Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, $150B Refund Now on the Table

TLDR:

• The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, putting $150B+ in potential refunds on the table for U.S. firms.
• Refunds won’t be automatic; companies must file claims or lawsuits to recover payments made under the tariffs.
• If tariffs ease, import costs may fall, inflation could cool, and the Fed may have room to cut rates sooner.
• Trump retains tariff authority under Sections 232, 301, and 122, though broader tariffs now require stronger legal grounds.

The Supreme Court has ruled Trump’s sweeping tariffs unconstitutional, upending a cornerstone of his trade policy. 

Importers across the U.S. paid over $150 billion under these tariffs. The government now faces pressure to return that money. The ruling reshapes the trade landscape and carries wide economic consequences.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Opens Door to $150 Billion in Refunds

The tariffs in question relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA. The court’s decision strips that tool from the administration’s trade arsenal. It does not, however, eliminate the president’s authority to levy tariffs altogether.

Refunds will not flow automatically to affected companies. According to Bull Theory, businesses will likely need to file formal claims or pursue litigation. That process could take months or years to resolve.

If the government approves large-scale refunds, federal revenue takes a serious hit. The fiscal gap could force higher borrowing, which tends to push Treasury yields upward. That creates a new pressure point for bond markets.

At the same time, removing these tariffs could ease cost burdens on importers. Lower import costs typically reduce what businesses charge consumers. That could translate into softer inflation readings over time.

Crypto and Financial Markets Watch Fed’s Next Move Amid Tariff Fallout

The Federal Reserve currently faces a difficult position. Growth signals are soft. Inflation remains sticky. The tariff ruling adds a new variable to that calculation.

If import costs fall and inflation cools, the Fed gains more room to cut interest rates. Bull Theory notes that reduced tariff pressure and easing prices could support more aggressive rate cuts. Lower rates historically benefit risk assets, including crypto markets.

Rate cuts tend to lift consumer spending and business investment. Housing markets also respond quickly to cheaper borrowing. Crypto traders watch these macro signals closely.

Trump still holds several legal tools for imposing tariffs. Section 232 covers national security-based tariffs and applies to specific industries. Section 301 targets countries engaged in unfair trade practices, and it already underpins most China-related tariffs.

Section 122 offers a faster but narrower option, limited in size and duration. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties remain available too, though they require formal legal proceedings. 

Bull Theory points out that what changes most is speed. IEEPA allowed near-instant, broad tariffs. Future tariffs will require investigations and stronger legal grounds.