Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Relative-Value Strategies Beat Directional Bets as Crypto Volatility Bites

Published

on

3 Things That Could Impact Crypto and Bitcoin Prices This Week


Crypto funds shifted to market-neutral trades as volatility punished directional bets and triggered a fourth straight month of losses.

Crypto funds opened 2026 with losses and defensive positioning, according to a February 18 survey by Presto Research and Otos Data.

The report shows investors shifting toward relative-value and market-neutral trades as macro uncertainty and price swings weigh on directional bets.

Advertisement

Market-Neutral Funds Outperform as Directional Strategies Sink

According to Presto’s survey, all liquid crypto hedge funds dipped by an average of 1.49% last month. The losses extended a difficult stretch for active managers, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative equally weighted performance across both fundamental and quantitative categories, a sequence not seen since late 2018 and early 2019.

The dispersion within the numbers tells a clearer story, with fundamental funds dropping 3.01% in January, while quantitative funds fell 3.51%. On the other hand, Presto revealed that market-neutral funds, which aim to profit from price differences rather than market direction, gained about 1.6%. Over six months, those same neutral strategies are up nearly 5% while fundamental funds are down more than 24%.

During that same period, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen approximately 31%, Ethereum (ETH) 23%, and Solana (SOL) 47%.

Analysis by other market watchers supports the fragile tone, with data from Alphractal showing that Bitcoin was trading in a stress zone where weaker holders tend to sell while long-term investors accumulate. The firm’s founder, Joao Wedson, said long-term holder profit levels are still positive, a sign the market may not yet be at a final turning point.

Advertisement

Positioning Data Points to Defensive Posture, Not Panic

The Presto survey’s flow analysis shows a clear behavioral arc through January. The month opened with constructive positioning and call buying, but as rallies failed, traders rotated into tactical fade structures. By the third week, downside hedging became dominant, as ETF flows fluctuated, with periods of inflow offset by miner distribution and whale selling. Meanwhile, corporate accumulation remained present but insufficient to offset broader risk reduction.

You may also like:

Importantly, the report noted that positioning into the month-end was not outright capitulative. The analysts stated that while protection was in place, the leverage looked more orderly compared to the chaotic reset event in October 2025.

The absence of broad panic suggests that stress is building in pockets rather than being expressed as systemic liquidation. This distinction matters as the market assesses whether January represents continuation or exhaustion.

The researchers advised that until policy clarity improves or a structural crypto-specific catalyst emerges, rallies are likely to fade, volatility will stay reactive to headline risk, and adaptability rather than conviction will determine survival in the first quarter of 2026.

Advertisement

Whether January marked a continuation of the bear trend or the exhaustion phase of selling pressure remains an open question. However, at present, the data indicate that strategies that prioritize relative value over directional conviction are successfully navigating the current challenges.

SPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)

SECRET PARTNERSHIP BONUS for CryptoPotato readers: Use this link to register and unlock $1,500 in exclusive BingX Exchange rewards (limited time offer).

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Bitcoin Rally To $75K Still Possible Despite Huge Macro Challenges

Published

on

Bitcoin Rally To $75K Still Possible Despite Huge Macro Challenges

Key takeaways:

  • Private credit risks and weak US jobs market data drive Bitcoin lower, but is there a silver lining?

  • Institutional Bitcoin ETF outflows and miner sales test BTC’s strength, but the Federal Reserve’s options for addressing the federal deficit may also favor scarce assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced rejection at $69,000 on Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s speech failed to guarantee an end to the war in Iran. Oil prices soared following the speech and beyond traders’ war-related worries, tumult in the private credit markets is also taking a toll on investor confidence across multiple markets.

While Bitcoin has successfully defended the $66,000 level throughout the week, traders remain concerned about downside risk over the upcoming weekend, as US and European markets will be closed on Friday for Easter.

Crude WTI oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The threat of additional US-led military action in Iran caused WTI crude oil prices to rally above $110, triggering a move away from risky assets. Traders chose to cut their exposure to Bitcoin and stocks as the US Treasury Department expressed concerns regarding the $2 trillion private credit markets on Wednesday. Domestic and international insurance regulators will be surveyed through early May.

Private credit markets sound the alarm: Will BTC respond?

Blue Owl, a $307 billion alternative asset manager, announced “extraordinary redemption requests” for two of its private credit funds in shareholder letters issued Thursday. Over 70% of the companies Blue Owl lends to are in the software industry, as reported during a quarterly earnings call. The fund manager capped withdrawal requests at 5%, adding fresh concerns to the credit market.

Advertisement

Adding to the short-term bearish sentiment among traders was a surge in US continuing jobless claims, which rose to 1.84 million for the week ending March 21, up from 1.82 million the week prior. This data is not inherently negative for equities; however, as the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted, most layoffs originated from companies “shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs.”

US federal gross debt, USD trillions (left) vs. percentage of GDP (right). Source: crfb.org

The odds of economic stimulus initiatives amid weakening economic activity could ultimately support Bitcoin’s price in the medium term. The US federal deficit is expected to reach a massive $1.9 trillion in 2026, leaving little room to maneuver other than injecting liquidity, which tends to benefit scarce assets.

An improvement in the risk perception of Bitcoin will be decisive for a potential rally above $75,000. There has been a considerable negative impact from net outflows from US-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the liquidation of positions held by companies that previously focused on building corporate reserves, and the unwinding by publicly listed miners.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen $450 million in net outflows since March 24, which serves as a proxy for weak institutional demand. Traders fear further selling pressure because the industry holds $88 billion in Bitcoin under management, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT US) leading at $53.9 billion. However, these outflows should slow if Bitcoin continues to show strength near $66,000.

Related: Bitcoin hits weekly low on oil fears as analyst teases $10K BTC price target

MARA Holdings (MARA US) announced the sale of 15,133 BTC in March at a price far below the company’s estimated cost basis. Meanwhile, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reportedly transferred 500 BTC for sale on Wednesday. Additionally, Nakamoto Holdings (NAKA US) disclosed a sale of 284 BTC, despite having previously announced its intention to continue accumulating the asset.

Advertisement

As long as companies such as Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (MTPLF US) continue to absorb some of this selling pressure, investors will likely recognize that Bitcoin serves as a safeguard against increasing money supply. Governments will do everything possible to avoid a recession, raising the odds that Bitcoin’s path to $75,000 stays firmly in play despite worsening macroeconomic conditions.