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Strategy’s STRC gives hedge funds a new reason to short MSTR

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Strategy’s STRC gives hedge funds a new reason to short MSTR

Every new share of STRC by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) creates a perpetual claim on the company’s cash flow, and this might give institutions a reason to short the company’s MSTR common stock.

Strategy is a bitcoin (BTC) acquisition company that uses most of the proceeds of all types of its share sales to buy BTC.

Although MSTR has no upside limit and has unlimited price appreciation potential to penalize short-sellers, plenty of traders already short MSTR. Specifically, short interest exceeds 35 million shares of MSTR, equivalent to an alarming 11% of the float.

Yet few people understand that a small portion of this MSTR short interest might be the result of its interplay with STRC.

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STRC is Strategy’s quasi-pegged stock that pays a variable, 11.5% annualized dividend and is supposed to trade near $100.

It’s fluctuated within 10% of that band during its lifespan.

The company’s common stock, MSTR, pays no dividends and fluctuates in price with no regard for any peg. Indeed, it’s fluctuated mostly, over the last 18 months, in a very downward direction and has halved over the past year.

There are $5.3 billion worth of STRC outstanding paying an 11.5% annual dividend in cash USD. Unfortunately, the company cannot fund those $609 million in annual payouts from regular business profits, which have been in decline for years.

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Moreover, the company’s management, rather than focusing on fixing their software business, are “laser focused” on selling more STRC, according to founder Michael Saylor.

Indeed, CEO Phong Le has admitted that the company intends to pivot away from at the market (ATM) MSTR issuances in favor of perpetual preferred offerings.

Unfortunately, those preferred shares like STRC create obligations on the assets owned by MSTR.

Read more: STRC could be funding more Strategy bitcoin buys than ever

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How STRC dividends actually work

Again, each new STRC issuance perpetually siphons dollars from Strategy which is collectively owned by MSTR, after STRC’s more senior claims. Yes, STRC is called a perpetual preferred for a reason.

Strategy owes $609 million per year in STRC dividends, and that cash has to come from somewhere. For years, it’s mostly been coming from MSTR ATMs.

In other words, each new STRC share increases Strategy’s annual cash dividend obligations.

Since the company generates negligible to negative earnings, the market expects those obligations to be funded by MSTR share dilution as a last resort, given the preeminence of MSTR as the most popular, liquid, and indexed security of the company.

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Thus, STRC creates an expectation of predictable MSTR dilution that short sellers can front-run.

Moreover, the success of STRC at attracting capital is somewhat at the expense of demand that might otherwise bid for MSTR.

Rather than shareholders bidding for MSTR because they believe in Strategy, if they buy STRC instead, they benefit MSTR only in a one-time purchase of BTC yet then siphon out cash from the company forever.

STRC dividends at the discretion of the board

Even though short-sellers might be correct about their prediction about ongoing MSTR dilution, STRC dividends aren’t a fixed obligation to literally guarantee this dilution.

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Strategy’s board declares dividends at its sole discretion. Moreover, the dividend rate of STRC is variable. Although it has only gone higher since inception, the board of directors can technically reduce it by 25 basis points plus certain declines in the one-month US Treasury secured overnight financing rate (SOFR).

Strategy can also fund dividends from any legally available cash, not just MSTR sales.

For example, the company might fund dividends through further STRC issuances, sales of other preferred shares, traditional debt, or other capital raises.

Read more: Saylor continues to liken STRC to a money market as risks mount

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Buying converts, shorting commons

Before Strategy sold non-convertible preferred shares like STRC, it sold convertible bond notes. 

A less exotic asset type than Strategy’s perpetual preferreds, and therefore with a longer history for academic studies, the short-selling of common stock by companies that have issued convertible notes is a well-documented phenomenon.

Hedge funds frequently buy convertible notes, short the common stock to delta-hedge their position, and profit from volatility. Academic research confirms that convertible bond arbitrageurs drive significant increases in short-selling near issuance dates. 

As of Friday, Strategy held 766,970 BTC at an average cost basis of $75,644 per coin. Over the weekend, BTC was below $71,000, well below Strategy’s cost basis.

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Strategy still has more than $22 billion in remaining STRC ATM capacity. Each $1 billion more of STRC means another $115 million in annual obligations in perpetuity.

Protos has previously documented how Strategy has hiked STRC’s dividend seven times since launch, from 9% to 11.5%, to encourage optimism after STRC traded as low as $90.52 in November and $93.10 in February.

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Broadcom (AVGO) Stock Surges on Extended Google Partnership and Raised AI Revenue Projections

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Key Takeaways

  • UBS maintained its Buy recommendation with a $475 price objective for Broadcom (AVGO) following an extended Google collaboration lasting until 2031
  • The expanded agreement includes next-generation TPU systems and networking infrastructure, granting Anthropic access to approximately 3.5GW of TPU compute capacity starting 2027
  • TPU order projections tied to Anthropic have climbed to roughly $50 billion from approximately $40 billion spanning 2026–2027
  • UBS increased Broadcom’s fiscal 2027 AI revenue projection to $145 billion from a previous $133 billion estimate
  • Wall Street responses varied — Seaport Global shifted AVGO to Neutral while Mizuho and BofA Securities retained bullish stances

Broadcom (AVGO) has secured a comprehensive multi-year arrangement with Google extending into 2031, capturing significant attention from financial analysts. This expanded partnership encompasses upcoming TPU technology iterations alongside networking infrastructure and rack-level systems — representing a substantial deepening of an already critical client relationship.


AVGO Stock Card
Broadcom Inc., AVGO

The arrangement also integrates Anthropic into the equation. Beginning in 2027, the artificial intelligence firm is positioned to receive approximately 3.5GW worth of TPU-powered computational resources, contingent upon sustained commercial expansion. This substantial commitment rapidly influenced analyst financial modeling.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained his Buy position with a $475 price objective following the announcement. He characterized the developments as “incremental to the near-term TPU risk debate,” while anticipating investor attention will pivot toward ASIC diversification beyond TPU technology as MediaTek accelerates manufacturing.

The updated UBS projections carry significant weight. Anthropic-connected TPU orders for Broadcom now approach $50 billion, representing an increase from the approximately $40 billion estimated across calendar years 2026 and 2027 under previous assumptions.

UBS currently projects Broadcom will deliver approximately 7 million TPU units during calendar year 2027, elevated from an earlier 6 million unit forecast. This single adjustment underscores the magnitude of the partnership.

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Top-Line Projections Move Higher

Regarding overall revenue expectations, UBS elevated its FY2027 projection to $195 billion from $182 billion. Its calendar 2027 estimate advanced to $212 billion from $195 billion.

AI-specific revenue for fiscal 2027 now stands at $145 billion compared with the prior $133 billion estimate. This projection already exceeds Broadcom’s internal guidance considerably.

Broadcom has achieved a 77% gross profit margin alongside 25% revenue expansion over the trailing twelve months, per InvestingPro analytics. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at $1.76 trillion.

Billionaire investor Ken Fisher maintains a $4.79 billion position in AVGO, positioning it as his eighth-largest AI equity holding. Fisher’s investment rationale emphasizes Broadcom’s capability to develop customized, application-specific chips that general-purpose GPUs cannot effectively duplicate.

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Wall Street Opinion Diverges

Not all analysts share the optimistic view. Seaport Global Securities lowered AVGO from Buy to Neutral, citing broader AI sector limitations despite Broadcom’s strong competitive positioning.

Mizuho maintained its Outperform designation with a $480 price objective. BofA Securities similarly preserved its Buy rating, establishing a $450 target. Both institutions cited the Google and Anthropic arrangements as primary drivers supporting their constructive outlooks.

D.A. Davidson retained a Neutral stance with a $375 price target, while emphasizing the strategic importance of Broadcom’s extended Google partnership for customized AI silicon.

On the product development front, Broadcom recently introduced Arcot Smart Ruleset this month — a machine learning-powered fraud prevention platform designed to enhance 3-D Secure payment verification by automating fraud detection logic that historically required manual configuration.

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The TPU partnership with Google, guaranteeing supply continuity for networking and rack-level infrastructure through 2031, remains the primary catalyst behind revised analyst financial models.

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ECB Sets Cautious Path for Tokenized Capital Markets in New Bulletin

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Legislation, ECB, European Union, Stablecoin, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization

The European Central Bank (ECB) set out a cautious path toward tokenizing Europe’s capital markets, saying the technology can deliver efficiency gains only if it remains anchored to central bank money, infrastructures remain interoperable, and regulation is “robust and supportive.” 

In its latest Macroprudential Bulletin published on Monday, the ECB said distributed ledger technology (DLT) could help deepen the European Union’s savings and investments union, but warned that benefits will depend on interoperable infrastructure and policymakers keeping pace with new risks. 

The central bank’s stance highlights a push to modernize market plumbing in the bloc without loosening control over settlement or financial stability.

The ECB said that tokenization and DLT are “moving from concept to early-scale deployment,” but the benefits will “only be realised safely if European policy action keeps pace.”

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ECB maps conditions for tokenized capital markets

One article in the Bulletin lays out how tokenized assets could rewire the issuance-to-settlement chain, cutting operational frictions and potentially improving secondary market liquidity. By moving securities and cash onto compatible ledgers and automating corporate actions, the authors argue, tokenization could streamline processes that today rely on multiple intermediaries and legacy systems. 

Legislation, ECB, European Union, Stablecoin, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization
Digital assets landscape. Source: ECB

The analysis underlines, however, that efficiency gains hinge on avoiding a patchwork of incompatible platforms and ensuring that central bank money, not just commercial bank money or privately issued tokens, can be used for settlement in tokenized markets.

Related: EU central bank backs plan for crypto supervision under EU markets watchdog

A further piece drills into the nascent market for tokenized bonds, finding early evidence that they can already lower borrowing costs and tighten bid-ask spreads compared with traditional formats. 

The authors attribute this partly to operational efficiencies and partly to improved transparency and programmability around settlement and collateral management. Still, they frame these benefits as tentative and conditional, cautioning that technology, legal and liquidity risks remain and that policymakers will need to monitor whether advantages persist once tokenization scales beyond flagship deals and highly selected issuers.

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Tokenized MMFs and euro stablecoins under the microscope

The Bulletin also takes a hard look at tokenized money market funds and euro-denominated stablecoins, treating them as parallel experiments in onchain cash-like instruments.

One article stresses that tokenized money market funds (MMFs) largely replicate familiar liquidity and run risks but layer on new operational vulnerabilities, raising questions about how they would behave under stress alongside stablecoins.

Legislation, ECB, European Union, Stablecoin, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization
Comparison between balance sheet and asset-backed model. Source: ECB

Another argues that Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) compliant euro stablecoins could reshape demand for sovereign bonds and act either as a liquidity buffer in turbulent markets or a new channel of bank contagion, depending on how issuers meet deposit and reserve requirements. 

Across the five pieces in the Bulletin, the ECB’s stance is clear: Tokenization can support its vision of an integrated capital market, but only if policy, prudential rules and central bank infrastructure evolve in lockstep.

Cointelegraph reached out to the ECB for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

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