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Crypto World

Ripple wins with JPMorgan, so why is XRP still stuck?

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Ripple, JPMorgan settle a tokenized Treasury on XRPL

Ripple keeps winning. A five-second cross-border Treasury settlement with JPMorgan and Mastercard, ten major deals this year, an IPO the chief executive keeps hinting at. XRP keeps trading near a dollar and change. The gap between the company and the token is the entire story.

Summary

  • Ripple’s institutional wins are real, but they do not always create XRP demand.
  • The JPMorgan Treasury settlement used RLUSD, not XRP, as the cash leg.
  • Ripple equity and XRP remain separate assets with different value drivers.
  • XRP needs utility to become token demand before the price can break its range.

In June 2026, Ripple completed something that should have been a milestone for its token. Working with JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ondo Finance, it settled the redemption of a tokenized United States Treasury fund across borders and across banks on the XRP Ledger, and the blockchain leg finalized in under five seconds, against the one to three business days the same transaction takes on traditional rails.

The participants were real, the speed was real, and the headline wrote itself: Wall Street is settling Treasuries on Ripple’s blockchain. And yet XRP, the token, barely moved, and where it did move it often fell.

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The asset spent most of 2026 trading in a narrow band near a dollar and change, while news exactly like this piled up around it. That disconnect, a company stacking institutional wins while its token goes nowhere, is one of the most instructive puzzles in crypto.

The answer is more revealing than either the bulls or the bears usually admit.

This piece takes the puzzle apart. It covers the settlement that did not move the token and the detail the headlines skipped, the structural separation between Ripple the company and XRP the asset, the supply overhang that quietly weighs on the price, the genuine catalysts XRP does have, and why those catalysts keep getting priced as maybes.

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The aim is to explain, without spin in either direction, why good news for Ripple so often fails to become good news for XRP, and what would actually have to change for the token to break out of its range.

The win that did not move the token

The June settlement was not a small thing. For years the tokenization story has been mostly demonstrations on private chains, so a live, cross-border, cross-bank redemption of a real tokenized Treasury on a public ledger, with JPMorgan’s settlement platform delivering dollars to Ripple’s bank in Singapore in the same flow, is a credibility win for the XRP Ledger.

It connected one of the largest settlement institutions in the world to a public blockchain, outside normal banking hours, in seconds. As a proof that the rails work, it was about as strong as these announcements get.

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That is the settlement broken down in detail. The transaction matters because it shows that regulated institutions are willing to test the XRP Ledger for real-world asset settlement.

The market’s reaction told a different story. XRP did not rally on the news in any durable way, and on the day of an earlier version of the same pilot it actually fell almost 5%, erasing a brief pop.

This was not an anomaly. It fit a pattern that has defined XRP through 2026, where Ripple partnership headlines arrive, the token spikes briefly or not at all, and then drifts back down.

Traders have a weary phrase for it: every Ripple deal seems to be followed by the XRP price dropping. When a genuinely impressive institutional milestone produces a shrug or a selloff, the explanation is rarely that the milestone was fake.

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It is usually that the milestone has less to do with the token than the headline implies.

The detail the headlines skipped: XRP was barely in the trade

Here is the part that reframes everything. In that landmark Treasury settlement, XRP the asset did almost no work.

The bridging and settlement were done with RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, not with XRP. The tokenized Treasury, Ondo’s product, was redeemed by exchanging it for RLUSD, and XRP appeared only as the tiny network fee that every XRP Ledger transaction pays.

Those fees are fractions of a cent on a trade moving far larger sums. The asset that the headlines attached to the news was, in the actual mechanics, a bystander.

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This is not an accident or an oversight; it is by design, and the reason matters. Institutional settlement needs a stable, audited, dollar-denominated instrument, because no treasurer is going to settle a Treasury redemption in an asset that can swing 10% in a day.

RLUSD is built for exactly that role: dollar-pegged, backed by cash and Treasuries, and regulated. XRP’s price volatility rules it out of the settlement leg by definition, which is why Ripple deliberately built the product to use RLUSD as the cash leg.

That is the RLUSD that did the settlement work. It is useful precisely because it is not supposed to move.

So when Ripple wins an institutional settlement deal, the direct beneficiary is the XRP Ledger as infrastructure and RLUSD as the settlement token, while XRP the asset captures only the minuscule fee. The headline says XRP.

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The transaction says RLUSD. The price reflects the transaction.

Ripple the company versus XRP the token

Step back and the deeper issue comes into focus: Ripple the company and XRP the token are not the same thing, and the market has started pricing them separately.

Ripple is a private company that sells software and payment services, signs deals with banks, holds a large treasury, and may one day go public. XRP is a cryptocurrency that trades on its own supply and demand.

Owning XRP does not make you a shareholder in Ripple, does not entitle you to its profits, and does not give you a claim on its corporate success. The two are linked by association and by Ripple’s large XRP holdings, but they are distinct assets with distinct drivers.

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This is why the IPO chatter, which intensified after chief executive Brad Garlinghouse called the moment real ahead of a company event, is more complicated than it sounds for token holders. An initial public offering would let people buy Ripple equity, and it would reward Ripple’s shareholders.

It would not, by itself, pay anything to XRP holders, who own a separate asset.

That is the IPO question for token holders. The most realistic answer is that any benefit would be indirect unless Ripple deliberately created a program for XRP holders, and no such program exists.

Garlinghouse’s strongest argument is an indirect one, and it has genuine merit: because Ripple remains the largest single holder of XRP, the company has a built-in incentive to drive the token’s value, and its partnerships and integrations do plausibly increase XRP’s long-term utility and demand.

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That alignment is real. But it is indirect, a rising tide the company hopes to create, not a dividend it pays, and a holder who treats a possible IPO as a direct reward is counting on a maybe attached to a maybe.

The market’s persistent refusal to rally Ripple’s wins into XRP’s price is, in effect, the market enforcing this distinction.

The supply overhang nobody wants to discuss

There is also a more mechanical weight on the token, and it sits on the supply side.

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Ripple holds an enormous quantity of XRP in escrow, a locked reserve it releases on a schedule, and that release is a structural source of new supply hitting the market. Each month Ripple can release up to one billion XRP from escrow, then re-locks most of it, but the net amount that actually reaches circulation still runs into the hundreds of millions of tokens monthly.

That is a steady stream of potential selling pressure built into the token’s design.

The significance is that it sets a high bar for any bullish supply story. Some XRP optimists point to the tiny fees burned on each ledger transaction as a deflationary force, but at current transaction volumes the burn is a rounding error next to the escrow releases.

For fee burn to tighten supply in any meaningful way, on-chain activity would have to grow by orders of magnitude, enough to offset hundreds of millions of newly released tokens every month. A single institutional settlement test does not move that needle.

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So even when Ripple announces real adoption, a holder has to weigh it against a supply schedule that keeps running on its long-set path. The demand side has to climb a down escalator, and one impressive pilot does not change the speed of the steps.

What XRP actually has going for it

None of this means XRP is a lost cause, and a fair account has to give the bull case its due, because the token’s position has improved in ways that are concrete.

The years-long legal cloud has lifted. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Ripple ended in 2025 with the courts’ finding that XRP sold on public exchanges was not a security, and a later joint classification treated XRP as a digital commodity, giving the token more regulatory clarity than almost any other asset of its size.

That clarity is real and durable, even if it rests partly on interpretation rather than statute.

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The institutional door has also opened. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds launched in late 2025 from a roster of established issuers and pulled in well over a billion dollars in assets, with major institutions appearing among the disclosed holders.

That is where XRP demand is actually coming from. ETF flows are not enough by themselves to erase the supply overhang, but they are measurable demand in a way that partnership headlines are not.

Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, crossed a billion dollars in market value in under a year and is being woven into real settlement and card products. Ripple has also kept expanding its payments footprint, including a Bitso partnership around a regulated MXN-backed stablecoin on XRPL and a Flutterwave investment aimed at expanding RLUSD settlement across African payment corridors.

Those are not trivial supports. They show Ripple pushing both sides of its strategy: the ledger as institutional settlement infrastructure and stablecoins as the cash leg that enterprises actually want to use.

The single biggest potential catalyst is legislative. If the CLARITY Act passes and writes XRP’s digital-commodity status into federal law, analysts have projected several billion dollars of additional XRP ETF inflows.

That is the catalyst that could codify XRP’s status. It is the one event that could turn today’s regulatory interpretation into statutory certainty.

These are the ingredients of a genuine bull case, and they explain why XRP has held a floor rather than collapsing, even as it refuses to break out.

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Why the catalysts keep getting priced as maybes

So the puzzle resolves into a simpler observation: XRP has real catalysts, but the market keeps pricing them as possibilities instead of facts, and there is a logic to that caution.

A proof-of-concept settlement is priced as a proof of concept until it becomes recurring volume. An ETF is priced on the flows it actually attracts, not the flows it might.

A legislative catalyst is priced on the probability of passage, which for the CLARITY Act has hovered well short of certainty as the bill grinds through the Senate. Each of these is a maybe, and a token sitting on a stack of maybes trades like a token sitting on a stack of maybes: range-bound, reactive, and quick to sell the news.

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The pattern of selling Ripple’s wins is the market expressing exactly this. When XRP spiked after its legal victory in 2025, long-term holders used the burst of volume to sell, and the token settled back into its range.

Every subsequent partnership has met a version of the same response, because the partnerships, however real, have not yet produced measurable, sustained demand for the token itself.

The market is not being irrational. It is distinguishing between infrastructure adoption, which benefits Ripple and the ledger, and token demand, which is what actually moves XRP, and it is waiting for proof that the first turns into the second.

What the chart has been saying all year

If you want a blunt summary of everything above, look at what XRP’s price actually did around its biggest catalysts, because the chart has been telling the story in plain language.

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When Ripple’s long legal fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission finally ended in 2025, XRP spiked hard, touching levels far above where it trades now, and then it faded. Long-term holders used the surge of volume and attention to sell into strength, and the token drifted back down through the rest of the year and settled into the narrow range it has occupied for months.

Each subsequent institutional headline produced a smaller version of the same shape: a brief pop, a fade, a return to the range. The 200-day moving average, a common gauge of the longer trend, has sat well above the price for much of the year, which is a technical way of saying the market has been in a patient holding pattern, neither convinced enough to break out nor scared enough to break down.

A second signal is easy to overlook because it points the other way. While Ripple was landing marquee partnerships, the payments company MoneyGram, once one of Ripple’s most-cited real-world users, moved its on-chain settlement work toward a rival blockchain.

One defection does not undo a year of deals, and the strategic damage may be small, but it punctures the simplest version of the bull narrative, the one where every institution that touches Ripple stays forever and compounds XRP demand.

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Adoption is not monotonic. Partners arrive and partners leave, and the network effect that XRP optimists count on is more contested than the announcement cadence suggests.

The chart reflects this ambivalence honestly: a market that has seen real progress and real setbacks, and has priced the token as a thing that might work out, with the proof still pending.

The lesson in the price action is the same lesson the mechanics teach. Markets are forward-looking, and they will pay up in advance for catalysts they believe will convert into demand.

XRP’s refusal to sustain its rallies is the market saying, repeatedly, that it does not yet see the conversion, that the partnerships and pilots have not become the recurring, token-level demand that would justify a rerating.

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That is not a permanent verdict. It is a standing challenge, and the chart will be the first place the answer shows up, long before any press release confirms it.

The bigger pattern: when the network wins and the token waits

XRP’s predicament is not unique, and seeing it as one case of a broader pattern makes the whole situation less mysterious.

Across crypto, there is a recurring gap between the success of a network and the price of the token attached to it. A blockchain can attract real usage, real institutions, and real volume while its native token languishes, because adoption of the infrastructure and demand for the token are two different things that only sometimes move together.

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A network captures value for its token when using the network requires buying, holding, or burning that token in volume large enough to matter against its supply. When the network can be used without much of the token changing hands, the usage and the price decouple, and the token becomes a spectator to its own success.

XRP sits squarely in that trap. The XRP Ledger is being adopted for serious settlement work, but those settlements lean on RLUSD as the cash leg and use only a sliver of XRP as a fee.

So the network’s growth does not pull much demand through to the token. This is the same dynamic that has frustrated holders of other infrastructure tokens whose chains saw heavy use that never translated into proportional token demand.

The token is not useless; it secures the ledger, pays the fees, and provides liquidity. But the volume of XRP that the network’s growth actually requires is small relative to the token’s large and steadily expanding supply, and that imbalance is the core of the disappointment.

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The market is not failing to notice Ripple’s progress. It is noticing, correctly, that the progress runs largely through rails that do not require much XRP.

Understanding this reframes what a holder is really betting on. To own XRP in expectation of price appreciation is to bet not merely that Ripple succeeds, but that Ripple’s success comes to require XRP itself in growing quantities, through settlement volume, ecosystem use, and demand that finally outpaces the escrow supply.

That is a more specific and more demanding bet than simply believing in the company, and it is the bet the market keeps declining to front-run.

The network can keep winning for years while the token waits, and the waiting ends only when usage and token demand finally converge. Until they do, the gap that has defined XRP through 2026 is less a puzzle than a predictable feature of how value accrues, or fails to accrue, to a token whose network can succeed without it.

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What would actually break the range

If you want to know when XRP might finally move, the framework above tells you where to look, and it is not the next partnership headline.

The thing that breaks the range is the conversion of utility into token demand: settlement volume large enough that fees and ecosystem use begin to matter against the escrow supply, ETF flows that compound instead of trickle, and a regulatory catalyst like the CLARITY Act actually crossing the line and pulling institutional money off the sidelines.

Those forces aligning, not any one of them alone, is the strongest version of the XRP thesis.

Until then, the disconnect is likely to persist, and understanding why is the most valuable thing a holder can take from the past year. Ripple is winning, genuinely and repeatedly, in the institutional arena it has targeted for a decade.

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But Ripple’s wins flow first to Ripple the company, to the XRP Ledger as a piece of infrastructure, and to RLUSD as a settlement instrument, and only indirectly, slowly, and conditionally to XRP the token.

A holder who watches the partnerships and wonders why the price will not follow has been watching the wrong variable. The variable that matters is whether all that institutional adoption ever turns into durable demand for XRP itself, and so far, the market has decided it has not seen enough proof.

The deal with JPMorgan was a milestone. It was just a milestone for the ledger, not yet for the coin.

Frequently asked questions

What did Ripple and JPMorgan actually do?

Ripple, JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ondo Finance completed the first cross-border, cross-bank redemption of a tokenized United States Treasury fund on the XRP Ledger. Ondo’s tokenized Treasury product was redeemed on the ledger while Mastercard’s network and JPMorgan’s settlement platform delivered dollars to Ripple’s bank in Singapore, with the blockchain leg settling in under five seconds versus one to three business days on traditional rails. It is a real milestone for tokenized settlement and for the XRP Ledger as infrastructure.

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Why did XRP not go up after the JPMorgan deal?

Because XRP the asset was barely involved in the transaction. The settlement used RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, as the cash leg, while XRP appeared only as the tiny network fee. Institutional settlement needs a stable, audited dollar instrument, and XRP’s price volatility rules it out of that role by design. So the deal benefited the XRP Ledger and RLUSD far more than XRP, which is why the token did not rally and, on an earlier version of the pilot, actually fell.

Is XRP the same as owning a stake in Ripple?

No. Ripple is a private company, and XRP is a separate cryptocurrency. Owning XRP does not make you a Ripple shareholder, does not entitle you to its profits, and would not give you a claim in a Ripple IPO. The two are linked because Ripple is the largest holder of XRP and its business can increase the token’s utility over time, but that benefit is indirect. A Ripple IPO would reward Ripple’s equity holders, not XRP holders directly.

Why is XRP stuck in a range?

A mix of supply and demand factors. On the supply side, Ripple releases large amounts of XRP from escrow each month, a steady source of selling pressure that small fee burns cannot offset at current volumes. On the demand side, Ripple’s institutional wins have not yet produced sustained demand for the token itself, so the market prices each partnership, ETF, and legislative catalyst as a maybe instead of a confirmed driver, leaving XRP range-bound and quick to sell the news.

What could actually push XRP higher?

The conversion of utility into real token demand. That means settlement volume large enough that ecosystem use begins to matter against the escrow supply, ETF flows that compound instead of merely trickling, and a regulatory catalyst such as the CLARITY Act passing and writing XRP’s digital-commodity status into federal law, which analysts project could draw billions in additional ETF inflows. Those forces aligning together, not any single headline, is the strongest case for a breakout.

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Does XRP have a real bull case at all?

Yes. XRP has more regulatory clarity than almost any major token after the SEC case ended and a later classification treated it as a digital commodity. Spot XRP ETFs launched in late 2025 and gathered over a billion dollars, with major institutions among the holders, and RLUSD crossed a billion dollars in market value quickly. The CLARITY Act could codify XRP’s status and unlock further ETF demand. These are genuine supports, which is why XRP has held a floor, even as it waits for adoption to translate into token demand.

This article is information, not investment advice. Prices, partnership details, and corporate and legislative plans change quickly and reflect reporting available as of June 24, 2026. Verify current data with official sources before relying on anything described here.

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Bitcoin treasury companies unwind holdings as the DAT model comes under pressure

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Bitcoin treasury companies unwind holdings as the DAT model comes under pressure

Among others abandoning the treasury approach include Sequans Communications (SQNS), which sold 1,025 BTC before disposing of nearly 80% of its remaining holdings to repay convertible debt. It has ruled out further purchases and plans to monetize its remaining 658 BTC.

Nakamoto (NAKA), whose shares have fallen 99% since its May 2025 SPAC deal, sold around 284 BTC to raise $20 million for working capital following its acquisitions of BTC Inc. and UTXO Management. It sold roughly 40 BTC received through its derivatives program, according to VanEck’s Sigel. Almost 70% of its remaining 5,342 BTC were pledged against a Kraken loan maturing in December, creating what Sigel described as a potential binary event.

It’s not only specialist treasury companies that are reducing their holdings of the largest cryptocurrency. Crypto miners including Bitdeer and MARA Holdings are selling bitcoin to repurchase or repay debt and repurpose their energy-supply deals and computing resources to power AI data centers.

Other sellers include Empery Digital, which has reportedly sold almost half its bitcoin to finance buybacks and debt repayment, and Strategy, which has sold about 3,620 BTC in recent weeks and authorized additional sales to support its U.S. dollar reserves.

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Strategy, which started the investment trend, remains the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin, with more than 840,000 BTC. CEO Michael Sayler remains bullish.

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European Union sanctions Justin Sun’s HTX

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European Union sanctions Justin Sun's HTX

The Council of the European Union has sanctioned Justin Sun-owned HTX and Huobi Global S.A in a move that it hopes will “further cripple Russia’s economy and war machine.”

HTX and Huobi are now officially on the EU’s “list of credit and financial institutions and entities providing crypto-assets services or payment services established outside of the Union that are significantly frustrating the purpose of the prohibitions in this Decision, Decision 2014/145/CFSP, Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 and Regulation (EU) No 269/2014.”

One of the payment networks being targeted is the A7 Network, which is behind the A7A5 stablecoin.

Read more: UK sanctions HTX for alleged Russian sanctions violations

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The sanctions targeting HTX follow the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office sanctions against Huobi Global S.A., which claimed that it was providing financial services to Russia, including interacting with the A7 Network.

At the time, HTX tried to claim that “the listed entity Huobi Global S. A. is distinct from the online HTX exchange.”

However, a Protos review determined that Huobi Global S.A. was the owner of the HTX trademark in the United States and had described itself in court filings as the firm that “owns and operates HTX.”

Furthermore, these European Union sanctions explicitly list HTX alongside Huobi Global SA.

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HTX moves its reserves and wallets

Following this, HTX disclosed that it had moved over $1 billion worth of its reserves to an undisclosed custodian.

HTX says on its proof of reserves page that in order to verify these quantities, we should “please directly contact the third-party custodians.”

However, HTX hasn’t responded to requests from Protos for the identity of that custodian.

More recently, blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs has claimed that HTX has been rapidly churning through wallets.

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This means that other cryptocurrency entities that want to prevent transactions from the sanctioned HTX are struggling as their list of HTX-related addresses ends up out of date.

Ari Redbord, global head of policy at TRM Labs, described the behavior as “HTX changing its wallets every few hours to stay a step ahead of screening built on static lists.”

HTX told The Block that these practices “reflect routine, security-driven platform operations common across the industry.” It adds that it “categorically rejects any characterization implying otherwise.”

These additional sanctions are likely to complicate HTX’s business.

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Protos reached out to HTX for comment, but it didn’t respond before publication.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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National police union reverses course to back the CLARITY Act

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Ripple deploys CLARITY truck as Senate delay clouds crypto bill

A US police union representing more than 382,000 members has reversed its position and endorsed the latest CLARITY Act after lawmakers added language addressing its concerns about cryptocurrency investigations.

Summary

  • The National Fraternal Order of Police has reversed course and endorsed the latest CLARITY Act.
  • The union says revised provisions preserve law enforcement powers to investigate crimes involving digital assets.
  • Senate delays and election-year disputes have pushed Polymarket’s 2026 passage odds down to 33%.

According to former Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, the National Fraternal Order of Police now supports the bill after reviewing provisions tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The union believes the language protects the ability of police and prosecutors to pursue crimes involving digital assets.

In a July 24 letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and ranking member Elizabeth Warren, FOP National President Patrick Yoes backed the latest version of H.R. 3633, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Yoes wrote that revised Section 10604, which amends the BRCA, does not restrict law enforcement agencies or prosecutors from addressing illegal conduct involving cryptocurrencies. According to the letter, the clarification directly answers concerns the union raised during earlier negotiations over the legislation.

Terrett, however, reported that the BRCA provisions remained unchanged in the latest bill released Wednesday. She noted that it was unclear which changes the FOP was referring to when it announced its support.

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The apparent inconsistency leaves open whether the union assessed language added at an earlier stage, received separate assurances from lawmakers, or interpreted an existing provision differently. Neither the FOP letter nor Terrett’s report identified a specific newly amended passage beyond Section 10604.

Revised provisions preserve crypto enforcement powers

Explaining its reversal, the FOP cited several sections that it believes will help federal, state and local agencies investigate financial crimes involving digital assets. The union said investigators need clear authority and practical tools as they confront fraud, organized crime and illicit finance conducted through crypto networks.

Among those provisions, the legislation would create safeguards addressing fraud linked to digital asset kiosks. According to the FOP, the measure also applies anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance duties across parts of the crypto industry.

The letter pointed to rules intended to help investigators act before suspected criminal funds leave their reach. Those provisions would protect digital asset companies and stablecoin issuers from liability when they voluntarily delay suspicious transactions or respond to a law enforcement request.

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Given how quickly cryptocurrencies can cross jurisdictions, the FOP argued that temporary transaction holds could give investigators time to prevent losses, recover stolen assets and disrupt illegal activity. The union presented those protections as an important tool for cases in which funds might otherwise disappear before officers can intervene.

Bank Secrecy Act provisions also contributed to the union’s support. According to the letter, the revised bill updates the treatment of digital assets under rules governing monetary instruments, helping existing reporting and enforcement requirements apply more clearly to crypto activity.

Other sections direct government agencies to share information and coordinate their responses to illicit finance risks. The FOP added that the bill would strengthen international cooperation on anti-money laundering enforcement and sanctions involving digital assets.

Under Title IX, the legislation would establish a grant program for state and local digital asset enforcement work. The FOP said it would also create a national security and law enforcement training program, form a digital asset cyber innovation center and introduce measures designed to protect older consumers from deception.

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Addressing protections for software developers, the union said the bill would not prevent authorities from investigating crimes, prosecuting offenders or applying existing criminal laws. Its letter specifically cited 18 U.S.C. § 1960, a federal statute covering certain unlicensed money-transmitting activity.

The FOP also pointed to language preserving liability for people who knowingly transfer funds tied to criminal offenses or promote unlawful activity. According to the union, this distinction gives responsible developers legal certainty without shielding individuals who intentionally assist illegal transactions.

Senate delay pushes CLARITY Act beyond the August recess

The endorsement has arrived as the CLARITY Act faces a shrinking congressional timetable. As crypto.news reported earlier on July 24, Senate Majority Leader John Thune does not expect the Senate to approve the market structure legislation before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.

Thune’s position removes a deadline that crypto industry supporters had treated as important for completing the bill in 2026. Following the development, Polymarket traders lowered the probability of the legislation becoming law this year to 33%.

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Attention has therefore moved to the session after the November midterm elections. During that period, lawmakers will return to government funding measures, defense legislation and other unfinished bills that will also compete for limited Senate floor time.

According to Wintermute head of policy and advocacy Ron Hammond, the CLARITY Act still has enough bipartisan backing to pass but has become trapped in election-year disputes. Hammond attributed the immediate obstacle to political messaging rather than a shortage of votes in the Senate.

With Democrats preparing to campaign against President Donald Trump and alleged corruption, Hammond expects some lawmakers to avoid backing a major cryptocurrency bill before the election. His assessment suggests the FOP endorsement may resolve one law enforcement dispute without removing the political barriers delaying a Senate vote.

In its letter, the FOP described the latest provisions as a meaningful effort to provide stronger investigative tools, clearer compliance paths and better coordination between agencies. The union said its initial concerns had been satisfactorily addressed and offered to work with lawmakers to secure passage of the amended bill.

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Peter Schiff Warns Of Inflation Shock As Oil Soars Past $100

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Crypto Breaking News

Leading economist Peter Schiff has warned that rising oil prices could drive July CPI numbers higher after a drop in the June CPI, which was largely due to oil declining by 30%.

Oil prices have risen sharply after renewed US-Iran hostilities, Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, and fresh oil supply concerns.

Peter Schiff Flags Inflation Concerns Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Schiff’s warning comes amid renewed US-Iran tensions and supply chain concerns after Iran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The economist noted that June CPI numbers were lower due to a substantial drop in crude prices. However, the recent increase in prices could undermine June’s progress and drive inflation higher in July.

Schiff stated in a post on X,

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“Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline. But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel.”

Schiff said that if prices went back above $100, it would mark a 43% increase from recent lows, and would adversely impact July CPI numbers. Brent crossed the $100 mark hours after the warning of Houthi-led attacks on Saudi oil tankers.

“If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy.”

Schiff argued that June’s lower CPI numbers were due to lower oil prices, and higher prices in July could completely reverse progress and drive inflation higher.

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“No, it’s just that the only reason June CPI fell so much was the 30% drop in oil. That will likely be completely reversed by an even bigger rise in the price of oil in July.”

Oil Prices Could Push July Inflation Numbers Higher

US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed a 0.4% decline in headline CPI, as against the expected 0.1% decline. Meanwhile, annual inflation fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, below the expected 3.8%. The decline was primarily attributed to declining energy prices.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the energy index declined 5.7% in June, its largest decline since April 2020, when gasoline prices fell by nearly 10%. Meanwhile, Core CPI remained unchanged, but was 2.6% higher than last year.

However, energy prices are 15.7% higher than last year, while gasoline prices are up 26.7% over the same period. This could push household expenses even higher if oil prices remain high for the rest of the month.

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Renewed Geopolitical Headwinds

Oil prices have spiked after another flare-up in the Middle East following an attack on Saudi oil tankers. Iran has also blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through the Houthis, a route Saudi exporters rely heavily on since the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters has reported a drastic decline in Iranian oil exports, which fell from 2 million barrels per day to nearly zero during the ongoing conflict. Goldman Sachs analysts also issued a dire warning, telling Reuters Brent could cross $120 if the ongoing disruptions continue.

Diplomatic efforts have also stalled, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing Iran of being unwilling to negotiate while maintaining Washington remained committed to negotiations. US and Iranian military activity also increases the risk of damaging crucial oil infrastructure.

Fed Meeting Takes Center Stage

Focus now shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for July 28 and 29. Rising oil prices could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. Policymakers believe one report is not sufficient to establish a downward trend.

Governor Chris Waller had said after the June report that the Fed needed to see several months of softer data before it could establish that inflation was moving towards its 2% target. Analysts expect the Fed to maintain its target range at 3.50%-3.75%.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Dem Senator Slams GOP’s CLARITY Ethics Proposal as ‘Not a Serious Effort’: Report

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Senate Democrats are mounting a fresh push to rewrite the CLARITY Act’s ethics provisions after dismissing the White House-backed proposal unveiled by GOP senators, according to Politico.

Senator Ruben Gallego blasted the latest draft and said that the proposal Republicans sent back was “not a serious effort” despite months of bipartisan negotiations.

Dispute Deepens in Senate

At the center of the dispute is how to prevent President Donald Trump from profiting from digital assets. Democrats insist they cannot support ethics rules that are enforceable only by the Department of Justice. Negotiations involving Gallego, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno, and the White House ultimately collapsed over whether state attorneys general should also have authority to enforce the provisions.

In an interview on Thursday, Gallego said,

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“I can’t imagine that that’s a serious effort – after all the work that we’ve done with our Republican colleagues, that they would take the months and months of work and somehow interpret that and turn around and think what they offered was even remotely close.”

Gallego added that he is now working with Senator Thom Tillis and other unnamed Republicans on a counterproposal, while insisting, “We are still in this fight.”

Lummis defended the proposal while Tillis said the White House-approved language was “good,” but acknowledged that further changes may be necessary to secure the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. Tillis added that another round of discussions with the White House is expected to determine whether additional revisions would be “acceptable” to the president.

The disagreement has also put the bill’s timeline in doubt. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that he no longer expects the Senate to pass either the CLARITY Act before lawmakers leave for the August recess.

Hopes that the CLARITY Act could provide the US crypto industry with long-awaited regulatory clarity have been one of the factors supporting bullish expectations for the market this year. However, prediction market odds of the bill’s passage declined amid disagreements over ethics provisions and other issues that have slowed negotiations.

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Middle Ground

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently warned that parts of the company’s business could move overseas if the US fails to pass clear crypto legislation. While Coinbase wants to keep most of its operations in the country, the exec said regulatory clarity is needed to prevent capital, businesses and users from shifting offshore.

Amid the ongoing standoff, crypto commentator Crypto Sensei recently proposed a compromise to break the deadlock. In a recent post on X, he suggested keeping the DOJ as the primary enforcer while imposing statutory deadlines for investigations, creating an independent ethics review body to oversee DOJ decisions, and allowing state attorneys general to intervene only under limited conditions if the DOJ fails to act.

He also called for annual disclosures detailing ethics complaints, investigations, and enforcement actions for greater transparency.

The post Dem Senator Slams GOP’s CLARITY Ethics Proposal as ‘Not a Serious Effort’: Report appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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AI-to-Crypto Rotation? ETF Inflows Fuel Crypto Rally

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AI-to-Crypto Rotation? ETF Inflows Fuel Crypto Rally

Crypto markets showed renewed signs of life this week as institutional investors fueled the longest streak of inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since April and crypto-linked stocks rallied on optimism over US regulation. But the more intriguing story may be unfolding outside crypto: AI’s grip on speculative capital is beginning to loosen.

After dominating markets for nearly two years, the AI trade is becoming more selective as investors distinguish between companies with sustainable earnings and those riding the hype cycle. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, recently slipped into a technical bear market after falling 20% from its recent high, although it remains well above year-ago levels.

Some analysts believe the shift could mark the beginning of a broader rotation back into digital assets. While it’s too early to call a lasting trend, improving regulatory clarity, a recovery in ETF demand, and easing enthusiasm for AI are creating a more constructive backdrop for crypto than investors have seen in months.

Bitcoin ETFs post six-day inflow streak as market sentiment improves

US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their inflow streak to six consecutive trading days, attracting $203.1 million in fresh capital as institutional demand showed tentative signs of recovery.

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The latest inflows brought the six-day total to roughly $930 million, marking the funds’ longest winning streak since April as Bitcoin briefly climbed above $67,000. The renewed demand coincided with improving market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recovering from “extreme fear” to “fear.” 

Since launching in January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $51.8 billion in cumulative net inflows and now hold $80.9 billion in net assets, although they remain down $4.84 billion on a year-to-date net flow basis. Analysts said Bitcoin needs to hold above the $65,000-$65,500 range to strengthen the case for a sustained bullish breakout.

Crypto rally gains momentum as AI trade shows signs of cooling

The rally in Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets coincided with progress on US crypto legislation and a cooling AI trade, fueling expectations that capital may be rotating back into crypto.

The broader crypto market rallied alongside crypto-related stocks, with Coinbase, American Bitcoin and Cipher Digital posting double-digit percentage gains. Sentiment brightened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said lawmakers were at the “1-yard line” on the CLARITY Act, legislation that would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. 

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Analysts also pointed to fading momentum in AI equities as another potential catalyst. FRNT Financial CEO Stephane Ouellette said that slowing enthusiasm for AI stocks and growing confidence in the interest-rate outlook could support a breakout in Bitcoin. The SOX Index, a benchmark for AI chipmakers, had recently fallen more than 20% from its recent high after concerns over elevated valuations and AI infrastructure spending.

AI infrastructure deals drive rally in Bitcoin mining stocks

Bitcoin mining stocks surged after Hut 8 and IREN unveiled multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure agreements, reinforcing the sector’s lucrative shift toward data centers and cloud computing as digital asset markets continued to struggle. 

Hut 8, IREN, Cipher Digital, CleanSpark and MARA Holdings each gained after Hut 8 announced a 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for its AI data center campus and IREN disclosed $2.8 billion in cloud services contracts with AI developers. The deals underscore how miners are diversifying beyond Bitcoin production as mining economics become more challenging, with IREN now projecting more than $4 billion in annual recurring AI cloud revenue by the end of 2026. 

While investors have rewarded the AI pivot, analysts say it also raises new questions around execution and funding. Blocksbridge Consulting estimates the sector will require roughly $50 billion in additional capital to achieve its AI ambitions, even as insider stock sales have drawn increased scrutiny.

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The TEM AI Infrastructure Growth Index. Source: The Energy Mag

Bernstein sees tokenization, prediction markets driving Robinhood’s next growth phase

Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood, arguing the brokerage’s long-term growth will be fueled by tokenized assets and prediction markets rather than traditional crypto trading.

The investment firm increased its price target on Robinhood shares to $160 from $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts forecast prediction markets will become the company’s fastest-growing business, generating $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028. Bernstein also identified tokenized equities as a major growth opportunity, citing Robinhood’s Arbitrum-based layer-2 network as key infrastructure for bringing real-world assets onchain. 

The bullish outlook comes as Wall Street accelerates its tokenization push, with companies such as Broadridge, Alpaca, Securitize and Cantor Fitzgerald expanding blockchain-based securities infrastructure. 

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Bernstein identified prediction markets, perpetual futures and tokenized equities as key competitive battlegrounds for Robinhood. Source: Bernstein

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Bitcoin Drops Below $64K as Rising U.S. Yields Lift Rate-Hike Odds

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin slipped more than 1.6% on Friday, with selling pressure strengthening soon after Wall Street opened. The move came as traders grew more cautious toward risk assets amid renewed pressure from US bond yields and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

According to TradingView data cited in market commentary, BTC/USD pushed toward the $64,000 area as bulls struggled to defend earlier gains. The pullback highlights how closely crypto trading has continued to track traditional macro signals—especially rates.

Key takeaways

  • BTC weakened quickly after the US market open, with price action approaching the $64,000 level.
  • US Treasury yields rose enough to reinforce a more hawkish Fed outlook, which weighed on risk sentiment.
  • Market monitoring pointed to concentrated buy-side liquidity on Binance that some traders believe may help stabilize short-term dips.
  • CME FedWatch pricing still leaned toward no change at the next meeting, while September hikes remained a key debate.
  • Several analysts framed the current pattern as a repeat of past market behavior, including 2022-style rejections near key moving averages.

Yields stay elevated, pushing rate expectations higher

Geopolitical tensions and broader macro headwinds were cited as factors damping appetite for risk. A report from Mosaic Asset Company highlighted that rising Treasury yields were a principal driver behind the sell-off.

Mosaic linked the moves to volatility across the yield curve, describing ongoing “massive moves” even after the latest US consumer inflation reading came in weaker than expected. In its framing, the short end of the curve—particularly the two-year yield—has outsized influence on expectations for where the Fed’s policy rate may go next.

Specifically, Mosaic said the two-year yield sits at 4.31% and remains “well above” the Federal Reserve’s target range, adding downward pressure to risk assets as traders adjusted expectations toward additional hikes.

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To gauge how the market was positioning, the report referenced the CME Group FedWatch Tool. That data showed expectations that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at the next scheduled decision, while markets continued to price a 0.25% hike in September—one of two increases expected before the end of 2026.

Mosaic further argued that these rate probabilities were contributing to weakness beyond crypto, noting they were “placing downward pressure on stock indexes.” For traders, the practical takeaway is that BTC’s near-term trading range may remain highly sensitive to continued yield spikes and any incremental repricing of Fed probabilities.

Traders watch $64,000 as structure test intensifies

On the crypto side, short-term technical monitoring focused on how BTC would behave as it approached the $64,000 zone. One recurring theme in trader commentary is that liquidity placed below spot prices can sometimes blunt sell-offs—at least temporarily.

Crypto trader Killa described what they called a “textbook setup,” saying BTC was repeating a pattern they have observed multiple times. In an earlier post from early June, Killa had referred to a “plunge protection team” active on Binance, suggesting that layered bid liquidity could absorb downside if triggered.

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That same idea resurfaced in current monitoring: Killa pointed to an order-book view showing multiple levels of liquidity below the prevailing price. The implication, as Killa presented it, is that the holders behind those bids may not necessarily be seeking immediate fills—meaning the market could see stability during the initial leg of a drawdown, even if longer-term trend signals remain uncertain.

Another analytics account, Wealthmanager, emphasized the importance of the $64,000 area as a structural checkpoint. In its warning, the account stated that a break below $64,000 would “invalidate” the low-timeframe market structure. For active traders, this frames the current move not just as volatility, but as a test of whether the market can hold a near-term support regime.

Rejection theory returns: 2022 behavior vs. moving-average tests

Separate from the liquidity-focused view, analyst Rekt Capital reinforced a longer-pattern interpretation. The trader argued that BTC/USD was repeating tendencies seen during its 2022 bear market, pointing to behavior around the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

Rekt Capital said BTC has shown “no evidence” contradicting that thesis, summarizing that the asset still appears to follow historical patterns. In the cited analysis, the reference area included a 50-month EMA level near $65,950, where BTC has recently faced rejections.

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While this does not automatically predict immediate direction, it does matter for how traders may set expectations: if BTC continues to reject around the same macro-relevant moving average, rallies may struggle to sustain, and any breakdown toward lower support levels could occur faster than bulls anticipate.

What to watch next as macro and crypto narratives compete

The current drawdown sits at the intersection of macro rate expectations and crypto-specific market microstructure. On one hand, bond yields have been acting as a direct sentiment driver, with Mosaic’s assessment pointing to the two-year yield as a key variable shaping expectations for Fed actions. On the other hand, trader observations about Binance order-book liquidity suggest there may be pockets of demand ready to cushion deeper drops.

Going forward, traders should watch whether BTC can reclaim and hold levels around the mid-$60,000s—especially the area referenced by moving-average analysis—or whether the market breaks through the $64,000 structure threshold. In parallel, any renewed shift in CME FedWatch probabilities, alongside further changes in the two-year Treasury yield, could quickly determine whether Friday’s sell-off becomes a broader risk-off move or fades into consolidation.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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India’s IFF Calls BitChat GitHub Takedown Unconstitutional

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India’s IFF Calls BitChat GitHub Takedown Unconstitutional

India’s Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF) has condemned a government order directing GitHub to remove repositories for Jack Dorsey’s decentralized messaging app BitChat, calling the move unconstitutional and warning it threatens free speech and open-source software.

The statement came a day after India’s cybercrime agency ordered GitHub to disable access to three BitChat repositories within three hours, saying the decentralized messaging app could be used to bypass internet shutdowns, evade lawful surveillance and facilitate unlawful activities.

In its statement posted on X on Friday, IFF argued the order exceeded the government’s legal authority because it was issued under Section 79(3)(b) of India’s Information Technology Act instead of the country’s formal website-blocking process, which includes procedural safeguards. The group called on the government to withdraw the notice and publish all takedown orders issued under the provision.

The organization also disputed the government’s justification, noting the order did not identify any unlawful content in the repositories and instead argued the app’s decentralized design, which enables communication over Bluetooth without internet access or centralized servers, was itself grounds for removal.

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BitChat is a decentralized messaging app that routes encrypted messages between nearby devices over Bluetooth without relying on internet connectivity or centralized servers.

Since its release in July 2025, the app has gained traction during protests, natural disasters and internet shutdowns, with downloads and adoption surging during periods of unrest and internet outages in countries including Madagascar, Nepal, Uganda, Jamaica and Iran.

Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: The Week of Central Banks and Earnings

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Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: The Week of Central Banks and Earnings

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.

👉 Key topics covered in this episode:

✔️Fed Interest Rate Decision — 29 July, 09:00 PM GMT+3
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Investors will be watching Kevin Warsh’s comments for fresh clues on inflation, the labour market and the outlook for monetary policy. Could the Fed’s guidance have a greater impact than the rate decision itself?

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✔️Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — 30 July, 02:00 PM GMT+3
Markets also expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold. With inflation easing but oil prices creating fresh uncertainty, markets will focus on the MPC’s voting split and any signals about future interest rate decisions.

✔️US PCE Price Index — 30 July, 03:30 PM GMT+3
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could reshape expectations for interest rates, despite being released after the Fed meeting. Will inflation continue to cool, or could an upside surprise revive expectations of tighter monetary policy?

✔️Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon Earnings
Big Tech earnings will test whether record AI spending is beginning to translate into stronger business performance. Investors will be looking beyond headline results for signs that AI investments are delivering measurable returns.

The combination of central bank decisions, inflation data and Big Tech earnings could drive significant moves across currencies, equity indices and technology stocks as markets head into August.

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In this environment, traders closely monitor incoming data, being flexible and getting ready for short-term volatility.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more market insights every week.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Struggling farmers unlock $20,000 in credit by putting cows on the blockchain

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Struggling farmers unlock $20,000 in credit by putting cows on the blockchain

Farmers in Parana, Brazil, struggling to get banks to loan them cash, became the first to tokenize livestock and place 10 dairy milk cows’ tokens for trade on the country’s B3 national stock exchange. They generated nearly $20,000 in credit backed by their cattle, signaling the potential of tokenizing RWAs as a financing tool.

The dairy cow tokenization in Brazil is a world first and serves as a test in a real-world scenario in which farmers are facing increasingly stringent lending limits imposed by local banks on small agricultural businesses.

“We take the cow, which is a real and tangible asset, and transform it into a digital asset backed by a unique code monitored in real time,” Thiago Martins of Cowmed, a Brazilian Agtec company, told CNNBrasil recently.

Martins and his company did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

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“This digitization allows for formal registration with B3 as a movable asset,” Martins added. “The process is simple and gives the producer an advantageous opportunity to finance themselves, opening a new alternative for collateral at a time of strong credit restrictions in agribusiness.”

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