Bitcoin starts the week with new August highs as traders weigh the impact of crunch US inflation data.

Key points:

• US CPI and PPI data comes amid fluctuating bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes in 2026.
• The Japanese yen remains at the forefront as it creeps back toward the key 160 level against the US dollar.
• Bitcoin (BTC) traders see the area around $65,800 as crucial for bulls after BTC/USD hits new month-to-date highs.
• Larger Bitcoin wallets contrast with retail holders after a conspicuous two-month accumulation spree.
• Baskets of onchain indicators still see the bear market continuing in the second half of the year. 

CPI, PPI data comes at crucial time for Fed

Key US inflation data is due as markets shift their expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.

The July prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The timing of the release is important — recent US inflation cues have given mixed signals to Fed watchers, while resolution of the US-Iran war likewise remains far from certain. The latter has implications for CPI in particular, given oil’s price sensitivity to events around the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

“Crude oil prices remain ​caught between opposing forces, as markets assess the possibility of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz ‌against ⁠Iran’s conditions for reopening the strategic waterway,” Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research company SS WealthStreet, told Reuters on Monday.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Last month’s CPI and PPI results both surprised to the downside, with the former seeing its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Nonfarm payrolls numbers last week continued the trend, showing weaker-than-expected labor-market conditions.

Both bolstered odds of a more dovish Fed going forward, with markets switching from a 0.25% rate hike probability to a continued pause as the most likely outcome at its Sept. 16 meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 56% chance of a pause as of Monday.

“A week ago, market-implied odds strongly favored a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September. Those odds now slightly favor the Fed keeping rates on hold, with just one hike before pausing well into next year,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.

Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Mosaic added that last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services data pointed to the US economy “holding up just fine,” despite the data sparking concerns over signs of future “stagflation” — rebounding inflation gauges combined with slow economic growth and rising unemployment. 

Yen reverses days after US intervention

The US role in manipulating the Japanese yen remains a key point on the radar for traders worldwide after the first joint US-Japanese intervention since the late 1990s. 

After JPY/USD weakened to its lowest levels since 1986 at the start of August, the New York Fed, acting on behalf of the US Treasury, purchased yen using euros via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, or ESF, a stockpile of foreign exchange reserves.

At the time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the door was open to repeat interventions in future. 

“We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen,” he wrote in a post on X.

In the interim, however, the yen has begun to weaken again after initially strengthening to around 156 per dollar. At the time of writing, it was back above 158.50, closing in on the key 160 level once more.

Analyzing the history of yen interventions, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, warned that the mechanism would be unable to change the status quo on its own.

“You’d think — given everything that’s getting thrown at markets — that the yen would have risen more than during the previous two intervention episodes we saw earlier this year, but that’s not true,” he wrote in a blog post on Friday. He said:

“Price action is comparable to the NY Fed’s rate check on Jan. 23, which came just ahead of Japan’s Feb. 8 general election. That’s underwhelming and supports my general take that this intervention – like past ones – will fail to stop the Yen’s weakening trend.”

USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the longer-term implications for the yen carry trade, a key liquidity consideration for crypto and risk-asset traders.

“For global markets, the question is less about any single intervention and more about whether higher Japanese yields alter the incentives for domestic investors to allocate capital overseas,” trading company QCP Capital commented last week.

Trader eyes BTC bullish divergences with $65,800 now key

Bitcoin saw new month-to-date highs of $65,420 into Sunday’s weekly close, subsequently consolidating progress as TradFi markets returned.

Data from TradingView still showed BTC/USD acting in a stubborn range, with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) in place as resistance overhead at $65,827.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest market analysis, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe saw three BTC price breakout signals nonetheless locking in on classic price indicators. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and  relative strength index (RSI) both have “strong” bullish divergences on both three-day and one-week time frames, he reported at the weekend.

Alongside a chart showing the divergences, in which the indicators set higher lows while price makes lower lows, Van de Poppe put $65,800 as the key target for bulls to break through next.

“All in all, if $65,800 breaks (which is the crucial weekly level), I expect to see a volatile move upwards as short-side liquidity will be forced to move out of its position after this consolidation,” he said.

BTC/USDT one-week chart with MACD, RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on X.com

The latest exchange order-book data from CoinGlass shows liquidity building either side of spot price, with $65,800 likewise a key area for potential short-position liquidations. The new August highs appeared not to catch traders by surprise, with 24-hour cross-crypto short liquidations at $53 million at the time of writing.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Andrew Kamsky, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, eyed a breakout from a falling wedge construction on the daily chart. He suggested that a “decision window” could determine the fate of the range by Aug. 17.

“A rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K, followed by a series of higher lows, could begin forming an ascending triangle and create another opportunity for an upside breakout. A move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup, while a crack below wedge support would invalidate it and suggest that the market is forming a different structure,” he said.

As an upside target, Kamsky gave $72,000 as a “possible scenario.”

BTC/USD one-day chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Large BTC investor accumulation hits multimonth high

Larger Bitcoin investors are drawing attention to themselves this week as new analysis flags a “sharp shift toward accumulation.”

Data from CryptoQuant shows a rapid increase in Bitcoin exposure involving addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC. On a 60-day rolling basis, the cohort’s balance increased by 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9, marking the largest uptick since March 15.

“More notably, the latest reading is nearly double the 23,238 BTC accumulation peak recorded in mid-March, pointing to a significant acceleration in activity among the largest balance group,” CryptoQuant commented.

More recently, larger hodlers have begun to diverge from smaller wallets traditionally associated with retail investors. After initially accumulating through July, addresses holding between 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC distributed around 9,700 BTC for the 60 days through Aug. 9.

“The divergence is notable because it shows two very different positioning trends developing simultaneously: the largest BTC balance cohort is increasing exposure while smaller holders are reducing it,” CryptoQuant said, noting the timing of the accumulation coinciding with the upcoming US CPI and PPI data releases.

Bitcoin accumulation and distribution by cohort. Source: CryptoQuant

Last week, Cointelegraph reported what CryptoQuant called “strong accumulation” between $62,000 and $65,000, with around 0.7% of the total BTC supply — around 155,000 coins —  last moving onchain within that range. At the same time, a record divergence between spot and futures trading volumes has placed doubt over Bitcoin’s ability to recover lost ground in the current climate.

Commenting on daily spot-market turnover relative to market size, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, cofounder of onchain analytics platform Glassnode, described spot markets as “virtually dead.”

“Daily spot turnover ratio sits at just 0.32%, the lowest level in our data, while dollar volume is down ~64% YoY. Textbook apathy. A healthier move higher needs participation to come back,” he told X followers last week.

Bitcoin spot turnover data. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.com

Indicators see Bitcoin bear market continuing

On aggregate, Bitcoin onchain metrics and associated price gauges still demand cooler conditions before a reliable long-term reversal hits.

Related: BIP-110 ends with a whimper, CLARITY vote punted: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 9

In separate research, Schultze-Kraft revealed a record “capitulation” phase in a basket of 45 price indicators which make up Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. This compares market health across four-year BTC price cycles, with current conditions characteristic of the final stages of the bear market.

“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” Schultze-Kraft commented on the heatmap’s latest readings last week.

A similar compilation from CoinGlass, which it dubs its Bull Cycle Peak Indicators, currently sits at 32% toward its ideal “sell” zone.

Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators. Source: CoinGlass

The data ties in with the views of an growing number of Bitcoin traders looking at historical patterns to determine BTC price performance for the rest of 2026. This week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital drew particular comparisons to the 2022 bear market.

“Bitcoin is forming Lower Highs here relative to the July upside wick In 2022, August actually developed a Higher High relative to the preceding July,” its weekend post said. 

Rekt Capital reiterated Bitcoin’s current inability to reclaim the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,827 — a classic predecessor of a final bear-market capitulation. 

“No matter the structure however, 4 years ago Bitcoin positioned itself for a bearish retest of the 50 Month EMA (purple) to reject and drop lower later. Today as things stand, Bitcoin is technically positioned for the same thing,” he added.

BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50 EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

People accused of “criminal activity”

Ripple has voted to support two XRP Ledger amendments designed to introduce single-asset vaults and fixed-term institutional lending directly at the network’s protocol level.

Ripple backs XRP Ledger lending amendments

Ripple’s validator has backed the Single Asset Vault and Lending Protocol amendments as voting continues among trusted XRP Ledger validators.

XLS-65, which would introduce Single Asset Vaults, has reached approximately 40% support. XLS-66, covering the proposed Lending Protocol, has received more than 37% support, according to the latest voting data.

The current totals remain well below the activation threshold. An amendment must maintain support from more than 80% of trusted validators for two continuous weeks before it can become active on the XRP Ledger mainnet.

Based on the current default Unique Node List configuration, the proposals would need support from at least 28 of 35 validators. Ripple’s vote therefore moves the amendments forward but does not establish an activation date.

The vote follows the amendments’ entry into the formal validator process earlier this year. As crypto.news previously reported, XLS-65 and XLS-66 are intended to provide lending infrastructure at the ledger level rather than through external smart contracts.

Validators can independently decide whether to support an amendment. Ripple’s vote carries attention because the company remains a major contributor to XRPL development, but it cannot activate the proposals by itself.

How XLS-65 and XLS-66 would work

XLS-65 would establish a standard structure for pooling one type of asset from multiple depositors. A vault could hold XRP, Ripple USD (RLUSD), or another token issued on XRPL while giving depositors proportional shares representing their claims on the pooled assets.

The vault could then supply liquidity to other services, including the proposed Lending Protocol.

XLS-66 would use liquidity held in those vaults to fund fixed-term loans. Unlike many decentralized lending markets, the proposed system would not require every borrower to provide more collateral than the value of the loan.

Institutions would instead conduct credit checks, compliance reviews, legal assessments, and underwriting off-chain. The XRP Ledger would manage the agreed loan terms, including interest, repayment schedules, servicing, and default records.

Loan brokers would connect borrowers with vault liquidity and manage the credit relationship. A first-loss capital mechanism could absorb an initial share of losses if a borrower defaults, offering some protection to vault depositors.

The separation between off-chain underwriting and on-chain execution is meant to accommodate regulated lenders that cannot rely entirely on anonymous borrowers and automated liquidations. For U.S. institutions, using the protocol would not remove obligations arising from lending, securities, consumer protection, sanctions, or anti-money laundering rules.

Instead, the ledger would serve as settlement and record-keeping infrastructure after participating institutions complete the required checks.

Security review clears major lending flaws

The lending code has undergone several security reviews ahead of the validator decision.

Blockchain security firm Halborn completed a re-audit covering transaction checks, accounting rules, access controls, parameter limits, and consistency between protocol states. The review found no critical or high-risk vulnerabilities.

Halborn identified five issues: one medium-risk finding, two low-risk findings, and two informational findings. Ripple addressed, accepted, or acknowledged all five, according to the audit report.

“We are proud to share that we have completed our XRP Ledger Lending Protocol Re-Audit for Ripple,” Halborn said when announcing the review.

The medium-risk issue involved a way loan interest could cause a vault to exceed its maximum asset limit. Ripple resolved that finding, along with a low-risk issue involving a missing freeze check.

The audit does not eliminate default, underwriting, liquidity, or implementation risks. However, it cleared another technical requirement as validators assess whether the amendments are ready for mainnet use. crypto.news covered the re-audit in June.

XRP Ledger applications prepare for activation

Developers are already testing possible applications on XRPL’s Lending DevNet while the amendments await approval.

Yield protocol SOIL has said it plans to become one of the first applications built on the Single Asset Vault and Lending Protocol framework. Its proposed products include lending markets, yield strategies, and tokenized fixed-income instruments.

A demonstration showed users depositing assets into separate vaults and receiving tokens representing their proportional ownership. However, the system remains in a development environment and cannot launch on the mainnet unless validators approve both amendments. crypto.news previously reported on SOIL’s preparations.

Ripple-backed XRP treasury company Evernorth has also identified the lending framework as a possible way to earn institutional-grade returns on its holdings. Actual yields would depend on borrower demand, credit quality, vault terms, and protocol adoption after launch.

The vote comes alongside the release of XRP Ledger version 3.3.0, which includes work on lending, confidential transfers, transaction batches, sponsored fees, and configurable token features. Those changes also require validator approval and should not be treated as active mainnet functions solely because their code has been released.

As crypto.news reported, node operators must upgrade their software and consider each amendment separately.

XRP traded near $1.02 at the time of writing, down about 2.2% over 24 hours and 5.7% during the past week. The validator vote did not produce an immediate positive price reaction, suggesting traders remain focused on whether the amendments can reach the required threshold and generate real lending demand after activation.

Crypto payments platform Coinsbuy says it has covered all client losses after wallets tied to the service were allegedly drained on Sunday. Blockchain investigator SpecterAnalyst reported that more than $7.9 million was moved out across Ethereum and TRON, with parts of the proceeds routed through exchanges and into Monero.

According to SpecterAnalyst’s Telegram post, the attacker initially began converting the stolen funds into Monero via exchange activity. The same report claimed ChangeNOW was involved in freezing a six-figure portion of the assets during the incident.

Key takeaways

• Coinsbuy confirmed an Aug. 9 security incident and stated affected client funds were fully covered from its own reserves.
• SpecterAnalyst alleged that attackers moved over $7.9 million across Ethereum and TRON, with additional steps to route value into Monero.
• Coinsbuy temporarily paused deposits and withdrawals, later restoring both services to normal operations.
• The platform offered a $100,000 reward for information leading to the identification of those responsible, with an extra bonus for help recovering the funds.

Alleged multi-chain drain and attempts to obscure proceeds

SpecterAnalyst’s report focused on on-chain activity tied to Coinsbuy-linked wallets. The investigator said the stolen funds were routed through multiple addresses and then moved onward into Monero through exchange interfaces, a strategy commonly associated with attempts to reduce traceability.

In the same Telegram post, SpecterAnalyst identified three addresses linked to the compromised funds—two on Ethereum and one on TRON—suggesting the attacker exploited access across more than one network rather than relying on a single chain or transfer pattern.

The alleged scale is central to why this case matters for the broader payments market: payments platforms typically sit at a crossroads between user custody, exchange-like routing, and business workflows. When that infrastructure is compromised, the incident can quickly ripple from a single compromised wallet into large cross-chain movements.

Coinsbuy response: coverage from reserves and operational restart

Coinsbuy acknowledged the incident in a statement shared with Cointelegraph. The company said unauthorized withdrawals affected several platform wallets, but that all affected client funds have been fully covered from its own reserves—meaning users were not expected to bear direct financial loss.

Coinsbuy also said the platform is back to normal operation, with deposits and withdrawals restored. SpecterAnalyst previously reported that Coinsbuy temporarily paused both deposits and withdrawals following the incident before reinstating service.

While Coinsbuy did not confirm or dispute the reported $7.9 million figure attributed by SpecterAnalyst, it did not provide additional technical details during the early stages of investigation. The company said it is still investigating and plans to disclose technical information only after its review is complete and findings are verified.

Freezing assistance and what remains unclear

SpecterAnalyst claimed that ChangeNOW helped freeze a six-figure portion of the assets during the incident. That point is important for investors and operators because it highlights how quickly counterparties can sometimes mitigate exposure once abnormal flows become apparent. At the same time, the overall timeline, the exact mechanism used by the attacker, and the full extent of assets that were frozen versus successfully moved were not fully substantiated in the publicly available reporting.

Coinsbuy’s statement did not detail the attack method or explain whether compromised keys, misconfigured permissions, or another failure mode was responsible. For readers, the key takeaway is that the public narrative currently rests on investigator tracing of blockchain activity and the platform’s assurance of coverage, rather than on confirmed technical findings.

Given that the platform is delaying technical disclosure until verification, what watchers should monitor next is whether Coinsbuy’s eventual investigation identifies the initial breach vector and whether it leads to changes in internal controls, monitoring, or custody procedures across its networks.

Incentives for information and possible recovery efforts

Beyond covering client funds, Coinsbuy said it offered a $100,000 reward for information that leads to identifying those responsible. The platform also indicated it would provide an additional bonus for help recovering stolen funds.

Rewards of this type can be a practical lever for incident response, especially when stolen assets are dispersed across exchanges and networks. They can also encourage third parties—such as analysts who can link wallets to identities or brokers who may have custody-relevant information—to share actionable details before assets become permanently difficult to trace.

For users of crypto payments infrastructure, the reward plus coverage stance provides some near-term stability, but it does not eliminate the longer-term concern that vulnerabilities in operational security can recur if root causes are not addressed. The most consequential follow-up will be whether Coinsbuy’s later disclosures point to structural weaknesses that can affect other platforms with similar architectures.

As Coinsbuy continues its investigation and refrains from releasing technical details for now, the next signals to watch are: any confirmed update on the attackers’ initial access method, whether additional funds beyond what was reportedly frozen can be recovered, and what operational or custody safeguards the company says it will change after verification.