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Sam Bankman-Fried parents’ CNN interview fails to lift pardon odds

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Sam Bankman-Fried parents’ CNN interview fails to lift pardon odds

Prediction market traders trimmed the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried after his parents renewed their public defense of him in a CNN interview. 

Summary

  • Polymarket and Kalshi lowered Sam Bankman-Fried pardon odds after his parents defended him on CNN.
  • Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried argued Alameda borrowed customer funds but did not misuse them.
  • The family appeal challenges claims that FTX was insolvent and customers lacked repayment options altogether.

Polymarket placed the chance of a pardon this year at 11%, while Kalshi showed 9%, both lower than before the March 21 interview. The move was small, but it followed fresh public efforts by Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried to challenge the fraud case and appeal for a different view of their son’s conduct.

Prediction markets in the United States showed a slight decline in the odds of a pardon for Bankman-Fried after the CNN appearance by his parents. Polymarket fell by 2 percentage points and Kalshi dropped by 1 point, leaving the chances in single digits to low teens.

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The decline came as the interview brought the case back into public discussion. Traders appeared to respond to the renewed attention, even though neither market showed a major shift. The figures still suggested that a pardon remained unlikely in 2026.

In the interview with Michael Smerconish, Bankman and Fried said they believed the judgment against their son was wrong. Bankman said, “There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud.” Both also accepted that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but they argued that those funds were not misused.

Bankman said Alameda “acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.” He also said “the money was always there” and claimed Alameda had enough backing to cover its positions. Fried said, “All the money, it was there, every penny of it,” while arguing that the assets ended up in the FTX estate during the bankruptcy process.

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The parents’ defense has also renewed attention on their own links to FTX. Bankman worked as a paid adviser to the exchange, while Fried was described as a political consultant. During FTX’s bankruptcy process in 2023, the estate sued them in Delaware, seeking to recover funds and property it said were improperly transferred.

The complaint alleged that they discussed receiving a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas. It also said Bankman helped sustain a culture of misstatements and poor management inside the company. That case was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, which means the claims were not permanently closed.

Appeal and pardon effort face political barriers

In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son. The filing argued that new testimony would challenge three key government claims: that FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022, that customers had no real prospect of repayment, and that Alameda regularly carried a multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX.

The family has also tried to frame the case in political terms. Fried said, “Sam’s prosecution was essentially political,” and argued that parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry. Still, public support for a pardon appears limited. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, “I hope the president doesn’t fall for that. […] He hurt a lot of people.” 

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Trump has also reportedly indicated that he would not pardon Bankman-Fried, leaving betting market traders with little reason to raise the odds.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin, Coinbase, Strategy, Gemini, Galaxy swept up in market rout

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Market Cap Drawdown (Assets by market Cap)

Crypto stocks are getting hit hard Friday as weakness in U.S. equities rippled through high-risk assets, driving bitcoin below $66,000.

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) and digital asset conglomerate Galaxy (GLXY) dropped nearly 7%, while exchange Gemini (GEMI) slid almost 9%, marking one of the steepest losses in the group. Crypto-friendly broker Robinhood (HOOD) also fell nearly 6% as increasing its stock buyback pace offered little help in arresting the downtrend.

Bitcoin-linked balance sheet plays also moved lower. Strategy (MSTR) and Twenty One Capital (XXI) plunged about 6%. Ethereum-focused treasury names such as Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) and Sharplink Gaming (SBET) were down roughly 5%.

Miners — many of which trade as leveraged bets on both bitcoin and AI infrastructure — extended their declines. Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), IREN (IREN), HIVE Digital (HIVE) and Hut 8 (HUT) all posted 5%-8% losses.

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Even MARA (MARA) and Bitdeer (BTDR), which outperformed Thursday, have given back all their gains and were down 6% and 8%, respectively, joining the sector-wide plunge.

$17 trillion wipe-out

The Federal Reserve faces an increasingly complicated backdrop, weighing renewed inflation pressure from rising oil prices against signs of a deteriorating labor market.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that higher gas costs could dent consumer spending while describing hiring conditions as “fragile.” Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said the war in Iran created “new risks to both inflation and growth.”

The 10-year Treasury bond yield, which hit nearly 4.5% earlier Friday, erased today’s rise following the central bankers’ remarks. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, fell all the way back to 3.91% after earlier rising to 4.03%.

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Still, investors have turned from predominantly expecting rate cuts this year to consider the central bank hiking rates in face of rising inflation.

The selloff over the past months has been broad across equities, with roughly $17 trillion in market cap wiped out from peak levels across the Magnificent Seven — the seven largest tech stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) — gold, silver, and bitcoin .

Bitcoin reached its all-time high in early October at $126,000, while gold, silver and U.S. equities peaked in late January before reversing sharply. Since then, bitcoin is down around 45%, silver has fallen 45%, gold roughly 20%, and the Magnificent Seven have all entered double digit drawdowns from their peaks.

Market Cap Drawdown (Assets by market Cap)
Market Cap Drawdown (Assets by market Cap)

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has now entered correction territory, trading more than 10% off its January all time high. The broad-based S&P 500 is inching closer to a correction, too, currently down 8.5%.

While bonds have also been hit hard, global fixed-income markets remain under broad pressure, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down around 0.3% on Friday and 5% over the past month since the conflict began.

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Over the same period, the S&P 500 has fallen roughly 6%, highlighting the underperformance of the traditional 60/40 portfolio as global yields continue to rise, weighing on sovereign debt markets.

Monday relief, Friday risk-off

This week has followed a familiar playbook seen since the Middle East conflict started in late February, with strong gains on Monday, partly driven by relief that “Black Monday” scenario did not occur, averaging around 3%, followed by steady profit taking into weakness as the week progresses, particularly as optimism fades around the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening.

By Thursday and Friday, performance typically deteriorates further as investors reduce risk ahead of the weekend amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

BTC Return By Day (Velo)
BTC Return By Day (Velo)

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Crypto World

Incentive Design Could Change Retail Investors’ Fortunes

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Talos Extends Series B to $150M with Robinhood, Sony Backing

Opinion by: Ilya Tarutov, founder of Tramplin

Crypto hasn’t struggled because the technology was flawed. Instead, it faltered as a result of the incentive structures the industry created, which have quietly turned it into something that works against the very people it was supposed to serve.

Since 2017, every crypto market cycle has followed the same pattern. Each cycle started with excitement, followed by retail inflows, a velocity trap and catastrophic drawdowns, and ended in an erosion of trust that takes months, if not years, to rebuild. Each cycle begins with optimism, peaks at overconfidence and concludes with panic and despair.

Most of the time, crypto users are quick to blame market conditions, macro headwinds and regulation. Yes, they’re important factors. What actually determines outcomes, cycle after cycle, is how the incentives are designed.

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Crypto loses everyday users because the system quietly pushes them to take the biggest risks. This begins with psychology: Traders often adopt the mindset that “the higher the return desired, the greater the risk required.”

A small token balance earning just a fraction of a percent through staking doesn’t feel like real progress. Yes, the staking market surpassed $245 billion, but platforms generally offer 2%-10% APY, which, for balances of a couple thousand dollars or less, might yield less than $100 in annual profits. 

Meanwhile, take derivatives platforms. They provide their users sophisticated and high-leverage trading opportunities and processed a record $85.7 trillion in trading volume in 2025.

“Just stake” isn’t enough anymore

Native staking is straightforward and relatively safe; rewards come directly from the network itself. Staking alone doesn’t fix the deeper problem. The platforms built around it still promote speculation, high leverage, trading driven by FOMO and risky looping strategies.

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What retail investors need is a way to participate without constant exposure to risk or serving as exit liquidity for faster, better-informed market players. 

Related: Hybrid governance program gives tokenholders a voice on this platform

What’s the solution? Creating a savings product with capital preservation as a core design goal.

The “savings layer” concept

A crypto savings layer needs to be built around a clear set of rules. These principles are non-negotiable, as they have a great, positive influence on user behavior. Examples of this include capital preservation, full transparency and rewards for discipline over speed or speculation. The savings layer should also work just as well for a 10-USDt (USDT) balance as for a 100,000-USDt one. 

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The “real” world already offers products designed around trust and capital preservation, rather than speculation.

Consider the United Kingdom’s Premium Bonds. They don’t promise high fixed yields. What they do is preserve your capital while giving you a chance at prizes.

According to NS&I, 71,722,056 prizes were paid out in 2025, totaling 4.95 billion pounds ($6.6 billion), with over 470,000 new accounts opened and eligible Premium Bonds holdings growing to 134.6 billion pounds.

Yes, it is not a blockchain product. It’s a well-designed savings program. The lesson is still simple: There’s a reason to participate, you understand how it works and your money stays safe.

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In the United States, prize-linked savings has gained traction for similar reasons. This kind of incentive layer makes it easier for people to build consistent saving habits.

The mechanics of a “saving layer concept” in crypto must be simple enough to explain in one or two sentences. 

If a person can’t explain in plain terms to their friends where their rewards come from, that means the design isn’t transparent enough. Whether rewards are generated from transparent sources or from a clearly defined chance-based model, the system must be honest about what it can offer people, and what it cannot. 

The most crucial aspect is that incentives must work even with small balances. The system must reward consistency over speed, and discipline over speculation, so that staying involved matters more than getting in early.

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Just as important is what the system should not do. Destructive risk shouldn’t be the default option, as the goal is to minimize losses, keep users in profit and encourage long-term participation. 

That is what a savings layer actually means: a system designed to help everyday users stay in the game, not one that quietly pushes them out.

Rewriting the system

If the next cycle doesn’t introduce ways to protect everyday users, they will keep experiencing crypto as a story that always ends the same way: big hype, big promises and painful collapses.

What needs to change is not the technology but what the technology is optimized for. Products must be built to reduce losses, not to maximize turnover. These changes must take place now, unless industry players want to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

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Crypto’s future comes down to a single choice: protect everyday users or keep optimizing for short-term gains. Only one of those leads somewhere worth going.

Opinion by: Ilya Tarutov, founder of Tramplin.