multiple threats as BTC price action heads toward new August lows, analyst warns.
• The correlation between Binance open interest and price reached 0.25 on Thursday as both fell.
• The Bitcoin bull market is not ready to make a comeback, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says.

Bitcoin longs feel the squeeze as price drops

Insights published on onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant by community analyst “BorisD on Thursday said that leveraged long BTC positions are being flushed out as BTC/USD targets month-to-date lows.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The analysis focuses on the relationship between price and open interest (OI) on Binance. OI represents total active derivative positions, both long and short, and reflects capital commitment in a given market. 

While price has traded in a narrow range since June, CryptoQuant data show that Binance OI has gradually increased, reaching $8.15 billion on Wednesday as futures increasingly steer the market while spot traders sit on the sidelines. 

Bitcoin open interest on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

With price now seeing downside volatility on lower time frames, the correlation between price and OI has entered a state of flux, potentially squeezing long positions that have built up in the low $60,000 zone.

“In the Bitcoin market, the Binance Open Interest (OI) Correlation and liquidation warning signals clearly reveal the process of leveraged positions being flushed out. Initially, as the price fell, the correlation shifted to the negative side, indicating that OI was rising despite declining prices,” the analyst wrote.

“This showed a double-sided squeeze and [an] increasingly complex liquidity structure — driven by long positions trying to buy the dip on one end, and additional short positions entering the market on the other.”

BTC/USD vs. Binance OI data. Source: CryptoQuant

The latest correlation data showed a reading of 0.25, a number that the analyst said reflects declining long positions as price continues to fall, suggesting the “anticipated cleanout has begun.”

“The simultaneous drop in both price and OI indicates that leveraged long positions are giving up, getting stopped out, or facing liquidation,” the analyst continued.

Data from CoinGlass put total 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at $236 million at the time of writing.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

CryptoQuant CEO: “Stars haven’t aligned” for Bitcoin bull market

In his latest market commentary, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said conditions for a renewed Bitcoin bull market have yet to emerge.

Related: Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode

“The stars haven’t aligned for a Bitcoin bull run just yet,” he wrote on X alongside a basket of onchain indicators still in “bear” territory.

Bitcoin onchain indicator heatmap. Source: Ki Young Ju on X.com

Cointelegraph has previously reported on several composite onchain indicators reaching similar conclusions about the current stage of the BTC price cycle. One of them, from onchain analytics platform Glassnode, is currently in its longest “capitulation” phase since the end of Bitcoin’s last bear market in 2022.

Bitcoin price has fallen 2% from $63,895 to an intraday low of $62,667 on Aug. 14 as spot selling, a $125 million whale short, and weak derivatives demand pushed the price toward a key support zone.

Bitcoin price action today points to seller control

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading near $62,772 at the time of writing, down 1.13% since the daily open at $63,491. The price had reached a session high of $63,617 before falling as low as $62,700 on Binance.

Measured from an earlier intraday level of $63,895 to the low near $62,667, the decline reached roughly 2%. The move broke the psychological $63,000 level and placed Bitcoin just above the lower daily Bollinger Band at $62,507.

Bitcoin has remained trapped in a relatively narrow range since early July, with buyers repeatedly appearing near $62,000 and sellers limiting rallies between $65,000 and $66,000. The latest decline followed another rejection from the upper part of that range, extending a series of lower highs visible since the July 21 peak near $66,700.

The daily Bollinger Band midpoint now stands at $63,992. Trading below that level places the immediate advantage with sellers, while the upper band at $65,476 defines the next major resistance area if buyers recover.

Aroon data also showed a bearish imbalance. The Aroon Down reading stood at 64.29%, compared with an Aroon Up reading of 7.14%, indicating that a recent low carries more weight than any recent high.

What is driving the Bitcoin decline?

On-chain analyst Ai Yi reported that a large trader added 258 BTC to an existing short position, lifting the trade to 1,900 BTC with an average entry price of $63,582. The position was worth about $125 million and carried an unrealized profit of approximately $1.79 million at the time of the update.

The short does not prove that one trader caused the entire decline. However, the position added to bearish derivatives exposure while Bitcoin was already losing short-term support. Selling below $63,000 then placed pressure on leveraged buyers whose trades depended on the level holding.

Institutional demand has also weakened. According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded two consecutive sessions of net withdrawals totaling $192 million. Reduced ETF demand removed one source of buying that could absorb coins sold during volatile sessions.

Strategy added to the cautious mood earlier in the week when it disclosed the sale of 1,690 BTC for nearly $109 million. The company used the proceeds to repurchase preferred stock after going seven weeks without adding Bitcoin to its treasury. The disposal was Strategy’s fourth Bitcoin sale since June.

Outside crypto, higher oil prices and elevated bond yields kept pressure on risk assets. Brent crude traded above $87 as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about energy supplies, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near 4.66%. Higher Treasury yields can reduce demand for assets such as Bitcoin because government debt offers investors a yield without the same level of price volatility.

Softer U.S. wholesale inflation provided limited support. July’s headline Producer Price Index was unchanged, while core PPI increased 0.2%, according to Charles Schwab. Bitcoin still lagged U.S. equities, showing that crypto-specific selling and weak market liquidity outweighed the immediate benefit of the inflation data.

Bitcoin faces support at $62,200–$62,500

The 4-hour chart confirmed that short-term momentum remains bearish. Bitcoin traded below the 4-hour Supertrend level at $64,094, which has acted as resistance since the price lost the indicator on Aug. 10.

Chaikin Money Flow stood at -0.08 on the same timeframe. A reading below zero indicates that selling volume has outweighed buying volume over the indicator’s 20-period window, supporting the weakness shown by the price.

Immediate support sits between $62,500 and $62,700, combining the daily lower Bollinger Band with the latest intraday low. A close below that region would place $62,200–$62,300 in focus, followed by the round-number support at $62,000.

The one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap showed a concentration of leveraged positions around $62,200. A fall into that area could trigger another group of long liquidations, although the same liquidity zone may attract buyers after leveraged positions are cleared.

Below $62,000, the next visible liquidity bands appear near $61,500 and $60,300. The lower level also sits close to the bottom of the wider range that formed after Bitcoin’s sharp decline in early June.

For a recovery, Bitcoin must first reclaim $63,500–$64,100. The range includes the whale’s average short entry, the daily Bollinger midpoint, and the 4-hour Supertrend resistance.

A sustained break above $64,100 could expose short positions and pull the price toward liquidation clusters at $64,500–$64,700. Additional liquidity appears near $65,700–$66,000, close to the upper daily Bollinger Band and several previous August highs.

Analysts see $61,500 if the trendline fails

Crypto analyst Gerla said Bitcoin remained compressed inside a multi-week triangle formed by lower highs and a rising support line. According to the analyst, recovering $63,500–$64,000 would bring $65,000 back into play, while losing the lower trendline could send the price toward $61,500.

Gerla leaned toward a downside break because the trading range was tightening while volume declined. Lower volume near the apex of a triangle often precedes a larger move, but the pattern does not determine which side will break first.

Analyst Lennaert Snyder separately said Bitcoin had broken below a $63,900 momentum level and was testing the previous day’s low around $62,800. Snyder identified the prior weekly low near $62,300 as the next downside target if $62,800 fails.

Snyder also noted that the U.S. Dollar Index was weak while Bitcoin continued to fall. Because a weaker dollar can normally support dollar-denominated risk assets, Bitcoin’s inability to benefit indicated weak demand within the crypto market, according to the analyst.

Weekend trading adds another risk in both directions. Thinner order books can make Bitcoin more sensitive to large trades, potentially allowing a move through $62,200 or $64,100 to travel quickly toward the next liquidation cluster.

Bitcoin BTC$62,880.24 dropped below $63,000, losing 1.14% since midnight UTC as a second day of outflows from spot exchange-traded funds and a lack of bullish catalysts weighed on the crypto market.

Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced the first back-to-back days of outflows since late July with $192 million exiting the products, according to SoSoValue.

The largest cryptocurrency is now trading at its lowest point since Aug. 3 having wiped out all of last week’s rally. Ether ETH$1,875.59 is down by 0.73% since midnight, while a portion of the altcoin market continues to show resilience, outperforming crypto majors.

U.S. equities were boosted on Thursday by producer price inflation data, which cooled to 4.7%, below forecasts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both rallied following the report, and futures on the indexes remain marginally in the black.

Derivatives positioning

• Futures churn continues: While the crypto market is under pressure, the long-short taker ratio in futures remains balanced, with longs accounting for half of the flow. 24-hour volume growth is again outpacing open interest (OI) growth by a wide margin. That’s a sign of churn rather than fresh positioning.
• BCH sees heaviest fresh shorting: Futures tied to Bitcoin Cash BCH$205.55 are the biggest OI gainer of the past 24 hours, adding 10% to 1.64 million tokens as the spot price drops 3%. That combination points to short positions being built up. Deeply negative annualized funding rates support that interpretation. The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) is negative too, signaling that shorts are trading more aggressively via market orders rather than passive limit orders. Together, these signals point to positioning for a deeper selloff in the token.
• BTC OI rises alongside falling price: Bitcoin is another OI gainer, with the tally rising over 3% to 765,000 BTC alongside a negative CVD. Annualized funding rates, however, still hold mildly positive.
• HBAR shows the clearest bearish tilt: The token’s 24-hour CVD is the most negative among the top 25 coins, with funding rates around -20%, pointing to a market clearly dominated by bears. More broadly, all the top 25 are showing negative CVD.
• Bitcoin volatility cools: BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, fell back below 36%, erasing a spike to nearly 39% earlier this week. That points to continued investor interest in overwriting strategies — approaches aimed at generating extra yield on top of spot holdings. Ether’s equivalent index, EVIV, is showing the same pattern.
• Options positioning stays mixed: On Deribit, BTC calls at the $70,000, $69,000 and $67,000 strikes rank among the five most-traded bets. For ETH, puts at the $1,700 and $1,780 strikes ranked higher instead.

Token talk

• Ether.fi (ETHFI) is the standout performer over the past 24 hours, rallying by 11.5% after adding tokenized stocks and DeFi loans to its neobank platform. The token gave back some of the gains on Friday, dropping 3.3%.
• Cosmos ATOM$1.5386 also experienced upside. The token surged by more than 10% in 24 hours and trading volume jumped by 232% to $51 million despite the absence of a clear news catalyst.
• Fetch.ai FET$0.1361 and monero (XMR) extended their positive weeks, rising 0.55% and 0.81%, respectively, since midnight UTC.
• NEAR, MORPHO, TAO and JUP all lost around 2% since midnight as cautious sentiment remains the dominant theme across the crypto market.