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Strategy (MSTR) Stock: Analyst Slashes Target 60% Yet Keeps Buy Rating

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MSTR Stock Card

TLDR

  • Strategy stock dropped 5.7% to $125.66 Wednesday, tracking toward its lowest close since September 2024
  • Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating while cutting its price target from $474 to $185, a 60% reduction
  • The company’s 713,502 Bitcoin holdings are valued at $53.6 billion as Bitcoin trades around $73,000
  • Strategy’s premium to Bitcoin assets compressed to 1.06x from previous multiples exceeding 2x
  • Analyst expects Bitcoin to rally 20% in 2026 and Strategy to reach a 1.25x valuation multiple

Strategy stock extended its losing streak Wednesday with a 5.7% decline to $125.66. The drop followed Canaccord Genuity’s decision to cut its price target by 60%.


MSTR Stock Card
Strategy Inc, MSTR

The firm lowered its target from $474 to $185. Canaccord maintained its Buy rating despite the substantial reduction.

Strategy shares are down 72% since July. Wednesday’s decline put the stock on pace for its lowest close since September 9, 2024.

The price target cut reflects Bitcoin’s sharp decline. The cryptocurrency dropped to around $73,000 after hitting record highs above $126,000 in October.

Strategy holds 713,502 Bitcoins worth approximately $53.6 billion. The company’s average purchase price is $76,052 per coin.

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Bitcoin Premium Evaporates

Strategy’s valuation premium has collapsed. The stock’s market-to-net-asset-value ratio now stands at 1.06. Investors previously paid more than 2x the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin recently traded below Strategy’s average cost. This sparked worries about the company’s debt and dividend payments.

Canaccord analyst Joseph Vani dismissed those concerns. Strategy carries $8 billion in convertible debt against $53.6 billion in Bitcoin assets.

Vani said dividend payments on preferred stock can be funded through modest share sales. He described Strategy’s structure as built to survive a prolonged crypto downturn.

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Bitcoin Rebound Expected

The analyst believes Bitcoin has been incorrectly treated as a risk asset. Vani argues it should trade as a store of value based on scarcity and verifiability.

“MSTR shares remain a bit of a lightning rod for media attention when BTC is weak,” Vani wrote. He suggested the business model was designed for market volatility.

Canaccord projects Bitcoin will rebound approximately 20% in 2026. The firm acknowledged uncertainty around timing the recovery.

Strategy won’t recapture its previous premium anytime soon. Canaccord expects shares to reach a 1.25x multiple relative to Bitcoin assets.

Strategy reports fourth-quarter earnings Thursday. The company will likely post an unrealized loss due to Bitcoin’s quarterly decline.

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Vani emphasized Bitcoin’s outlook matters more than quarterly results. Strategy’s performance remains directly tied to cryptocurrency prices.

The company pioneered the digital-asset treasury strategy. Strategy issues equity and debt to accumulate Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin hit its lowest point in over a year Tuesday. The cryptocurrency’s weakness has pressured Strategy stock throughout the downturn.

Canaccord believes Bitcoin’s sell-off may be nearing an end. The firm sees the cryptocurrency as undervalued at current levels.

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Strategy’s convertible debt remains manageable relative to its Bitcoin position. The company’s holdings provide substantial coverage for its obligations.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt