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Stable Yuan, Shrinking Flight: What China’s NPC Means for Crypto

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China Never Stopped Buying Gold. Now It's Building the Machine to Price It

China’s National People’s Congress opened on March 5 with signals that will reshape crypto capital flows for years to come. A stable yuan, record fiscal spending, and a structural push toward equity financing and RWA markets — these are the numbers that matter for digital asset investors.

However, the headlines stopped at China’s growth target of 4.5–5%, the lowest range since 1991. They shouldn’t, because the math tells a bigger story.

A Small Percentage of a Very Large Number

China’s economy surpassed $20 trillion for the first time in 2025, cementing its status as the world’s second-largest economy. Even at the floor of the new target range, China still adds roughly $900 billion to global output this year. The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Poland, and Switzerland each run economies of roughly $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and China is generating nearly that much in new economic activity, on top of what it already has.

In 2025, China contributed around 30% of total global economic expansion, reinforcing its role as the world’s primary growth engine. That share holds even if 2026 comes in at the lower end of the stated range. The rate of growth is decelerating, but the sheer weight behind it is not shrinking.

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Why the Framing Matters for Markets

On the property side, Beijing stopped well short of a sweeping bailout. Policymakers pledged to coordinate orderly risk resolution across real estate, local government debt, and smaller financial institutions. The “white list” mechanism for housing projects continues, and unsold homes will be purchased for government-subsidised use — but there is no aggressive reflation of the sector. That measured stance keeps a lid on near-term expectations for iron ore and copper demand.

For crypto, Beijing’s broader policy package carries more signal than the growth target itself. China reaffirmed loose monetary policy and flagged RRR and interest rate cuts as active options going forward. Total general public budget expenditure hits 30 trillion yuan for the first time, with the overall deficit at 5.89 trillion yuan.

Macquarie’s chief China economist noted that if exports falter, Beijing will dial up domestic stimulus to defend the GDP target. The floor under Chinese liquidity is meaningfully higher than the headline growth figure suggests.

Yuan Stability Is the Real Signal

Beijing’s commitment to a basically stable yuan matters more than the growth number for near-term currency and crypto flows. Analysts see Beijing tolerating gradual yuan appreciation toward 6.70 against the dollar, while resisting sharper moves that would erode China’s hard-won competitive edge. A controlled, modestly stronger yuan reduces the pressure from capital flight that has historically driven Chinese retail demand toward Bitcoin and dollar-pegged stablecoins.

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The 15th Five-Year Plan: Quality Over Speed

The annual growth target is only part of what the NPC unveiled on March 5. Beijing simultaneously released the 15th Five-Year Plan, setting the strategic framework through 2030. Previously, the headline theme was technological innovation; now, a modernized industrial system stands at the forefront, with innovation following directly after. The sequencing is intentional — turning lab breakthroughs into scalable production capacity, not just patents.

Central to the plan is an R&D spending target of more than 3.2% of GDP, a record high aimed at overcoming what Beijing calls “chokepoint” technologies. Advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, next-generation IT, and aerospace are the designated priority sectors.

The digital economy’s targeted share of 12.5% of GDP by 2030, combined with an embedded “AI-Plus” consumption model, is the number most relevant for crypto and digital asset markets. This planning cycle is less about acceleration and more about reengineering the vehicle itself — and at $20 trillion in scale, that vehicle is large enough that even a cautious rebuild moves global markets.

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Quant firm suggests a bullish BTC strategy with a key financing twist

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Crypto majors dive despite tech-led lift in Asian markets

Quant-driven trading firm TDX Strategies is pitching clients a bullish bitcoin trade with an interesting financing twist that helps offset the cost of the bet while reshaping the position’s risk profile.

The Hong Kong–based firm suggested a “bullish risk reversal” strategy on Wednesday, which involves selling a put option (insurance against a downtrend) and using the premium earned to buy bullish call options – essentially funding bullish bets with income from put writing.

This way, the trader effectively pays little or nothing upfront while remaining exposed to a bitcoin rally.

It reflects a broader shift toward more sophisticated, options‑driven positioning, as traders look to stretch their capital further and fine‑tune their risk instead of just piling into spot or straightforward bullish leveraged bets.

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A call option is a contract that lets the buyer bet the price of an asset will rise above a specific level, called the strike price, by a certain date. If the price climbs above that strike, the buyer can profit; if it doesn’t, they usually just lose the small fee they paid for the option. It’s analogous to buying a lottery ticket.

A put option does the opposite. It lets the buyer set up protection against a potential drop in the asset below a specific strike price by a certain date. If it does, the put buyer stands to gain; if it doesn’t, the entity stands to lose the initial premium paid. It’s akin to buying insurance.

TDX’s suggested play combines the two in such a way that the trader becomes the seller of out‑of‑the‑money (OTM) puts (insurance) and collects the premium on one leg, then redeploys it to buy an OTM call on the other leg.

The result is a low‑cost bullish structure compared with simply buying a call outright. An out‑of‑the‑money (OTM) call is an option whose strike price is above the current market price of Bitcoin, while an OTM put is one whose strike price is below the current market price.

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“The anticipated confirmation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader introduces an added element of risk of immediate retaliatory escalation, however, we view any headline-driven market jitters as a tactical entry point,” TDX said in a market note.

“We are looking to capitalize on temporary weakness to build upside exposure in March and April [expiry], favoring bullish risk reversals (funding OTM calls by selling OTM puts),” TDX added.

The strategy is not without risk. By selling out‑of‑the‑money puts, the trader is obligated to buy Bitcoin at the strike price if the market crashes below that level, which means he ends up acquiring the asset at a price higher than its prevailing market value.

At the same time, while the calls offer upside participation, their high strike prices mean they may expire worthless if the rally falls short of expectations. In effect, the trader trades a lower upfront cost for a more asymmetric payoff: limited upside above the call strike and meaningful downside exposure below the put strike.

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The position, therefore, requires close monitoring and may not be suitable for new investors or those with limited capital and a weak grasp of options dynamics.

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Cryptos jump 8% as bitcoin breaks $72,000

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Just as BTC tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

Bitcoin finally got through the door.

The largest cryptocurrency broke above $72,000 on Thursday, its highest level since before the Feb. 5 crash and the first clean move above the $70,000 ceiling that had rejected it three times in the past month.

It was trading at $72,180 in Asian afternoon hours on Thursday, up 5.9% over the past 24 hours and 5.4% on the week, as a combination of easing war anxiety, strong ETF flows, and a broader equity rebound pulled risk appetite back into the market.

The rally was broad. Ether climbed 7.5% to $2,114, reclaiming $2,000 with conviction for the first time since late February. Dogecoin surged 7.5% to $0.095. Solana added 5.3% to $89.91. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.41 and BNB gained 3% to $650. WhiteBIT Coin jumped 5.6%. The only notable laggard was Tron, up just 1.4%.

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The trigger was a shift in global risk sentiment. Asian equities rallied for the first time since the Iran war broke out, with South Korea’s benchmark surging 11% after its biggest drop on record in the previous session.

Wall Street had led the way after economic data eased inflation concerns, though the recovery looked tentative with U.S. and European futures edging lower Thursday morning.

The conflict itself remains unresolved, however. Tehran is still targeting Israel and Gulf states. U.S. and Israeli forces continued striking Iran, including sinking an Iranian warship in international waters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said operations could last “six, could be eight, could be three” weeks. Trump said “we’re doing very well on the war front” and that the U.S. has “great support.”

But markets have moved past the initial shock and into pricing mode. The Strait of Hormuz situation appears to be stabilizing with U.S. tanker escorts underway. Oil pared its early-week spike.

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And the worst-case scenario of an uncontrolled regional escalation looks less likely with each day that passes without a dramatic widening of the conflict.

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Trump Locks In $150M Venezuela Gold Deal While Markets Watch Iran

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Venezuela’s Minerven will ship up to 1,000 kg of gold to US refineries under a new Trump-brokered deal.
  • Trafigura is acting as intermediary, shepherding the gold under a separate US government arrangement.
  • The contract requires 98% final gold purity, with the total deal value estimated above $150 million.
  • The deal marks the third reported resource extraction agreement brokered by the Trump administration in 2025.

The United States has secured a multimillion-dollar gold agreement with Venezuela, marking a shift in Washington’s resource diplomacy. 

Venezuela’s state-owned mining company, Minerven, will ship up to 1,000 kilograms of gold to US refineries. 

Commodity trading giant Trafigura is serving as intermediary in the arrangement. The deal, reported by Axios, carries an estimated value exceeding $150 million.

Trump’s Venezuela Gold Deal: What the $150M Minerven Contract Covers

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum traveled to Venezuela personally to finalize the agreement. 

His involvement signals how seriously Washington is treating resource access as a foreign policy tool. The contract specifies a 98% final gold content standard, according to sources cited by Axios.

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Trafigura’s role is to shepherd the physical gold into US refining infrastructure under a separate arrangement with the government. 

The trading firm has existing logistics networks across commodity supply chains. That infrastructure makes it a natural fit for a deal of this scale and sensitivity.

Kobeissi Letter, a renowned financial markets account, flagged the deal on X, noting the US is “eyeing Venezuela’s gold.” The post attracted attention from traders and macro analysts tracking dollar-adjacent commodity flows.

This marks the third resource extraction deal the Trump administration has reportedly structured since January, when Maduro’s grip on Venezuela reportedly weakened.

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US Resource Strategy Extends Beyond Venezuela Into Asia and Latin America

The Venezuela gold agreement did not emerge in isolation. 

According to posts by analyst Shanaka Perera on X, the same week saw Japan and India ink a rare earth agreement in Rajasthan. India also opened the Andaman Basin to oil exploration during that same period.

A joint US-Ecuador military operation also took place within the same seven-day window, according to Perera’s account. These moves, taken together, suggest a coordinated effort to lock in resource relationships across multiple regions simultaneously.

Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves. For years, Caracas maintained deep financial and strategic ties with Beijing. A shift toward US-aligned commodity flows represents a meaningful change in that dynamic.

Gold markets have taken note. The deal adds to existing upward pressure on gold prices, which have held near record highs in recent sessions. A 1,000-kilogram shipment, while not enormous by global standards, carries symbolic weight given its origin and the political context surrounding it.

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Bitwise Cuts $233K Check to Bitcoin Devs Using BITB ETF Profits

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Bitwise donated $233K from BITB profits to Bitcoin nonprofits in its second annual giving cycle.
  • BITB now manages $2.7B in assets, directly increasing the size of this year’s developer donation.
  • Brink, OpenSats, and HRF’s Bitcoin Fund split the contribution across open-source development grants.
  • Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says BITB is the only ETF with an ongoing profit-share pledge to developers.

Bitwise Asset Management has donated $233,000 to three Bitcoin-focused nonprofits. The funds come directly from profits generated by its Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, ticker BITB. 

This marks the second consecutive year the firm has fulfilled a pledge made at the ETF’s January 2024 launch. The commitment ties 10% of gross annual profits to open-source Bitcoin development support.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Profits Fund Developer Grants for Second Straight Year

Bitwise directed the donation across three organizations. Brink, OpenSats, and the Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Development Fund each received a portion. 

All three groups focus on funding and training developers who maintain Bitcoin’s core infrastructure. None of them operate for profit.

The pledge originated when BITB first launched in January 2024. Bitwise committed to donating 10% of gross profits annually. The first donation followed that same year. This second contribution signals the firm intends to make the practice routine.

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BITB has grown considerably since its debut. The fund now manages approximately $2.7 billion in assets under management. That growth directly increased the size of this year’s donation compared to the first. 

Larger assets mean larger profits, and a larger share flows to developers.

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that BITB stands alone among ETFs in making this type of ongoing commitment. 

No other Bitcoin ETF has structured a recurring donation tied to fund profits. The observation drew attention within the Bitcoin community.

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Brink, OpenSats, and HRF Bitcoin Fund Split the $233,000 Contribution

Brink focuses on supporting full-time Bitcoin protocol developers through fellowships and grants. OpenSats funds open-source contributors working on Bitcoin and related projects. 

The Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Development Fund supports developers in regions where financial freedom is restricted.

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Each organization allocates funds independently based on its own grant criteria. Bitwise does not direct how recipients distribute the money. The structure keeps the donation at arm’s length from any product or promotional interest.

Bitwise shared the announcement publicly via its official channels. The post credited investors who chose BITB for making the donation possible. It framed the contribution as a reinvestment into the ecosystem supporting the ETF itself.

The broader Bitcoin development community responded positively. The model connects institutional capital with open-source infrastructure in a direct, measurable way. Observers noted it creates a feedback loop: more BITB investment leads to more developer funding.

Bitwise has not disclosed projections for next year’s donation. The amount will depend on BITB’s profit performance through 2025.

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Eight Sleep Secures $50M in Funding to Build AI Sleep Agents

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Stablecoin firm Tether has led a $50 million strategic investment round in sleep technology startup Eight Sleep, to help the company integrate artificial intelligence agents into its sleep tech products.    

The latest funding round was announced on Tuesday, with Eight Sleep raising $50 million at a $1.5 billion valuation. It follows a $100 million raise last August. The firm specializes in sleep health products, primarily across bedding and supplements.

In an announcement on Tuesday, Tether expressed its strong conviction in health technology to support “longevity, performance, and disease prevention,” and will collaborate with Eight Sleep to bring artificial intelligence-based health technology products to market.

​Tether has been using its capital stockpile to invest in a wide range of areas outside crypto. Its investments span the gold sector, media, biotechnology and AI. The firm has also made multiple attempts to buy professional football clubs.

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Source: Matteo Franceschetti

“Technologies that can turn continuous health data into clear, practical insights will shape the future of consumer health and wellness,” Tether said.

“The investment is designed to empower Eight Sleep and establish a long-term collaboration to build advanced AI-driven health technology using, among others, Tether’s QVAC architecture and leveraging QVAC’s edge intelligence to enhance Eight Sleep products,” it added.

Tether’s QVAC is a privacy-focused health tech service launched in December that enables users to integrate their bio-health data from multiple services or products, like smart rings, into a single platform, supported by local on-device AI to help users with data management and health insights.  

Eight Sleep has stated that it plans to build a sleep-focused AI agent to support its Pod, a sleep tech product that automatically adjusts bed temperature, elevation, and sound based on factors such as heart rate, breathing, snoring, time asleep and sleep stages.

​Related: Stablecoin giving grows as ‘crypto philanthropy’ matures: Report

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​The Pod already has AI integrations to track sleep health data; however, Eight Sleep has said the funding will help evolve the company’s current AI tools and capabilities.

“We’ve built the most seamless AI-powered health sensing system in the world, and this partnership with Tether gives us the infrastructure to take that intelligence beyond the Pod, into every aspect of personal health,” noted Franceschetti as part of Tether’s announcement.