BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new essay on March 2 arguing that prolonged US military engagement with Iran would increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing, ultimately driving Bitcoin higher.

His thesis rests on a four-decade pattern: every major US military campaign in the Middle East has been followed by Fed easing, and he expects Iran to be no different.

War and the Fed: A Recurring Pattern

In “iOS Warfare,” Hayes presented a historical analysis linking US military operations in the Middle East to subsequent monetary easing by the Fed. He noted that every US president since 1985 has launched missile strikes or full-scale wars against Middle Eastern countries, and that the Fed consistently lowered interest rates in the aftermath.

Hayes cited three precedents. During the 1990 Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush, the Fed held rates steady at its first post-war meeting but signaled easing was likely if the conflict dragged on. The central bank cut rates at its November and December 1990 meetings, even as oil-driven inflation persisted.

After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed through an emergency 50-basis-point rate cut, citing downward pressure on asset prices and the need to restore economic confidence. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that followed were accompanied by an extended easing cycle.

Under President Obama’s 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan, rates were already at zero, and quantitative easing was underway, leaving no further room for cuts.

Turning to the present, Hayes framed Trump’s apparent endorsement of regime change in Iran as following the same pattern. He argued that Iranian regime change has been a bipartisan objective among US policymakers since 1979, giving the Fed political cover to ease monetary policy to finance the effort.

Hayes supported his argument with a chart showing that the percentage of the federal budget allocated to the Department of Veterans Affairs rose twice as fast as aggregate federal spending since 1985, alongside declining effective Fed Funds Rates following major military engagements.

Wait for the Cut

Despite his bullish long-term outlook, Hayes advised caution in the near term. He recommended investors wait for the Fed to actually cut rates or begin printing money before adding exposure to Bitcoin and select altcoins.

“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking,” Hayes wrote. “The prudent action is to wait and see.”

Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at the time of publication, down nearly 30% year-over-year and roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. The coin has fallen for five consecutive months, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stuck in extreme fear territory.

Asian markets plunged on Monday as the fallout from US and Israeli military strikes on Iran sent oil surging, stocks tumbling, and investors scrambling for safe havens — but Bitcoin held up better than expected, trading around $66,500 after a weekend that saw it swing between $63,000 and $68,000.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Brent crude up as much as 13%, the conflict is now testing whether Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity makes it a crisis shock absorber or just another risk asset caught in the downdraft.

Asia Opens in the Red, Then Pares Losses

Japan’s Nikkei plunged as much as 2.15% at the open, shedding over 1,260 points. By midday, it had pared the drop to 1.66%, trading at 57,875. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.54%, and Singapore’s Straits Times fell 2.13%. Shanghai held up better, dipping just 0.45%.

Airline stocks across the region — Qantas, Singapore Airlines, and Japan Airlines among them — fell more than 5% as the Hormuz closure disrupted flight routes and sent fuel costs soaring. Chinese airlines were also hit hard.

Oil’s initial surge faded sharply through the session. Brent had jumped as much as 13% at the open, but WTI was up just 4.24% by midday. US equity-index futures also recovered, with the S&P 500 down 0.67% and the Dow off 0.71% — well off earlier lows of over 1%. Gold rose 1.76%.

China’s energy sector bucked the trend. PetroChina opened up 7% in Shanghai, and the CSI Energy Index jumped 5%. Korea’s Kospi, one of Asia’s top-performing markets this year, was closed Monday for a national holiday — delaying what could be a sharp reaction on Tuesday.

Bitcoin, down 2.2% on the day, outperformed the steep losses in equity futures and Asian stock benchmarks.

A Wild Weekend for Crypto

The turbulence began Saturday when US-Israeli strikes hit targets across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 within hours as the total crypto market shed roughly $128 billion in value, with forced liquidations cascading across derivatives markets.

The bounce came fast. After Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, traders bet the power vacuum could accelerate de-escalation, pushing Bitcoin back above $68,000 in thin Sunday liquidity. But the optimism faded as Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting targets in Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, dragging the price back below $66,000 by Sunday evening in New York.

By early Monday in Asia, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,543, with a 24-hour range of $65,149 to $68,043. The 24-hour trading volume topped $43.6 billion, reflecting heightened activity as traders repositioned ahead of the US market open.

Hormuz: The Real Risk

The biggest market risk is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil passes through the waterway. Digital signals indicate tanker traffic has nearly halted. At least three ships have been attacked near the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Economists have warned that a sustained closure could push oil prices as high as $108 per barrel.

OPEC+ moved to ease supply fears on Sunday, announcing a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting in April — more than analysts had expected. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, and four other members are set to boost output. But analysts cautioned the move may offer limited relief. If Gulf flows remain constrained, additional production means little. Export routes matter more than headline output targets.

For crypto, the oil shock creates a dual threat. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts that the market has been counting on. Even with OPEC+ stepping in, prolonged disruption to Hormuz could keep crude elevated long enough to push inflation readings higher, which is negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Pressure Valve or Risk Asset?

The weekend reinforced Bitcoin’s evolving identity in geopolitical crises. When traditional markets are closed, crypto absorbs selling pressure from equities, bonds, and commodities. Analysts call this the “pressure valve” effect. Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading around the clock. It took the brunt of weekend risk-off flows. The real price discovery is expected on Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.

That ETF dynamic adds a new variable. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $254 million in net inflows over three sessions last week. Monday’s open could test whether institutional holders maintain positions through escalating geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin futures funding rates have turned sharply negative, with the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed index at 15 — deep in “Extreme Fear” territory where it has been stuck for weeks. Some analysts view this as a contrarian signal, arguing that the market is mechanically paying traders to go long.

What Comes Next

Some initial panic has faded after President Trump told the New York Times he was open to dropping sanctions on Iran if its new leadership proves pragmatic. A senior White House official also said to the press that Iran’s new interim leadership had suggested it was open to talks, and Trump said he had agreed to engage.

Some Wall Street strategists warned against buying the dip too quickly. This episode risks lasting longer than the geopolitical flare-ups investors have grown accustomed to.

For Bitcoin, which has already fallen 47% from its October all-time high of $126,000, the $60,000 support level remains the line in the sand. A break below could open the path to the mid-$50,000 range. A sustained move above $70,000, on the other hand, could trigger a short squeeze given the heavy bearish positioning currently built up in derivatives markets.

With CPI data due March 11 and the Fed decision on March 18, the crypto market faces a gauntlet of catalysts that the Iran conflict has made exponentially harder to navigate.

Trump Media & Technology Group said it is considering spinning out its flagship social media platform, Truth Social, into a publicly traded company, a move that could see it prioritize its crypto ambitions.

The Donald Trump-founded company said on Friday that it is discussing the potential deal with energy fusion startup TAE Technologies and Texas Ventures Acquisition III, a blank check company that would take control of the social media platform.

The discussions build on Trump Media’s merger agreement with TAE Technologies in December in a deal worth more than $6 billion.

When that merger is closed, Truth Social could be spun into a new public company called SpinCo,  which would then merge with Texas Ventures III. SpinCo shares would also be distributed to Trump Media shareholders.

Trump Media expanded into crypto in 2025, establishing the fintech brand Truth.Fi to support its crypto products and services while also establishing a Bitcoin treasury with over 11,500 BTC in late September.

The company has also filed for several Truth Social-branded crypto exchange-traded funds in the US, including one for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) and another for Cronos (CRO) with staking, in connection with its partnership with Crypto.com.