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Surging Oil Prices and Inflation Data Will Rattle Crypto Markets This Week

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Surging Oil Prices and Inflation Data Will Rattle Crypto Markets This Week


A busy week lies ahead with all eyes on oil prices and key inflation reports due on the United States economic calendar. 

Crypto markets saw another red Monday morning as digital assets erased last week’s gains and returned to their sideways channel.

The only thing going up at the moment is oil prices, with crypto, commodities, and US stock futures all falling on Monday morning.

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President Donald Trump said oil prices “will drop rapidly” when the “Iran nuclear threat is over,” adding that it is a “very small price to pay.”

Economic Events March 9 to 13

Crude oil prices have skyrocketed to $116 per barrel as oil futures opened higher on Sunday evening. This has resulted in major volatility in stock futures and crypto markets, which are falling.

The Kobeissi Letter described it as “one of those days that will be referenced for decades to come,” with oil prices surging 25% on a Sunday, US stock market futures erasing over $2 trillion, and “20 million barrels per day of oil supply offline with no signs of deescalation,” it added.

The week ahead will add to that volatility, starting on Wednesday with February’s CPI (consumer price index) inflation data. There is only one way inflation can go with fuel prices skyrocketing.

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The delayed January reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is due on Friday, adding fuel to the fire.

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The timing is significant ahead of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting on March 18, which has a 95.5% probability of no rate changes, according to CME Group futures markets.

The PCE print is expected to show that prices increased 0.4% month-on-month in January, matching December’s pace, and would be the second consecutive “hot” reading.

Surging gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict could influence inflation expectations and consumer spending behavior, as broader markets go into selloff mode.

Crypto Market Outlook

High-risk crypto assets are particularly sensitive to geopolitical conflict, and markets have retreated $40 billion over the weekend to $2.36 trillion.

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Bitcoin saw resistance at $68,000 on Sunday and tanked below $66,000 before a marginal recovery during Asian trading on Monday morning. The asset remains in the middle of its range-bound channel but is heading for the lower bands.

Ether prices saw similar declines, failing to reclaim $2,000 over the weekend and falling back to $1,960 at the time of writing. The altcoins were mostly flat over the past 24 hours.

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Fed Balance Sheet Expands as Treasury Buyback Adds Liquidity but Bull Run Lags

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • The Fed balance sheet grew by $18 billion in one week, reaching $6.675 trillion and rising again
  • Treasury executed a $15 billion buyback, injecting liquidity into bond markets to maintain stability
  • T-Bill purchases hit $381 billion, exceeding levels seen during the 2020 financial crisis period
  • Lack of long-term bond buying and high uncertainty continue to limit chances of a strong bull run

The U.S. financial system is seeing fresh liquidity flows as central bank and Treasury actions expand balance sheets.

Recent data shows rising monetary support, although current conditions do not yet point to a clear market reversal or sustained bullish momentum.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Expands Again

A recent update shared by CryptoGoos noted that the Federal Reserve balance sheet increased by $18 billion in one week.

The total now stands at $6.675 trillion and continues to expand steadily. This shift follows the end of quantitative tightening in 2025, marking a return to balance sheet growth.

The data shows that the Fed never fully reversed its pandemic-era expansion. Instead, it stabilized at a higher baseline level.

That baseline is now rising again, reflecting renewed liquidity entering the system. While this growth signals easing financial conditions, it remains controlled rather than aggressive.

At the same time, short-term Treasury bill purchases are running at $381 billion. This level exceeds activity seen during the 2020 crisis period.

Such elevated buying suggests continued demand for short-term liquidity tools. It also shows that policymakers are maintaining support for market stability.

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However, the nature of these actions matters. The current expansion does not involve large-scale purchases of long-term bonds.

Without that, the effect on broader financial markets may remain limited. Liquidity is present, yet it is not being deployed in a way that drives strong upward momentum.

Treasury Buyback Adds Support to Bond Markets

Alongside Federal Reserve activity, the U.S. Treasury recently completed a $15 billion debt buyback. This operation, finalized on April 2, 2026, marks the largest single buyback ever recorded. The move aimed to improve liquidity in the bond market and support smoother functioning.

According to the tweet, the buyback injected funds directly into the system. This helped stabilize conditions in the Treasury market, where liquidity can tighten during periods of uncertainty. By purchasing existing debt, the Treasury effectively increased cash flow within financial markets.

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Even so, broader conditions remain mixed. The tweet notes that uncertainty across markets is still elevated. This limits the ability of liquidity injections to translate into sustained upward price action. Stability may improve, but confidence remains uneven.

Two key factors are still missing for a stronger market shift. There is no clear reduction in macro uncertainty at present.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is not actively buying long-term bonds. These elements often play a central role in driving major market cycles.

As a result, current measures may help hold markets in place rather than push them higher. Liquidity is returning, yet it is not at levels or forms that typically trigger a full bull run. For now, the system appears supported, though not positioned for a rapid reversal.

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Algorand Breakout Gains Attention as Swiss Bank Post Finance Enables Direct ALGO Trading

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • ALGO breaks key resistance near $0.12, signaling a shift from a prolonged bearish trend toward recovery
  • Falling wedge breakout and MACD crossover indicate strengthening bullish momentum in the short term
  • PostFinance enables direct ALGO trading, expanding access through regulated banking infrastructure
  • Price stability above $0.12 remains crucial to sustain momentum and avoid a return to prior demand zones

Algorand’s native token ALGO is gaining renewed attention after a technical breakout coincided with increased institutional access.

Recent market structure shifts and banking integration have drawn focus to its evolving position within the broader crypto landscape.

Technical Structure Signals Momentum Shift

A recent tweet from market analyst Lucky @LLuciano_BTC outlined a notable shift in ALGO/USDT price action. The chart shows a move from a prolonged downtrend into a potential bullish phase. Over several months, price action followed a descending channel, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows.

However, the structure began tightening into a falling wedge formation. This pattern often signals reduced selling pressure and possible reversal conditions.

As the wedge approached its apex, volatility declined, suggesting seller exhaustion. Price then broke above both the descending resistance trendline and the horizontal level near 0.12 $.

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The breakout placed ALGO around 0.1213 $, marking a structural shift. The analysis also identified a demand zone between 0.0794 and 0.10$.

This zone held firmly during repeated tests, pointing to accumulation behavior. As a result, the breakout gained further technical backing.

Additional indicators support this shift. Bollinger Bands showed prior compression followed by expansion, often linked with trend transitions.

At the same time, the MACD indicator confirmed a bullish crossover, with momentum turning positive. These signals align with the observed breakout and suggest continued upward attempts if support levels hold.

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Short-term resistance levels remain between 0.14$ and 0.16 $, while broader targets extend toward 0.20 and higher.

A projected move based on the wedge pattern places a potential upper range near 0.3360$. Still, price stability above the 0.12 level remains critical for continuation.

Banking Integration Expands Market Access

Alongside technical developments, adoption news has also emerged. A tweet from Collide @We_R_Crypto reported that Algorand is now available for direct trading through PostFinance.

This marks the first time a systemically important Swiss bank has enabled direct ALGO access from customer accounts.

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This development reflects ongoing efforts to integrate digital assets into traditional financial systems. Customers of PostFinance can now buy and sell ALGO without relying on external crypto exchanges. As a result, access becomes more streamlined for users already within the banking network.

Moreover, regulatory clarity in Switzerland continues to support such integrations. The country has maintained a structured approach toward digital assets, allowing banks to expand crypto offerings within defined frameworks. This environment has encouraged institutions to explore additional blockchain-based services.

The integration also aligns with broader trends in real-world asset adoption and blockchain utility. While market participants continue to assess long-term outcomes, increased accessibility through established financial institutions remains a notable step.

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At the same time, market conditions still require caution. Price action near upper Bollinger levels suggests possible short-term cooling.

A pullback toward the 0.115$–0.11$ range could occur before further movement. Maintaining higher lows will be important for sustaining upward structure.

Overall, ALGO’s recent price movement and institutional access update present two parallel developments. One reflects shifting market sentiment through technical patterns, while the other shows expanding availability through regulated channels.

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Gold Price Crash Debate Grows as Viral 2011 Comparison Sparks Market Concerns

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Viral post claims a gold price crash by comparing current charts with the 2011 market cycle
  • Historical data shows gold’s 2011 decline unfolded over years, not within a few days
  • Current gold trend still shows higher highs and higher lows, keeping bullish structure intact
  • Traders focus on macro factors like central bank demand and global uncertainty for direction

The gold price crash narrative gained traction after a viral post claimed history is repeating from 2011. The post triggered debate across markets, as traders assessed whether current price action signals a major reversal or continued strength.

Viral Chart Comparison Raises Questions

A widely shared tweet by a Tracer claimed that gold is repeating its 2011 cycle. The post warned of a sharp drop and referenced a past rally followed by a prolonged decline. It used strong wording to suggest that current price action mirrors a previous market top.

The tweet compared two charts labeled “Gold 2011” and “Gold 2026.” The 2011 chart showed a strong rally into a peak near $1,900 per ounce.

After that, gold entered a correction phase that lasted several years. Historical data shows the decline unfolded gradually between 2011 and 2015, not within days.

The 2026 chart shows a strong uptrend with large bullish candles. A recent pullback appears, yet the overall trend structure remains intact. The post suggested both charts show the same pattern, but the structures differ on closer inspection.

Market participants continue to watch for confirmation signals. A lower high after a peak and a breakdown in trend structure would support a bearish setup. These elements have not fully appeared in the current market.

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Market Structure and Macro Factors Remain Key

Traders continue to track price structure to determine direction. A sustained uptrend forms through higher highs and higher lows. Gold still follows that structure, which keeps the broader trend intact for now.

At the same time, macro conditions differ from those seen in 2011. During that period, the global economy showed signs of recovery after the financial crisis. Monetary policy also shifted, which reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

In contrast, current conditions show elevated global debt and continued central bank gold purchases. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also support demand for gold. These factors shape a different environment compared to the earlier cycle.

Traders also monitor indicators such as support levels, trading volume, and momentum signals like RSI divergence. These tools provide clearer direction based on market behavior rather than comparisons alone.

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The viral post used phrases designed to attract attention, including claims of limited awareness and urgent warnings. Such messaging often appears in market discussions but does not replace data-driven analysis.

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Anthropic Enters Political Arena with PAC as AI Policy Tensions Mount

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Anthropic Enters Political Arena with PAC as AI Policy Tensions Mount

AI firm Anthropic forms an employee-funded PAC while facing questions over political balance and a growing dispute with the Pentagon over AI use.

Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic has launched a corporate political action committee (PAC), entering election financing as debates over AI policy intensify in Washington.

The company filed a statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission on Friday to establish “AnthroPAC,” an employee-funded PAC that will collect voluntary contributions from staff. The filing lists Anthropic as the “connected organization,” with the committee structured as a “separate segregated fund” and registered as a lobbyist-affiliated PAC.

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Under US law, individual contributions are capped at $5,000 per election cycle per candidate and must be disclosed through public filings.

Anthropic launches PAC. Source: FEC

Anthropic said the PAC is expected to support candidates from both major parties. However, some figures have questioned whether the effort will remain politically balanced.

Related: CFTC Chair Selig says blockchain could help verify AI-generated content

Anthropic clashes with Pentagon over AI use in weapons

The move comes as Anthropic faces mounting friction with the Pentagon over the use of its AI systems. In February, the Defense Department designated the firm a supply chain risk after it opposed the use of its technology in fully autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.

Anthropic has challenged that designation in court, arguing it reflects retaliation against what it described as a protected viewpoint. A federal judge in California has temporarily blocked the measure and paused broader restrictions tied to the dispute.

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The company has already been active in political funding this cycle, including a $20 million contribution to Public First Action, a group focused on advancing AI safety efforts.

Related: David Sacks’ 130-day term as Trump’s crypto and AI czar has ended

Google backs $5B Texas data center for Anthropic

As Cointelegraph reported, Google is preparing to support a multibillion-dollar data center project in Texas leased to Anthropic, as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates.

The project, operated by Nexus Data Centers, could exceed $5 billion in its initial phase, with Google expected to provide construction loans while banks compete to arrange additional financing.

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