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Revival to $80K or Brutal Crash Below $30K?

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BTC MVRV


“Are you actually prepared for the longest bear market in history,” one analyst asked.

Bitcoin bears have been in control lately, with the asset trading well below last year’s peak levels.

The question now is whether BTC can stage a decisive comeback or if a new painful pullback is on the way.

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The Bullish Scenario

The primary cryptocurrency started the month on the wrong foot, with the correction intensifying on February 6 when it plummeted to around $60K, the lowest point since October 2024. In the following days, it reclaimed some lost ground and currently trades at approximately $68,200 (per CoinGecko’s data).

One person touching upon the most recent price dynamics of BTC is the popular analyst Ali Martinez. He assumed that the asset appears to have formed an “Adam & Eve” pattern, in which a break above $71,500 could trigger an additional pump to $79,000.

The bullish setup consists of two bottoms: a sharp drop (Adam) followed by a rounder one (Eve). Some traders see it as a sign that selling pressure is fading and that the price may post a substantial short-term revival.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) supports the bullish outlook. The index compares the current value of all BTC to the price people initially paid to acquire their holdings. High ratios mean that investors are sitting on big profits and could increase selling pressure, whereas low readings might be interpreted as the end of the bear market.

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Over the past few weeks, the MVRV has been steadily declining and now sits near 1.25. According to CryptoQuant, ratios above 3.7 indicate a price top, while values under 1 hint that the bottom could have been reached.

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BTC MVRV
BTC MVRV, Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also worth observing. The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and provides traders with indications of potential reversal points. It ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 30 seen as buying opportunities and suggesting that BTC may be oversold. On the contrary, ratios above 70 are generally considered a warning of a possible pullback. The RSI has fallen to 28 on a weekly scale.

BTC RSIBTC RSI
BTC RSI, Source: CryptoWaves

The Bear Phase Is Just Starting?

Other analysts, including Chiefy, believe another painful decline is the more likely option for BTC in the short term. The X user argued that the asset might be on the verge of a major dump to $29,000 as early as this week and added:

“The final Bull Trap of 2026 is over, and according to this chart, the next crash has already started. Are you actually prepared for the longest bear market in history?”

Meanwhile, BTC balances on centralized exchanges have been climbing in recent weeks. Although this development doesn’t guarantee further downside, it could be interpreted as a bearish sign because it means the number of coins that can be offloaded at any time is increasing.

BTC Exchange Reserve
BTC Exchange Reserve, Source: CryptoQuant
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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Depends on This Single On-Chain Indicator

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Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Depends on This Single On-Chain Indicator


This on-chain metric turning negative has repeatedly meant seller exhaustion and the transition from bear markets to bull cycles.

The cryptocurrency market remained subdued amidst short-term nerves, mixed signals, and no clear direction. Bitcoin also showed limited conviction and was visibly under pressure after shedding over 1% of its value in the last 24 hours.

Data shows BTC’s strongest rallies start only after long-term investors absorb unrealized losses and selling pressure fully exhausts itself.

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Bitcoin Bulls Await

Joao Wedson, co-founder of Alphractal, said Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle has historically begun only after long-term holders move into unrealized losses. According to Wedson, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks the average unrealized gains or losses of the most resilient market participants, currently stands at 0.36. Such a trend indicates that these investors remain in profit.

However, Wedson explained that the important signal appears when this metric turns negative. A negative NUPL means even long-term holders are underwater, a condition that has consistently coincided with periods of extreme market pessimism.

In past cycles, such phases pointed to seller exhaustion and a redistribution of coins toward stronger hands. Wedson noted that this environment has historically represented the final stage of bear markets and preceded the start of a new bull run, which means that major opportunities tend to emerge during periods of market depression rather than at cycle highs.

Low MVRV

Similar conditions are now being flagged by Bitcoin’s valuation indicators. CryptoQuant, for one, found that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered its “Accumulation Zone” for the first time in four years, a move last seen in May 2022.

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According to the analytics firm, the previous instance of MVRV falling into this range was followed by a sharp price correction, as Bitcoin declined roughly 50% from around $30,000 to $15,000. CryptoQuant explained that the Accumulation Zone is defined by MVRV remaining below 1.44 and potentially falling as low as 0.90, levels that historically indicate periods when the crypto asset is undervalued relative to its realized price.

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These conditions typically coincide with high market pessimism and reduced speculative activity. The firm also added that, based on historical patterns, continued periods with MVRV below 1.44 have offered favorable phases for long-term accumulation, even as price volatility and downside risk remain quite high in the short term.

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Bitcoin ‘Fakeouts And Shakeouts’ Liquidate Traders This US Bank Holiday

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Bitcoin 'Fakeouts And Shakeouts' Liquidate Traders This US Bank Holiday

Bitcoin round tripped gains after a spike to $70,000 as liquidity traps began to characterize BTC price action on the US bank holiday.

Bitcoin (BTC) took out long and short positions during Monday as low-volume trading sparked short-term volatility.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin sees low-time frame manipulation clear both longs and shorts on the US bank holiday.

  • BTC price action offers “breakouts and shakeouts” while staying in a narrow range.

  • 2022 bear market comparisons continue, now focused on weekly RSI.

BTC price liquidity squeezes shake out traders

Data from TradingView captured sharp moves within a narrow BTC price range on the US bank holiday which topped out at $70,000.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With Wall Street closed, thinner order books overall made it easier for large-volume entities to influence short-term price action. This resulted in multiple “squeezes” that impacted both longs and shorts.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed $120 million in crypto liquidations for the four hours to the time of writing.

Blocks of bids and asks were cleared on the day, with new “walls” placed immediately above price as it fell, adding to downward pressure.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

“Volatility is much higher which is something that we also see in pretty much all other markets lately. Definitely not a calm period for markets around the world,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented in a post on X.

Bitcoin historical volatility. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Trading resource Material Indicators described the latest BTC price performance as “breakouts and shakeouts.”

An accompanying chart monitored both liquidity and whale activity on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair.

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BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data with whale volume. Source: Material Indicators/X

Trader CW nonetheless observed that buying pressure was more robust than on Sunday, with the exception of exchange OKX.

Bitcoin RSI teases “once per cycle lows”

Continuing on the wider status quo, Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan stressed ongoing resemblances between this year and Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.

Related: $75K or bearish ‘regime shift?’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Relative strength index (RSI) readings on weekly time frames, he said, were pointing to a BTC price bottoming phase.

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“Finding more similarities with 2022 in the $BTC chart as Weekly RSI moves towards what has historically been, once per cycle lows in oversold territory,” he told X followers. 

“In 2015 and 2018 it marked bottom, however in 2022 it led to a 5 month consolidation before establishing a macro bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Keith Alan/X

Weekly RSI measured 27.8 on Monday, marking the lowest reading since June 2022. Readings below 30 are considered “oversold.”

“This doesn’t mean it has to develop the same way this time, but it’s worth watching closely to identify similarities and deviations in the pattern to help with forecasting,” Alan added.