Short-term coin activity remains near historic lows, highlighting weak participation from new buyers across the network.

Bitcoin faced renewed sell pressure on Tuesday, briefly dragging the price down to $62,700 after a 5% decline, as macro concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

New data suggest that BTC remains in a defensive phase as capital continues to exit the network and supply ages steadily without signs of renewed accumulation.

Peak Buyers Now Frozen

Realized Cap, which measures the aggregate value of all coins at the price they last moved, has declined for a second consecutive month. According to the latest analysis by Axel Adler Junior, this indicates that capital continues to exit the network rather than flow into it.

The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently stands at -2.26% and has remained negative for several weeks, which means that coins are either being transferred below their cost basis or that incoming capital is insufficient to offset ongoing outflows. Realized Cap peaked on November 26, 2025, at approximately $1.127 trillion and has since fallen to around $1.094 trillion – a compression of roughly $33 billion.

Daily net position changes continue to hover around zero or remain negative, amidst the absence of new capital entering the market. As long as the 30-day Realized Cap metric stays below zero, the network remains in net outflow mode. A move back into positive territory is the first condition required for a shift toward accumulation.

In addition, HODL Waves data revealed a sharp structural change in coin age distribution that is consistent with this defensive regime. Coins that last moved 3-6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 19% earlier this month. These coins were mostly bought near the last market peak and haven’t moved since.

The share of Bitcoin held for 6-12 months has grown to just over 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of the supply. This shows that few new buyers are entering the market, as per Adler Junior. Most circulating coins were bought at higher prices and are now sitting at a loss, which has left holders reluctant to sell and effectively locking supply in place.

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The growth of older cohorts does not represent strategic accumulation but rather forced holding due to unfavorable price conditions. The structure would only see a meaningful change if coins in the 3-6 month band begin migrating into longer-term cohorts without triggering renewed selling pressure, alongside a measurable return of short-term activity.

Familiar Bear Signal Is Back

Against the backdrop of bleeding capital, an important technical signal that has appeared near the end of past Bitcoin bear markets is starting to form again. According to analyst Ali Martinez, a potential death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart is projected to occur in late February.

In previous cycles, this signal consistently showed up just before the final major drop. With the crypto asset still 50% below its October 2025 peak, Martinez warned that a similar setup could open the door to further downside.

Meta, the U.S. tech giant helmed by Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, is aiming to enter the stablecoin space later this year, pending successful integration with a third-party firm to facilitate payments using the dollar-pegged token technology, according to three people familiar with the plans.

The tech giant, which owns Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram and has more than 3 billion users, wants to begin its stablecoin integration early in the second half of this year, said one of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not public. Meta is planning to integrate a vendor to help administer stablecoin-backed payments and implement a new wallet, the person said.

A second person said that Meta has sent out a request for product (RFP) to third-party firms and mentioned Stripe as a likely candidate for piloting Meta’s stablecoin.

Stripe, which acquired stablecoin specialist Bridge last year, is a long-time partner of Meta, and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison joined Meta’s board of directors in April 2025.

Meta, Stripe, and Bridge were approached for comment, but none responded by the time of publication.

Meta introducing stablecoins would let it open payment rails to its massive user base while bypassing expensive traditional banking fees, and potentially position it as a global leader in “social commerce” and cross-border remittances.

The move would also put the tech giant in direct competition with the likes of Elon Musk’s social media platform X as well as messaging platform Telegram, both of which are aiming to bring payments in-house by becoming “super apps.” This was one of the original goals for the planned Libra project — allowing the social media company to tap its vast networks, including WhatsApp’s peer-to-peer messaging service and Facebook and Instagram’s network and commerce tools, for payments.

Regulatory shift

Meta famously tried to introduce the Libra stablecoin, later renamed Diem, in 2019, only to face strong headwinds due to a less favorable regulatory climate than today’s and a lingering reputational hit from the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

In the face of a pushback against the project by U.S. lawmakers, the Libra Association, as it was then called, scaled back its ambitions in 2020, pivoting to the development of a number of stablecoins pegged to different currencies, as opposed to the original plan of a global digital currency backed by a basket of national currencies.

In the end, Meta’s stablecoin never formally launched, and the project was shut down and its assets sold off in early 2022.

The regulatory climate in the U.S. today is quite different. There are several crypto regulatory regimes underway, including President Donald Trump’s GENIUS Act, which, for the first time, established a legal foundation for U.S. stablecoin issuers and opened the floodgates for market entrants with new tokens. However, U.S. regulators are still only in the early stages of drafting the regulations governing issuers.

That said, the whole Libra/Diem experience has led Meta to prefer relying on a third-party stablecoin payments provider this time around, according to one of the sources.

“They want to do this, but at arm’s length,” said the source.

TLDR

• Meta plans to reenter the stablecoin market in the second half of 2026 through a third-party partnership.
• The company has issued a request for product to select a vendor for stablecoin payments integration.
• Stripe has emerged as a likely candidate to pilot the stablecoin payment system.
• Meta intends to integrate a new wallet to support dollar-pegged stablecoin transactions.
• The renewed effort follows the shutdown of the Libra and Diem projects in 2022.

Meta is preparing to reenter the stablecoin market later this year through a third-party partnership. The company aims to integrate a dollar-pegged token for payments across its platforms. Sources said the rollout could begin early in the second half of 2026, pending vendor selection.

Meta Revives Stablecoin Strategy With External Partner

Meta has sent a request for product to several payment firms, according to two people familiar with the process. One source said the company prefers a third-party issuer instead of launching its own token.

The source said Meta plans to integrate a vendor to manage stablecoin-backed payments and a new wallet. The person added that the company wants operational readiness before the second half launch window.

Stripe has emerged as a likely pilot partner, according to a second person. Stripe acquired stablecoin firm Bridge last year and maintains a long partnership with Meta.

Patrick Collison joined Meta’s board in April 2025, strengthening ties between the companies. However, Meta, Stripe, and Bridge did not respond to requests for comment.

Meta owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, which together serve more than three billion users. The company aims to use stablecoin rails to reduce payment processing costs and expand digital transactions.

Sources said the integration would support cross-border transfers and in-app purchases. However, Meta has not disclosed technical specifications or launch markets.

Regulatory Shift Shapes Meta’s Renewed Effort

Meta attempted to launch Libra in 2019 but faced regulatory resistance in the United States and Europe. Lawmakers criticized the project and raised concerns about financial stability and data privacy.

The Libra Association later rebranded the project as Diem and narrowed its scope. It shifted from a global basket-backed currency to individual currency-pegged stablecoins.

Meta shut down the Diem project in early 2022 and sold its assets. The company has since avoided direct issuance of digital currencies.

The current regulatory landscape in the United States has evolved. President Donald Trump’s GENIUS Act established a legal framework for stablecoin issuers.

Regulators are still drafting detailed compliance rules for token providers. However, the new law has encouraged more companies to explore stablecoin services.

One source said the Libra experience shaped Meta’s new approach. The person stated that Meta now prefers to rely on an established stablecoin issuer.

The company aims to integrate payments without assuming direct regulatory responsibility for issuance. Sources said Meta continues internal planning while it evaluates vendor proposals.

Crypto exchange Binance accused The Wall Street Journal Tuesday of publishing “false information” in a Monday article about the exchange allegedly firing employees investigating funds moving through the exchange to sanctioned entities.

Richard Teng, Binance co-CEO, accused the WSJ of “inaccurate reporting about our compliance program” in an X post. He included a letter to the news organization from the crypto exchange’s counsel in New York City, which said “The Wall Street Journal published defamatory claims,” despite the exchange’s attempts to “set the record straight.” The letter is similar to one Binance directed to Fortune last week over a similar article which said the exchange fired investigators who reported sanctions concerns.

The Journal’s article on Monday said the crypto exchanged fired staff investigators who identified $1 billion that moved to “a network funding Iran-backed terror groups.”. The report claimed to have Binance documents and statements from people familiar with Binance operations, saying that the crypto exchange dismantled the staff investigation into the $1 billion..

Binance claims staff were disciplined

The Journal article includes a statement from a Binance spokeswoman saying the investigators resigned and denied they were fired or suspended for raising compliance concerns.

“Documents, foreign law-enforcement officials and the people familiar with Binance’s operations said the same conduct that broke the sanctions and anti-money-laundering laws has persisted at the exchange,” the Journal article said, referring to Binance’s 2023 settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and other authorities, in which the exchange and founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao admitted to violating federal money laundering statutes..

The news report also mentions $1.7 billion more in 2024 and 2025 that were transferred from Binance-registered Chinese clients to Iran-backed groups, including Yemen’s Houthi militants. The New York Times’ article also published on Feb. 23 alleges the same information.

Both influential U.S. newspapers said the four individuals “fired” by Binance, who worked in compliance and market oversight roles, were dismissed after the crypto exchange concluded they had failed to adequately escalate red flags related to suspicious trading activity and potential policy violations.

A Binance spokesperson told CoinDesk the exchange conducted an “internal review and did not find evidence of violations of applicable sanctions laws or regulations related to the transactions described.”

However, the spokesperson, who stated no investigator was dismissed for raising compliance or potential sanctions issues, said suspicious activity was detected and reported, which is “evidence that our controls are working, not the opposite.”

Rachel Conlan, another spokesperson, told the Times, there is an ongoing investigation and that a full report will be sent to the U.S. Justice Department on Feb. 25.

Binance said in a blog post on Sunday that its “sanctions-related exposure is minimal.”

“Recent reporting on our top-tier compliance is, at best, inaccurate. It presents a distorted, jumbled account that relies on false claims by disgruntled former employees. This incomplete and flawed viewpoint reflects a lack of understanding of general compliance control processes for crypto exchanges,” the blog post, which was published prior to the Wall Street Journal’s report.

Large US investors reduced their Bitcoin ETF holdings in late 2025, and new breakdowns show the selling came mainly from a few specific groups rather than the entire market.

Bloomberg Intelligence data shared by analysts shows that 13F filers — large institutions that report quarterly holdings to the US SEC — were net sellers of Bitcoin ETFs in Q4 2025, cutting exposure by nearly $1.6 billion.

The biggest reductions came from investment advisors and hedge funds, the two largest holder categories.

13F Filers Sold Their Bitcoin Shares

A 13F filer is a large US money manager (usually with over $100 million in qualifying assets) that must report its holdings every quarter. These filings show a snapshot of positions at quarter-end.

These firm’s reported Bitcoin ETF holdings were lower in Q4 than in Q3. In other words, they reduced ETF shares, not necessarily that they sold physical Bitcoin directly on exchanges.

That helps explain why Bitcoin has remained under pressure even during short-term rebounds. ETF flow data shows repeated daily outflows in recent weeks, including several large red days in February.

Who Sold the Most

The category-level data shows the largest net reductions came from:

• Investment Advisors: about -21,831 BTC
• Hedge Fund Managers: about -7,694 BTC

Other categories, such as brokerages and banks also reduced exposure. 

However, some groups increased holdings, including holding companies and government-related entities.

This does not mean “all institutions turned bearish.” Many firms use Bitcoin ETFs for hedging, arbitrage, or short-term trading, not just long-term bets.

However, the broader signal is clear. Big-money positioning weakened, and that matches the recent ETF outflow trend. 

Until daily ETF flows stabilize and turn positive for more than a few sessions, Bitcoin may remain in a fragile, relief-rally phase rather than a full recovery.

Gold prices have recovered to $5,161 per ounce after January’s dramatic crash — and the epicenter of the rebound points squarely at China.

But this time, the story is bigger than speculation. Beijing is making a coordinated push to reshape the global gold market from the ground up.

The Hainan Arbitrage

Hainan’s new zero-tariff regime was designed to showcase China’s openness to foreign imports. The early numbers suggest it’s working — at least on the surface.

Hainan launched island-wide customs-free operations on Dec. 18. The nine-day Spring Festival holiday was the first major test. Offshore duty-free sales hit 2.72 billion yuan ($390.8 million), up 30.8% year-on-year, with 325,000 shoppers, according to Haikou Customs data reported by the Moodie Davitt Report on Feb. 24. The momentum had been building since December. January sales reached 4.86 billion yuan ($693.5 million), up 46.8% year-on-year, per Xinhua.

Gold jewelry remained a top draw during the holiday. China Daily reported on Feb. 23 that zodiac-inspired pieces and investment-grade bullion flew off shelves even as prices vaulted back above 1,500 yuan per gram. The Moodie Davitt Report confirmed jewellery and watches ranked among the top-selling categories at CDF Sanya, the island’s flagship duty-free complex.

The Global Times reported on Feb. 25 that leading brands Laopu Gold and Chow Tai Fook launched aggressive promotional campaigns during the holiday, including gram-based discounts and fee waivers for craftsmanship. A Chow Tai Fook salesperson in Beijing confirmed the increased foot traffic and purchases.

The price advantage in Hainan remains significant. Yicai Global reported in January that Chow Tai Fook gold costs roughly 1,250 yuan per gram in Hainan versus 1,430 yuan on the mainland. A 40-gram bracelet can save buyers 13,000 to 14,000 yuan with government subsidies factored in.

The pattern suggests something deeper about China’s consumer economy. Given a tax break, the middle class isn’t spending on luxury — it’s hedging with gold.

Hong Kong’s Bid for Global Bullion Dominance

While retail buyers flock to Hainan, Beijing is playing a far larger game. Hong Kong’s Undersecretary for Financial Services Joseph Chan announced at the Year of the Horse’s first gold trading session that the government will make a “full push” to transform the city into a regional gold storage and trading hub.

The plan is ambitious: expand Hong Kong’s gold storage capacity to over 2,000 metric tonnes within three years, launch a fully state-owned gold clearing system with trial operations later this year, and deepen alignment between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Hong Kong’s market.

The objective is explicit — expanding China’s market share and influence over international gold pricing. Western financial centers have historically controlled that domain.

The initiative goes beyond domestic ambitions. Several Asian nations have expressed interest in storing sovereign gold with the SGE as it expands offshore vaults. Cambodia’s central bank is expected to be among the first to use SGE offshore vaults. It may store part of its 54 tonnes of gold reserves in Shenzhen’s bonded zone.

The Structural Bid Beneath the Speculation

January’s blowout — gold down 9%, silver crashing 26% in a single day — exposed the speculative froth. Leveraged retail traders were wiped out, gold ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in single-day outflows, and exchanges hiked margin requirements.

Yet physical gold demand in China barely flinched. Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums widened to $30-32 per ounce above London spot even as global prices cratered. Bank deposit rates have been crushed by monetary easing, the property market offers no refuge, and gold remains the most compelling store of value for households with few other options.

With gold currently accounting for just 1% of Chinese household assets — compared to a projected 5% in the near term — the structural bid from the world’s largest gold consumer is far from over. And now, Beijing isn’t just buying gold. It’s building the infrastructure to price it.

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – As artificial intelligence dominates venture funding and headlines alike, some in crypto have begun to wonder whether the industry has missed its “ChatGPT moment” — or worse, whether capital is permanently rotating away.

Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture firm Dragonfly, rejects that framing outright.

“I would completely dispute this framing,” Qureshi said in an interview with CoinDesk at NEARCON 2026. “Less than 1% of AI users are paying. That means 99% are using the free tier. Crypto doesn’t have a free tier.”

Comparisons between AI’s explosive consumer adoption and crypto’s trajectory misunderstand the nature of the products, he argued. “There is no free Bitcoin. There’s no free Ethereum,” he said, noting that while roughly 80% of Americans have tried some form of AI tool, about 15% have owned crypto — a figure he calls “a mass-market phenomenon.”

To Qureshi, the better lens is global utility, particularly in payments. Stablecoins, he noted, have grown steadily regardless of price swings. “Stablecoin supply has been growing 50% year over year,” he said. “That’s exponential growth.”

Qureshi said the underlying fundamentals of crypto remain intact even if sentiment has cooled.

Following the money

Venture dollars have undeniably shifted toward AI. But Qureshi views that less as an indictment of crypto and more as the market doing what markets do.

“Money is a leading indicator,” he said. “Human beings respond to money — they don’t respond to the reality on the ground.”

Crypto, even after multiple drawdowns, remains a $2 trillion asset class. And unlike AI giants such as OpenAI, which employ thousands, crypto projects often scale with lean teams.

“We don’t have any 9,000-person companies like OpenAI — and that’s a good thing,” Qureshi said. “Crypto is incredibly high leverage as a technology. You don’t need very many people to build things that are world scale.”

He sees the recent contraction as a correction after years of overfunding. “To the extent that there were too many people building too many things in crypto, the market’s correcting that. That’s capitalism doing its job.”

In fact, Dragonfly recently announced a $650 million fund — a move some observers characterized as bold given the current market malaise.

“That’s the best time to double down,” Qureshi said. “Why would you want to double down when prices are high? If you’re raising money and deploying into all-time high prices, that’s when you should be nervous.”

Asked whether something more existential had changed in crypto over the past four months, he was blunt: “Did the fundamentals of the industry change that much? No.”

Crypto and AI: convergence or mirage?

While Dragonfly is exploring investments at the intersection of crypto and AI, Qureshi cautioned against assuming AI will revive crypto’s momentum.

“Is AI going to save crypto? F*** no,” he said. “AI agents using crypto are so far away — it’s going to take years.”

He sees a familiar pattern of crypto attaching itself to whatever technological trend is ascendant. “Chatbots are exciting? Great — we have chatbots with tokens. Agents are exciting? Great — you can buy the layer one for agents,” he said. “As an investor, you just have to slow down.”

That doesn’t mean crypto’s identity is shifting away from its roots. Recent narratives suggesting that the industry has capitulated to Wall Street miss the point, Qureshi said.

“There’s a lot of people saying crypto capitulated and became a tool of Wall Street. I think that’s stupid,” he said. “The whole point of bitcoin is that it encompasses everybody’s usage of the same technology. Nobody’s usage impinges on anybody else’s.”

Cycles, not collapse

Qureshi attributes much of today’s gloom to short time horizons and simple fatigue.

“People in crypto are pathologically short-time horizon,” he said. “Prices were down a lot of times.”

From ETF-driven rallies to tariff-induced pullbacks, volatility has defined the industry for over a decade. The pattern, he suggests, is neither new nor fatal.

“This idea that because prices are down, nobody’s going to use stablecoins anymore? Absurd,” he said.

For Qureshi, the story isn’t about AI replacing crypto, nor about crypto’s decline. It’s about cycles — and patience.

“Chill out,” he said. “It’s not a catastrophe.”

Read more: Kraken’s co-CEO could trust AI with 100% of his crypto — Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi isn’t convinced

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs are recording major outflows as demand weakens across the crypto market, according to a new report from BestBrokers.

ETH ETF holdings dropped from more than 6.1 million ETH in late January to about 5.8 million by Feb. 23. Total assets in those funds also fell from $18.6 billion to about $11.9 billion. The data also shows that the market is highly concentrated, with BlackRock holding about 57% of all ETH in U.S. ETFs – well ahead of Grayscale and Fidelity.

Ether (ETH) has fallen sharply, down about 35% over the past month and nearly 40% over the past three months. Currently, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading at around $1,850, per CoinGecko.

The findings highlight how quickly sentiment toward crypto has soured over the past few months. It also shows how investors continue to pull money from riskier assets amid rising volatility.

Bitcoin Findings

On the Bitcoin side, the report said spot Bitcoin ETFs have also had a weaker start to 2026 after steady inflows in 2024 and 2025. BestBrokers estimates more than $4 billion in net outflows since the start of the year, with total ETF holdings slipping to 1.26 million BTC as of Feb. 23 – the first mid-quarter decline since launch.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the pullback, posting outflows of 19,300 BTC in February, while Grayscale and Fidelity also recorded outflows.

BestBrokers’ report said the divergence suggests institutions are treating Bitcoin as longer-term exposure, while Ethereum funds are more sensitive to market sentiment.