Crypto World
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Down 16% From All-Time Highs – Should Investors Buy the Dip?
TLDR
- Tesla stock dropped 2.7% Thursday, ending a four-day winning streak, and fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07
- Historical data shows Tesla stock rises 56% of the time on Friday the 13th versus 52% on regular days, with slightly lower volatility
- Shares remain down 3.3% since reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings on January 20, despite beating analyst estimates
- Tesla plans to expand its AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities in the first half of 2026, currently operating in Austin and testing in San Francisco
- The company expects capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion in 2026, more than double 2025 levels, as it pivots toward AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles
Tesla stock closed down 2.7% Thursday at $417.50, breaking a four-day winning streak. The EV maker’s shares fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07.
The decline came without Tesla-specific news. Market-wide weakness hit tech stocks particularly hard. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% Thursday as AI disruption fears spread across sectors.
Tesla shares have now fallen 3.3% since the company reported fourth-quarter earnings on January 20. The results beat analyst expectations for both revenue and profitability. Yet investors haven’t rewarded the stock with sustained gains.
The muted reaction suggests shareholders want more than good quarterly numbers. They’re waiting for concrete progress on Tesla’s AI initiatives before pushing the stock higher.
Robo-Taxi Expansion Plans
CEO Elon Musk outlined plans to expand Tesla’s AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities during the first half of 2026. The service currently operates in Austin, Texas, with testing underway in San Francisco.
The company aims to begin CyberCab production in April. Musk stated he expects Tesla to eventually produce more CyberCabs than all other vehicles combined.
Tesla is also winding down production of the Model S sedan and Model X SUV in coming months. That production space will shift to manufacturing Optimus, the company’s autonomous robot. Musk’s goal is to produce 1 million Optimus units annually.
Fourth-quarter deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 495,570 vehicles. The drop raised concerns since Tesla remains primarily an automobile company.
Capital Spending Surge
Capital expenditures are expected to top $20 billion in 2026. That’s more than double the 2025 level. The funds will support battery technology development, CyberCab production, the Robotaxi system, and AI projects.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Supervised platform will shift to a fully subscription-based model this quarter. The move could generate recurring revenue streams if adoption proves strong.
Despite recent weakness, Tesla stock is up 24% over the past 12 months. Shares gained 1.4% for the week heading into Friday trading.
Friday the 13th has historically been kind to Tesla stock. The company has experienced 27 Friday the 13ths since going public in 2010. Shares rose on 15 of those days, a 56% win rate. Average price movement on Friday the 13th is 2.3%, slightly below the typical 2.5% daily movement.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio near 205. Critics argue valuations remain stretched given unproven products like Optimus and CyberCab face uncertain demand. Competition in the EV space continues to intensify as traditional automakers expand electric offerings.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving subscriptions face a crowded market where consumers already juggle multiple subscription services. Success depends on whether the technology delivers enough value to justify another monthly payment.
Bitcoin (BTC) was once pitched as digital gold — a hedge against monetary instability and market turmoil. But recent price action tells a different story.
As institutional participation has grown, particularly through exchange-traded funds and other traditional vehicles, Bitcoin has increasingly traded in lockstep with risk assets. The latest downturn in software stocks, fueled by renewed uncertainty around AI’s impact on the sector, has been mirrored in crypto markets, raising fresh questions about Bitcoin’s evolving identity.
That changing dynamic sets the tone for this week’s Crypto Biz. New research from Grayscale examines Bitcoin’s growing correlation with growth equities, while one Ether (ETH) treasury company is doubling down despite multibillion-dollar paper losses. Elsewhere, BlackRock is expanding its tokenization push through a Uniswap integration, and Polymarket is taking its fight over state regulation to federal court.
Grayscale: Bitcoin is trading like a growth asset, not digital gold
New research from Grayscale suggests that Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative has recently taken a back seat, with the digital asset behaving more like a growth stock.
In the report, author Zach Pandl said that while Grayscale continues to view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value due to its fixed supply and independence from central banks, its short-term trading patterns resemble those of high-growth equities.
The analysis found a strong correlation between Bitcoin and software stocks over the past two years. That relationship has become more apparent as software companies face renewed selling pressure amid concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt parts of the industry.
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s recent pullback appears less surprising, as its price has closely tracked the software sector’s movements.
BitMine adds 40,613 ETH during market sell-off
Ether treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies added 40,613 ETH to its holdings during the recent market sell-off, reinforcing its long-term bet on Ether even as prices plunge and paper losses reach billions of dollars.
The purchase raised BitMine’s total Ether stash to more than 4.326 million ETH, worth about $8.8 billion at current levels. According to DropsTab data, the company is now sitting on around $8.1 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH position, reflecting a significant gap between its cost basis and today’s market price.
Despite investor criticism and pressure on its stock price, which has fallen sharply over recent months, BitMine chairman Tom Lee said the company’s strategy is designed to track Ether’s long-term trajectory and benefit from future recoveries. The company’s broader crypto and cash portfolio is valued at roughly $10 billion.
BlackRock buys UNI, brings BUIDL to Uniswap
BlackRock is deepening its push into decentralized finance by listing its tokenized money market fund on Uniswap, a significant step for institutional DeFi adoption.
The asset manager’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is now available on the decentralized exchange, giving whitelisted institutional investors the ability to trade the tokenized Treasury product onchain. As part of the move, BlackRock is also purchasing Uniswap’s governance token, UNI.
BUIDL is the largest tokenized money market fund, with more than $2.1 billion in assets. The fund is issued across multiple blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche. In December, it surpassed $100 million in cumulative distributions generated from its US Treasury holdings.
Polymarket sues Massachusetts over state regulation of prediction markets
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts, challenging state authorities’ efforts to restrict or shut down its event-based trading products.
Polymarket’s chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, confirmed the filing on Monday, saying unresolved legal questions around jurisdiction should be settled at the federal level rather than through state enforcement. The lawsuit is preemptive, aimed at blocking any action by Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell that Polymarket contends would unlawfully interfere with federally regulated markets.
The company argues that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not individual states, has exclusive authority over event contracts like those offered on its platform, and that state actions risk fragmenting national markets.
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The Netherlands’ lower chamber moved a sweeping capital-gains plan forward on Thursday, proposing a 36% tax on savings and most liquid assets, including cryptocurrencies. The bill cleared the House of Representatives with 93 lawmakers voting in favor, meeting and surpassing the threshold of 75 required to advance the measure. It would apply regardless of whether the assets are sold, extending to savings accounts, crypto holdings, most equity investments and gains from interest-bearing instruments. If the Senate signs off, the policy would take effect in the 2028 tax year. Critics argue the plan risks driving capital out of the Netherlands as investors seek jurisdictions with more favorable tax conditions. The discussion comes amid a broader global conversation about crypto taxation and how unrealized gains should be treated for high-net-worth and retail investors alike. The Dutch tally, published by the House, confirms the legislative momentum behind the proposal.
Key takeaways
- The bill would impose a 36% capital-gains tax on savings and most liquid investments, explicitly including cryptocurrencies, with the tax levied even if assets are not disposed of.
- The measure advanced after a 93-to-what-it-took vote in the Dutch House, surpassing the 75-vote threshold to proceed, signaling strong political alignment in favor of the reform.
- Enactment hinges on Senate approval; if passed, the policy would apply beginning with the 2028 tax year, giving policymakers and investors time to prepare for the transition and for further details to emerge on implementation.
- Critics warn the proposal could trigger capital flight from the Netherlands to jurisdictions with lower tax burdens, drawing on historical examples where similar levies spurred relocation of entrepreneurship and investment activity.
- Analysts and industry figures have offered stark projections about the long-term impact on wealth accumulation, including widely cited calculations showing substantial reductions in compound growth under an unrealized-gains tax regime; comparisons to other tax debates in major markets underscore the broader risk environment for crypto and tech capital.
Tickers mentioned:
Sentiment: Bearish
Market context: The Netherlands’ proposal sits within a wider European and global dialogue on crypto taxation, where authorities weigh revenue needs against innovation incentives. As tax authorities assess how unrealized gains should be treated, the Dutch plan adds to considerations around how digital-asset holdings are accounted for in personal and investment taxation, echoing debates across the EU about consistency, enforcement, and the boundaries of capital taxation in a digital era.
Why it matters
The central premise — taxing unrealized gains on a broad swath of assets, including cryptocurrencies — marks a notable shift in how governments might approach wealth and investment in an era of rapid digital-asset adoption. Proponents argue that a real-time tax on gains helps address perceived inequities in how passive wealth is taxed versus earned income, potentially increasing public revenue to fund social and infrastructure initiatives. Yet, the immediate reaction from market participants and crypto executives has been skeptical, raising concerns about distortions to investment decisions and the long-run competitiveness of the Netherlands as a home for startups and asset management.
Analysts highlighted the unintended consequences of such a policy. Denis Payre, co-founder of logistics firm Kiala, invoked a historical parallel, noting that France’s experience with an earlier capital-sweep proposal led to a pronounced exodus of entrepreneurs. The sentiment among several industry observers echoed this caution, with crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe describing the proposal as counterproductive and predicting a material shift of capital to more favorable environments. The underlying critique is that high tax rates on unrealized gains could dampen risk appetite and deter early-stage capital formation, especially for innovative sectors where growth often hinges on reinvested profits rather than realized gains.
Beyond the Netherlands, the broader economic calculus is clear: tax policy can have a measurable impact on how wealth compounds over decades. For instance, a widely cited hypothetical scenario contrasts outcomes with and without unrealized-gains taxation. Starting with 10,000 euros and contributing 1,000 euros monthly for 40 years, one study suggested the pre-tax outcome might reach around 3.32 million euros, whereas applying a 36% unrealized gains tax would reduce the final tally to roughly 1.89 million euros, a gap of about 1.435 million euros. While such projections depend on many assumptions, they illustrate how timing and recognition of gains influence long-term wealth accumulation, particularly for asset classes that can experience both rapid appreciation and volatility.
The policy also lands in the context of a U.S. debate around wealth taxes and crypto regulation. California, for example, has faced controversy over proposals to impose wealth taxes on billionaires, sparking a broader discourse about the balance between tax fairness and the incentives for innovation. While the Dutch measure focuses on unrealized gains across a wide array of assets, the parallel debates illustrate a growing global sensitivity to how digital assets are taxed and how such tax rules interact with entrepreneurship and capital formation.
As investors digest these signals, the crypto community has echoed concerns about the practicalities of enforcing a 36% rate on assets that can be volatile and illiquid, and about how such taxation affects portfolio strategies, cross-border activity, and the flow of capital to jurisdictions deemed more crypto-friendly. The discussion points to a broader trend where policymakers are still navigating the line between revenue-generation aims and the need to sustain a supportive environment for innovation and decentralized finance.
What to watch next
- Whether the Dutch Senate approves the bill and whether amendments alter the scope or rate of the proposed tax.
- How the government and tax authorities define and enforce unrealized gains on a diverse set of assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- Potential investor behavior in response to the policy, including any observed shifts to foreign domiciliation or cross-border holdings.
- Any forthcoming data or studies assessing the macroeconomic impact of the reform on investment, entrepreneurship, and innovation in the Netherlands.
- Broader EU considerations on crypto taxation and cross-border consistency as other member states weigh similar approaches.
Sources & verification
- Tweep: Dutch House tally page showing the vote threshold and tally details for the bill (dossier 36748; id 2025Z09723). Verify the official tally and the threshold requirement here: https://www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken/wetsvoorstellen/detail?dossier=36748&id=2025Z09723#wetgevingsproces
- Investing Visuals projection comparing compound growth with and without unrealized gains tax over 40 years. See the analysis referenced in coverage of the proposal’s long-term effects: https://x.com/InvestingVisual/status/2022221938840441335
- Statements from Denis Payre on the potential capital flight risk associated with such a tax proposal: https://x.com/DenisPayre/status/2022… (X post linked in coverage)
- Commentary from Michaël van de Poppe critiquing the plan: https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2022209120322121928
- California’s wealth-tax discussion as a comparative reference in crypto regulation debates: https://cointelegraph.com/news/california-billionaire-tax-crypto-executives-slam
Netherlands advances 36% capital gains tax on savings and crypto
The House of Representatives’ decision to push the 36% capital gains tax proposal forward marks a pivotal moment in how the Netherlands could tax a broad spectrum of wealth. The measure targets not only traditional savings but also a wide range of liquid assets, explicitly including crypto assets, and would tax gains even when assets remain unrealized. The bill’s fate now rests with the Senate, and the clock is set for a 2028 effective date should the upper chamber approve the legislation in its final form. The political calculus surrounding this proposal underscores a broader concern among investors and industry observers: will such a tax regime dampen the country’s appeal as a hub for crypto and tech entrepreneurship, or can it be calibrated in a way that sustains public revenue without stifling innovation?
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The Netherlands’ House of Representatives advanced a legislative proposal on Thursday to introduce a 36% capital gains tax on savings and most liquid investments, including cryptocurrencies.
The legislation reached the 75-vote threshold required to advance, with 93 lawmakers voting in favor of it, according to the House tally.
Under the proposal, savings accounts, cryptocurrencies, most equity investments and gains made from interest-bearing financial instruments are subject to the tax, whether or not the assets are sold.
Critics say the bill will drive capital out of the Netherlands and into jurisdictions with more favorable tax laws, as investors seek a flight to safety from confiscatory taxation.
The Dutch Senate must also pass the bill before it is signed into law, which will take effect in the 2028 tax year, if it is passed, but many investors in the crypto community are already sounding the alarm and predicting capital flight from the country.
Related: European Commission calls on 12 countries to implement crypto tax rules
Investors say the tax is out of touch and will backfire
“France did this in 1997 and saw a massive exodus of entrepreneurs leaving the country,” Denis Payre, co-founder of logistics company Kiala said.
Crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the proposal is “the dumbest thing I’ve seen in a long time.”
“The number of people willing to flee the country is going to be bananas,” he added, echoing the calls of other industry analysts and executives.
An investor starting with 10,000 euros ($11,871) who contributes 1,000 euros per month over 40 years would end up with about 3,320,000 euros by the end of the 40 years, according to Investing Visuals.
However, the new 36% tax reduces the total amount after 40 years to about 1,885,000 euros, a difference of 1,435,000 euros, Investing Visuals said.
Crypto industry and tech executives in the United States voiced similar concerns about California’s proposed wealth tax on billionaires.
The proposal outlined a 5% tax on an individual’s net worth above the $1 billion threshold, igniting a torrent of backlash and tech entrepreneurs announcing that they were leaving the state of California.
Magazine: Best and worst countries for crypto taxes — plus crypto tax tips
CFTC forms 35-member advisory panel stacked with crypto leaders as regulator signals shift toward friendlier digital asset rules.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has selected several cryptocurrency executives to serve on its newly created Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC).
This development comes as the agency, led by Chair Michael S. Selig, continues to indicate that his administration plans to adopt a more permissive approach to regulating the digital asset industry.
IAC Appointee List Announced
Of the 35 members making up the panel, 20 are tied to companies involved in crypto, while at least five are involved in prediction markets. Among them are Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, and Polymarket architect Shayne Coplan.
“Today marks an important and energizing moment at the CFTC as the Innovation Advisory Committee takes shape,” said Selig in a Thursday press release.
Additional members include Anchorage Digital’s top executive, Nathan McCauley, Grayscale’s Peter Mintzberg, Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev, Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko, as well as Ripple chief Brad Garlinghouse, and Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong.
Executives at Paradigm, DraftKings, and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) were also included, together with representatives from traditional finance institutions such as Cboe, CME, Nasdaq, and the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), among other firms.
Selig said the main aim is to ensure America remains the home to the most transparent and well-regulated financial markets in the world.
“By bringing together participants from every corner of the marketplace, the IAC will be a major asset for the Commission as we work to modernize our rules and regulations for the innovations of today and tomorrow,” he added.
Market Innovation and Crypto Regulation Streamlining
The IAC, launched in January, replaces the Technology Advisory Committee (TAC), which previously provided guidance on how emerging technologies were affecting derivatives markets.
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The new body will serve as a resource on developments in derivatives and commodity markets, helping the Commission assess how innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain are reshaping financial systems and informing the development of adaptive regulatory frameworks.
The CFTC has also begun coordinating with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) through a joint initiative known as “Project Crypto.”
The effort is aimed at harmonizing regulatory approaches to digital asset markets, reducing jurisdictional overlap between the agencies, and providing clearer and more predictable rules for cryptocurrency companies operating in America.
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LIT surged 13% following a week of product updates.
LIT, the native token of decentralized perpetuals exchange Lighter, rose as much as 13% over the past 24 hours as the platform rolled out new trading features, including unified collateral accounts.
The token traded as high as $1.62, but has since retraced to $1.59, up just over 11% on the day, according to CoinGecko. However, LIT is still down around 50% from its launch price of above $3.
The price action follows a series of product updates from Lighter this week. On Thursday evening, the DEX launched new trading account types that let users switch to a unified collateral system for spot and perpetual futures trading.
The company explained in a post on X that this is the first phase in a set of upgrades aimed at allowing “arbitrary tokens” to be used as collateral on the platform. Lighter also added that the next step is the tokenization of LLP, the platform’s market-making vault.
Lighter currently has $925.8 million in total value locked (TVL) and ranks fourth among perpetual DEXs by daily trading volume, according to DeFiLlama. The platform has also accumulated more than 801,000 users and processed over 59 billion transactions, according to its explorer.
Earlier this week, Lighter also announced new markets, including Korean equity perpetual futures. The platform now offers contracts linked to Hyundai, Samsung, SK Hynix, and the Korean Composite index, with up to 10x leverage, according to a post on X.
The upgrades come as perpetual futures trading continues to heat up across decentralized finance (DeFi), with exchanges racing to capture market share. Competitors like Hyperliquid and Aster remain the largest players, with $5.1 billion and $1.86 billion in open interest (OI), according to DeFiLlama. As of Friday, Lighter’s OI stands at $782 million.
The current impasse over stablecoin yields in the U.S. Senate’s crypto market structure bill is now in writing, and the crypto side is holding the line on needing some forms of rewards for stablecoin users.
A White House meeting between Wall Street bankers and crypto executives hit a wall this week, despite officials in President Donald Trump’s administration urging the sides to find a compromise. The banks held their line that no stablecoin yield or reward is acceptable, arguing that such yields threaten the depository activity at the heart of the U.S. banking system, explaining their position in a one-page paper entitled “Yield and Interest Prohibition Principles.”
The Digital Chamber has now penned its own set of principles and began circulating it on Friday, defending the need for the section in the Senate Banking Committee’s draft bill that outlines a range of situations in which rewards could be acceptable. The latest document, obtained by CoinDesk, also says that the bankers’ request for a two-year study on stablecoins’ effect on deposits is acceptable, as long as it doesn’t come with an automatic regulatory rulemaking in response.
“We want to make the case known for policymakers that we do think this is a compromise,” said Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone, in an interview on Friday. With this document, the industry group is putting in writing that it’s willing to give up ground on anything that looks like an interest payment for static holdings of stablecoins, which would most closely resemble a bank savings account.
While the crypto sector has been pursuing stablecoin products allowed under last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, the bankers are trying to dial back that law with edits included in this pending Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. But the GENIUS Act represents the current law of the land, so Carbone suggested that his industry’s willingness to scrap rewards on stablecoin holdings is a significant concession, and the crypto companies should still be able to offer rewards when customers engage in transactions and other activity. Bankers should return to the table to talk again, he said.
“if they don’t negotiate, then the status quo is that just rewards continue as-is,” said Carbone, who suggested that his group’s wide membership — which includes banking members — can put it closer to the middle of the discussion. “If they do nothing and they continue to say, ‘We just want a blanket prohibition,’ this goes nowhere.”
He hopes the Digital Chamber’s new position paper can reset the negotiations that have halted progress on the legislation since an 11th-hour disagreement derailed a hearing on the bill in the banking panel a month ago.
“Hopefully we can be the voice or the middle man who helps drive this conversation once again, because we are the one trade that represents both sides,” Carbone said.
The Digital Chamber’s principles on Friday highlighted two particular reward scenarios it wanted protected – those tied to providing liquidity and those fostering ecosystem participation. The group argued those two provisions of the draft bill’s Section 404 are especially important in decentralized finance (DeFi).
The White House is said to have called for a compromise by the end of this month. So far, the bank side hasn’t seemed to budge in repeated meetings, though Trump crypto adviser Patrick Witt said in a Friday interview with Yahoo Finance that another gathering may be scheduled for next week.
“We’re working hard to address the issues that were raised,” Witt told Yahoo Finance, saying he’s encouraged both sides to bend on the details.
“It’s unfortunate that this has become such a big issue,” he said, because the Clarity Act isn’t really about stablecoins, which was more appropriately the business of the already-passed GENIUS Act. “Let’s use a scalpel here to address this narrow issue of idle yield,” he added.
The Senate Agriculture Committee has already passed its own version of the Clarity Act, which focused on the commodities side of the ledger, while the Senate Banking Committee’s version is more about securities. If the banking panel follows its agriculture counterparts, it’ll advance the bill along partisan lines. But if a final bill is to eventually be approved in the entire Senate, it’ll need a lot of Democratic support to clear the chamber’s 60-vote margin.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $69,482 on Friday, and the rally coincided with data showing steady accumulation from smaller-sized holders in February.
Analysts say the breakout may evolve into a broader bullish trend, although other data suggest that a longer period of price consolidation will underlie the emerging bull trend.
Key takeaways:
-
BTC broke above the $69,000 resistance and its descending channel, triggering $92 million in short liquidations within four hours.
-
Small wallets added $613 million in February, while the whale wallets stalled with $4.5B billion in outflows.
-
Short-term holder profit-ratio indicator hit its lowest level since November 2022, underscoring weak sentiment over the past few weeks.
Will the Bitcoin relief rally last?
Bitcoin has pushed above the upper boundary of its descending channel and retested $69,000. The move marks a potential bullish break of structure (BOS), if BTC holds above $68,000.
If BTC holds above this reclaimed level, the next internal liquidity zones sit near $71,500 and $74,000. The 50 and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) are now compressing beneath the price on the one-hour chart, reinforcing the possibility of the short-term momentum continuing.
The latest price surge triggered roughly $96 million in futures liquidations over the past four hours, with nearly $92 million coming from short positions, signaling a short squeeze on bearish traders.
BTC liquidations were primarily concentrated on Bybit (22.5%), Hyperliquid (22%), and Gate (15%), suggesting these platforms account for a significant share of active leveraged positioning in the market.
Related: Multi-day negative Bitcoin funding signals ‘overcrowded’ short trade: Reversal coming?
BTC retail investor demand backs the breakout
The breakout is supported by the steady buying from the smaller-sized investors. Order flow data from Hyblock shows that the small wallets ($0–$10,000) have accumulated roughly $613 million in cumulative volume delta (CVD) in February, consistently bidding during the price correction.
The mid-sized wallets ($10,000–$100,000) remain around -$216 million for the month, but the cohort added roughly $300 million since BTC fell below $60,000, suggesting selective accumulation during discounted periods.
Whale wallets ($100,000 and above) saw their CVD bottom near -$5.8 billion earlier in February and have since moved sideways. This stabilization implies that the aggressive distribution has paused, though a clear accumulation trend from the large holders has yet to emerge.
For the rally to continue, whale buying may need to return, and the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) may need to move back above 1, signaling that the recent buyers are no longer selling at a loss.
Notably, the short-term holder SOPR recently fell to its lowest level since November 2022, indicating that many recent buyers have been realizing losses, a sign that conviction may remain fragile despite the rebound.
Related: Bitcoin passes $69K on slower US CPI print, but Fed rate-cut odds stay low
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Binance has fired at least five members of its compliance investigations team after they internally flagged more than $1 billion in transactions allegedly tied to Iranian entities, according to Fortune.
The transactions reportedly took place between March 2024 and August 2025. As reported, they were routed using Tether’s USDT stablecoin on the Tron blockchain.
USDT on Tron: A Familiar Pattern For Iran?
The firings allegedly began in late 2025. Several of the dismissed staff had law enforcement backgrounds and held senior investigative roles.
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Fortune reported that at least four additional senior compliance staff have also left or been pushed out in recent months.
The reported $1 billion in flows were denominated in USDT and moved across the Tron network. That combination has repeatedly appeared in recent sanctions enforcement actions involving Iran-linked activity.
Earlier this month, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges, Zedcex and Zedxion. It’s alleged that the exchanges processed nearly $1 billion in transactions tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
According to OFAC and blockchain analytics reporting cited by TRM Labs and Chainalysis, much of that activity also involved USDT on Tron.
Separately, BeinCrypto reported in January that Iran’s central bank accumulated more than $500 million in USDT amid pressure on the Iranian rial. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said the purchases likely aimed to secure hard-currency liquidity outside the traditional banking system, effectively creating a parallel dollar reserve.
Taken together, these cases show how stablecoins—particularly USDT—have become central to Iran-linked cross-border financial flows.
Binance has not publicly confirmed that the alleged Iran-linked transactions violated sanctions laws, nor has any regulator announced new enforcement action against the company related to this reporting.
However, the episode unfolds amid broader scrutiny of stablecoin infrastructure and the role of exchanges in geopolitical sanctions regimes.
David Princay, the president of Binance’s France arm, was targeted by armed robbers on Thursday just hours before the same gang attacked an unnamed crypto entrepreneur at their home.
According to local media, three men broke into Pincay’s Val-de-Marne apartment, eventually fleeing with two mobile phones.
The robbers reportedly tried to continue their spree hours later, this time targeting a home in the commune of Vaucresson that belonged to a crypto entrepreneur.
After gaining access to the house, they beat the entrepreneur with their guns before fleeing.
Police were able to track the stolen phones to this second address and discovered that the attackers had used the same vehicle used in the Princay raid in their other escapades.
The three were subsequently tracked to the city of Lyon, where they were arrested.
The attacks appear to have been poorly planned as, during the raid on Princay’s home, the robbers had to force other residents living in the same building to point them towards his apartment.
Also, during the second raid, a woman reportedly overheard the robbers questioning their own directions, saying, “The address isn’t right,” and “Stéphane lives at number 41.”
Since the attacks, Binance CEO Richard Teng has confirmed that the “[French colleague] and his family are safe and working closely with law enforcement.”
Read more: French government gives crypto entrepreneurs priority police line
Binance’s Princay joins list of crypto victims in France
France has become known for crypto-specific robberies in which criminals rush wealthy investors and physically intimidate them into giving up their crypto.
A French tax agent who passed the details of crypto entrepreneurs and other authoritative individuals to criminal gangs saw her prison appeal rejected last month.
In that same month, another victim was tied up by three masked men who were looking for her partner’s USB stick, which contained access to his cryptocurrency.
Last year, the alleged ringleader of a series of crypto-related kidnappings in France was arrested in Morocco. They’re suspected of orchestrating the kidnapping of Ledger CEO David Balland.
Read more: French crypto tax firm targeted in ShinyHunters extortion attempt
After months of kidnappings, France’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau promised the industry that it would have priority access to emergency police services, amongst other security measures.
Retailleau said, “These repeated kidnappings of professionals in the crypto sector will be fought with specific tools, both immediate and short-term, to prevent, dissuade and hinder in order to protect the industry.”
Web3 Operational Security researcher Pablo Sabbatella warned crypto investors that they shouldn’t have “direct access” to their funds.
He said, “If you just have a Ledger with millions sitting in it, you are eventually gonna lose it all,” adding that “Multisigs, Shamir, time delays, geographic distribution and other systems will protect your assets.”
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) kicked off Friday’s session with a modest smile, boosted by a softer-than-expected January CPI print that renewed appetite for risk assets. Traders priced in cooler inflation while keeping a wary eye on the path of policy, with the largest cryptocurrency carving a path toward notable resistance as the CPI data circulated. At one point, BTC rose by as much as 4% intraday, with the benchmark token trading near the $69,000 region on Bitstamp as traders assessed how the inflation backdrop could shape Federal Reserve expectations in the near term.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin surged on the back of a January CPI print that cooled beyond expectations, lifting BTC/USD toward the $69,000 level on Bitstamp and signaling renewed momentum in the short run.
- Core CPI matched estimates at 2.5% while the overall CPI printed 2.4%, both softer than anticipated, fueling a broad risk-on swing across macro assets.
- Market odds of aggressive Fed easing remained limited, with CME FedWatch showing slim chances of a rate cut at the March meeting, complicating the path for a sustained breakout.
- Analysts highlighted a confluence of technical references around the 68,000–69,000 area, including the old 2021 all-time high and the 200-week EMA, as a potential higher-low anchor for BTC.
- Gold climbed toward a symbolic milestone while the US dollar index attempted a recovery after the CPI release, underscoring a mixed but constructive macro backdrop for risk assets.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The CPI surprise propelled Bitcoin higher, with daily gains peaking near 4% and the price testing the $69,000 vicinity on major venues such as Bitstamp.
Market context: The inflation print fed into a broader narrative where macro assets showed a tempered response to cooling inflation, even as rate-cut expectations remained guarded and positioned around the mid-year horizon. Traders watched for durably slowing inflation signals to justify an acceleration in risk-taking, while acknowledging that policymakers may still stride cautiously given a resilient labor market and evolving growth dynamics.
Why it matters
The January CPI outcome reinforces a delicate balance in which inflation is trending lower, but policymakers are unlikely to rush the rate-cut cycle. The data echo a pattern observed in recent weeks: inflation metrics are trending toward multi-year lows, yet the Federal Reserve’s reaction function remains data-dependent. For BTC and the broader crypto market, softer inflation can translate into improved liquidity and a more forgiving risk environment, which historically tends to favor speculative assets and risk-sensitive sectors.
From a technical standpoint, traders are watching key price zones that have previously served as turning points. The 68,000–69,000 zone is notable because it intersects with the 2021 all-time high and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level analysts have cited as an anchor for potential higher-lows in the near term. Several market participants described BTC as consolidating in a potential falling-wedge pattern, a setup that could precede another leg higher if momentum builds. A recent update from a prominent trader noted that an initial breakout attempt at around the 68,000 level faced resistance, reinforcing the idea that the next meaningful move would likely be defined by how the market handles that zone.
Beyond BTC, macro gold also flirted with significant levels, highlighting a broader risk-on mood among non-crypto assets as the CPI narrative evolved. The U.S. dollar index found some footing after the initial CPI dip, a dynamic that can influence risk appetite across asset classes, including digital assets. In this environment, BTC’s performance could act as a barometer for market demand for risk assets and for investors seeking hedges or diversifiers amid evolving macro signals.
One notable thread in the commentary around the CPI release was the consideration of future Fed policy moves. While some market observers argued that a rate cut could become more plausible if inflation continues to ease, others cautioned that a single data print does not alter the central bank’s reaction function overnight. A widely cited dashboard showed that probability of a March rate cut remained in the minority, underscoring the challenge for crypto bulls to sustain a sustained breakout without clearer signs of easing monetary policy. In a related thread, a market observer referenced a lower-bound view on policy shifts, suggesting that the inflation trajectory would need to demonstrate sustained deceleration before a meaningful shift in rate expectations could be priced in. Investors also weighed a perspective opposing the surprise: that a temporary CPI softness might simply reflect statistical quirks rather than a durable downward trend.
For traders who have been watching the narrative unfold, the CPI surprise did not fully resolve the tug-of-war between risk-on optimism and the structural caution that has characterized crypto markets for much of the past year. While BTC’s intraday rally underscored renewed enthusiasm, many participants stressed that the long-term trajectory would hinge on the Fed’s path and on the sequencing of economic data in the coming weeks. A closing thought from a market commentator who tracks inflation data and policy expectations noted that, even with a favorable inflation print, the real test lies in whether inflation can stay on a downward trajectory long enough to alter policy expectations meaningfully.
The CPI data’s impact on the market narrative can be glimpsed through the lens of the related coverage around inflation dynamics and policy. For readers seeking concrete context, the CPI release is documented by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the associated commentary on how core and headline readings evolved. The market’s reaction to the data is also shaped by how traders interpret the probability of future rate actions, as reflected in tools that gauge Fed expectations. Additionally, analysts cited external inflation trackers and independent assessments to illustrate the nuanced view of inflation risk in the current environment. For a broader sense of sentiment, the community’s discussions surrounding the CPI data and Fed policy provide a snapshot of how this turning point is perceived by traders and researchers alike, including conversations that reference alternative inflation metrics as a lens to evaluate CPI outcomes.
The narrative also includes perspectives from traders active in social channels, where analysts often cross-reference inflation data with on-chain signals and technical indicators. A notable thread tied to the CPI release highlighted the idea that the CPI decline, while supportive, is not a decisive turn; rather, it is part of a broader sequence that could unfold across the next several weeks as the market calibrates its expectations for policy, liquidity, and macro risk appetite. The ongoing dialogue among market participants underscores the importance of keeping a close watch on how the inflation data evolves and how policy guidance evolves in response, as those dynamics will continue to influence BTC’s trajectory and the crypto market more broadly.
For readers who want to explore the underlying data themselves, the CPI release and the market’s interpretation of it are widely covered in real-time feeds and official releases. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the primary figures, while market data platforms and analysis from research shops offer additional context on how these numbers translate into rate expectations, liquidity, and risk sentiment. In the eyes of many traders, the CPI print is less a singular event than a datapoint in an ongoing process—one that will shape the tempo and nature of crypto market movements in the weeks to come.
TradingView BTCUSD chart shows the intraday velocity, while the CPI context remains anchored by the U.S. CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a contemporaneous note, a widely circulated tweet from market analyst Andre Dragosch referenced Truflation’s sub-1% CPI readings as supporting evidence for a less aggressive inflation profile than some conventional measures imply. The exchange between traditional data and alternative inflation metrics continues to shape expectations around rate moves and cross-asset correlations.
In sum, the CPI surprise injected a tactical lift for Bitcoin, but the broader path remains a function of policy expectations, liquidity conditions, and the ongoing assessment of inflation trends. As the market digests the data, traders will be watching for a softening CPI to translate into a more explicit willingness to price in rate cuts—and with that, a more durable upside for BTC and the broader crypto complex.
Earlier coverage noted the delicate balance between momentum and resistance around the $68,000–$69,000 zone, a region that has historically defined the near-term tempo of BTC price action. The narrative continues to evolve as macro conditions, policy signals, and on-chain fundamentals interact in real time.
For additional context and data points discussed during the CPI reaction, see the related notes and coverage linked throughout this timeline, including references to the FedWatch tool and broader market commentary that has tracked the shifting probability of rate cuts in the March horizon.
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