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S&P 500 Index and VOO stock drops as Wall Street bank predicts more downside
The S&P 500 Index and VOO, its biggest exchange-traded fund, plunged for three consecutive days, reaching its lowest level since November last year.
Summary
- The S&P 500 Index continued its strong downward trend.
- JPMorgan analysts expect the index to continue falling this month.
- The index may still rebound later this year if Donald Trump capitulates on his war.
The blue-chip index, which tracks the biggest companies in the United States, dropped to $6,637, down by over 5.2% from its highest point this year.
This retreat happened as the crisis in the Middle East escalated, pushing crude oil prices to the highest point in years. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate rose to over $115 before paring back the gains.
The rising crude oil prices pushed US bond yields higher, with the 10-year rising to 4.17% and the 30-year hitting 4.766%. This surge is a sign that market participants expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish tone this year.
JPMorgan predicts a S&P 500 Index crash
Wall Street analysts are getting antsy about the market. In a research note, analysts at JPMorgan predicted that the index will move into a correction if the war continues.
Dropping into a correction, which is defined as a 10% drop from its peak, will push it to $6,300, its lowest level since August last year.
However, the analyst noted that signs of an off-ramp on the war in Iran will invalidate the bearish outlook. He noted:
“A definitive off-ramp to the conflict will end this tactical call as the underlying macro fundamentals remain supportive of risk-assets.”
Similarly, Yardeni, a top research company, boosted its odds of a market meltdown to 35% from the previous 20%.
Still, as we wrote earlier, there is a possibility that the S&P 500 and VOO stock will bounce back as President Donald Trump often pays close attention to the stock market and inflation. As such, there is a possibility that he will start to capitulate soon.
Looking ahead, the S&P 500 Index will react to the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will come out on Wednesday.
Economists expect the report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.5% in February. A higher inflation than that, coupled with the rising oil prices, may also push Trump to capitulate on his war.
The index will also react to the upcoming Oracle earnings, which will come out on Tuesday. Oracle has become a major player in the artificial intelligence industry thanks to its huge backlog.
Anthropic, the creator of the AI software Claude, has sued the Trump administration for what it says is an “unlawful campaign of retaliation” after the company refused to allow the military unrestricted use of its technology.
Anthropic sued multiple government agencies and officials in a California federal court on Monday, asking the court to reverse the Department of Defense’s decision to label the company a “supply chain risk.”
It also seeks to overturn US President Donald Trump’s directive to federal employees to stop using Claude. Anthropic also filed suit in a Washington, D.C., appeals court to challenge the Defense Department’s decision.
“These actions are unprecedented and unlawful,” Anthropic argued. “The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech.”
Claude “never tested” for uses wanted by Pentagon
Last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is named in the lawsuit, moved to label Anthropic as a supply chain risk, which was finalized on March 3, meaning any person or business doing business with the military can’t also deal with Anthropic.
It is the first time an American company has been designated a supply chain risk, a label usually reserved for companies tied to foreign adversaries.
The US government and the Pentagon have used Anthropic since 2024, and the company’s technology is the first AI to be deployed for use in classified work.
Anthropic said that Hegseth’s decision came after he demanded the company “discard its usage restrictions altogether,” but Anthropic maintained its technology shouldn’t be used for lethal autonomous warfare and mass surveillance of Americans, clauses that were always part of its government contracts.
“Anthropic has never tested Claude for those uses,” the company said in its lawsuit. “Anthropic currently does not have confidence, for example, that Claude would function reliably or safely if used to support lethal autonomous warfare.”
Related: US military used Anthropic in Iran strike despite ban order by Trump: WSJ
Anthropic’s lawsuit also named the US Treasury and its secretary, Scott Bessent, the State Department, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with 17 other government agencies and officials.
A group of more than 30 AI engineers and scientists from OpenAI and Google, including the latter’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, also filed a legal brief in support of Anthropic on Monday.
“If allowed to proceed, this effort to punish one of the leading U.S. AI companies will undoubtedly have consequences for the United States’ industrial and scientific competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence and beyond,” the group wrote.
AI Eye: 9 weirdest AI stories from 2025
In decentralized finance (DeFi), the concept of collateral has long been tied to raw asset value—how much crypto a borrower locks up to secure a loan. But what if collateral could carry more than just value? What if it could also carry trust? Enter Collateral Reputation Tokens (CRTs), a groundbreaking innovation that introduces a “trust score” into the lending process, reshaping risk assessment in multi-chain finance.
What Are Collateral Reputation Tokens?
Collateral Reputation Tokens are digital assets that embed a reputation score derived from a borrower’s historical behavior across blockchain networks. Unlike traditional collateral, which is purely quantitative, CRTs incorporate qualitative insights about past loan performance, defaults, and repayment consistency. Essentially, each CRT carries a “trust rating” that lenders can use to evaluate a borrower’s reliability beyond simple asset ownership.
How CRTs Work
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Historical Behavior Tracking: Borrowers’ repayment histories, defaults, and liquidation events are recorded and verified across chains. Advanced oracles and decentralized identity protocols consolidate this data into a unified score.
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Score Encoding: This behavior is encoded into a CRT, which can then be used as collateral on lending platforms. The higher the score, the more trust the token represents.
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Cross-Chain Compatibility: CRTs are designed to be interoperable, meaning a borrower’s reputation on one blockchain contributes to their trustworthiness on another. This creates a global credit profile in DeFi.
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Dynamic Adjustment: Scores update in real time as new behavioral data emerges. Timely repayments increase trust, while defaults lower the CRT’s score, affecting its collateral value.
Advantages of Collateral Reputation Tokens
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Reduced Over-Collateralization: Traditional DeFi loans often require 150–200% collateral. CRTs allow trusted borrowers to access loans with lower collateral ratios.
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Incentivized Good Behavior: Borrowers have a tangible reason to maintain consistent repayment records, as their trust score directly affects borrowing power.
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Enhanced Cross-Chain Lending: Lenders can make informed decisions even with borrowers from unfamiliar ecosystems. CRTs function as a portable credit reputation.
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Efficient Capital Use: By quantifying trust, platforms can allocate liquidity more effectively, potentially reducing interest rates for high-reputation borrowers.
Challenges to Consider
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Privacy Concerns: Aggregating behavioral data across chains raises questions about user privacy and the handling of sensitive financial information.
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Score Manipulation: Ensuring CRTs accurately reflect trustworthiness requires robust, tamper-resistant oracles and decentralized identity verification systems.
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Market Adoption: Lenders and borrowers must buy into the idea of reputation-weighted collateral, which may take time to gain mainstream traction.
The Future of DeFi Lending
Collateral Reputation Tokens represent a shift from purely asset-backed lending to trust-driven finance. By quantifying reliability and extending it across chains, CRTs could pave the way for more sophisticated credit markets in DeFi, where risk is measured not only in tokens but also in proven behavior.
In the evolving DeFi landscape, trust is becoming as valuable as capital—and CRTs might just be the first currency of credibility.
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U.S. stocks and crypto slipped on Monday as Iran–Israel tensions, CPI sticky inflation and a weaker dollar rattled risk appetite and reinforced JPMorgan’s tactically bearish stance.
Summary
U.S. markets are being yanked back into macro reality as rising geopolitical risk, CPI and sticky inflation concerns and a weaker dollar collide with frothy risk assets. JPMorgan’s trading desk warned that an Iran war “could trigger the S&P 500 index to drop by as much as 10% from its peak,” adding that they are now “tactically bearish” on U.S. equities as oil climbs above $100 per barrel.
At the open, all three major U.S. equity benchmarks moved sharply lower, with the Dow Jones down 1%, the S&P 500 off 0.87% and the Nasdaq losing 0.86%, while large‑cap chip names such as Intel and AMD extended recent declines. Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan, said positioning remains “overall neutral, lacking extreme de‑risking actions,” but argued that in a pullback scenario the S&P 500 could slide toward 6,270, roughly 7% below last Friday’s close. Other strategists echo that caution: “We are tactically cautious as we brace for what could be a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty,” JPMorgan’s team said in a recent note on the U.S.–Iran backdrop.
Inflation expectations are adding another layer of tension. Bank of America said in a client report that February’s CPI print is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s near‑term stance, projecting a 0.3% month‑on‑month rise in both headline and core CPI and “moderate growth in consumer prices” overall. That keeps rate‑cut optimism on a short leash and leaves equities more sensitive to growth scares and geopolitical shocks.
The U.S. dollar index DXY has briefly dropped more than 10 points in short order, sliding to around 99.25 as traders rotate into other havens and reassess the U.S. macro premium. In digital assets, bitcoin traded near $68,200, down about 4% over the last 24 hours, while ethereum changed hands around $3,040, lower by roughly 4% on the day. Solana was recently quoted near $85.50, shedding about 3.9% over the same period as liquidity thinned out across majors.
TLDR
- United Parcel Service shares declined approximately 4.9% on March 9, 2026, following an oil price surge beyond $100 per barrel
- Rival FedEx (FDX) experienced an even steeper decline, losing over 7% during the same trading session
- Last week, Jefferies upgraded its UPS price target to $135 from $130, suggesting potential upside of 38%
- Technical indicators show UPS’s RSI at 30.22, approaching oversold levels
- The company anticipates revenue recovery in 2026 following an approximate 3% contraction in 2025
Shares of United Parcel Service experienced significant downward pressure on Monday as escalating oil prices triggered widespread concern throughout the transportation industry. The stock declined approximately 4.9% to trade near $97.90 during midday Eastern Time.
United Parcel Service, Inc., UPS
Oil prices rocketed past the $100-per-barrel threshold during morning trade, fueled by intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While crude retreated modestly from peak levels, prices stayed sufficiently elevated to maintain investor anxiety over fuel expenses.
FedEx (FDX) experienced even more severe losses, plummeting over 7% during the session. Transportation stocks witnessed broad-based selling pressure as market participants reassessed fuel cost vulnerabilities throughout the industry.
The market downturn arrives at an unfortunate moment for UPS investors. Only days earlier, Jefferies highlighted UPS as a preferred investment within its “HALO” strategy — an acronym representing “heavy asset, low obsolescence.” The investment thesis centers on allocating capital toward businesses with substantial physical assets that artificial intelligence cannot readily replace or make redundant.
Accompanying that recommendation, Jefferies elevated its UPS price objective from $130 to $135. Based on Monday’s trading levels around $97.90, that target represents potential appreciation of approximately 38%.
Oil Pressure Hits Already-Thin Margins
Fuel represents a critical expense category for any logistics operator maintaining a fleet exceeding 500 aircraft and 100,000 ground vehicles. When crude oil experiences rapid increases, the financial impact materializes quickly.
UPS’s current operating margin stands at 8.87%, following a downward trajectory — declining at an average annual rate of roughly 4% over the previous five-year period. Net margin registers at 6.29%. Any prolonged elevation in oil prices complicates efforts to maintain these profitability metrics.
Top-line revenue contracted nearly 3% during 2025. Company leadership has projected a rebound to positive revenue growth for 2026, although that forecast preceded the current oil market volatility.
The organization’s debt-to-equity ratio measures 1.76, representing elevated leverage. While its interest coverage ratio of 7.74 indicates current debt obligations remain serviceable, the leverage profile provides limited cushion against margin deterioration.
What the Valuation Says
From a valuation perspective, UPS appears reasonably priced at present levels. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 15.6, trading below its historical median of 19.63. The price-to-sales multiple registers at 0.98.
GurFocus estimates fair value at $133.78, characterizing UPS as moderately undervalued relative to current market prices. The RSI reading of 30.22 suggests the stock is approaching technically oversold conditions.
Wall Street analyst consensus averages approximately 2.5 — effectively a hold recommendation — with a mean price objective of $114.40.
The company’s Altman Z-Score calculation of 2.94 positions it within the cautionary grey zone, indicating some degree of financial pressure meriting attention. Recent insider transaction activity has skewed toward dispositions, with 25,014 shares sold during the past three-month period.
UPS handles approximately 22 million package deliveries daily across global markets. Domestic United States operations generate roughly 65% of consolidated revenue, while international package services contribute about 20%.
The stock’s 52-week trading range extends from $82.00 to $123.70. Monday’s intraday trough touched $97.01, with market capitalization hovering around $86.91 billion.
As of Monday’s midday session, UPS traded at $97.90, offering a dividend yield of 6.41%.
Key Points
- On March 9, 2026, Anthropic launched two separate legal challenges against the Pentagon and federal agencies
- The Defense Department classified Anthropic as a “supply-chain risk” following the company’s refusal to eliminate AI safety protections
- President Trump directed all federal entities to cease using Claude, the company’s AI assistant
- The AI firm contends that government actions breach First Amendment protections and due process requirements
- Following Anthropic’s blacklisting, OpenAI secured a new contract with the Defense Department
An AI company has taken the unprecedented step of suing multiple U.S. government entities after being placed on a Defense Department security blacklist this week.
The litigation consists of two distinct cases — one submitted to the Northern District of California court and another to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Both filings contest the federal government’s determination that Anthropic poses supply-chain threats.
The controversy emerged from disagreements about military applications of Claude, Anthropic’s AI assistant. Pentagon officials requested unrestricted “lawful use” access to the technology. However, the company maintained its position on keeping protective measures that prevent the system from being deployed for autonomous weaponry or domestic monitoring operations.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth formally issued the supply-chain risk designation on February 27, with official notification reaching the company on March 3.
President Trump escalated the situation through a social media directive, commanding every federal department and agency to discontinue Claude usage, significantly expanding the initial Pentagon action.
The company characterized the government’s decisions as “unprecedented and unlawful,” asserting that both its “reputation and core First Amendment freedoms are under attack.” According to Anthropic, these measures constitute retaliation for exercising protected speech rights rather than representing genuine national security concerns.
“The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech,” the company stated in court documents.
Financial Impact in the Hundreds of Millions
According to company statements, the security designation is already “jeopardizing hundreds of millions of dollars” in revenue opportunities. The Pentagon has awarded contracts valued at up to $200 million each to leading AI developers including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google within the last year.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives cautioned that the blacklisting might prompt corporate customers to suspend Claude implementations pending judicial resolution.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s CEO, clarified that he doesn’t categorically oppose AI-powered weapons systems but maintains that existing AI capabilities lack the precision required for completely autonomous military operations. He emphasized that the Pentagon designation has a “narrow scope” and won’t impact business relationships outside the Defense Department.
A leaked internal communication from Amodei, disclosed by The Information, suggested Pentagon decision-makers were influenced by Anthropic’s failure to offer “dictator-style praise to Trump.” Amodei subsequently issued an apology for the memo’s contents.
The Path Forward
The company indicated that filing lawsuits doesn’t preclude ongoing dialogue with government officials. A Defense Department representative declined to discuss active litigation, while a Pentagon official confirmed last week that direct negotiations between the parties had ceased.
The secondary lawsuit addresses broader supply-chain legislation that could expand the blacklist beyond military applications to encompass civilian federal operations. The reach of such a designation hinges on an interagency assessment still in progress.
Shortly following Anthropic’s blacklisting, OpenAI revealed an agreement to supply its AI systems to Pentagon infrastructure. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, stated that Defense Department requirements aligned with his company’s guidelines regarding human control over weapons systems and rejection of widespread domestic surveillance.
Sources indicate that Anthropic’s financial backers are actively attempting to mitigate consequences stemming from the federal government dispute.
Bitcoin has passed 20 million mined coins, hardening its ultra‑scarce supply just as macro volatility, lost BTC, and a shift toward fee‑driven security reshape the network’s next century.
Summary
- Over 20 million BTC are now mined, with fewer than 1 million left over the next century as halvings push issuance toward zero.
- Lost coins may cut effective circulating supply to roughly 15.8–17.5 million BTC, amplifying scarcity beyond the raw 21 million cap.
- Despite supply being on rails, BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP still trade like macro‑sensitive risk assets, moving with data prints and policy signals.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 20 millionth coin has quietly tipped the network into a new structural phase, one where hard‑coded scarcity collides head‑on with a still‑fragile macro regime built on cheap liquidity and leveraged risk.
Supply is (almost) done
According to real‑time data from CloverPool’s Bitcoin explorer, more than 20 million BTC have now been mined, meaning roughly 95% of the protocol’s fixed 21 million cap is already in existence. Analysts notes that as the 20 millionth coin is mined, 95.24% of the total supply will be in circulation, leaving fewer than 1 million BTC to be created over more than a century as halving cycles grind issuance toward zero. Others quoted in a recent market note described the event as “a powerful testament to the resilience and predictability of the protocol,” arguing that Bitcoin has effectively transitioned from a high‑inflation asset to an “ultra‑scarce” monetary instrument.
That long tail is not trivial: the final satoshi will be mined “around 2140,” with the 2032 halving already cutting rewards to 0.78125 BTC per block and pushing miners further toward a fee‑driven security model, analysts added. On top of that, between 2.3 and 3.7 million BTC may be permanently lost, implying an effective circulating supply closer to 15.8–17.5 million coins rather than the raw on‑chain 20 million headline.
Macro‑driven tape
Price action, meanwhile, still looks more human than the issuance curve. Bitcoin traded around $68,191 at press time, down about 3.95% over the past 24 hours, with a 24‑hour range between $67,790 and $71,520 as spot volumes hovered near $48.5 billion. That keeps BTC pinned in a choppy range even as the structural supply story hardens in one direction only. Ethereum changed hands near $2,000, Solana around $83, and XRP just above $1.33, each slipping or grinding within a few percentage points on the day as majors continue to trade like high‑beta plays on global risk sentiment rather than slow‑moving monetary experiments.
The tension is obvious to anyone watching the order book: issuance is on rails for the next century, but valuations still breathe with every data print and policy whisper. “Scarcity is no longer a thesis, it’s a live parameter,” one analyst said, adding that from here, “macro, positioning, and fees will do more work than block rewards.”
The development team that left Electric Coin Company in January to launch Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) has raised over $25 million from the likes of a16z Crypto and Coinbase Ventures to continue building the privacy-focused, self-custodial Zodl wallet.
ZODL was founded by former ECC CEO Josh Swihart and includes the entire engineering and product team that previously worked on the Zodl wallet at ECC. They resigned due to disputes with Bootstrap, the nonprofit that oversees ECC, over how Zcash should function as a privacy protocol.
ZODL said in an X post on Monday that crypto-focused investment firms Paradigm, Winklevoss Capital, Cypherpunk Technologies, Maelstrom, and Chapter One were among the other participants in the $25 million funding round.
Former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan, Silicon Valley investor David Friedberg and Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi also contributed.
ZODL said the widespread backing “reflects strong conviction from some of the most respected investors in crypto, not only in privacy as a principle, but in the continued growth of the Zcash ecosystem,” adding it would use the funds to expand its engineering team.
The open-source Zodl wallet is one of the main infrastructures powering the Zcash ecosystem.
Zodl wallet was initially launched by ECC under Swihart’s leadership as Zashi before ZODL renamed it to Zodl wallet in February.
Zcash jumps nearly 10% over 24 hours
Zcash (ZEC) was one of the better-performing privacy tokens last year, rising nearly tenfold from $55.86 to $527.84 amid renewed interest in privacy-focused protocols.
While ZEC has been impacted by the broader crypto market pullback to start 2026, it increased 4.1% to $217.80 on news of the latest funding round, CoinGecko data shows.
Related: US Treasury report notes legitimate privacy uses for crypto mixers
ZODL said the Zodl wallet facilitated more than $600 million in ZEC swaps since October 2025, while noting that the Zcash shielded pool has grown by over 400% since its launch in 2024.
The Zcash shielded pool is the protocol’s main feature to mix transactions so details of the sender, receiver and amount remain hidden and untraceable.
Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more
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Regulatory authorities in South Korea are intensifying oversight of cryptocurrency platforms as Bithumb—the country’s second-largest exchange by trading volume—faces a potential six-month partial suspension. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has issued a preliminary notice tied to alleged anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer deficiencies, including dealings with unregistered overseas virtual asset service providers and gaps in customer due diligence. In a parallel move, a reprimand was issued to Bithumb’s chief executive, signaling the seriousness of the regulator’s intent. While officials have signaled that a sanctions decision will be refined in March, the action remains at an early stage and could still be adjusted before any final measures are announced. Bithumb has framed the development as not yet final, underscoring that the scope of any sanction could change as the review unfolds.
Key takeaways
- The FIU has issued a six-month partial suspension notice to Bithumb over AML and KYC controls, including concerns about dealings with overseas service providers not registered in Korea and customer due-diligence gaps.
- A reprimand to Bithumb’s CEO accompanies the notice, a move regulators describe as a serious penalty that could influence leadership decisions and future appointments.
- A formal sanctions review is expected later in March, with the potential for adjustments before any final measures are imposed.
- If finalized, the suspension would restrict new users from transferring digital assets off the platform, while other services would presumably remain available to existing customers.
- Background context includes a high-profile miscredit incident during a February promotional event that incorrectly credited 2,000 BTC per user, triggering scrutiny of internal controls and security protocols.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The development comes amid a broader push by South Korean authorities to strengthen AML and KYC standards for crypto platforms, mirroring a global tightening in exchange compliance and risk controls as regulators expand oversight and enforcement actions.
Why it matters
The FIU action against Bithumb highlights how regulators are moving beyond generic compliance rhetoric to enforce concrete consequences for exchanges that fail to meet anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer requirements. The preliminary six-month suspension, if finalized, would directly curtail a gateway for new users to move digital assets off the platform, which could have downstream effects on liquidity and user onboarding for one of Korea’s largest trading venues. While Bithumb emphasized that this step is not a final sanction and that the scope could shift, the message from authorities is clear: robust AML controls are no longer optional in a highly regulated market.
The episode also situates Bithumb within a broader crackdown across the sector. Earlier in 2025, Upbit’s parent company Dunamu faced sanctions including a partial suspension and a substantial fine, underscoring regulators’ willingness to penalize organizational structures and processes that enable noncompliant activity. Korbit, another domestic exchange, received a significant but smaller penalty in the same wave. Taken together, these penalties reflect a policy pivot toward stronger accountability for the crypto ecosystem, particularly around interactions with overseas providers and customer verification processes.
Beyond regulatory signaling, the incident underscores the operational risks exchanges face in maintaining AML/KYC rigor. The February promotional miscredit—where 2,000 BTC per user was credited by mistake, culminating in a total distribution cited as 620,000 BTC—exposed gaps in internal controls and risk monitoring. That event, which occurred during a promotional period, has implications for governance, incident response, and customer trust as authorities scrutinize how platforms manage incentives, security, and compliance at scale. The combination of a potential sanction and a past misstep illustrates why exchanges are prioritizing robust onboarding checks, cross-border provider screening, and transparent reporting to regulators.
What to watch next
- The sanctions decision timetable: a March review by the FIU to finalize whether the six-month partial suspension will become binding and how it will be structured.
- Scope adjustments: authorities may limit or expand restrictions on withdrawals for new users, depending on ongoing assessments of the exchange’s AML/KYC posture.
- Regulatory activity at other exchanges: continued enforcement against Upbit and Korbit could foreshadow broader policy direction for the sector.
- Internal controls and governance responses at Bithumb: any governance changes, risk-management enhancements, or new compliance programs could influence the regulatory outcome and investor confidence.
Sources & verification
- FIU preliminary notice detailing a six-month partial suspension and the associated AML/KYC concerns at Bithumb.
- Bithumb’s public statements noting the action is at the pre-notification stage and that sanctions, if imposed, may evolve.
- Background reporting on a February promotional miscredit that credited 2,000 BTC per user, resulting in a reported distribution of 620,000 BTC.
- Regulatory actions against Upbit’s parent Dunamu, including a partial suspension and a 35.2 billion won fine in 2025, as reported by local sources.
- Regulatory penalties against Korbit, including a 2.73 billion won fine in December 2025.
Key figures and next steps
The unfolding situation at Bithumb sits at the intersection of intensified regulatory scrutiny and ongoing efforts by Korean authorities to tighten AML/KYC standards across crypto platforms. The FIU’s decision, the reprimand to the CEO, and the March review collectively determine whether a concrete sanction will anchor the exchange’s near-term operations. For market participants, the episode reinforces the importance of compliance-driven risk management, especially for platforms seeking to grow in a tightly monitored environment.
Where to verify
- Official FIU statements or notices related to Bithumb’s AML/KYC assessment and any forthcoming sanctions.
- Bithumb’s public responses or press releases addressing the pre-notification stage and the potential scope of sanctions.
- Independent reporting on the February miscredit incident and its impact on internal controls and regulatory oversight.
- Regulatory actions and penalties involving Upbit (Dunamu) and Korbit, including sanction amounts and the regulatory rationale behind them.
Hyperliquid price is pushing toward a key resistance zone as rising trading volume and strengthening technical signals point to growing bullish momentum in the market.
Summary
- Hyperliquid rose to around $32 in a possible recovery attempt towards $40..
- Volume and open interest climbed, indicating new positions as traders anticipate further price movement.
- Technical indicators show strengthening momentum, with resistance sitting between $33 and $36.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) edged higher on renewed buying, with the token trading around $32.63 at press time, up 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The price has stayed within a weekly range of $29.61 to $33.33, holding near the top of that band.
Over the past year, Hyperliquid has been one of the stronger performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, gaining about 136%. Even so, it still trades roughly 45% below its September 2025 peak of $59.30.
Trading activity has picked up as well. 24-hour spot volume reached about $289 million, a 98% increase compared with the previous day, which suggests fresh interest from traders.
Derivatives markets show a similar pattern. Data from CoinGlass shows trading volume climbing 84% to $1.36 billion, while open interest rose 9.56% to $1.33 billion. This mix open often signals that new positions are being added rather than closed.
Hyperliquid fundamentals grow stronger
Beyond price action, the platform itself continues to expand. Hyperliquid now accounts for roughly 70% of decentralized perpetual futures trading volume, while daily activity on the exchange is estimated at 9.9% of the level seen on Binance.
The network has also built a sizable user base. More than 665,000 traders are active on the platform, and monthly revenue is estimated at around $116 million. According to project data, about 38% of the token supply has been set aside for future ecosystem initiatives.
New features are gradually being introduced. These include HIP-4 outcome trading and efforts to connect real-world assets to the platform.
Supply mechanics may also play a role in the token’s dynamics. Hyperliquid runs an assistance fund that periodically buys back and burns HYPE tokens. Roughly 4.17% of the supply, valued at about $1.36 billion, has already been removed through these operations, reducing the number of tokens in circulation.
Hyperliquid price technical analysis
From a technical perspective, several signals have started to lean positive. The price currently sits above the mid-Bollinger Band, which corresponds to the 20-day moving average. That area, around $29 to $30, has been acting as support in recent weeks as buyers step in during pullbacks.
Volatility also appears to be returning. The Bollinger Bands are widening after a period of compression, a setup that traders often watch for stronger moves. At the moment, the price is pushing toward the upper band in the $33 to $36 range.
Momentum indicators point in the same direction. The relative strength index is hovering in the upper-50 zone. Before the market enters overbought territory, that level usually denotes growing momentum while allowing room for growth.
The chart also shows a pattern of higher lows since the rebound in late January, with buyers continuously protecting the $29 to $30 range. This kind of structure often depicts slow accumulation.
For now, the main barrier sits between $33 and $36, where the token has struggled to move higher in recent attempts. A clear break above that zone could shift attention toward the $40 level, which many traders see as the next psychological target.
If momentum fades, the first support lies near $29.9, while a deeper support zone sits around $26 to $27.
XRP price has taken a brutal hit.
The token is down about 63% from its multi-year high and has slipped below $1.40. That drop has left more than $50.8 billion in unrealized losses in XRP, with a large portion of holders now underwater.
With price hovering near $1.35, traders are facing a big question. Is this deep pullback finally forming a market bottom, or is more downside still ahead?
The answer likely comes down to a few key levels that could decide where XRP moves next.
What the $50B Unrealized Loss Figure Actually Means for XRP Holders
On-chain data shows how heavy the pressure has become.
According to Glassnode, about 36.8 billion XRP are currently held at a loss. That puts the average holder cost around $1.44, meaning a large portion of investors are underwater while price trades below that level.
That creates an interesting dynamic. Traders sitting at a loss usually avoid selling unless support breaks and panic kicks in. But the moment price recovers near their entry, many rush to exit at break-even, turning that area into strong resistance.
At the same time, broader market pressure is not helping. XRP ETFs have seen steady outflows, including a $16.2 million redemption late last week.
With so many holders trapped and liquidity thinning, any sharp drop below current support could trigger a wave of forced selling.
Capitulation Risk: The Levels That Change Everything for XRP Price
Right now, everything revolves around a few key levels on the chart.
The biggest danger sits at $1.28. That is the monthly low XRP printed when momentum completely stalled earlier this year. If price breaks below that level, the next downside target appears near $1.11.
On the other hand, buyers have been defending the $1.31 to $1.34 zone. This area has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and helped stabilize the market during recent dips.
For sentiment to improve, XRP needs to climb back above $1.48. That level roughly matches the average cost basis for many holders, meaning a recovery there could remove some of the heavy selling pressure.
In the short term, $1.43 is the first barrier to watch. A daily close above it would suggest the market is starting to recover.
The post XRP Traders Face $50B in Unrealized Losses as Price Slips Below $1.40 appeared first on Cryptonews.
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