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Robinhood’s Crypto Volume Rebounds 61% in August

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Robinhood’s Crypto Volume Rebounds 61% in August

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Tokenized stocks expand access, but what do investors legally own? Tessera PE founder explains

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Cosmos says bank tokenization is moving beyond pilots

Tokenized stock transfers have climbed to $29.5 billion as new products extend market access, but Tessera PE founder Chan Ahn says investors could receive anything from direct share ownership to a contractual claim carrying no shareholder rights.

Summary

  • Tokenized stocks can represent direct shares, custodial claims, or synthetic contracts with different legal rights.
  • Company rules, securities laws, and underwriter lock-ups can limit transfers even when tokens move on-chain.
  • Pre-IPO tokens lack the public prices and company disclosures needed for dependable secondary markets.
  • Tokenizing private credit may extend access without making complex AI infrastructure risks easier to value.
  • U.S. investors remain excluded from several tokenized stock products offered under Regulation S.

Tessera PE founder Chan Ahn told crypto.news that similar marketing terms often conceal substantial differences in what token holders own, how they receive dividends, and whether they can vote on company matters.

Ahn said he had not previously published an analysis of Securitize and based his comments about its model on publicly available information. He also separated Securitize’s reported NYSE listing, the tokenization of its own stock, and its ability to support offerings for other issuers, saying each involves a different legal question.

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Tokenized stocks can give investors three different claims

Under Ahn’s reading of a January SEC staff statement, tokenized securities generally take one of three forms: issuer-sponsored securities, custodial products, or synthetic contracts.

In an issuer-sponsored structure, the company supports the tokenization and presents the token as the security itself rather than as a separate wrapper. If the structure works as described, Ahn said the holder’s voting, dividend, and information rights should be the same as those attached to a conventional share because both formats represent the same instrument.

Still, two operating details determine whether a token holder owns the security directly. Investors need to know whether their names appear on the shareholder register or whether a nominee sits between them and the company. The platform must also explain how the on-chain position reconciles with the settlement of shares traded on a public exchange.

“The answers decide whether you hold the security or a claim on somebody who does,” Ahn said.

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A custodial token creates a different relationship because the underlying shares remain off-chain with an intermediary. According to Ahn, the investor may instead receive a security entitlement under Article 8 of the Uniform Commercial Code, similar to the indirect ownership structure used when a person holds stock through a broker.

Voting materials, dividends, and company communications reach the token holder only through arrangements made by the intermediary. Ahn said one structure he reviewed used Broadridge to process proxy materials and issuer communications, matching infrastructure already used by conventional brokerages.

Custodian failure also creates a separate risk. While a registered shareholder has a direct relationship with the company, a custodial-token holder may have to pursue a claim through the intermediary’s insolvency process.

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Synthetic tokens sit further away from the company. Buyers own a contract with the product issuer rather than a share or an entitlement backed by shares. Ahn said the SEC staff warned that some products in this category could qualify as security-based swaps, potentially limiting access to eligible contract participants.

“So the honest answer to ‘what does an investor own’ is: read which of the three you are being offered, because the marketing language is close to identical across all of them and the legal substance is not.”

Voting, dividends and access to company information provide a quick way to test a product’s structure, Ahn added. Investors should ask which entity owes them each right and what happens if that entity fails.

Tessera’s own products do not represent equity. Ahn said the company issues tokenized loan participation rights that provide economic exposure but carry no ownership, voting, dividend, or information rights in the underlying business.

Company rules can still block token transfers

Even when a token can move between blockchain addresses, Ahn said issuer approvals, securities laws, and contractual lock-ups can prevent the related ownership or economic interest from changing hands.

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Closely held companies commonly impose board-approval requirements, rights of first refusal, and limits written into shareholder agreements. Private companies may maintain their own shareholder registers rather than employ an outside transfer agent, allowing them to reject transfers that do not meet their conditions.

“A token cannot move what the register will not record,” Ahn said.

Federal securities rules add another layer through Rule 144 holding periods, affiliate volume limits, notice conditions, and investor eligibility requirements. Underwriter lock-ups can reach beyond direct sales of shares by restricting transactions that transfer the economics of ownership.

Citing SpaceX’s final prospectus, Ahn said shareholders were barred from certain hedging or other arrangements without prior written consent from Goldman Sachs acting for the underwriters. The clause, subject to stated exceptions, reportedly covered direct or indirect transfers of the economic consequences of ownership, whether settled in shares or cash.

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Such language means a token offering exposure to locked shares may raise a contractual issue even if the token is not legally classified as the underlying stock. According to Ahn, providers offering economic exposure to positions still under lock-up should be able to explain how the product complies with those agreements.

Permissioned blockchain systems can enforce some limits through approved wallets, identity checks, and jurisdiction screening. When the token is the security, its transfer controls may enforce restrictions imposed by the issuer. For a wrapper, however, the same controls may enforce only the provider’s terms, which do not necessarily match the company’s requirements.

The issue has become more relevant as tokenized shares move into decentralized markets. Coinbase recently added six tokenized stocks on Base after its first four products generated $227.7 million in decentralized exchange volume in about 30 days.

The additions included tokens linked to Amazon, Microsoft, Strategy, SanDisk, Tesla, and privately held SpaceX. Coinbase’s structure uses an Abu Dhabi Global Market entity to issue tokens against underlying shares or eligible equity interests held in custody, but holders do not appear directly on the companies’ shareholder registers.

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U.S. persons cannot access the products because they have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 or state securities laws. Coinbase offers them under Regulation S, which covers qualifying securities transactions conducted outside the United States.

Tokenized stocks do not create dependable liquidity

Trading access alone does not produce a liquid market, especially when a token tracks a private company without listed shares, options, or available stock to borrow.

Ahn said market makers quote prices when they can offset risk elsewhere. With pre-IPO assets, they often lack a closely matched instrument for hedging, forcing them to retain the risk on their own books and charge for it through larger bid-ask spreads.

Valuation creates a harder problem. Publicly listed tokenized stocks can follow prices formed continuously during exchange hours, giving trading platforms an external reference. A private company has no comparable public market, leaving platforms to rely on the latest primary funding round.

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Private-round valuations emerge from negotiations among a limited group that already owns or plans to buy the asset. Using that figure for secondary trading can make a negotiated private valuation appear like a market-established price.

“An AMM with no external reference is not discovering a price; it is reflecting the flows of whoever happens to be trading it that day.”

Disclosure poses the largest obstacle because a private company generally has no duty to provide regular information to holders of an instrument it did not issue or approve. A token may trade continuously while the company behind its value releases financial information only when it chooses.

According to Ahn, a stronger structure would include a written valuation policy, an identified independent valuer, and a fixed schedule for updating the asset’s value. Disclosure duties should appear in the instrument’s legal terms, while platforms should label quoted prices as indicative when they do not represent executable market prices.

On-chain activity has already grown despite such differences. An August report found that monthly stock transfers rose 415% to $29.5 billion, while tokenized equities distributed on-chain were valued at about $2.54 billion. RWA.xyz also counted around 1.3 million active addresses and 2.36 million tokenized stockholders, although wallet figures do not equal the number of individual users.

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Collateral use adds another risk because price gaps can trigger liquidations. Chainlink recently introduced feeds for four stocks issued by Coinbase, allowing lending platforms to assess tokens linked to Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Alphabet.

Coinbase’s product documents warn that thin liquidity and different trading hours can cause token prices to separate from the underlying shares when U.S. exchanges are closed. Lending platforms also set their own collateral limits and liquidation terms.

Tokenized private credit can spread hard-to-value risks

Moving from equity into private credit does not remove the valuation and disclosure problems, according to Ahn, particularly when the debt finances AI infrastructure whose equipment may lose value quickly.

Pointing to a CoreWeave Form 8-K, Ahn said the company entered a $2.6 billion delayed-draw term loan facility on Aug. 7, 2026, through a ring-fenced subsidiary, with JPMorgan acting as administrative agent. The filing said the money would finance spending needed to perform customer contracts, including purchases of graphics processing unit servers and related infrastructure.

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Borrowings under the facility can continue through December 2026, while the debt matures on Sep. 1, 2031. Ahn noted that the parent company unconditionally guarantees the facility and that substantially all assets of the borrowing subsidiary secure it.

CoreWeave’s filing also listed certain adverse events affecting material customer contracts among the events of default. In Ahn’s view, the provision makes those customer agreements central to the credit structure rather than merely sources of revenue.

The central valuation question concerns what the financed accelerators will be worth several years from now. Tokenizing the loan exposure would not establish a market price for that equipment, Ahn said, but it could distribute the same uncertainty among more investors who may have less ability to examine the underlying contracts and collateral.

Ahn also cited a Chicago Fed study showing that the average bank’s outstanding exposure to AI-adjacent industries was about 0.8% of total assets. Committed exposure, however, was closer to 25% of Tier 1 capital, compared with outstanding commercial and industrial exposure averaging 9%.

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Among large banks, commitments to AI-adjacent industries reached about $450 billion in late 2025, according to the study, while approximately $150 billion had been drawn.

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SEC tokenized stock plan targets the register, not the token: Bitget analyst

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SEC tokenized stock plan targets the register, not the token: Bitget analyst

The SEC has proposed a 60-day rulemaking process to modernize transfer-agent systems for blockchain records as offshore demand for tokenized stocks grows.

Summary

  • SEC rules would permit transfer agents to use blockchain-based systems for securities records.
  • The proposal does not make tokens legal shares or grant holders shareholder rights.
  • Bitget recorded $1.16 billion in tokenized-stock volume from June 2 to July 19.
  • Shared ownership records remain necessary for US and offshore products to become interchangeable.

Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee told crypto.news that the SEC’s proposal addresses a part of tokenized stock markets that has received less attention than trading venues: the official record showing who legally owns each share.

Most tokenized stock products available outside the United States give investors price exposure through a synthetic or custodial structure, Lee said. Under such arrangements, a platform or custodian holds the underlying security, while the investor owns a token carrying a claim against that intermediary.

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“The key difference is how ownership is recorded, not the token itself,” Lee said.

In the traditional US market, registered transfer agents maintain issuer records, process ownership changes, and help manage corporate actions. Connecting a token to an authoritative transfer-agent register could allow legal ownership to appear on the same official record used for conventional shares, according to Lee.

SEC tokenized stock proposal modernizes the ownership system

The SEC proposal, published on Sep. 1, would update federal rules and forms governing registered transfer agents. Existing transfer-agent rules have not received a substantial update since the late 1970s and early 1980s, according to the agency.

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Under the plan, transfer agents could use electronic communications and blockchain technology when handling securities offerings and share transfers. Proposed changes also cover registration, reporting, recordkeeping, and safeguards for securities and funds.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the proposal would update the rules to account for current transfer-agent operations, including the use of blockchain technology. Public comments will remain open for 60 days after the proposal appears in the Federal Register.

Lee cautioned that the rulemaking deals with the systems supporting securities ownership, not the legal status of tokenized shares themselves. Adoption would not automatically establish a token as the underlying security or give its holder voting, dividend, and other shareholder rights.

“It modernizes the plumbing an authoritative tokenized register would eventually need,” Lee said, calling the proposal meaningful while stressing that substantive securities-law questions remain unresolved.

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For American investors, the distinction determines whether an onchain product amounts to registered stock ownership or merely financial exposure tied to a listed company. Issuance terms, custody arrangements, and applicable securities laws would still govern investor rights even if a transfer agent stores records on a blockchain.

Offshore volume shows demand is concentrated in active stocks

Bitget recorded $1.16 billion in tokenized-stock trading volume between June 2 and July 19, according to figures provided by the exchange. Non-crypto assets have accounted for about 20% of its total trading volume, indicating that offshore users already trade stock-linked products without a dedicated US tokenization framework.

Citing research from DeFiLlama, Lee said Bitget’s activity centered on semiconductor and technology companies rather than being distributed evenly across more than 500 listed stocks.

The study found that Bitget had a median bid-ask spread of 0.83 basis points, the lowest among five tokenized-equity markets included in the comparison. It also recorded the deepest available liquidity at the top of its order book, according to the research.

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Lee described the figures as evidence of demand for efficient trading in selected high-momentum names. However, volume alone does not establish whether users hold the products as long-term investments or repeatedly trade them.

Moving from price access to direct ownership would require clear rules governing legal title and shareholder rights, Lee said. A July tokenized stock study found that the number of holders across five platforms had risen 92% in 30 days to 752,000.

Robinhood accounted for 328,000 holders but only $44 million in assets, producing an average position of about $134. Ondo held $857 million in tokenized equities, while xStocks followed with $487 million, showing that holder counts and capital concentration can present different pictures of adoption.

Shared records could make tokenized shares interchangeable

Legal fungibility between a US-regulated tokenized share and an offshore counterpart would require both products to refer to the same authoritative ownership record, according to Lee. Without such a link, transferring a product between jurisdictions could create a separate instrument rather than move the original security.

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Regulators would first need to recognize that a token representing a US-registered security remains the same security when held through an offshore platform. Lee identified cross-border recognition as the hardest condition because jurisdictions have not settled how an offshore holder could own a claim on the same registered share.

Market operators would also need a common or interoperable settlement and registry layer. A transfer would then update one accepted record instead of requiring two independent ledgers to be reconciled after each transaction.

Corporate actions add an operational requirement. Platforms and transfer agents would have to apply dividends, shareholder votes, transfer limits, and regulatory reporting consistently so that an asset does not gain or lose rights when it crosses from one venue to another.

Current products handle such rights in different ways. An August report on xStocks explained how Backed Assets collects voting instructions from token holders and passes them through its custodial structure. Backed remains the beneficial owner of the underlying shares, while token holders receive contractual instruction rights rather than direct registration as shareholders.

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Access also varies by jurisdiction. In July, Kraken added selected xStocks as collateral for futures and margin positions, but the service remained limited to eligible users outside the United States. The launch covered ten products, including tokenized versions of Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, and the Invesco QQQ Trust.

Coinbase and Base have pursued another structure. Base founder Jesse Pollak said in July that the companies were preparing tokenized equities backed one-for-one by underlying shares, according to an earlier report on the plan. Coinbase had said its planned non-US products would represent equity ownership and include dividends and shareholder rights, though the companies had not disclosed the proposed custody or registry process.

Transfer-agent control could become a competitive advantage

Control over shareholder records may become more valuable as exchanges compete on fees, liquidity and trading hours, Lee said. Every venue ultimately needs to settle transactions against an accepted ownership register, giving transfer agents a central place in the market structure.

Lee pointed to Bullish’s planned Equiniti acquisition as evidence that companies are directing capital toward registry infrastructure. Announced in May, the $4.2 billion transaction would add a regulated transfer agent to Bullish’s tokenization, trading and market-infrastructure operations.

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Equiniti maintains shareholder records for more than 2,500 companies and 20 million shareholders while processing about $500 billion in annual payments. The transaction includes $1.85 billion of assumed debt and roughly $2.35 billion in Bullish stock, according to the deal announcement.

Licensing demands, established issuer relationships and the trust placed in recordkeepers create high entry barriers for transfer-agent services, Lee said. Although the structure could concentrate activity among a limited number of providers, he argued that regulated and interoperable registers could reduce the fragmentation that prevents tokenized shares from becoming fungible.

Under Lee’s preferred model, several authoritative registers would operate under clear oversight and communicate with one another, while exchanges compete through liquidity and execution. The Bullish transaction is expected to close in early 2027, subject to regulatory approvals, with Equiniti’s management retaining responsibility for daily operations, compliance duties and client relationships.

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Analyst Flags Ethereum Breakout Setup With $15K Target

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Ethereum (ETH) is retesting a resistance line it has only reached twice before, in 2021 and again around 2025, and trader Crypto Patel says that makes this the “biggest breakout setup yet” for the cryptocurrency.

In a chart posted Friday, Patel mapped a path toward $5,000, then $10,000, then $15,000 if the line breaks, even as ETH was trading near $2,500, still less than half its all-time high.

The Chart Behind the $15K Call

“$ETH is retesting a multi-year resistance zone for the 3rd time after holding its long-term accumulation support,” stated Patel as he shared a chart that traced a descending trendline from 2018 to 2021, marked by three lower highs before ETH broke out into that year’s rally.

The same horizontal resistance capped the price at the 2021 peak and again near 2025, and the current test is drawn as the third touch of that line.

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Below it, a wide band the analyst called the “Best Accumulation Zone” has caught every major pullback since, with a rising trendline running through it that ETH is still sitting just above, around $2,460 on the chart’s own reading.

The target ladder is more granular than the $5K, $10K, $15K shorthand in Patel’s caption suggests. The chart itself marks $3,270 and $4,892 as the first two levels, with $5,500 also flagged, before the path opens toward $10,000 and then $15,000.

At the time of writing, spot ETH had changed little in 24 hours, but it was down about 1% on the week and roughly 44% below where it had been trading a year ago. However, over one month, it showed gains of 31%, although even that jump kept the asset 50% below its August 2025 all-time high.

Trading volume jumped close to 28% in the past 24 hours to near $16.3 billion, a sign of fresh activity around the level Patel is watching.

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Experts Split Between Breakout and Pullback

Analyst NoName, posting on Thursday, offered a different perspective, noting that ETH had just finished a Wave 3 impulsive move and writing that “the next phase of the structure should be a Wave 4 correction.”

They pointed to $2,324 as the first support to watch, with a bounce toward $2,784 to $2,966 possible if buyers defend it, or a drop to the $2,112 to $2,222 zone if it fails. Only a daily close under $2,050 would scrap the setup entirely.

Several other market watchers have also been keeping an eye on the $2,500 to $2,550 area, with some expecting a move toward $3,000 after a strong weekly close above resistance and others anticipating a retreat toward $2,000 first.

The post Analyst Flags Ethereum Breakout Setup With $15K Target appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Nighttime Light Exposure Is Linked to Heart Changes

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Nighttime Light Exposure Is Linked to Heart Changes

For most of human history, night has been dark. Very, very dark—no hall light on, no streetlights streaming through the windows, no TV casting ambient light in the next room. Now, however, it’s rare to find yourself in total darkness. 

Recent research has found that might be a problem. Light exposure at night has been linked to higher rates of diabetes, obesity, and hypertension. Last year, researchers connected it to higher rates of heart failure and other cardiovascular problems over 10 years. 

Publishing in the European Heart Journal on September 9, another research team now reports that compared to people sleeping in darkness, people exposed to light at night tend to have structural changes in their hearts. The changes indicate that the organ is working harder than usual, the researchers say, providing further support for the idea that nighttime light exposure is connected to worse cardiovascular outcomes.

How does light at night affect health?

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This study drew on data from fitness monitors that were worn for a week by a subset of participants in the UK Biobank, which collects health and lifestyle information on half a million people. The monitors contain a light sensor, which allows for an objective measurement of light exposure, says Dr. Lu Qi, a professor of epidemiology at Tulane University and an author of the new study. “That’s very unique, because most previous studies have used self-reported light exposure,” he says.  

The other unique feature of the study involved cardiac MRIs that were taken of peoples’ hearts after they had worn the fitness monitors but before they developed any diagnosable heart problems. After sorting the participants into those with minimal light exposure at night, and those who routinely slept with at least 3 lux of light streaming over them (the equivalent of roughly three candles held three feet away), the researchers examined these scans for structural and functional changes, like the thickness of the heart’s walls and the movement of the valves that keep blood pumping.

They found that the hearts of people exposed to nighttime light had thicker walls and were less effective at pumping. These changes do not themselves indicate heart disease, but precede its development, says Qi. 

These results—correlational as they are—add greater detail to the picture sketched by earlier work finding a correlation between light at night and a higher risk of heart disease, says Angus Burns, an instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School who co-wrote a paper last year on the trend. “They show the same associations of light at night with stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure,” he says. “The place where it really extends the literature is the MRI scans of the heart, which was fantastic.”  

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How much light is too much light?

With this kind of study, it’s impossible to eliminate the possibility that these heart problems and light exposure are both linked with another unknown factor in these people’s lives. But overall, the research suggests that light exposure at night may be a driver of metabolic and cardiovascular problems.  

It’s not entirely clear what was causing the light exposure seen in the data—whether it was lights on elsewhere in the house, lights on in the room, a tablet or other screen on nearby, or perhaps a television left on. But for the moment, the best rule of thumb is to get the room as dark as possible, these studies suggest. It’s also long been a core tenet of sleep hygiene. Turn off the hall light. Put up blackout curtains. Draw an eye mask over your eyes—and know that it could be helping your heart. 

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Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 90%. Where Did It Go Wrong For Trump’s Economy?

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September Rate Cut or Hike Odds. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Donald Trump spent months saying Jerome Powell was the problem. Now Powell is gone, but rates have not budged. On Friday, traders put an 86.9% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates next week.

That bet runs against everything Trump promised. He wanted cheap money, and even picked Kevin Warsh to deliver it. Warsh has not cut once.

September Rate Cut or Hike Odds. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
September Rate Cut or Hike Odds. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

“As an investor, you have to ask yourself: President Trump effectively made rate CUTS a pre-condition for his next Fed Chair. Will Fed Chair Warsh actually raise interest rates in his first rate move since being appointed Fed Chair by President Trump?” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter posed.

Are markets overestimating the chances of a rate hike? No FOMC chair has cast a dissenting vote since 1939!

Warsh Was Trump’s Favored Hire to Cut Rates

Warsh took the oath on May 22, after Trump spent the spring calling Powell slow and late. But Powell did cut, as his committee lowered rates three times in late 2025, finishing on December 10.

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Trump spent the spring calling Powell slow and late. Source: Trump on Truth Social
Trump spent the spring calling Powell slow and late. Source: Trump on Truth Social

Warsh has lowered them zero times, with his two meetings in June and July ending with no change. If the CME FedWatch Tool is enough to go buy, he may not cut again in the next meeting.

That is Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Trump hammered Powell for being too late to cut. Long thinks Warsh fears the reverse.

A hike could actually help lower-income Americans, she argues, by cooling prices.

In July, three officials voted to raise rates instead, and based on what interest rate bettors see, the odds are in their favor.

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Trump still wants a rate near 1%. Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says Trump pressure and midterms are all that hold the Fed back.

Friday’s Numbers Look Concerning for Warsh

Core prices, which ignore food and fuel, rose 0.3% in August. Economists expected 0.2%. Gasoline jumped 3.9% in a single month.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller had warned a hot reading would put a hike on his table. UBS now expects two increases this year.

The White House sees none of that. Kevin Hassett, who runs the National Economic Council, points to core inflation at 1.6% over a three-month window, a shorter window than the Fed uses.

Still, not everyone arguing against a hike works for Trump. Among them is Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis, who argues that a rate hike would go against the Fed’s dual mandate.

This argument comes as the labor market improves, albeit not enough. Notably, 162,000 jobs were created in August, unemployment was steady at 4.1%, and participation was rising.

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“Do not confuse an energy-price shock with demand overheating. Hiking into a recovering job market would be a massive policy mistake,” Lacalle warned.

His point cuts both ways. If energy drove August inflation, no chair was ever going to hand Trump his 1%.

Warsh could still cut later. But he votes on Wednesday. The question is no longer whether Trump got the chair he wanted (Kevin Warsh). It is whether the chair (Jerome Powell) was ever what stood in his way.

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold both slipped on the CPI reaction, but recovered almost immediately.

The post Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 90%. Where Did It Go Wrong For Trump’s Economy? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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The legal drama of imprisoned Sam Bankman-Fried is waiting on its last act

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The legal drama of imprisoned Sam Bankman-Fried is waiting on its last act


The fallen leader of the former top exchange FTX is looking for answers from the U.S. Supreme Court.

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Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate as investors pull $449M in three days

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Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate as investors pull $449M in three days

Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate as investors pull $449M in three days

ARK 21Shares accounted for $164 million of Thursday’s Bitcoin ETF withdrawals, while Ether and Solana funds also recorded net outflows.

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Spark Opens Its USDT Savings Vault To OKX Users

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Spark Opens Its USDT Savings Vault To OKX Users


Spark, an on-chain capital allocation platform that originated as a subDAO of Sky (fka MakerDAO, is opening its USDT savings vault to OKX customers, letting users of the centralized exchange earn onchain yield on their stablecoin balances from inside the OKX app, according to a statement shared… Read the full story at The Defiant

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US CPI Data Sparks Risk-Asset Upside as Bitcoin Eyes $80,000 Mark

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US CPI Data Sparks Risk-Asset Upside as Bitcoin Eyes $80,000 Mark

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $79,000 on Friday after key US inflation data broadly conformed to expectations.

Key points:

  • US core CPI inflation data gained 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2%.
  • Implied probabilities of an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the Sep. 16 meeting rose to 85%.
  • US bond yields will cause Bitcoin pain amid Fed policy tightening, QCP analysis warns.

Bitcoin jumps 3% as “nervous” market digests CPI numbers

Data from TradingView showed renewed BTC price volatility ensuing after the August release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in at 3.4% year-on-year.

 

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

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After initially dropping to $76,000, BTC/USD quickly reversed upward, gaining more than 3% on the day.

The move echoed US equities, which also turned green after a weak start to the session. This was catalyzed by CPI conforming to expectations only a day after the Producer Price Index (PPI) overshot. The S&P 500 was up 1% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.1%.

S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US bond yields also saw snap volatility. On the back of the CPI print, the 30-year yield whipsawed, first reaching its highest levels since June 2004 before falling to 5.309%.

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“This is a nervous market,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a response on X.

US 30-year bond yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As WTI crude oil continued to circle $100 per barrel, the impact of the expanding US-Iran war and associated oil-supply squeeze was noticeable in the CPI numbers.

“The index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month,” an official news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed.

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The release also reported that core CPI increased by 0.3% in August, 0.1% more than anticipated.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

In response, traders doubled down on bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 0.25% at its Sept. 16 meeting. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of such an outcome rising to 85% on Friday, increasing from 60% a week ago.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

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Fed officials are known to be split on the correct path for policy, with governor Christopher Waller last week indicating that he would be inclined to hold rates in their current 3.50-3.75% range should inflation data show at least “some signs of disinflation.”

“What’s the cost of waiting one meeting? Hiking 25 basis points, one meeting right now, is not going to bring the CPI down to 2%,” he told Reuters.

Analysis: Yield surge to become Bitcoin headwind

Discussing the implications of high bond yields going forward, trading company QCP Capital warned that Bitcoin bulls had little to look forward to. This is despite BTC/USD surging 25% in August after the US Treasury announced that it would step up debt buyback interventions.

Related: Bitcoin buyers wary of July sub-$58K floor amid onchain data ‘anomaly’

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“The rise in US yields this year has been driven increasingly by tighter policy expectations and a risk premium common to both stocks and bonds, rather than by growth,” it wrote in its latest analysis. 

“This is the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk-free rate without the nominal-growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves. It directly undercuts the narrative that carried Bitcoin from $63,000 to $82,000 in the second half of August, which leaned on the idea of a Treasury liquidity put providing structural support.”

QCP argued that Bitcoin would ultimately benefit from these developments, but only once buyback operations have had time to inject sufficient liquidity into markets.

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This Oil Stock Sails Near Entry, Profits Soar 452% As Strait Of Hormuz Crisis Flares Up

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Stock Market Rally Leaves Four Stocks Near Buy Points, New Highs

Energy prices soared this week as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz heated up. Oil stock Torm (TRMD) is now eyeing an entry as its profit rockets. The Danish company operates a fleet of product tankers that transport refined oil and petroleum products. These include gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. It operates through…

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