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Tesla (TSLA) Stock Down 16% From All-Time Highs – Should Investors Buy the Dip?
TLDR
- Tesla stock dropped 2.7% Thursday, ending a four-day winning streak, and fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07
- Historical data shows Tesla stock rises 56% of the time on Friday the 13th versus 52% on regular days, with slightly lower volatility
- Shares remain down 3.3% since reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings on January 20, despite beating analyst estimates
- Tesla plans to expand its AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities in the first half of 2026, currently operating in Austin and testing in San Francisco
- The company expects capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion in 2026, more than double 2025 levels, as it pivots toward AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles
Tesla stock closed down 2.7% Thursday at $417.50, breaking a four-day winning streak. The EV maker’s shares fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07.
The decline came without Tesla-specific news. Market-wide weakness hit tech stocks particularly hard. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% Thursday as AI disruption fears spread across sectors.
Tesla shares have now fallen 3.3% since the company reported fourth-quarter earnings on January 20. The results beat analyst expectations for both revenue and profitability. Yet investors haven’t rewarded the stock with sustained gains.
The muted reaction suggests shareholders want more than good quarterly numbers. They’re waiting for concrete progress on Tesla’s AI initiatives before pushing the stock higher.
Robo-Taxi Expansion Plans
CEO Elon Musk outlined plans to expand Tesla’s AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities during the first half of 2026. The service currently operates in Austin, Texas, with testing underway in San Francisco.
The company aims to begin CyberCab production in April. Musk stated he expects Tesla to eventually produce more CyberCabs than all other vehicles combined.
Tesla is also winding down production of the Model S sedan and Model X SUV in coming months. That production space will shift to manufacturing Optimus, the company’s autonomous robot. Musk’s goal is to produce 1 million Optimus units annually.
Fourth-quarter deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 495,570 vehicles. The drop raised concerns since Tesla remains primarily an automobile company.
Capital Spending Surge
Capital expenditures are expected to top $20 billion in 2026. That’s more than double the 2025 level. The funds will support battery technology development, CyberCab production, the Robotaxi system, and AI projects.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Supervised platform will shift to a fully subscription-based model this quarter. The move could generate recurring revenue streams if adoption proves strong.
Despite recent weakness, Tesla stock is up 24% over the past 12 months. Shares gained 1.4% for the week heading into Friday trading.
Friday the 13th has historically been kind to Tesla stock. The company has experienced 27 Friday the 13ths since going public in 2010. Shares rose on 15 of those days, a 56% win rate. Average price movement on Friday the 13th is 2.3%, slightly below the typical 2.5% daily movement.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio near 205. Critics argue valuations remain stretched given unproven products like Optimus and CyberCab face uncertain demand. Competition in the EV space continues to intensify as traditional automakers expand electric offerings.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving subscriptions face a crowded market where consumers already juggle multiple subscription services. Success depends on whether the technology delivers enough value to justify another monthly payment.
