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Rwanda central bank warns against crypto use after Bybit adds franc support

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Rwanda central bank warns against crypto use after Bybit adds franc support

Rwanda’s central bank has reiterated that cryptocurrency activity tied to the local currency remains prohibited, responding swiftly after crypto exchange Bybit introduced support for the Rwandan franc on its peer-to-peer marketplace.

Summary

  • Rwanda’s central bank reaffirmed that crypto payments and trading using the Rwandan franc remain prohibited following Bybit’s P2P support update.
  • Regulators warned of financial risks and barred licensed institutions from facilitating conversions between FRW and crypto assets.

In a statement posted to X on Sunday, the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) made clear that crypto-assets are not permitted for payments, conversions involving the franc, or P2P trading under the current regulatory framework. 

Authorities also cautioned residents against engaging with such services, warning of “serious financial risks and no recourse in case of loss.”

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The clarification followed an announcement from Bybit on Friday indicating that users could buy and sell digital assets using the Rwandan franc through its P2P platform. The move appeared to prompt an immediate response from regulators, who emphasized that the franc remains the country’s only recognized legal tender. Financial institutions licensed by the NBR are also barred from facilitating conversions between FRW and crypto-assets. 

ByBit has yet to issue an official statement as of press time.

Rwanda has kept a strict stance on crypto since 2018, with policymakers focusing on protecting the financial system and supporting the local currency.

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At the same time, the country has been working on a state-backed digital currency, the e-franc rwandais, which is still in the proof-of-concept stage and may move to pilot testing.

Meanwhile, Rwanda’s Capital Market Authority has put forward a draft framework to support “responsible innovation” in the crypto sector.

The proposal sets clear limits, including a ban on using crypto as legal tender, restrictions on mining and mixer services, and controls on tokens linked to the franc.

Data from Chainalysis places Rwanda among lower-ranking countries in crypto usage across 2024 and 2025, with transaction volumes trailing far behind regional peers such as Nigeria and South Africa.

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Bybit continues expanding offerings

Despite the regulatory pushback, Bybit has continued expanding its product offerings globally. 

As previously reported by crypto.news, the exchange has recently leaned into strategies designed to attract users during uncertain market conditions, including a stronger focus on stablecoin yield products and fixed-income-style instruments. Bybit plans to roll out up to $10 million in stablecoin-backed opportunities.

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Crypto World

Constellation Brands (STZ) Q4 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Braces for Volatility

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STZ Stock Card

Executive Summary

  • Constellation Brands delivers Q4 FY2026 financial results on April 8
  • Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share between $1.71 and $1.74 with revenue around $1.87–$1.9 billion
  • Options market anticipates a ±5.6% price movement following the release — significantly above the 2.89% historical quarterly average
  • Beer segment revenue anticipated to remain steady at $1.71 billion year-over-year; Wine & Spirits revenue expected to decline 57.6%
  • Wall Street consensus leans Moderate Buy with a $169.00 average target price, suggesting approximately 11.77% potential upside

Constellations Brands prepares to unveil its fourth quarter Fiscal 2026 financial performance on April 8, drawing significant attention from the investment community.


STZ Stock Card
Constellation Brands, Inc., STZ

Wall Street forecasts are converging around earnings per share of $1.71 to $1.74, although UBS analyst Peter Grom takes a more conservative stance with a $1.59 projection — noticeably beneath the Street consensus. Revenue expectations range from $1.87 to $1.9 billion, representing an approximate 12–13% decline compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous fiscal year.

The anticipated revenue contraction stems predominantly from the Wine and Spirits division, where analysts project a dramatic 57.6% year-over-year decrease to approximately $194.97 million. This steep decline reflects Constellation’s divestiture of a substantial portion of that business segment, creating a challenging year-over-year comparison. Wine and Spirits operating income is forecast at a mere $2.39 million, a sharp contrast to the $99.70 million generated in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the beer portfolio — featuring flagship brands Modelo and Pacifico — demonstrates resilience. Beer segment net sales are projected at $1.71 billion, essentially unchanged from the prior year period. Beer operating income expectations stand at $573.63 million, representing a modest decline from the $623.80 million recorded in last year’s fourth quarter.

Derivatives Market Signals Elevated Volatility Expectations

The options market is incorporating a ±5.6% price movement following the earnings announcement — substantially exceeding the stock’s 2.89% average post-earnings fluctuation across the previous four quarters. This elevated implied volatility indicates considerable market uncertainty surrounding the upcoming results.

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Grom from UBS recently elevated his price objective to $176 from $168 while maintaining a Buy recommendation. He cautioned that investor expectations have climbed heading into the release, noting that STZ shares don’t consistently rally even following positive results. His analysis suggests any post-earnings weakness would likely prove temporary.

Evercore ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein takes a more optimistic view on the forthcoming numbers. His EPS model of $1.73 exceeds consensus estimates, and he anticipates beer sales will surpass Street projections. Ottenstein cited encouraging distributor commentary and strengthening beer volume trends as catalysts supporting his bullish outlook.

Premium Beer Portfolio Drives Narrative

Modelo continues ranking among the top-performing beer brands across the U.S. marketplace, with that momentum serving as the primary driver behind STZ’s positive year-to-date performance.

Ottenstein recognized potential margin headwinds from cost pressures but characterized the overall demand environment as solid. Grom reinforced this perspective, highlighting favorable category momentum and consistent market share expansion.

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STZ maintains a Moderate Buy rating consensus across Wall Street — with nine Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and one Sell rating issued over the trailing three months. The consensus price target registers at $169.00.

During the past month, STZ delivered a +2.7% return, outperforming the S&P 500 composite’s -4.2% decline. The equity currently maintains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

The Q4 financial results announcement is scheduled for April 8.

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Iran War Bets Put Crypto Prediction Markets on the Macro Map

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Iran, Donald Trump, ARK, Trading, Institutions, Polymarket, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders.

Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday.

Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori.  

“Prediction markets price discrete, named outcomes with real capital behind them,” Dori told Cointelegraph. “For crypto in particular, where so much price action is driven by specific binary events, regulatory decisions, geopolitical developments [and] protocol upgrades, that is a categorically different signal.”

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Related: Brandt says Bitcoin yet to bottom, Polymarket sees hope: Trade Secrets

Throughout the Iran conflict escalation, prediction market odds on de-escalation shifted before mainstream financial media coverage caught up and “had direct correlation” with Bitcoin price, Dori added.

Prediction markets enter macro playbooks

On some professional desks, prediction markets are now used as a real-time event monitor during fast-moving geopolitical situations, alongside funding rates, options surfaces and flows, Dori said.

ARK Invest integrating Kalshi’s prediction market data into its investment process shows how event odds are migrating into mainstream institutional workflows.

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Iran, Donald Trump, ARK, Trading, Institutions, Polymarket, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Prediction markets on Iran. Source: Kalshi

In a regulated environment, prediction markets function as a context layer, informing how teams frame risk scenarios rather than serving as direct buy-or-sell signals. 

Related: Prediction markets are testing legal limits in strict Asian markets

“The goal is to decide what to do before the event happens,” he said, arguing that markets that continuously update a capital-weighted probability of war, sanctions or ceasefire are a natural fit for that discipline.

Institutional money and growing scrutiny

The flows are now large enough that institutional investors can no longer dismiss the signal as retail noise. In March, the number of prediction market transactions reached about 191 million, up 2,838% year-on-year, with monthly notional volume rising to roughly $23.9 billion. 

At the same time, traditional exchange operators are moving in. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a new $600 million investment in Polymarket on March 27, deepening its conviction in prediction markets.

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“This is no longer a niche product,” Dori said, adding that the real question for professional investors is no longer whether to watch Iran-linked markets at all, but “how to integrate them in a way that adds genuine analytical value rather than simply adding a new source of noise.”

The boom is also drawing tougher questions about fairness and integrity. Six Polymarket traders netted around $1 million betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran in late February, sparking insider trading concerns.

The platform also pulled a market on a missing US pilot on Saturday after backlash over over related wagers.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder

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